Another round of strong winds and locally heavy rain is possible in #Ireland and the #UK Sunday night and Monday. Risk for wind gusts in excess of hurricane force (74 mph/ 119 km/h).

Very good chance for new tropical development in the Philippine Sea next week. Also, watch for tropical development off northern or northwestern #Australia later the week of 8 December.

Severe TS #Koto will remain slow-moving over the next few days then may drift west into #Vietnam around midweek. Former CS #Senyar is now a depression just east of #Malayasia. The storm will remain weak, short-lived & minimal threat to land.

Cyclonic Storm #Ditwah is near #SriLanka & is moving north-northwest. Ditwah will spread areas of heavy rain from Sri Lanka, #TamilNadu & #Puducherry to #AndhraPradesh over the next few days.

Happy Thanksgiving to all that are celebrating.

Cyclonic Storm #Ditwah has formed near #SriLanka & will spread rain, some heavy, from #TamilNadu & #Puducherry to #AndhraPradesh Friday into early next week. Strong wind gusts are possible in Puducherry & eastern Tamil Nadu.

A ridge near the Mariana Islands weakening & pushing east coupled with a trough moving through eastern #Asia will result in #Koto stalling over the South China Sea the next several days. Koto may resume a westward drift early next week.

A strengthening storm passing south of #Iceland will bring strong winds to the northern coast of #Ireland, #Scotland, the Shetland and Faroe Islands Thursday afternoon into Friday. Wind gust to hurricane force (119 km/h or 74 mph) are expected.

A strengthening storm passing south of #Iceland will bring strong winds to the northern coast of #Ireland, #Scotland, the Shetland and Faroe Islands Thursday afternoon into Friday. Wind gust to hurricane force (119 km/h or 74 mph) are expected.

#Senyar is now a deep depression in NE Sumatra & will remain slow-moving with heavy rain in #Sumatra, #Malaysia & #Singapore through Friday. The deep depression near Sri Lanka will continue to bring heavy rain to #SriLanka into Friday, then SE #India Friday into early next week.

#Koto is now a typhoon over the South China Sea and is slowing. The storm will stall and meander over the next few days before possibly impacting #Vietnam early next week.

The latest weekly Indian Ocean Dipole index has rebounded to -0.6°C but is still below the the negative IOD threshold of -0.4°C. The -IOD has been steadily weakening in November with a neutral IOD likely to return in early December.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains favorable for new tropical development in the Philippine Sea next week, especially if equatorial Rossby wave moves through the sea as forecast.

A storm in the North Atlantic will bring strong winds to #Scotland & the #ShetlandIslands Thursday & Friday. Gusts can exceed hurricane force (119 km/h or 74 mph). Meanwhile, accumulating snow is likely in central & northeast #Poland into #Lithuania Wednesday into Thursday.

Severe Tropical Storm #Koto/#Verbena is moving west over the South China Sea. The storm will stall & weaken east of #Vietnam Friday into the weekend but is still expected to bring heavy rain & flooding to Vietnam early next week.

Cyclonic Storm #Senyar has formed in the Strait of Malacca & will remain slow-moving with heavy rain in #Sumatra, #Malaysia & #Singapore through Friday. A well-marked low will continue to bring heavy rain to #SriLanka into Friday, then SE #India Friday into Monday.

The tracks for all landfalling TCs into #Australia in November since 1970, including #Fina which made landfall on 21 November, 2025.

We now have Tropical Storm #Koto/#VerbenaPH near northern #Palawan in the western #Philippines. The storm will continue to track west but can slow this weekend & can reach southern #Vietnam early next week.

A shortwave can bring the risk of severe thunderstorms & areas of heavy rain to #Paraguay & southeast #Brazil early next week. Isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out.

TD 33W/#Verbena is moving away from the #Philippines & will eventually impact #Vietnam early next week. The MJO & an equatorial Rossby wave can lead to new tropical development in the Philippine Sea in early December.

There is now a depression in the Strait of Malacca & can strengthen before moving into southern #Thailand late this week. A low near #SriLanka will strengthen as it moves NNW over the next few days. This low can impact eastern #India this weekend or early next week.

Former TC #Fina will continue to bring rain, some heavy, to the northeast #Kimberley region of #Australia into Wednesday, local time.

Tropical Depression #Verbena is over the Sulu Sea and will pass over northern #Palawan Tuesday night, then can become a tropical storm in the South China Sea later Tuesday night or Wednesday. The storm can eventually make landfall in southern #Vietnam early next week.

A cyclonic storm is likely to form in the Bay of Bengal later this week. Watching a low forming near #SriLanka & another low in the southern Andaman Sea. Varied solutions & tracks so details unclear but eventual impacts on eastern #India or #Bangladesh appear likely.

Severe Tropical Cyclone #Fina is pushing into the northeast #Kimberley coast & will rapidly weaken over land Monday night & Tuesday, local time. However, areas of heavy rain are likely in the northeast Kimberley region through midweek.

A TD, known as Verbena in the Philippines, has formed off NE #Mindanao. The depression will cross the southern and central #Philippines before reaching the South China Sea Tuesday night or Wednesday, local time.

A front will lead to locally strong thunderstorms from the Brazilian states of #Parana & #SaoPaulo to #MinasGerais & #RiodeJaneiro later Sunday & Monday. A subtropical low may form off Rio de Janeiro Tuesday or Wednesday.

Low pressure organizing near #Palau will bring areas of heavy rain to portions of the #Philippines Monday through Wednesday, local time. The low can become a tropical storm around Visayas, the Sulu Sea or in the South China Sea early next week.

A cyclonic storm is likely to form in the Bay of Bengal later this week. Watching a low forming near #SriLanka & another low in the southern Andaman Sea. Varied solutions & tracks so details unclear but eventual impacts on eastern #India appear likely.

Severe TC #Fina is in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and is a Cat 4 on the Australia scale or a Cat 3 hurricane equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fina is expected to rapidly weaken near the Kimberley coast early next week but heavy rain and flooding will remain a threat.

Low pressure over the southern Andaman Sea will intensify into a depression as it moves toward the southeast Bay of Bengal. The storm is expected to become a cyclonic storm before affecting eastern #India late next week or in early December.

A tropical low will form in the southern Andaman Sea this weekend, then gradually strengthen as it moves west-northwest. The low will likely strengthen to at least a cyclonic storm before impacting eastern #India late next week.

Raider Revolution handed these out to the substitute teachers at the high school today. Happy Substitute Teacher Appreciation Day to my fellow substitutes.

Tropical Cyclone #Fina is about to cross Cobourg Peninsula and Tiwi Islands Friday night, CAST. Fina will pass near or north of #Darwin late Saturday or Saturday night.

For those making a fuss about Arabic numerals on social media. Arabic numerals, or more precisely, Hindu-Arabic numbers, were invented in India in the 5th century and then spread, becoming the numbers we use every day. Everyone in the US has been learning Arabic numbers since the nation's creation.

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remaining stalled in phase 6 could result in tropical development in the vicinity of the #Philippines this weekend or early next week. Regardless there cane be areas of heavy rain in portions of the Philippines early next week.

Strong piece of energy digging into the Mediterranean Sea next week does raise concerns for the possibility of a medicane late next week.

A fresh low will form in the southeast Bay of Bengal this weekend and can strengthen to a cyclonic storm before possibly impacting eastern #India later next week.

Tropical Cyclone #Fina is starting its turn to the south & is expected to make landfall along the #TopEnd coast Friday night or Saturday, CAST. TC #Ines holds the record for the earliest landfalling cyclone in Australia with landfall 21 Nov, 1973.

Moist onshore flow will continue to produce areas of heavy rain in south-central #Vietnam into Saturday, local time. The heaviest rain & severe flooding will continue in Binh Dinh, Phu Yen & Khanh Hoa provinces. Over 600 mm (24 inches) of rain has already fallen since Sunday.

Risk of tropical development in the western Philippine Sea this weekend or early next week. There is a risk of impacts in the #Philippines early next week. Potential for additional development near the Mariana Islands next weekend or early Dec.

Area of low pressure near #Lakshadweep will remain weak as it drifts west. A fresh low will form in the southern Bay of Bengal this weekend & can strengthen to a cyclonic storm before approaching #AndhraPradesh later next week.

TC Fina is north-northeast of #Darwin and is forecast to make landfall on Saturday which would make it the 2nd earliest landfalling TC into #Australia just behind Ines in 1973.

Tropical Cyclone #Fina has formed in northern #Australia and is forecast to make landfall in the #TopEnd on Saturday, local time. This would make Fina the second earliest landfalling cyclone in Australia since the satellite era began in 1970. TC Ines in 1973 is the earliest.

Latest APEC multi-model ensemble continues to favor the development of #ElNino in late 2026. Weak #LaNina conditions will quickly fade over the next couple of months.

The cold pattern in #Europe this week will result in accumulating snow in #Scotland & northern #England. Snowpack will build in the #Pyrenees, #Alps & Dinaric Alps this week.

Low pressure near the southern tip of India will enhance rain in far southern #India into Wednesday as it drifts into the southeast Arabian Sea. A new low will form in the southern Bay of Bengal this weekend, then can impact southern India next week.

Tropical low 02U off northern #Australia is expected to strengthen to a tropical cyclone before making landfall in the Top End around Friday or Saturday, local time.

Latest Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) weekly index is up to -0.99°C for the week ending 16 Nov. The IOD is expected to return to neutral in December.