A slow-moving tropical low will continue to produce rain in the Australian Outback. A trough will interact with this low to produce rain, some heavy, in southeast #Australia this weekend into early next week.

Watching for tropical development near #Vanuatu late next week. Conditions can become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation around the Cape York Peninsula &/or off northwest #Australia in early March.

Moderate Tropical Storm #Horacio can strengthen to a severe TS or tropical cyclone by the time it passes east of #Rodrigues Island on Monday. The outer bands can bring some rain to the island; otherwise the storm will be minimal threat to land.

A positive North Atlantic Oscillation will maintain the wet pattern across #Ireland and the #UK through the coming week. Overall drier across southern and eastern #Europe.

Scattered rains will continue in #SriLanka, #TamilNadu, #Puducherry & #Kerala into Tuesday with isolated showers from #AndhraPradesh to #WestBengal. A WD can bring rain and snow showers to northern #Pakistan and northwest #India late next week.

Moderate Tropical Storm #Horacio continues to track southwest & will pass east of #Rodrigues Island as a tropical cyclone early next week.

Negative PNA & positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will help keep extreme cold from returning to eastern #NorthAmerica through next week. The +NAO will also result in a wet pattern across the #UK, #Ireland & northern #Europe through the end of the month. Drier in S Europe.

Moderate Tropical Storm #Horacio has formed in the southern Indian Ocean & can strengthen to a tropical cyclone this weekend. Horacio will pass near or just east of #Rodrigues Island early next week.

The Quasi-biennial Oscillation at 50 mb was E since July 2025 which usually favors more tracks toward #Japan. This was negated by the W shift of the genesis region in the West Pacific. Watch the timing of the descending W phase as the genesis area expands E with expected #ElNino.

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Latest from the APEC Climate Center showing a good chance for #ElNino conditions developing this summer. Also, some signs of a weak to moderate positive Indian Ocean Dipole forming later in boreal summer/austral winter.

Rain, some heavy, will continue in #SriLanka into Monday. Some rain is expected in #TamilNadu, #Puducherry & #Kerala late Friday or Saturday into Monday. A western disturbance can lead to rain & snow showers in N #Afghanistan, N #Pakistan & NW #India Wednesday into Thursday.

Risk of severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain in western and central #SouthAfrica into southern #Botswana and southern #Namibia Sunday and Monday as a strong trough pushes into the region.

The storm track in #Europe has shifted north resulting in a drier pattern across much of the #IberianPeninsula, but the wet pattern will continue across the #UK & #Ireland through at least the end of February.

Zone of disturbed weather in the southern Indian Ocean is expected to become a moderate tropical storm over the next couple of days. The storm should pass east of #Rodrigues Island early next week and be minimal threat to land.

A vigorous trough will bring the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms to western and central #SouthAfrica Sunday into Monday.

A weak low in the southwest Bay of Bengal will continue to bring rain, some heavy, to #SriLanka into Monday. Some rain is expected in #TamilNadu, #Puducherry & #Kerala in southern #India later Friday into Monday.

A digging trough will bring snow, some heavy, to Italian Alps, including the #Olympic ski venues, on Thursday. Rain is expected below 600-900 meters (2,000-3,000 feet). including #Milano.

A tropical low in northwest #Australia will remain slow-moving with areas of heavy rain in the area through Friday. Moisture & energy from this low will be absorbed by a trough/front to bring some rain to southeast Australia later Saturday & Sunday.

Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) & South Pacific Meridional Mode (SPMM) coming into phase with each other, both warming, is a good sign for #ElNino conditions returning later this year.

A ridge building over #Morocco & the Iberian Peninsula will bring a spell of drier weather to western #Europe this weekend into early next week. There is the potential for a windstorm around #Ireland, the #UK & #France around next Tuesday/Wednesday.

A western disturbance will continue to produce areas of rain in #Pakistan & northwest #India into Wednesday. A low in the south-central BOB will bring rain, some heavy, to #SriLanka through Sunday. Some rain in #TamilNadu, #Puducherry & #Kerala later Friday through Sunday.

A strong trough will bring the risk of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms to southern #Namibia, southern #Botswana & central #SouthAfrica later Sunday & Monday.

Shear is taking its toll on #Gezani south of #Madagascar & the storm will dissipate over the next few days. Another tropical low is forming southeast of #DiegoGarcia & can become a tropical storm later this week. This new feature should be minimal threat to land.

Warm sub-surface waters continue to work to the surface in the central and eastern equatorial #Pacific as #LaNina gradually fades. Good chance #ElNino conditions develop in late boreal spring or summer.

A fresh shot of cold air into northeast #China & the Korean Peninsula is expected Sunday & early next week. A shortwave passing south can result in some snow in #SouthKorea, including #Seoul, early next week.

Severe TS #Gezani will pass south of #Madagascar over the next couple of days. Conditions will be favorable for new tropical development south to southeast of #DiegoGarcia late this week. Any storm that forms should be minimal threat to land.

A ridge building over #Morocco & the Iberian Peninsula will bring a spell of drier weather to western #Europe this weekend into early next week.

A western disturbance will bring rain & snow showers to northern #Pakistan & northwest #India Tuesday & Wednesday. A brewing area of convection in the BOB will bring some rain to #SriLanka from Tuesday & southern India late this week.

A slight northward shift of the storm track in western #Europe early next week with the potential for a windstorm in #Ireland, the #UK, #France and northwest #Spain around midweek.

#Genzai is being steering away from #Mozambique by the front and trough in eastern #SouthAfrica.

Yes, I did. I finished my college education a full 6 years and was in my 5th year as a meteorologist before Google was founded in 1998.

A fresh western disturbance can lead to rain/snow showers in #Afghanistan, N #Pakistan & NW #India on Monday into Tuesday. A weak low can form in the southern Bay of Bengal next week with some rain in #SriLanka & southern India late next week & next weekend.

The trough approaching #CapeTown will divert #Gezani eastward away from mainland #Africa this weekend. The trough is also expected to bring severe thunderstorms with flooding downpours, hail and damaging wind gusts to eastern #SouthAfrica & #Eswatini on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone #Gezani will bring heavy rain, flooding and damaging winds to southern #Mozambique Friday afternoon into Saturday, local time.

The trough expected to divert #Gezani eastward away from Africa this weekend can trigger strong to severe thunderstorms in eastern #SouthAfrica and #Eswatini on Saturday.

A WD can lead to rain/snow showers in #Afghanistan, N #Pakistan & NW #India Friday & again Monday into Tuesday. A low can form in the S Bay of Bengal next week with some rain in #SriLanka & S India late next week & next weekend.

A ridge building into #Morocco will bring a welcomed spell of drier weather to #Spain and #Portugal for a time next week.

#Gezani has reached intense TS intensity in the Mozambique Channel & will reach tropical cyclone strength late Thursday or Thursday night, local time. Gezani will bring flooding rains & damaging winds to southern #Mozambique later Friday & Saturday.

A stalled front, a pair of shortwaves & a moist onshore flow will produce heavy rain & areas of flooding in southern #Queensland, including #Brisbane, & northern #NewSouthWales Friday into Sunday, local time.

#Gezani is over the #Mozambique Channel & has strengthened to a moderate TS. The storm can reach tropical cyclone intensity before brushing southern Mozambique Friday into Saturday. Heavy rain, flooding & damaging winds are likely in southern Mozambique.

Latest NMME & IMME continue to favor a transition to #ElNino in late boreal spring or summer. Also seeing signs of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole developing late in 2026.

The trough that will divert #Gezani eastward away from southern #Africa this weekend can trigger severe thunderstorms in eastern #SouthAfrica & #Eswatini on Saturday.

Depression #Gezani is over #Madagascar & will enter the Mozambique Channel Wednesday night, then will strengthen once over water. Gezani will brush southern #Mozambique as a TC with rain and gusty winds along the coast Friday & Saturday.

Low pressure is expected to form in the southern Bay of Bengal next week with the MJO pulse in the Indian Ocean. This low can bring rain back to #SriLanka & southern #India late next week & next weekend.

The front in S #Australia will lift northward over the next day or two, stalling near S #Queensland late Thursday. Heavy rain, strong thunderstorms & the risk of flooding in S Queensland, including #Brisbane, & N #NewSouthWales Thursday night through Sunday, local time.

The negative PNA will continue help keep Arctic air from returning in force to eastern #NorthAmerica over the next couple of weeks.

A weak WD can bring rain & snow showers to #Afghanistan, northern #Pakistan & northwest #India Friday into Saturday. An area of low pressure can form in the southern Bay of Bengal next week with rain possibly returning to #SriLanka & southern #India toward next weekend.

Good news for flooded areas of southern #Europe, #Morocco and northwest #Africa, a ridge building into Morocco will shift the storm track north of these areas next week.

Tropical Cyclone #Gezani will make landfall near #Toamasina, #Madagascar Tuesday afternoon or night, local time. Gezani will enter the #Mozambique Channel later Wednesday, then can brush southern Mozambique as a TC later Friday into Sunday.