A strong ridge will result in hot weather across much of #India next week.

#Sinlaku is now the first typhoon of the 2026 season & will continue to strengthen as it tracks NW. Sinlaku is expected to pass near #Guam as a category 4 hurricane equivalent Monday night or Tuesday, local time. The last typhoon to impact Guam was #Bolaven on 10 Oct, 2023.

The latest from the NMME & ECMWF climate models show a very strong #ElNino forming this boreal summer. Both also support a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in the ASO period. Indian summer monsoon rainfall is looking below normal.

The storm drifting into #Morocco is spreading #Saharan dust into #Spain & the #Balearic Islands. As the low lifts NE dust will reach southern #France Saturday, then dust will reach as far east as #Corsica, #Sardinia, #Sicily & parts of #Italy Saturday night or Sunday into Monday.

Showers & thunderstorms continue in the southern Arabian Peninsula. A shortwave will bring more thunderstorms, some strong, to eastern #SaudiArabia, #Qatar, #Bahrain & #UAE this weekend. A drier pattern across much of the Middle East next week, aside from storms in the Asir Mts.

Tropical Storm #Sinlaku has formed near #Truk, #Micronesia and will continue to strengthen as it tracks toward the WNW over the next few days. Sinlaku will become a very strong typhoon before passing near or just south of #Guam early next week.

Tropical Cyclone #Maila will pass near the eastern tip of Papua New Guinea Sunday night or Monday, local time. Maila is expected to make landfall over the Cape York Peninsula in northern #Queensland around midweek.

A storm moving into the central #Mediterranean Sea next week can result in a #Bora wind event down the Dinaric Alps to the coast of #Croatia & the Adriatic Sea around the middle of next week.

The storm nearing the Canary Islands is spreading #Saharan dust from NE #Morocco & NW #Algreria toward #Spain. Increasing amounts of dust in Spain & the Balearic Islands Fri & Sat. Some dust can reach S #France, #Corsica, #Sardinia, #Sicily & parts of #Italy Sun & Mon.

A building ridge over the Indian subcontinent will result in a drier and hotter pattern across #India next week, but still the risk of showers in #Kerala. #Delhi will likely see max temperatures 38°C or higher starting around Monday or Tuesday.

Rain & mountain snow showers will continue from #Turkey & N #Syria to N #Iraq & NW #Iran through the weekend. Thunderstorms in E #SaudiArabia, #Bahrain, #Qatar, #UAE & E #Oman will diminish tonight then another round of storms, some severe, in these areas this weekend.

#Vaianu is transitioning to an extra-tropical storm north of #NewZealand but will still bring heavy rain and damaging wind gusts to northern New Zealand late Saturday and Sunday, local time.

Severe Tropical Cyclone #Maila remains over the Solomon Sea & has begun slowly drifting westward. A slow west to west-southwest track is likely over the next few days. Maila is expected to impact the Cape York Peninsula in northern #Queensland early next week.

A storm dropping toward #Morocco & the Canary Islands will pull #Saharan dust northward into #Spain, #Portugal & the #Balearic Islands late Wed into the weekend. Saharan dust can reach parts of #France, #Sardinia & #Corsica this weekend.

A developing tropical low near #Micronesia is expected to become a depression or Tropical Storm #Sinlaku before passing near #Guam & the Northern Mariana Islands this weekend.

Rain and mountain snow showers will continue in northern #Afghanistan, northern #Pakistan, northwest #India and #Nepal into Saturday. A few showers are expected in southwest India through the weekend.

Isolated rain & mountain snow showers from #Turkey, #Syria & #Lebanon to N #Iraq & N #Iran into the weekend. Isolated thundershowers possible in the S Arabian Peninsula Wed/Thurs. Risk of thunderstorms, some strong, in central #SaudiArabia, #Bahrain, #Qatar, #UAE & E #Oman this weekend.

Severe TC #Vaianu is passing west of #Fiji & will track southward over the next few days. Vaianu will likely impact northern #NewZealand, including #Auckland, this weekend.

Severe TC #Maila remains over the Solomon Sea and is now the equivalent of a Cat 3 hurricane. Maila will eventually start track westward later Wednesday or Thursday, local time, then is expected to make landfall in northern #Queensland Saturday night or Sunday, local time.

Warm subsurface waters continue to migrate toward the surface in the central equatorial #Pacific, shrinking the cool pool in the ENSO 3.4 region. #LaNina fading with #ElNino likely developing over the coming months. Strong El Nino expected later this year.

Monitoring the blossoming area of convection around #Micronesia to organize into a depression then TS #Sinlaku over the next few days. The storm can bring heavy rain & gusty winds to #Guam & the Northern Mariana Islands this weekend into early next week.

Rain, mountain snow & thunder will continue in #Afghanistan, northern #Pakistan, parts of northern #India and #Nepal through midweek. A few rain and snow showers can linger from northern Afghanistan to #JammuKashmir and #Uttarkhand Thursday and Friday.

Isolated rain & mountain snow showers are expected from #Turkey, #Syria & #Lebanon to northern #Iraq & northern #Iran over the next several days. Risk of thunderstorms, some strong, in central #SaudiArabia, #Bahrain, #Qatar, #UAE & eastern #Oman this weekend.

A splitting trough & developing low aloft will bring some rain to #Portugal & parts of #Spain Monday night through Wednesday. The upper low can pull #Saharan dust into the Iberian Peninsula later this week.

There are now three TCs. #Indusa is no threat to land. #Maila will remain slow-moving in the Solomon Sea through midweek then can drift toward #Queensland late week. #Vaianu will bring rain & wind to #Fiji into Wednesday then may impact #NewZealand this weekend.

Happy Easter to all who celebrate!

Good chance for tropical development near #Micronesia next week. If we get a TS next week that would make 4 TS before 1 May. Going back to 1970, the only other seasons to produce at least 4 TS before 1 May were 2015, 2014, 1999, 1976 & 1971.

In addition to TCs #Indusa & #Maila, a strengthening MJO moving into phases 6 & 7 can spin up a TC between #Fiji & #Vanuatu in the next few days. Also, the potential for a TS near #Micronesia next week.

Tropical Cyclone #Maila has formed in the Solomon Sea & will remain slow-moving resulting in rain, some heavy, in the Solomon Islands & SE #PapuaNewGuinea through midweek. Maila can back west toward the Cape York Peninsula, # Queensland late next week or next weekend.

There is a good chance for tropical development in the vicinity of #Micronesia next week. Any system that forms could drift far enough west to bring some rain and wind to #Guam & the Northern Mariana Islands next weekend or early the following week.

Rain, thunder and mountain snow will continue in #Afghanistan, N #Pakistan and western into northern #India & #Nepal into Saturday. Another WD will bring more rain to these areas early next week. Isolated showers or thunder is possible in #Karachi Monday.

Tropical low 37U has formed in the Solomon Sea & will likely become a tropical cyclone this weekend. The storm will be very slow-moving into early next week then may drift west toward #Queensland later next week.

Extensive cloud of #Saharan dust in the eastern #Mediterranean, including #Cyprus and southern #Turkey. The dust cloud will reach #Syria, #Lebanon & #Israel later Friday then perhaps northern #Iraq Saturday.

A storm will bring the risk for heavy rain & strong thunderstorms to northeast #Argentina, including #BuenosAires, #Uruguay, including #Montevideo, eastern #Paraguay & Rio Grande do Sul, #Brazil early next week.

Madden-Julian Oscillation & equatorial Rossby Wave forcing can result in tropical development in the vicinity of the Federated States of #Micronesia in the northwest Pacific next week. #Guam & the Northern Mariana Islands should monitor for possible impacts late next week.

A strong WD will continue to produce rain, thunderstorms & mountain snow in #Afghanistan, #Pakistan, western & northern #India into #Nepal into Saturday. Another WD can bring more rain to these areas again early next week.

#Saharan dust cloud has reached #Cairo & eastern #Egypt. Areas of blowing sand and dust are possible across portions of the #MiddleEast, especially #Iraq & northern into central #SaudiArabia, later Thursday into Saturday.

A strengthening tropical low in the Solomon Sea will become a tropical cyclone over the next few days. The storm will remain slow-moving into early next week then may start to drift west toward #Queensland late next week.

Moderate Tropical Storm #Indusa has formed south of #DiegoGarcia and tracking southward. Indusa will pass east of #Mauritius so is not expected to be a threat to land.

Happy Passover to all who are celebrating!

Here is a #Bora or #Bura wind explanation. It is basically a north to northeast katabatic or downsloping wind due to cold air from the #Balkans descending the Dinaric Alps to the Adriatic Sea. The current round of Bora winds is courtesy of Storm #Erminio.

Monitoring for tropical cyclone formation west or northwest of #Fiji this weekend or early next week. Regardless, there can be areas of squally rains around Fiji & #Vanuatu this weekend & early next week.

#Bora winds have produced wind gusts past hurricane force (74 mph/119 km/h) along the coast of #Croatia. Bora winds will continue along the Croatian coast into the Adriatic Sea into Thursday morning.

A WD will continue to bring rain & thunderstorms from #Afghanistan & #Pakistan to W & N #India into the weekend. Rain, mountain snow & thunder is likely from #Turkey, #Syria, #Lebanon & #Israel to N #Iraq & NW #Iran later Wednesday into Friday.

A tropical low forming near the Solomon Islands can strengthen to a tropical cyclone this weekend. Any cyclone will move very slowly for a time next week but may eventually drift toward #Queensland late next week.

#Saharan dust cloud is over the Canary Islands.

Potential for a tropical cyclone to develop near the Solomon Sea & Solomon Islands late this week or weekend. Any cyclone should track westward & may impact #Queensland late next week.

A strong western disturbance near the Caspian Sea will bring rain, mountain snow & thunder to #Afghanistan, #Pakistan & western #India Wednesday into the weekend. Rain & thunder is possible around #Karachi Thursday, then a risk of showers around #Delhi later Friday or Saturday.

#Bora winds have begun along the coast of #Croatia into the northern Adriatic Sea and will continue into Thursday, local time. Wind gusts past hurricane force (74 mph/119 km/h) are likely.