I have finally put together my thoughts on the enormity of Friday morning's Texas flood. Mostly it is a meditation on the historical context of such a hyper-local flood killing 104 people, something that really hasn't happened in nearly 50 years. jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/07/07/h...

Comparing WPC's seven-day rain forecast to some significant regional flood events of the last thirty years. A major flood outbreak seems likely by mid-weekend from ArkLaTex to the OH Valley.

A new blog on what yesterday's tornado outbreak means in the broader context of high risk verification. jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/03/16/t...

Decreased visibility here in Madison with what I suspect is dust, lofted in west Texas and advected northeast. Very cool. Definitely doesn't have the typical wildfire smoke smell.

A new blog about 2011's tornado season. I wrote it over the weekend, but I've seen a few people referencing the April 27 super-outbreak recently, so feels an appropriate time to post. jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/03/11/t...

Top 20 tornado days, post-1950, by breadth of F3 tornado reports. This is defined as the size of a box drawn from the northwest to southeast that encompasses all intense tornadoes. This does not adjust for differences in longitude miles with latitude, sorry. Days with >3 F3 tornado reports included.

I believe the number of fatalities in Kentucky crossed 20 with yesterday’s reporting from the Governor. This is a large death toll for a flood, probably the largest in winter in many decades.

Seeing a couple flash flood emergencies already for the corner of WV/VA. Conditions should continue to worsen into the overnight, especially as convection strengthens and moves through hard-hit areas. This is a major ongoing cold-season flood event.

One of the largest D3 moderate risks I've ever seen now up for this threat. Suspect we could be seeing a high risk in E KY/WV tomorrow, we'll see.

It's rained up to 6+ inches in KY/WV over the last 14 days. Another 1-3 inches of rain and snow QPF expected over the work week. On Saturday, all of the snow melts, and 5-8+" of rain could fall locally with training storms somewhere in this region. Could be a good setup for substantial flooding.

I received a NYT alert earlier this afternoon with a push notification about Hurricane Helene and hurricane deaths in general. I thought the analysis was poor enough to warrant a blog with my thoughts. [updated with correct link] jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/08/b...

Twelve years ago tonight, southern New England's worst snowstorm since 1888. I measured 38" in my backyard in south-central Connecticut. It isn't the whole story, but I blame this storm for really igniting my interest in weather.

New blog post: a meditation on the most expensive weather events in US history jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/04/t...

Given government-wide cuts to funding and staffing, I have contacted my elected federal officials imploring them to protect NOAA and the NWS. I encourage you to do the same, especially if you use weather data, and especially if you work outside of the government.

A second blog post today, this one more personal than weather jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/01/w...

New blog post: quantifying the flooding of 2024 jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2025/02/01/t...

Thanks to Helene, September 2024 has become the month with the third most record crests in the national AHPS database.

Map of observed snowfall from the great Gulf Coast snow storm of 1895

An annual tradition- my top ten list of the year's weather events, ranked for a combination of atmospheric exceptionality and human impact. Check it out at my blog, which I'm thinking of re-activating: jacobweatherblog.wordpress.com/2024/12/30/w...

December 26th, 2004: A magnitude 9.1 earthquake near Sumatra, Indonesia, generated a tsunami that caused tremendous devastation throughout the Indian Ocean. The tsunami that followed killed more people than any other tsunami in recorded history, with 227,898 dead. www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazardimages...

Woke up to a decent amount of snow in northern Allegheny County, which was a pretty big surprise- apparently, some Erie bands targeted my location with extreme precision

Trend in seasonal snow totals (via gridded NOHRSC snow data) over the last 16 years. Sad!

Having some fun with NOHRSC gridded data

30.78 inches makes Helene one of the most prolific rain events ever recorded from a TC in the interior US. The only other hurricane to drop comparable rain in Appalachia- Camille- killed 150+ in Nelson County, VA. Helene dropped such rain over a considerably larger area.

Three years ago today, a defining and unforgettable weather event.

A flooding event seems increasingly probable in the interior Northeast on Wednesday as a strong inland cutter drags a strong atmospheric river over a snowpack containing 1-4" of liquid. Stratiform rain and snowmelt followed by a convective line is a classic recipe for a cold season flood.

The result:

Roaring winds off Lake Mendota, in Madison, propelling frigid waves that are coating James Madison Park with ice. Midwest cold fronts are next level.

exceptional amount of fire activity in the southeast amid today's dry, windy, mild conditions

the most disappointing thing finally happened to me #WinDohSeat

In honor of the last day of 2024's hurricane season, a plot of what's probably the year's most important data: totals and recurrence intervals of rainfall from Helene.

Last day of the 2024 hurricane season. As with all historic events, will take some time to process and accurately shelve. Milton and Helene were two of the most impressive TCs we’ve ever sensed in the Atlantic, for very different reasons.

Wondering why Yankee candle, surely the biggest candle-focused company in the country, only sells candles that smell bad

Wondering what this band of lake-effect-esque snow near Portage, WI is driven by? Perhaps a power plant/factory, or the Wisconsin River? Interesting either way

Saratoga, NY solidly overperforming under persistent banding and temps hanging around 32 all morning. Handful of cars off the road on roads largely unsalted and poorly plowed. Also, already seeing some large branches down from the weight of the snow.

Almost forgot- I actually have plotted snow totals from the 1950 blizzard, via SC ACIS data. Really incomprehensible breadth and magnitude of snow with this unusual, intense cyclone

Today marks 74 years since one of the most interesting and impactful weather events in North American history slammed the Northeast US. Extreme coastal wind and an immense interior blizzard accompanied by frigid temperatures killed nearly 400 people.

Spotted over a creek in Briarcliff Manor, NY!

November 21-22nd, 1992: The nearly uninterrupted activity saw over 60 tornadoes strike numerous states during day 2 of a massive outbreak. Four of the tornadoes in Mississippi, Georgia, and Kentucky were rated F4. 12 people were killed, and nearly 300 others were injured.

Looks like some pretty solid topographical enhancement to precipitation west of I87! Good setup with moist flow largely perpendicular to the terrain. Note that some returns here are contaminated by bright banding.

Does anybody actually understand the Storm Par business model in twisters

Pressure quickly dropping at a bouy offshore Washington as a powerful low deepens rapidly on approach. Dropping at ~3mb/20mins

This might be the first ever non tropical D3 high risk ERO?

your 20s is all about visualizing historic weather data

2025 will be the year of the canned sardine

Some cool imagery of Hurricane Carmen (1974) approaching its first peak in the Gulf of Honduras. The second and third image are from the VHRR instrument aboard some of NOAA’s early polar orbiting satellites — I had no idea this data existed with such high quality!!

Models honing in on a fascinating evolution for the first real mid-cont cyclone of the cold season; a compact but dramatic digging trough that turns a frontal wave into a <980mb low in less then 24 hours. Severe anomalies advected to the *south* may allow an Appalachian/ern OH valley blizzard.

Update: La Ceiba, Honduras, now reporting over 34 inches of total rainfall from #Sara. As pointed out by @agnes1972.bsky.social earlier, that matches their rain total from 1998's Hurricane Mitch. With rain rates of 2-3.5 inches an hour, they'll crush their Mitch total.

Not the sort of city I'd want to be in for feet of rain: the fanning floodplain of a river that drains steep mountains immediately inland. La Ceiba got 34.5" in Mitch.

A comfortable majority of forecast models continue to slowly loop Sara-to-be over/near coastal Honduras through the weekend, resulting in what may be the highest rainfall totals I've ever seen modeled for an Atlantic TC. The results could be devastating.