For my senior project, I've been making a model that forecasts the short-term probability of Convective Initiation. It's not available to the public yet, but I plan on open-sourcing it and making a real-time product using this model sometime in the near future.

When all you see is a stable green band, it can be hard to trust that the substorm is coming. Often, the long wait is just a charge-up that makes the show even more spectacular.

I’ll still be telling people about last night decades from now.

Ladies, gentlemen, and others, this is what it was all for. This is what every time we’ve spent on the side of a frigid dirt road with stubborn +25 Bz was for. This is what every single time we watched the CME impact at 7:00 AM was for.

Steam devils at sunrise, over Lake Thunderbird early this morning

It is wild how far a little bit of careful, intentional color grading can get you

It’s like driving a Lamborghini on the Information Superhighway.

I’m running on three hours of sleep and the wonder of nature baby

I work hard enough, I can give my code files silly names.

Hurricane Melissa's extreme Category 5 eyewall, rapid core disintegration over Jamaica, and subsequent rapid reintensification on approach to southeastern Cuba. Landfall is ongoing 20 mi/32 km west of Santiago de Cuba.

The clock has just about run out on Melissa’s restrengthening period as its eyewall approaches the Sierra Maestra mountains. Even though it’s still extremely dangerous, I’m happy to see it didn’t intensify as much as I feared it would.

Melissa is quite far out of force balance after reemerging from Jamaica. The sea-level pressure gradient as measured by recon suggests a wind speed of 104 mph, but their dropsonde only measured 78 mph. This disequilibrium may encourage rapid restrengthening, see below. (1/4)

I recommend anybody interested in donating uses the official website launched earlier today instead of the links I posted supportjamaica.gov.jm/donateq

Category 5 Hurricane Melissa made landfall today near Black River, Jamaica with 185 mph winds and is currently re-emerging near Falmouth. If you have the means, I strongly encourage you to consider donating to a relief effort. Direct Relief: donate.directrelief.org/give/647931#... (more below)

Upper-level cutoff low, slightly chilly, 85 MUCAPE is my favorite weather outside of chasing

Comet A6 Lemmon has gotten everybody's attention lately, but did you know there's a second comet in the sky right now? On Friday night, C/2025 R2 (SWAN) was faint and has no discernible tail, but that only let its fuzzy green coma shine more clearly.

Comet C/2025 A6 (Lemmon) near peak brightness on October 17! (see replies for visual binocular view)

I took this shot this morning, from 5-7 AM with the full moon bearing down on me the whole time. I wasn't able to pull the faint tail out this time. In a way, that emphasizes the vivid green coma, a gravitationally unbound cloud of glowing gas emitted from the cometary nucleus.

Full loop of the Fujiwhara effect between hurricanes Humberto and Imelda up to the present! I plan to update this with the rest of Imelda's lifespan as it drifts out of frame in 3-7 days.

Veil Nebula (Caldwell 33/34, NGC 6960/6992) [True Color] - September 25, 2025

If I could pick one place from my travels to go back to tomorrow, it’d be Sonoma, California.

Sunset pictures on the side of the highway are self care in times like these

September 8, 2025 - Shattuck, Oklahoma Yesterday wasn't just good for structure. It also had some great bolts after dark!

I love seeing the way the tail materializes out of thin air and the rush of the inflow into the stacked plates above.

While the contrast wasn't the best even with a lot of boosting, you can see the thin streaks of virga getting slung around the updraft.

Incredible structure yesterday in Laverne, Oklahoma! - September 8, 2025

Huge dust devil west of El Reno, Oklahoma at 3:25 PM CDT, just south of I-40 at mile markers 118-119 #okwx

August 24, 2025 - Reydon, Oklahoma Watch the forward-flank downdraft come crashing down on my position

August 24, 2025 - Kelton, Texas

Dial in GPS for southwest Kansas, end up going to the Texas Panhandle. Tale as old as time.

(1/2) Nobody asked, but I like Meade, KS the best right now. I’m not a big fan of the boundary orientation or how moist the 700s are, but it’s nothing to go home over.

I should drive out east more. Daisy, Oklahoma - August 20, 2025

Half-lit moons are great for seeing the texture in the Moon's mountains and craters

I love my kitty

It's my first time working on it since the big road trip, but my diffraction simulation side project is finally starting to get somewhere.

Did I ever tell any of y’all about the cat I accidentally adopted last month?

Fun shot with my new macro lens

I had a lot of fun but I also don’t wanna drive for the whole next week

The national park visit I didn’t know I needed

Paging @norcalstormchasing.bsky.social from Salina, Utah

One of the strangest-feeling parts of road tripping the US is watching Kroger change its name across different regions and otherwise staying exactly the same. I just learned that Smith’s is one of the names that Kroger can take.

All in a day’s drive

Utah is a lot like the way I thought Arizona would look

How have I been on the road for seventeen straight days now

Seen on my way from Old Faithful to Grand Teton

I’m running out of things to say about all the pretty places I’ve seen. Montana wow

Not chasing, just ended up here

What should I name him?

Interstate 90 in the Columbia River Valley is incredible