You can’t spell trace without “T”?! 🙄

Can we just admit that all of us storm chase as a hobby and not to “save lives”? Idk why that is so hard…Nothing wrong with having a hobby and safely and responsibly observing nature.

A pretty awesome mountain wave cloud at sunset:

A pretty gloomy (no pun intended) ensemble mean of 0.03" for DEN through tonight...Some hope in the medium range but I'd like for models to not back off again within 24-48 hours of the actual event.

How Friday afternoon is going… H/T @burgwx.bsky.social for the meme 😂

A whopping 0.04" in the nearest gauge from this precip event...🫠 #COwx

This has got to be one of my favorite moments of seeing cumulus mediocris and cumulus congestus from the air. Taken from somewhere over Central Texas on my way to Colombia back in 2016.

Wishing it was the warm season because this Denver Convergence Vorticity Zone would probably make things a bit more interesting if we had the moisture…⛈️🌪️

Why does Denton, TX have the same congressional representative as Texline, TX...

Praying for rain and trying to be optimistic but also not entirely optimistic that we will see much more than a sprinkle 🙃🙃

The meteorology program at Jackson State University was the first (and for many years only) undergrad meteorology program at a HBCU. They are celebrating 50 years as a program this week, and I talk about the program and being lucky enough to play a role in it. tinyurl.com/fhudehzt

Frustrating evening, so here is a picture of my cat Julio in the middle of head-bunting my wife yesterday

Just a bird getting a free ride across the Canadian border….

8 months ago I had a vision: what if we had a unified, track-based dataset of all severe events? Still a lot of improvements I can make to the algorithm itself, but otherwise, looks like we have one now. I can't wait to see what we can do with this 👀

When you’re stepping down the walkway, make sure to “Mind the Cat”

What if locals promote our beer as a “downslope-warmed Coors Light” ?

Awesome display of the release of KH instability (vertical shear instability) within an altostratus and altocumulus deck! I ❤️ clouds

Baseball = underrated sport. Coming from a lifelong baseball player and enthusiast.

A nearly one-week animation for Hurricane Melissa with infrared (IR) imagery on the left and its maximum wind speed (intensity) evolution on the right. The animation briefly pauses at landfall in Jamaica. IR images extend about 600 km from the center of the storm to illustrate its shape evolution.

Alrighty, ready to see something really cool? (and maybe a little nauseating) The evolution of Hurricane Melissa's mesovortices at peak strength.

(1/2) Classic cold air damming setup in the Carolinas today. Weak low-level upslope flow that is unable to surpass the higher terrain beneath isentropic ascent/warm advection resulting in a cold and soupy mess (aka drizzle, fog, and stratus).

Melissa at 892 mb. Since 1966, only 4 other North Atlantic hurricanes reached surface pressures below 900 mb (unit equal to hPa). Maximum winds at those pressures also listed below: Wilma (2005): 160 kt, 882 mb Gilbert (1988): 160 kt, 888 mb Rita (2005): 155 kt, 897 mb Allen (1980): 165 kt, 899 mb

The eye of Melissa is quickly becoming cloud-filled as it interacts with the higher terrain of Jamaica, resulting in some weakening of the storm. Still, the impacts have been and are going to be catastrophic.

That’s…not at all how this works. As the NHC’s wind field image shows, Jamaica is only experiencing tropical storm-force winds right now, with weaker winds elsewhere. The most widespread and longest-lasting impact has and will be extreme rain - for which the prep is rather different than wind.

One of those moments as a meteorologist where you can't help but admire the beauty of such a storm, but dreading and terrified of seeing the impacts to Jamaica and Cuba. A pretty awful situation about to unfold and thinking of Jamaica residents and I hope everyone is safe and okay.

It appears the earlier secondary eyewall merged with the primary eyewall quickly, similar what happened in Hurricane Milton. That merger may have paused intensification, but Melissa appears to be making its move to Cat. 5 tonight. Certainly has that look. Next set of recon. missions will be telling.

On a personal note, I married my best friend last week on a beach in Hawaii 😊

One thing I am watching closely tonight is the short-term motion of #Melissa. Google DeepMind ensemble has been pretty consistent in showing a WSW motion beginning tonight, & this appears supported by the ECMWF deep-layer steering-flow as the hurricane becomes vertically deep. Diagnosed below ⤵️

Microwave imagery also showing the formation of an eye/eyewall, with convection surrounding the storm center with the exception of the eastern portion of the storm. Central pressure should continue to tank especially as the eyewall becomes more symmetric. Thinking of the people in Jamaica and Cuba.

A rather ominous look to Melissa this evening, with deep convection beginning to symmetrize and what looks like a vortical hot tower now wrapping around the southern and eastern portion of the inner core. Latest recon data already shows minimum central pressure down to 972 mb.

Really glad to see this being implemented in Arapahoe County, which is a very long west-east county extending from Littleton-Deer Trail, CO and basically stretches through a common location for a Denver Convergence Vorticity Zone to setup (and has a high frequency of landspout tornadoes as a result)

!!! That was awesome !!!

...When the box score looks like Model Output Statistics...

John Olerud or Edgar Martinez as a pinch runner?

Are the Mariners the new Cubs? The new Cubs of the American League? We defer to RFK Jr. for all the correlation and evidence

Small potatoes given everything going on, but I really just want the Seattle Mariners to win tonight and make it to the ALCS for the first time since 2001...

The precipitable water value at Tucson tonight was a daily record, showing the extreme moisture values available for rainfall across the Southwest the next 48 hours. Moderate risk for flash flooding across a large chunk of northern and central AZ Fri/Fri night.

Highly unusual situation approaching western Colorado with the moisture from Hurricane Priscilla. Grand Junction has never had precipitable water over an inch (25mm) so late in the year, but looks like it will be near that level on both Fri & Sat. Six standard deviations above average! #cowx 1/2

“Infitada” …and to post this right before the deadliest massacre in Jewish history since the Holocaust is appalling. I don’t agree with the Israeli government/Netanyahu, but this post is blatant antisemitism from someone in my field and it’s deeply disappointing and it is my duty to say something.

Live from the farm. Life with 4 animals can be a lot sometimes…Julio is not in the picture this time.

Fairly classic cold air damming setup in the lee of the Front Range today. We are socked in by stratus and are still in the upper-40s/low-50s this afternoon under weak (5-10 knot) easterly upslope flow. Can also see the SW flow aloft given the clouds over the higher terrain. A warm advection regime!

A true sign of fall: The melting layer isn’t too high above the surface! ❄️🌨️

Something is incredibly satisfying about seeing east-northeasterly upslope initiating showers and thunderstorms right along the spine of the foothills and Palmer Divide.

Posting with no context

Just a reminder that NWS is considered essential during a government shutdown. Meteorologists will still go to work, forecasts will still be made, watches and warnings will be issued, data will flow. We won’t be paid until the shutdown ends, but we’ll still protect life and property as always.

Just pure noise and pure awesome!

Nature. Getting away and appreciating nature is going to be the key to getting through these next 3.5 years...Getting away and escaping from reality.

Congaree National Park = Underrated

Summing up/integrating all the bacon, eggs, and hashbrowns in my stomach this morning… #WaffleHouse

Fires to the north and west of Manhattan/Junction City, Kansas earlier en route from Denver to Charlotte: