Pretty crazy how the warm nose on this sounding from Shreveport has a maximum temp of ~55°F at 900 mb, yet the surface is well below freezing. A true freezing rain sounding!

Light snow falling from the sky with clear skies overhead? Neat seeing such small and light ice crystals being advected so far upwind from the clouds I see to my north!

Purely a snow sounding in Norman (no warm nose) although likely some sublimation due to low-level dry air. Purely a rain sounding to the south in Fort Worth. Both in regions of strong low-level warm advection (strong veering winds with height). Some weak elevated instability at FWD.

Can look at our exp products of SLR www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/hmt_webp... Have a few options for rrfs

This is the GFS at 06Z Sun, showing strong isentropic ascent (40 kt flow nearly perpendicular to the isobars) across NW MS, + a stout warm nose from 850-700 mb + a sub-freezing layer below ~900 mb indicating the likelihood for freezing rain at the sfc. A deeper sub-freezing layer would favor sleet.

At the courthouse for jury duty this morning. One of the questions on the questionnaire was: “Do you believe there is any reason you cannot be a fair and impartial juror” My response: “I have no faith in our justice system. The president is a convicted felon”.

CFADs: Cat frequency by altitude diagrams

Denver Cyclone plus an evident convergence zone north and east of DIA this morning acting to locally enhance snowfall rates. Can also see the convergence via surface observations via the wind field.

Basking in the sun and bracing for the cold snap…

I encourage all who are going to AMS this year in Houston to read this excellent AFD from Cameron Batiste at the NWS Houston WFO. Impacts, uncertainties, synoptic setup, etc. Just fantastic: forecast.weather.gov/product.php?... .

Here were the latest WPC Key Messages regarding the impending winter storm and extreme cold. Each time I post these, the probabilities for Moderate Impacts keep going up.

I am glad he takes action based on NOAA forecasts

Such a mood

Some interesting mesoscale snow banding over West Chicagoland that appear to be oriented perpendicular to the low-level flow? Not sure if these are gravity wave-induced…

Oh my god Bears that play was absolutely incredible.

JD Vance is just pure evil.

A bit of an update: I will be joining the NWS Cheyenne WFO in February. Beyond thrilled to be serving the folks in WY and W Nebraska. My time at WPC has been invaluable. I’ve learned so much from so many people. WOC has taught me so much. We will be living in Fort Collins, so still staying in state!

Thought it was a parking ticket and was pleasantly surprised to see this on my car instead:

Woke up to around 4.0” of snow this morning in Littleton! One nice last push up upslope resulting in moderate to heavy snow right along the base of the foothills as drier air works its way in.

Maybe that’s why the tickets were so cheap tonight…

Just got hit with a heavy band of snow very quickly. Some aggregates in there! Snow is now sticking to cars and grass. #COwx

Excited for the increasingly likelihood of 3"+ of snowfall, but more excited for the potential for > 0.3" QPF which we desperately need. Still a large spread in possible outcomes (as per usual), as any minor deviations in flow relative to the higher terrain always makes the specifics complicated!

Just a casual 70°F game time temperature on January 4th. Go Broncos!

Happy 2026, everyone! May it be a peaceful year?

Me after 2025:

Me after taking our niece to Chuck E. Cheese’s, aka the Petri dish with games:

It’s just too dry at the surface. Can see some 20-25 dBZ returns from the Cheyenne radar which is looking aloft at a greater beam height and range over the Denver Metro. Whereas the Denver radar is showing little in the way of returns much closer to the surface. #sublimation #virga

Not exactly enthused by our chances for much snowfall across the Denver Metro overnight, especially with surface dewpoint depressions still ~10-15°F. CAMs have also backed off on liquid totals. GEFS from 18Z still hinting at ~1". We will take anything we can get.

It's Denver's 3rd-warmest start to a December on record (remember the start of the month started with snow/cold). Going to be a close call for top honors, but definitely got a shot. 12.3° above average this month. #COwx

🚨🔥 Warmest Christmas on record for the Contiguous U.S.! The average high of 57.9F and the average low of 36.6F each broke the Christmas record by a full 3F. 🔥🚨

I understand the effort, but I’m really tired of being told “Happy Channukah” when it ended 3 days ago… Just saying. It’s so lazy. #AJewInAChristianNation

Some 7"+ 24-hour totals especially along the Santa Ynez Mountains north of Santa Barbara corresponding to an 8-10 year avg recurrence interval. Northern LA suburbs generally saw 2.5-3.0" totals. Highest ARIs generally along the SW portion of the Central Valley (10-20 year).

Minimal buoyancy, but that is quite the low-level shear profile at Vandenberg AFB this evening with 50 knot flow just above the surface and a large clockwise-turning hodograph...

73°F in Broomfield on December 19 with no forecast high < 55°F for the next 7 days. La Niña, but also anomalously warm.

The condensation on this napkin is telling everyone to try and be optimistic…there are a lot of good people out there despite the hardships most people are enduring these days.

Particularly Dangerous Situation Red Flag Warning for the Boulder and Jeffco foothills tomorrow, via NWS Boulder. Warning text at mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.ph... #cowx

Breaking: Weather research and climate research are very much related.

Can really distinguish between the smoke plumes and the front using spectrum width! Lots of turbulent flow along the boundary (hence the high variance in velocity). Lower spectrum with from the smoke since they are stemming from a point and drifting with the low-level mean wind.

Smoke plumes moving NW to SE, the front surging southward (both denotes by low CC), and precipitation (denotes by the CC ~1). Another exciting evening on the High Plains.

Interesting (and to be expected) component of this event are the dramatic pressure falls throughout this downsloping wind event. A ~7°C temp increase since 10Z with nearly a 10 mb pressure decrease since then. Adiabatic warming + compression results in a lowering of the weight of the column of air.

Heads up Colorado: there’s a visibility event planned on Saturday in front of the NOAA building in Boulder to show your support for NCAR

😱 those gusts at the NCAR Mesa Lab! Meanwhile on the tabular display, a wind speed/gusts of "nan m/s" can never be a good thing. Not sure if that's related to the peak gusts ~90 mph.

Atmospheric sciences spans from climate scale to microscale - just like the atmosphere itself - and the Trump Administration's plans to dismantle NCAR and somehow protect "vital weather research" shows a complete lack of understanding for how science works. tinyurl.com/3rtpafnx

I think we all need some cat in our lives…

As someone not with NCAR, I use NCAR-based software everyday to help identify and track regions of excessive precipitation to help NWS forecasters protect lives and property. NCAR is extremely valuable and we need them.

Impressive tropopause fold associated with a tropopause polar vortex (TPV) over the DelMarVa region yesterday evening. The 00Z Dulles sounding showing the fold just above 700 mb.

Denver just hit 60° for the 7th-straight day. That is now Denver's latest streak of 60°+ temps on record. It also ties the 2nd-longest streak of December days of 60°+ temps on record as well. #COwx

We're in. And we're still climbing.