The MJO is forecast to amplify into the Pacific (Phase 7) which could prompt a westerly wind burst (WWB) across the intl dateline. This appears to be the first major step toward reversal of ENSO and could initiate the growth of an El Niño event as we move into 2026.

Overlooking Pearl River near Bogalusa, LA @vincentledvina.bsky.social

West of Lumberton, MS

Brief glimpse of aurora on the horizon in Slidell, LA @vincentledvina.bsky.social

Regarding the sonde from yesterday morning with the 219-kt spot wind, highest dropsonde wind ever seen in a TC, AOML/HRD shared the raw data and I took a look this morning. They’ll have the final call, but I see nothing wrong with the ob and I suspect it’s going to hold up.

“Everyone wants more warning time, and that’s why we’re working to upgrade the technology that’s been neglected for far too long to make sure families have as much advance notice as possible,” Noem said. The reality: Closing NOAA labs like NSSL, critical for flash flood forecasts & research.

One of the primary tools we use to predict flash floods is the NSSL's Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System. "I’ve zero doubt NWS forecasters were leveraging that tool that evening to issue flash flood warnings. NSSL and associated projects are slated for elimination in NOAA’s proposed 2026 budget."

This is the most sinking motion (+VP200) observed over Africa in AMJ since 2015. MJO phase 5-7 has been favored recently which is a mixed bag for subseasonal TC favorability of the Atlantic. SW Atlantic & subtropics appear to be the hot spots for TCs generally. Plots: @webberweather.bsky.social

90-day avg VP200 anomalies since April show how forcing aloft has evolved from spring into summer. 🟢 Rising motion over west Africa has waned 🟤 Sinking motion has increased over West IO (-IOD) 🟢 Rising has increased over maritime continent (-ENSO) 🟤 Sinking has increased over the Amazon

Deep convection east of the center of #Chantal is causing stronger pressure falls which is elongating and pulling the low-level center NE closer to the tilted mid-level center of the storm. This is how TCs attempt to remedy the negative effects of wind shear and reorganize.

TS #Chantal has gradually deepened since the last recon flight yesterday despite being quite lopsided due to SW wind shear. While the west side is barren, the eastern side will be capable of gusty winds in excess of 50 mph and heavy rainfall as it moves into the Carolinas on Sunday.

Tragic. Deadliest U.S. flash flood since 39 were killed in Kentucky in July 2022. “A remnant tropical system (Barry), moisture levels in the 99th percentile or higher, forced upward motion due to geography and wind direction, and plentiful instability. That's a recipe for flash flooding.”

#Invest92L continues to gradually organize and AF recon has identified a closed surface center on the west edge of the deep convection. A subtropical or tropical cyclone is forming, and some strengthening could occur before SE US landfall this weekend. Next 🌀 name is Chantal.

Buckle up for the upcoming peak of the 2025 hurricane season. And possibly for 25 seasons after that. As seen on @nbcmiami.com 📺 #StandUpForScience #ScienceUnderSiege #NOAA #HurricaneSeason #ScienceMatters #TogetherForScience

Convection continues to become more concentrated and organized on the tail-end of a decaying front, and a broad low is developing as a result. Despite SW shear, dry air, and limited time over water, a TC could develop over the weekend before impacting the SE US with heavy rain and gusty winds.

A comprehensive article of what is at stake with the current budget proposed by the DoC ➡️ NOAA. Nearly every aspect of what we do at NHC has been touched by NOAA Research in one facet or another to our benefit. #AOML, #CIMSS, #CIRA, #CIMAS all play key roles & losing any of them would be horrific.

Global models are gradually coming into better agreement that another shorter-lived TC could develop from the tail-end of a stalling front off the SE CONUS this weekend. Moderate SW wind shear, dry air, and land interaction will be impediments to development/strengthening of a TC.

In Bay of Campeche fashion, the curvature of the coast is enhancing sfc vorticity & a small low is developing near the coast under the deep convection. This weak low will rotate up the wave axis, paralleling the Veracruz coast, buying itself time for TCG. Next 🌀 name is Barry.

The Atlantic is on the verge of its quietest start since 2014 with 0 storms thus far. About the only chance for development the next 7 days comes from this lingering trough SE of Bermuda. Models are latching onto a weak low developing from this convection, but it will struggle to be well-defined.

It appears the more active East Pacific has won the CAG tug of war with the Caribbean and a TC will consolidate near Central America in the coming days. 📈 There are some hints of rapid intensification being possible if a more compact TC can form before landfall in Mexico. The next 🌀 name is Erick.

For years, I've long said that climate.gov's team of remarkable communicators (& their amazing blogs, which were accessible but did not "dumb down" the science!) was NOAA's best (& most cost effective!) public-facing extreme #weather / #climate education effort to date. This will be a huge loss.

East Pacific tropics have been active in response to upward motion associated with a CCKW. This CCKW will soon cross into the Caribbean where it will enhance gyre activity near Central America. Land interaction will likely impede TC formation, but it remains possible a brief TC forms in 5-7 days.

First you fire the provisional staff, then shove the most experienced out the door, then you try shuffling existing staff into critical vacancies, then you do a new recruitment (for which existing staff will compete, creating new vacancies). Yup, DOGE efficiency at its finest.

June 1st marks the official start of the 2025 #HurricaneSeason in the North Atlantic. While I no longer am writing seasonal forecast discussions, I do have some thoughts about the upcoming season. This season is favored to be near the 1991-2020 avg (14 storms, 7 hurricanes, & 3 major hurricanes).

Literally every single day, United States leadership in scientific research is being tossed in the trash like rotting food and all that power is being ceded to Europe, China, and any other country with a leader that has a brain.

NEW: NOAA retires its widely cited billion-dollar weather and climate database amid staff cuts. Unique database had been tallying disaster costs for 45 years. www.cnn.com/2025/05/08/c...

This is the absolute stupidest, most asinine thing ever. These people are terrible at management. Again, NOAA and the NWS are being gutted for almost no deficit savings while costing the economy and potentially people’s lives significantly.

These probationary cuts were done with a hatchet, not a scalpel. They have everything to do with an unlucky appointment status and nothing to do with conduct or performance. The worst part is they disproportionately affect some of our brightest early career scientists like Zack. Disgraceful.

I think the biggest lie being told right now is that one of the wealthiest countries in the world cannot afford to invest in science, education, and the environment.

Parts of south LA are waking up to their coldest morning ever recorded. Lafayette 4°F (all-time record) Baton Rogue 7°F (2nd lowest on record) Slidell 8°F (all-time record) Lake Charles 6°F (2nd lowest) New Iberia 2°F (all-time record) 1899 record still stands at BTR and LCH.

Today marks the last day of #HurricaneSeason. 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒 𝐒𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐩: 18 Named Storms 11 Hurricanes 5 Major Hurricanes 161.6 ACE (12th highest since 1951) >$220 billion in damage (2nd highest) 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐦: 🌀 Milton 180 Mph | 897 mb 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐦: 🌀 Helene >$120 billion (early estimates)

The Blue Ridge Parkway outside Asheville.

However many times this was on your feed today, it wasn’t enough. Absolute perfection.

Quality evening weather balloon launch 🌅 📍 Slidell, LA #wxbluesky #LAwx #weather #sunset

🌀 Typhoon Man-Yi likely nearing Category 5 intensity based off latest satellite imagery. Terrible timing for rapid intensification right before landfall in the Philippines.

I stopped in my tracks seeing Tropical Storm Sara's rainfall approaching that of Hurricane Mitch (1998). Mitch is the second-deadliest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record... largely due to devastating flooding from heavy rainfall in Honduras and Nicaragua. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurrica...

🌀 Man-yi in the West Pacific is well on its way to becoming the 3rd Super Typhoon (4th typhoon in total) to strike the Philippines in less than 10 days. Quite uncommon to see such a well choreographed train of typhoons that track over nearly the same area.

🚂🌀 West Pacific Typhoon Train Yet another typhoon is gathering strength in the WPAC and aiming toward Luzon, Philippines. Man-yi is forecast to be the 4th typhoon in just 10 days to impact the area. Super Typhoon Yinxing 11/7 Typhoon Toraji 11/11 Super Typhoon Usagi 11/14

I’m finding out quickly GIFs are finicky on this app

Almost all guidance this morning abandoned the idea of tropical depression 19 becoming more than a weak tropical storm. The outlier is the HWRF… but its track already deviates way north of the model consensus (and current observations) at hour 24, meaning far less land interaction.

There’s still just enough uncertainty that some sort of impact to Florida can’t be completely ruled out, but today’s trends have been towards a much weaker storm that fails to make it north of Central America — a Florida hurricane is much less likely to happen.

Of the ~640 continental U.S. landfalls since the 1850s, only 5 took place after Veterans' Day. Just one was a hurricane, Kate in 1985. All struck #Florida's Gulf Coast. Rising odds of adding to that tally next week. Will have a complete update on #Invest99L early this afternoon.