I'm sure this will be an unpopular opinion, but while the text of the US plan for Ukraine is poorly drafted and incomplete, it is not a simple call for Ukrainian capitulation. As a starting point for something that could stop the killing, it has some promise. A few thoughts 1/

Naja.

OK, so I just put out a long thread on some of the things experts had to say about "A House of Dynamite" (and I wrote a story, below). But here's a much more philosophical (and personal) 🧵 on why I don't think it works as a nuclear war movie. www.npr.org/2025/10/24/n...

Gerade erst gesehen, dass Liane Bednarz auf X mittlerweile ein Buch von Ellen Kositza als das klügste zur Selbstbehauptung von Frauen gegenüber Männern geschriebene bezeichnet hat, keine weiteren Fragen mehr

Es ist eine „logische Schlussfolgerung“, dass Taylor Swift pro-Eugenik dogwhistles benutzt, wenn sie über ihren Verlobten singt „Have a couple of kids, got the whole block looking like you“, genug Reddit für die nächsten Tage

Probably the definitive thread on Annie Jacobsen‘s „Nuclear War- A Scenario“. Been said a thousand times, but if you want to read a novel about nuclear escalation dynamics re: North Korea that is grounded in reality, Jeffrey Lewis‘ „The 2020 Commission Report“ is a million times better.

Hanebüchener Text. "Antideutsch" scheint für den Autor einfach eine israelsolidarische Linke zu meinen, nicht eine einigermaßen abgrenzbare Theorie. Diese Israelsolidarität soll es dann sein, die "eine breite linke Kritik an Israel" (nicht: an der israelischen Regierung) verhindert, nicht etwa (1/2)

Aber dass im Falle einer völligen Handelsblockade Benzin und Gas rationiert werden müssen, wird niemanden wundern. Die Vorstellung, dass es einen irgendwie ideologisch aufgeladenen »Bauernstand« bräuchte, weil die Stadtmenschen sonst verhungern, ist völkische Propaganda

Since some people are confused in the comments: 7-8 years ago, Nick Fuentes et al declared war on Charlie Kirk, their stand-in for all their hate. Theyd go to TPUSA events and press him from the right on immigration, Israel, "anti-white" etc, though without going mask-off on their own views...

Whatever was behind the Russian drones entering Poland via Belarus (recce? probe? error?), we're seeing some pretty smart responses from, so far, Warsaw, NATO (& some individual allies), & Minsk. A quick 🧵 1/7

It’s a major failing by American liberals that they cling to pee-pee-tape dreams and Kremlin-stooge conspiracies instead of recognizing that Trump’s transactional approach to Putin is rooted in Russiagate-driven partisan priorities and now especially faith in Great Power influence spheres.

Über 2000 Follower, kein einziger widerspricht, wenn random israelische Bürger:innen (eine Journalistin, ein Banker), denen iranische Raketen die Wohnungen kaputtgeschossen haben, als "völkermörder" diffamiert werden. Dominierende Haltung auf Bluesky zu Antisemitismus: lustig&cool. Kotzt mich so an

Jesus Christ

Der Inspekteur des Heeres General Alfons Mais sagt bei maybritillner, Russland ziehe jährlich 200.000 Wehrpflichtige ein. Außerdem sei die Wehrpflicht kürzlich von 1 auf 2 Jahre erhöht worden. Das Problem: Beides stimmt nicht. youtu.be/ioG_cGQI4qI?... 1/10

Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17

Warum überrascht mich weder, dass Per Leo für Gelassenheit in Sachen iranischer Atomwaffen wirbt, weil Israel und Iran, wenn beide Atomwaffen hätten, sich ja ohnehin gegenseitig abschrecken würden, wie Atommächte das halt tun, noch dass DPZ das kommentarlos teilt?

Iran's status as a power is potentially falling apart not just because of the collapse of badly managed air defence systems, but also because of what proved a disastrous military and diplomatic strategy that wasted huge goodwill, cash and prestige on proxy forces in other states that are now useless

Unless Israel changes what it's targeting in days ahead, this is a regime-change strike with just enough targeting of nuclear infrastructure so Netanyahu can depict it as an act of preemptive self-defense. For the operation to succeed, I think the regime has to fall.

Dieses Frontex-Buch ist echt dermaßen geisteskrank wer auch immer das zu verantworten hat wird in der Hölle schmoren

🚨BREAKING: Convoy of Cybertrucks filled with Muskites heading for Washington D.C.

Wäre da vorsichtiger. Der Bomber-Arm war in der sowjetischen/russischen Triade schon immer am schwächsten und weniger bedeutend. Vor allem ICBM und dann SLBM wichtig. Nebenbei: Randall Forsberg schrieb schon 1979 über den "Nuclear Imperialism". digital.library.cornell.edu/catalog/ss:2...

Short thread (hopefully in plain English) on the nuclear deterrence dynamics in the India-Pakistan relationship and where this goes if escalation continues. <1>

is you texting war plans to journalists on Signal?

Ich komme immer noch nicht darauf klar, dass wir jetzt an dem Punkt sind, an dem einfach in großen deutschen Zeitungen Texte veröffentlicht werden, die eins zu eins aus der Feder eines der Konservativen Revolutionäre stammen könnten und Habermas quasi der Wehrkraftzersetzung beschuldigen.

Die Völkermord-Anklage gegen Israel erlebt eine Renaissance. Dieser Vorwurf ist haltlos – eine Replik auf einen Text in der taz.

There are two serious problems with this take: first, I don't think this issue is partisan in nature. I dont think conservatives are sitting around reading Clausewitz either, and I'm skeptical at the assumed conterfactual that a R admin would have done things differently in 2022-2023.

Rostalski ist ein gutes Beispiel für den nahtlosen Übergang von coronleugnerischen Diskursen in AfD-Apologetik.

Just nauseating.

Listening to Trump rant about the “great golden domes” of the Donbas, I am reminded that he is basically a human ChatGPT, aggregating general trivia (in this case, “something something Slavic, something something Orthodox”) and hallucinating with unwavering confidence.

A fundamental problem is that NATO effectively discourages major European spending on conventional weapons due to the power asymmetry between the Europeans and the US. This was already recognized by the Eisenhower administration, see e.g. Trachtenberg: Constructed Peace, p. 154.

A few thoughts on this as someone who thinks most of the day about nuclear weapon risks. There are four distinct risk categories, I think: — Use risk* — Proliferation risk* — Industrial/sustainment risk — Nuclear security risk * These two matter *way* more than the other two (which also matter).

Das Beste an Poschardts Buch ist, dass es die Möglichkeit eröffnet, seine Ideen einer solchen Kritik zu unterziehen. Das von Hegel formulierte Problem, dass das Prinzip der bürgerlichen Gesellschaft seinen eigenen Kontrapunkt produziert, scheint bei Poschardt nicht einmal in den Blick zu geraten.

Ich hoffe sehr, dass in den öffentlichen Verlautbarungen von SPD und Grünen in den nächsten drei Wochen wenig anderes kommt als das stetige Wiederholen, dass Merz aus Wahlkampfgründen mit Rechtsextremen paktieren möchte.

As if Russia redrawing the map in Ukraine didn't already invite every bro who played Sid Meier's Civilization® as a kid to opine on nations' power levels, now we've got a rousing debate about who could take Greenland.

Great idea to answer a fascist ascendancy with antisemitic tropes, nice evolution from 2016 RussiaGate thinking 🤦‍♂️

One thing I find very striking about the recent discourse on the purported impossibility of using nuclear weapons to win is how much of it rests on a centering of nukes instead of actors. Two ways in which this works against it: 1) It conceives of actors as contextless entities and not as (1)

Had a random thought today… Maybe it’s really not a good idea for more countries - even allies - to acquire nuclear weapons

but we're really not, are we? like, Ukraine is an *actual war*, it's self-aggrandizing and overdramatic to believe that the various shitty shenanigans of Russia elsewhere are an actual war.

Maybe better to concentrate on upping the deterrent abilities of NATO minus the United States instead of dreaming up such interventions beyond its boundary.

Related to this: obviously enormous escalation risks under most scenarios, especially after the very public crossing of a „red line“ with LRS into Russia and Putin‘s threat to hit Western military installations- doing so in UKR would give him escalation option West imo doesn‘t have good answer to.

My take on this Oreshnik business is that the Kremlin is not necessarily concerned about ATACMS et al strikes, since everybody, including the US and Russia, says that these won't change much. Rather, it is concerned about the implied intent. 1/

Maybe pedantic, but it irks me how many people treat Putin‘s speech yesterday as a „nuclear“ threat. Afaik we don‘t really know whether Oreshnik is primarily nuclear, but there was no direct nuclear, but a conventional threat to US/UK in the speech. Different threats and escalation scenarios.

the NAFO death cult rides on

Good thread, same impression I had, although obviously no high confidence possible re: future actions.