I found the latest episode of Geopolitics Decanted with @dmitri.silverado.org very informative on the state of the Russian economy. I don’t know whether these new sanctions are enough to be the potential game changers identified by Chris Weafer. podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/g...

Very interesting podcast by @dmitri.silverado.org why drones are a useful addition to the European military but shouldn't be the main focus for investment in building our military capabilities.

Great discussion with @justin-br0nk.bsky.social and @dmitri.silverado.org about the "drone panacea myth". See also the RUSI article www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

I found this discussion between @dmitri.silverado.org and @justin-br0nk.bsky.social on the limitations of drones to be very useful. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/g...

Justin Bronk — @justin-br0nk.bsky.social — is a keen observer of military affairs. Talking with @dmitri.silverado.org, he challenges the view that Ukraine’s success with UAVs against Russia is a model for what the US and other western nations should focus on. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/g...

Why Drones Can’t Replace Traditional Firepower My @GeopolDecanted discussion with @justin-br0nk.bsky.social about his recent provocative @rusi.bsky.social piece on this topic. We also discuss efficacy of Ukrainian F-16s, Operation SpiderWeb and much more. Watch 👇 youtu.be/ykLIH2kY1U8

Chip Security Act (CSA) is a new bipartisan bill in Congress that requires advanced AI chips to have location verification to combat illicit diversion of exports of these chips to banned countries like China. A 🧵 on how this could work to enhance US export control enforcement

Malaysia, one of the top black market transshippers of AI chips to China, has just announced that "effective immediately, all exports, tranships and transits of high-performance AI chips of US origin are subject to a Strategic Trade Permit" www.miti.gov.my/miti/resourc...

New Geopolitics Decanted episode about why the US nuclear force posture needs to change Also Iran-Israel war, China’s new tactical nuclear arsenal, debate about counterforce vs countervalue targeting & extended deterrence, and why Pakistan wants ICBMs targeting America youtu.be/tCVtes4dEUU

Worth listening to both of these, on Iran’s nuclear program and its future after the Israeli-US attacks 1.) David Albright interviewed by @mdubowitz.bsky.social www.fdd.org/podcasts/202... 2.) @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social interviewed by @dmitri.silverado.org podcast.silverado.org/e/assessing-...

If you want to understand the true extent of the damage done to all aspects of the Iranian nuclear weapons program and how difficult it might be to rebuild it, look no further than this podcast 👇 youtu.be/iCfMfoaUaMA

This is an excellent 0-60mph on Iran's nuclear program, and detailed assessment of the US strikes. And good fun as always with these two despite the unfolding mess.

@dmitri.silverado.org talks to Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social about whatever now constitutes the Iranian nuclear program and what might be next. Super interesting and discusses various possibilities - but don't expect definitive answers.

Hot off the press: new Geopolitics Decanted episode with @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social where we dive deep into the details of the damage done to the Iranian nuclear program, prospects for reconstitution, as well as have a lively debate about the merits of this war

This is very much worth your time!

New @GeopolDecanted episode: The Israel-Iran War: Possibilities and the Dangers of Overreach I discuss the state of the war with Gen. Amos Yadlin (Ret.), perhaps the world's only person who has participated in the destruction of three(!) nuclear weapons programs youtu.be/eaX6fV632r4

Vital question no one seems to be asking right now: when does the Pentagon staff start to get sick of consuming pizza day in and day out and move on to Chinese, Indian or name your takeout food?

One thing to ponder: the only military operation likely in all of human history that has been in active planning and preparation for longer than Israel’s war on Iran is China’s planned invasion of Taiwan

Chinese intelligence agents stepped up efforts to recruit Russian officials, experts, journalists and businesspeople close to power in Moscow according to a leaked FSB document

Fascinating interview with a private drone designer for the RU military. His knowledge of UKR & Western drones is limited and should be taken with some skepticism but he still presents a quite candid picture into the current state of unmanned warfare:🧵 www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmfN...

The story of the aftermath of Prigozhin’s mutiny 2 years ago is finally coming out. As I’d said at the time in @foreignpolicy.com, his death was not a foregone conclusion. If he had agreed to abandon his business empire as Putin demanded, he likely would have been alive today ⬇️

Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul going well today…

"Several American F-16s and an F-35 fighter jet were nearly struck by Houthi air defenses, making real the possibility of American casualties, multiple U.S. officials said.” 👀

Behind closed doors, Chinese officials have grown increasingly alarmed about tariffs' impact on the economy and the risk of isolation as China's trading partners have started negotiating deals with Washington www.reuters.com/world/inside...

For Dmitri Alperovitch, whose book Sam reviews, the US end goals must be to avoid war with China while ensuring US primacy. As Sam points out, confronting the tension between them would require choices DC elites prefer not to make as they have yet to recruit the American people to their cause.

Excited to moderate a keynote panel with @dmitri.silverado.org this morning at RSAC Conference on geopolitics and cybersecurity. Find out more here: path.rsaconference.com/flow/rsac/us...

Virtually all progress China has made in AI in the last 3 years can be directly attributed to loopholes and lax enforcement of chip export controls and the delays by USG in addressing them - from delay in bans on Nvidia H800 and H20 to TSMC manufacturing 3 million dies for Huawei

Terrific writeup by Lennart Heim for ChinaTalk about why chip export controls are ensuring US dominance over China in AI in the coming decade but also why China may match US AI models in benchmarks later this year (and why it’s expected and not a huge deal) www.chinatalk.media/p/chinas-mod...

About this Chinese rare earth ban.. Refining of rare earth minerals is NOT a complex issue to solve. In fact, we have partially solved it already! Story time. Last year I visited the Mountain Pass mine in CA owned by MP Materials, the only operating RE mine in North America 🧵

🎧 On this episode of The President's Inbox, Dmitri Alperovitch sits down with James Lindsay to discuss the geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States, its impact on U.S. interests, and how the United States should respond. Listen ⬇️

Chinese officials acknowledged in a December meeting with Biden officials in Geneva that Beijing was behind the Volt Typhoon intrusions into U.S. critical infrastructure citing increasing U.S. policy support for Taiwan as an excuse www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

Full-on economic decoupling from China may be in progress with additional 104% tariffs going into place and with China reportedly dumping US treasuries Economic integration was the main reason why some have argued against the Cold War II framing. That factor may soon be gone

March was the worst month of the war for the ratio of total UKR to RU equipment losses (source: Oryx). Likely due to the Russian offensive in Kursk and forced Ukrainian withdrawal When looking at heavy weapons only, ratio is a bit better but still 2nd worst month of the war🧵

Perhaps the most underrated story in Chinese politics of the last decade It looks increasingly likely that He Weidong, Vice Chair of the Central Military Commission and one of Xi’s old time loyal colleagues, has been purged. Rumors about his arrest have been floating for the past several weeks 🧵

Taipei seems to be reassured by this action to prioritize US force posture in the Indo-Pacific yet some argue it would somehow simultaneously embolden Xi to initiate aggression against Taiwan. Unlikely that both are true at the same time www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

Very good to see this prioritization. As I wrote in #WorldOnTheBrink, deterring a Chinese attempt to forcefully annex Taiwan is of paramount importance to the United States and, unfortunately, has been too neglected over decades

Trying to keep up with the Indo-Pacific under the new U.S. administration? This must-listen episode covers everything from AUKUS to Taiwan to the U.S.-Japanese relationship. warontherocks.com/2025/03/a-st...

I wonder if there would have been such a concerted effort to silence voices advocating for a lab leak COVID origin theory if the pandemic had started in any country other than China… Imagine it didn’t come from Wuhan but say Novosibirsk…

Opportunities for Ukraine during a 30 day ceasefire should it take place: - rotate some forces off the line for much needed rest - dig in and improve defensive line - fix to the extent possible destroyed critical infrastructure - build more drones - double down on new recruit training 🧵

I think it will be hard for Putin to reject this 30 day ceasefire proposal outright. The stakes now (in his view) are much more than just Ukraine - the bigger prize is the US-Russia diplomatic normalization, dropping of sanctions, driving a wedge within NATO, etc🧵

China will advance unification with Taiwan and boost defense spending by 7.2% this year, Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced during the National People's Congress on Wednesday

🇪🇺🇷🇺 Europe now faces the (overdue) duty of leading on support to Ukraine while contending with a collapse in US relations. Watch NOW 👉 youtu.be/ov1vPdYNyBI I was rejoined by @dmitri.silverado.org to dissect these mammoth events, their implications, and what might happen next.

Zelensky about negotiations in Saudi Arabia: Ukraine knew nothing about it. And Ukraine considers any negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine to be ineffective. We cannot recognize any agreements or decisions made about us without us. And we will not acknowledge such agreements.

Parts of the leaked critical minerals agreement that the US presented to Zelensky last week I am told the original document stipulated that this agreement between the US and Ukrainian governments would be governed under.. NY State law!

The irony of the Europeans being in shock over being left out of the peace talk negotiations is that they actually have more power than the United States to get Ukraine to agree to an ultimate deal: As long as Europe, and not the US, keeps aid flowing, they have all the leverage

Reconnaissance in force is actually a brilliant way to describe Trump’s general approach to negotiations

Defense Secretary Hegseth in Brussels: “The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement. Instead any security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops"

North Korea is a black hole for information -- at least I knew very little about it beyond headline caricatures. This here is a fascinating long discussion on all facets of life in the dictatorship: propaganda and indoctrination, nukes, the surprising economic and political power wielded by women...

A fantastic article from two guests, @radchenko.bsky.social @dmitri.silverado.org we had on @elevatedthoughts.bsky.social free gifted article! Trump can define his term by making peace on Korean Peninsula and allowing the US to marshall resources against China www.nytimes.com/2024/12/29/o...