Working on an ideology called Nate Silverism where you start with the premise that Donald Trump is wildly popular and immigrants and abortion are wildly unpopular and simply reason from there

Merz pointed out that the "decades of Pax Americana are largely over for us." Coming generations, he said, will not care so much about the exact details of pension reform, but will ask "whether we have made the maximum effort to preserving freedom, peace, the rule of law, and democracy.“ 4/

If only the UK were still in the EU we'd have a vote on the frozen assets..

Leaders can make a difference

💪 Tens of thousands are marching from downtown Budapest across the Chain Bridge and tunnel up to Buda Castle, where Viktor Orbán’s office is. Opposition leader Péter Magyar called the march to protest child abuse by Hungarian authorities—and the government’s inaction. 📸: @telexhu.bsky.social

💥Hungary’s probably most scenic anti-Orbán protest is underway under the banner “Let’s defend our children,” after new details emerged about sexual and physical abuse in the child care system — plus ignorance or cover-ups by authorities. Orbán rival Péter Magyar leads the march of tens of thousands.

Again, it is not Yer Da driving himself insane on Facebook that should worry us. It is elite radicalisation: the political and media class, who have roasted each other’s brains to blackened cinders.

'could' here meaning 'absolutely will'.

Such a briefing only holds water if the current leader is serious about, let alone able to, addressing the challenges faced in Europe beyond warm words. Given the breakdown in SAFE negotiations, it’s not clear that Starmer is. Like the bond markets briefing, this reads as desperate and pathetic.

👇👇

💥🪧Huge protest tomorrow outside Viktor Orbán’s office after another week of damning evidence of sexual and physical abuse in child care and youth detention centers. It's Hungary’s own Epstein-style scandal, fueled by wild rumors. This new related video has already been seen by millions.

🫡🫡🫡

This ought to have been impossible according to a lot of pundits.

New free link. as.ft.com/r/1d504f14-c...

Euroclear holds roughly €17 billion on Russian soil, which could be seized in retaliation. But under the new EU plan, Euroclear will be able to "offset" the losses with the €30 billion that its Russian counterpart, the National Settlement Depository (NSD), has on EU soil.

absolutely not

A dish best served cold

New: European Commission is considering a sequel to its multi-billion-euro SAFE loans scheme for defence spending. At a Politico event tonight, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said some member states were asking for a second SAFE. EU officials say it's under active consideration.

RIGHT NOW: Republican Senator Greg Goode, one of the key undecided senators (who actually voted to advance the gerrymander past committee on Tuesday) is giving a speech that makes it pretty clear he's going to vote no. Says his constituents kept telling him to oppose it.

Dunno why but London has been really jumping this Christmas lead up, more than normal. Big happy crowds everywhere.

neez duts

New @spiegel.de cover story catches the sentiment in Germany: 'Two bad guys, one goal: How Trump and Putin are attacking Europe'

Replace trump with Farage and trump voter with Brexit voter and this works well still.

BREAKING: The U.S. Congress has approved the Department of Defense’s 2026 budget, which includes the repeal of the Caesar Sanctions Act. This is wonderful news. Syria is set to regain a vital and influential role in the Middle East in the near future. Congratulations to all of us.

🇫🇷🇮🇹 France and Italy can breathe a sigh of relief after the EU's statistics office signaled that the financial guarantees needed to back a €210 billion financing package to Ukraine won't increase their heavy debt burdens.

An earlier version of the NSS specifically said that the US should try to pry Italy, Austria, Poland and Hungary away from the EU www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/...

Starmer should read this with shame. Devastating. 👇👇👇

In a few years time we are going to see a kind of Warsaw or Bucharest shock among Anglosphere Right wing think tankers who go to Central and East European states expecting a "lost" ethno-national purity and end up in disbelief at how diverse and complex CEE Europe is.

Turquoise Labour: Tough on growth, tough on the causes of growth.

Time is not working for Russia, and things will only get worse. “Putin is very likely preparing to attempt to offset Russia’s near-exhaustion of voluntary recruitment in 2026 by mobilizing elements of Russia’s strategic reserve to sustain combat operations in Ukraine.”

Yes! I don't get why the debate continues to ignore that Putin's war of choice is c6m away from having to enforce mobilisation if he wants to continue, something wildly unpopular. @markgaleotti.bsky.social has said to me well, Ru will just continue air attacks. Ok but that's a very different war!

In some ways this is a useful reminder that a lot of the talk of European security guarantees to Ukraine have the whole thing backwards. For more than three years Ukraine has been guaranteeing European security by fighting and degrading the Russian armed forces. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

hahaha, wtf. This is going to make a lot of European businesspeople who've been relaxed about Trump sit up and take notice.

His budget has passed. Victory for Macron.

“For the people who see themselves as having finally won after 14 years of war and decades of humiliation before that, the victory is not just political, it is existential.” @hhassan.bsky.social writes on the resilience of the new Syrian order.

www.berlingske.dk/internationa... First time ever: The US is now officially viewed as a threat to Denmark, by their intelligence report!! Our former main ally. I’ve heard Norwegian security officials say something similar. So I assume they will say so in the upcoming annual threat report.

Understandable, but there's not really a choice here though.

America's NatSec strategy is an expression of weakness, borne out in its record, 0 from 3, of trying to force a pro-Russian surrender on Ukraine. It has been Europe's strength that prevented this. Much remains to be done, but we should avoid the counsel of despair. open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...

Wow -- Russia reportedly plotted last year to plant bombs on US-bound flights (gift link) giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Based

Great Bradsher piece on how the renminbis dramatic undervaluation is supercharging China‘s export explosion. Germanys trade deficit with China has surged more than 120% this year. But cutting red tape will surely restore Europes competitiveness! www.nytimes.com/2025/12/07/b...

Ahh so citizenship is just a visa

Waited 15 years for this. The Syrian city of Homs tonight. For years, the city was besieged, and its population witnessed one of the fiercest battles during the war.

My column in tomorrow’s FT: on how Netflix and streaming created a huge consumer surplus, but at the cost of a supply side crisis for the artists that produce their material:

Given a) Farage's past; b) the expanding story about Russia and former MEPs; and c) media enthusiasm for "what influence is being bought?" questions, if anyone to left of Mussolini is gifted so much as a cup of sugar, why is Reform facing no such questions about Friday's £9m crypto-bro donation?~AA