How likely is ‘likely’? Does ‘likely’ have a higher probability than ‘probable’? I put together a quick quiz so you can see how you interpret probability phrases, then see how you compare with others: probability.kucharski.io

Silicon Valley’s alliance with Donald Trump was a mask off moment and showed the world we can’t depend on US tech companies. For the past few months, I’ve been trying to get off US tech and I put together a guide so you find alternatives too. I hope you find it helpful!

From this week's newsletter: A timeline of the people and events mentioned in "We Didn't Start the Fire" — the boomeriest song of all time. www.howtoreadthisch.art/post-holiday...

Nice rug from the Caucasus

Quite pleased with this latest arrangement of the £3 charity shop artist’s model (the metal stick limits things somewhat)

Good thread.

A day old but when he says “reiterated my support for international law this morning” there’s something so vague about it I wonder whether he simply said it to himself in the shower.

Very niche. From Dorothy Armstrong’s Threads of Empire.

For no reason whatsoever, I’m reminding you that before the US invaded Iraq in 2003, the Bush administration said that Iraq’s oil revenue would fund everything. www.meforum.org/middle-east-...

Glad I followed this recommendation because it’s really good.

It is, for once, all about oil.

“and in other news, President Trump has ordered the bombing of Venezuela” “Caracas?” “not according to his doctors”

I've had two outstanding public service experiences this hols: a new passport within 2 days of application & a prescription ready to pick up within 2 hours of request. Time saved is a key (unmeasured) productivity metric: digital tech makes a huge difference when implemented well.

Perfect

File under, we never quite know what's coming next. One of my favourite embassy reports. The UK ambassador in East Berlin reporting in after the fall of the Wall...

All the same I’d love to know which foreign leader he has in mind.

Standing on the shoulders of others.

Mon dieu! #ECB www.ft.com/content/c7cd...

On this point, I know BSky has little sympathy for farmers, but now that the government has effectively admitted it got the policy wrong, it's worth revisiting a moment from 14 months ago that stuck in my mind, because it said a lot about how the government was developing policy...

A word from our sponsors

Good. This has been a surprisingly incompetent bit of Russian disinformation. They must by now have plenty of Ukrainian drone debris to scatter around the "target" for propaganda photos - but nothing offered. Also: is it wise to remind ordinary Russians that Putin has several private palaces?

Well, my pick of the best for 2025, hands down, is the breath of fresh air that is @oxfordclarion.bsky.social . Three cheers for good local journalism.

List of aid groups Israel is banning from operating in Gaza as of January 1, via Associated Press.

A rather glum New Year’s Eve Times column on Scottish independence and the rise of Reform UK. www.thetimes.com/article/57aa...

This pollarded willow stands on our local Common and is thought to date to the 1600s. It’s been set fire to in the past and then a year or so ago disintegrated. Here it is, throwing up new branches. I’m sure there’s a message in that somewhere. Happy New Year!

If you’re interested in the difficult Saudi/Abu Dhabi relationship there is useful background in my book Lords of the Desert about the rivalry over Buraimi in the 1940s and 50s.

Just remembered this article by @helengittos.bsky.social: one of the most interesting things I read this year.

The best of Engelsberg Ideas in 2025 engelsbergideas.com/essays/best-...

Lone tree on Dunwich Heath

This is really good: very wide-ranging. Thanks to fellow rug addict @pmcghee.bsky.social for the tip-off

Want a 2.5 minute primer on the ingenuity of randomised controlled trials? Of course you do.

This is really good: very wide-ranging. Thanks to fellow rug addict @pmcghee.bsky.social for the tip-off

how all youtube ads sound to me

“A friend”

The first band I went to see, at the London Astoria 2 in ?late 1993 or early 1994. Price of secondhand CDs seems to be rising.

This is a great article www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Is there anything the *Sunday Times Bestselling Author* isn’t an expert on?

All laptop manufacturers Behold our new wafer-thin 850g laptop which you can balance on a single finger Charge it with our ancient massive power cord designed late in the last millennium.

It's a great night for looking at the moon! Saturn is supposedly near the moon, but I'm having trouble finding it.

Very old boundary ditch. Merry Christmas!

And they say satire's dead. 😂 "Far from the outdated stereotypes, today’s bookmakers are lively community hubs. During the festive season especially, betting shops take on a special atmosphere filled with excitement, companionship and familiar routine that many people look forward to each year."

Lots of good recommendations here

From Harry Sidebottom’s Those Who Are About To Die on Greece and Rome, reminding me of Macmillan’s comparison of the UK and US

I see *Microsoft Word* is now sporting a banner telling me I can “save 50 per cent” on its AI by subscribing.

From Harry Sidebottom’s Those Who Are About To Die on Greece and Rome, reminding me of Macmillan’s comparison of the UK and US

Russia violates: UN Charter Nuclear NPT Helsinki Accords Belovezha Accords Paris Charter Budapest Memo Black Sea Fleet Treaty Ukr-Ru Friendship Treaty Treaty on Azov Sea & Kerch Strait Karkiv pact Etc But Russia we will sign a legal document that we won't attack EU...

Email from HMRC arrives entitled: “Just in case you still need to make a payment” and I can’t decide if this is serious, humour or bitter sarcasm.