This is a lovely thread.

This is quite a story. Trust it will get the attention of the Hungarian electorate. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

It would be interesting to know what they were carrying - in both directions.

Insulting wll of your NATO allies isn't a great way to start a discussion...

President Trump’s continued insults directed at America’s NATO allies makes one wonder if anyone has told him just how much the US military is relying on logistics - and some combat missions - from European bases. Not just the UK - a massive air transport effort is being conducted via Germany.

If it is really so easy, why does the US need its NATO allies to do it? (The same allies it did not bother to consult before it launched this poorly-planned adventure.)

That White House National Security Strategy document sure was useful. It said the Middle East was no longer a central theater of U.S. strategy, and Iran was not on the same strategic level as China or Russia. The U.S. would avoid American military commitments in the region, letting others lead.

"If repeat crises are becoming more commonplace, and there is a rising expectation of government protection, we will need stronger underlying public finances to be able meet them." Read @jillongovt.bsky.social's latest comment www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/rach...

Schrödinger's war.

Because no-one will be able to afford petrol?

"A U.S. submarine". Stars and Stripes gets its history right where the Secretary if Defense got it wrong.

The current action is not about regime change, but it is going to stop Iran making improvised explosive devices? Good luck with that.

The contrast between the US SecDef belittling European allies and the French president outlining a forward-deterrent scheme for Europe today is quite something.

The fact that after three days of bombardment Iran was able to get these in the air seems fairly remarkable.

Unfortunately, a rising oil price is potentially good news for Putin.

Anyone checking the oil price?

‘Neither is it likely that the protests will resume while missiles are flying. “When bombs are falling, people don’t take to the streets,” observes an Israeli intelligence analyst.’ economist.com/middle-east-...

Can anyone explain why, on this day of all days, there is a Russian flag flying from a lamp-post in Philadelphia? (Photo from a livestream on Earthcam.)

Interesting. Depends on how much lower the lower-intensity strikes are, I suppose. But I usually look for a ulterior motive where stories attributed to Israeli intelligence are concerned. I wonder if this might be intended to persuade the Iranians they can ride it out, and so not to cut a deal.

A good read. www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...

Help. I keep losing track of what is supposed to be a distraction from what.

Depressing photo. Makes DC - a city I really like - look disturbingly like Pyongyang.

The usual very clear exposition from @ldfreedman.bsky.social Good news for Ukraine, but food for thought for any armed forces depending on a single commercial supplier for a critical capability, if that supplier is itself subject to the whim of one man. open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/l...

@mrjamesob.bsky.social Bedford CC dealing with the bigots like an absolute boss.

Hard to work out whether the US military build-up is just a device to put pressure on Iran in the talks, or if the decision to attack has already been taken and the talks are just a device to buy time for the build-up to reach the point when the JCS feel they have enough forces to do it.

It’s hard to see how someone who’s the headline could be an effective cabinet secretary. Discretion and an unimpeachable record are essential qualities. (The same should be true for any civil service permanent secretary). There’s more to this than reported here. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

All respect to the BBC, but it's hardly earth-shattering news that he is *considering* this. He wouldn't be doing his job if he wasn't. The big story would be if he had decided. A Defence Investment Plan was promised by the end of 2025: is there a new date yet? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Russia has never seen this 'negotiating process' (to use the term loosely) as a way to reach a compromise with Kyiv, but as just another line of operation to achieve its maximalist demands. At the moment the main effect seems to be to provide the US with political cover for delaying more sanctions.

"It will make [US-made] cars cheaper". Cheaper, but un-exportable. Or will there be 'dirty' cars for Americans and 'clean' cars for everyone else?

The United Kingdom is allocating the largest support package in its history to Ukraine - £500 million (over $680 million) to strengthen air defense capabilities. This was announced by UK Defence Secretary John Healey at a meeting of the Ramstein-format Contact Group.

Hmm. So the USG is planning to remove all legal curbs on CO2 emissions on the grounds that greenhouse gases aren’t a problem? Impeccable timing, coinciding with the news that China’s emissions have begun to fall.

A sensible move. I don't underestimate the practical difficulties, but after three years of Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, it's a bit surprising it hasn't been done before now. Mild(ish) winters weren't going to last for ever.

Just caught up with this interesting article. Food for thought - particularly regarding the effect of political parties’ dependencies for funding. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/07/o...

Turns out firing career diplomats and replacing them with Trump loyalists who learned international relations from Truth Social has consequences. Who knew. #holdfast

Good piece by Shiraz Maher

Re-posting this on the day Christian Turner presents his credentials as Ambassador in Washington. Good to see a highly experienced professional take the helm.

This is impressive journalism. Are American media organisations doing equivalent digging in the mass of files? I've yet to see evidence of it in the NYT or WP.

Gift article - Those who know realize the only answer is destroying the system of repression. I’m also attaching my article on Russian defectors warning us again and again. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/06/b...

Xi’s purge of top Chinese generals has cost Western governments a key contact and deepened fears that the PLA is becoming even more walled-off – Bloomberg: ‘chief of the PLA’s Joint Staff Department [Liu] had been the most effective point of contact for managing risks and preventing miscalculation’

@shashj.bsky.social on BBC Radio 4 this morning: "I still feel we are on a path towards a large, substantial US military strike [on Iran]". I wonder if the Trump Administration's problems in Minnesota make this more or less likely?

This is possibly my favourite quote about politics. paw.princeton.edu/article/stil...

The UN has been here eight decades. We’re sticking around.

Open Letter to Americans

Since we are in that sort of mindset today: I wonder how many Americans had family members who fought and died in a war to end the institution of slavery.

After four winters of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, I’d assumed that this sort of support to Ukraine from its European partners was SOP by now. The fact it is considered newsworthy suggests that isn’t the case. Why not?

France seizes suspected Russian 'shadow fleet' tanker in the Mediterranean

This needs repeating, again and again, until the President understands and accepts it. (And by the way, who is telling him otherwise?)

Memory cuts two ways. President Trump has been clear that he wants to go down in history. He may well do so - just not in the way he thinks.

“Greenland is to Trump as Ukraine is to Putin” “The crisis is not impending, it is here” Fiona Hill at our event this evening www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/trump-...