As @aphclarkson.bsky.social points out, this war may well destroy the Iranian regime, including the allegedly “resilient”, so-called revolutionary guard. The US has no obviously apparent strategy for what comes next. That won’t help the IRGC. It should nonetheless be of huge concern to all of us.

We* don’t have the inventories or industrial base needed to defend & sustain ourselves & regenerate used & destroyed materiel in a high intensity war. We* need to be able to. To deter such a war. Or, if necessary, to win one. We* need to surge 10% of GDP for 10 years to fix that. *UK, & others.

Good afternoon everyone.

I kid you not.

Even taking into account that the headline is (of course) a simplification of what Mr Kyle said, this is a pretty astonishing intervention by a UK cabinet minister who, at the same time, says “we” aren’t in favour of joining the EU customs union or common regulatory zone (aka “single market”).

Russia & western complacency brought us together four years ago, James. What I wrote, & what we said on your show: attached to this post, & the next. So painful, & dangerous, that the nightmare continues. So vital that Ukraine wins. Thread from 24 February 2022 ⬇️ /1. bsky.app/profile/andr...

Russia, World War 3 & our extraordinary complacency. Education White Paper. BAFTA controversy continues. tinyurl.com/4rrn2mkx

What I wrote, on another site, on 24 February 2022. ___ Does anyone still think “NATO enlargement” has been “the problem”? Does anyone still labour under the illusion our governments haven’t known for many years precisely what Putin is, & what needs to be done about him? /1.

On this, the fourth anniversary of Russia's failed attempt to wipe Ukraine from the map, I spoke to @johnsweeneyroar.bsky.social about the war, about Ukraine's heroism and about what it means for all of us. Have a listen! podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...

Just sent out this post. It warns against buying weapons as the basis of military power. European states have a great opportunity to benefit from their defense spending in the coming years, buying lots of US weapons will stymie that. Building capacity is the key. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

My piece: Four years of war has forged Ukraine into a lynchpin for European security www.libdemvoice.org/four-yeas-of...

I wrote a piece for @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social to mark 4 years of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, on lessons European leaders shd learn & the priorities they shd act on. Maybe most important: Europe needs to be on the pitch, not in the stands: Ukraine’s security is our security.

There’ll be no peace in Europe with Russia until Russia has fundamentally changed. Such a Russia will, among other things, abandon resource & territorial theft & the brutalisation of people. Fundamental change won’t happen with Putin’s clique in power. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

US security, prosperity & well-being require a tight, potent alliance with a secure, prosperous Europe - jointly projecting decisive military, economic & political power. Requiring durable peace in Europe. In turn requiring a democratic, liberal order. See also Russia. bsky.app/profile/andr...

US security, prosperity & well-being require a tight, potent alliance with a secure, prosperous Europe - jointly projecting decisive military, economic & political power. Requiring durable peace in Europe. In turn requiring a democratic, liberal order. See also Russia. bsky.app/profile/andr...

There’ll be no peace in Europe with Russia until Russia has fundamentally changed. Such a Russia will, among other things, abandon resource & territorial theft & the brutalisation of people. Fundamental change won’t happen with Putin’s clique in power. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Think what you like about the new cabinet secretary. Neither she, nor the person who appointed her, nor the proper functioning of UK government can survive a continued drip feed of eye-popping stories like this. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

There’s much to be said about Antonia Romeo, some good, some bad. Setting aside whether the bad is disqualifying, it’s striking that she says: “[The civil service] should be known for delivery, efficiency & innovation”. That’s back to front. A very short 🧵/1. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

A lot of people have asked what this opinion means: Are ICE tactics likely to change because of the court's holding in this case? So let's talk for a minute about what the court is doing.

What is trade Bluesky’s view of this analysis by ING? (tl;dr tariffs are here to stay) think.ing.com/articles/sup...

Update (new from BBC): Cabinet secretary frontrunner faced multiple bullying complaints www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Good 🧵 from @jackworlidge.bsky.social, pushing back on media suggestions the civil service tried to block Chris Wormald’s payout. But, as @instituteforgovernment.org.uk briefing shows, use of “ministerial direction” is a far from trivial matter. www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/mi...

It’s hard to see how someone who’s the headline could be an effective cabinet secretary. Discretion and an unimpeachable record are essential qualities. (The same should be true for any civil service permanent secretary). There’s more to this than reported here. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Russia & war in Europe Good discussion right now @mrjamesob.bsky.social Worth noting that Berlin to Kyiv is the same distance as Land’s End to John o’Groats. And the distance from the UK coast to the sea where Russia is already attacking critical UK & European infrastructure is approx 0 miles.

Exactly. This is not a lot of money. And once destroyed you don’t get to rebuild it.

This. Since "Global Britain" we've thrown away one position after another on the foreign stage when it's never been so important.

The BBC World Service is less than two months away from its funding running out. What on earth is going on?

Munich Disagreement: Conflict In Our Time Marco Rubio’s Munich Security Conference performance highlighted fundamental flaws in a US security strategy which, if not corrected, will drive Europe, the USA and the world to destruction. What can Europe do? A 🧵 /1. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/14/w...

Munich Disagreement: Conflict In Our Time Marco Rubio’s Munich Security Conference performance highlighted fundamental flaws in a US security strategy which, if not corrected, will drive Europe, the USA and the world to destruction. What can Europe do? A 🧵 /1. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/14/w...

2K here we come. Follow @eejbro.bsky.social A diplomat in a million! (Allegedly retired. Pull the other one).

The High Court ruling on Palestine Action is important. However: (1) government will appeal (2) court found PA had engaged in terrorism … (3) … but that did not “yet […] warrant proscription”. tl;dr High Court says PA sometimes engages in criminality and terrorism, but shouldn’t yet be banned.

There’s a great deal in this, from @helenebismarck.bsky.social ⬇️

Wrongs and rights: the real Keir Starmer It’s wrong to say Keir Starmer isn’t interested in policy. Contrary to so much supposedly informed political commentary, he’s a revolutionary at heart who wants to embed for at least a generation social democratic government, for the betterment of all. /1.

By his dramatic intervention calling for Keir Starmer to resign, Anas Sarwar has drawn attention to himself in ways likely to be deeply unhelpful to his own chances of survival in office and to Labour’s electoral prospects in Scotland. Amazing.

The case I made on @BBCr4today at 0720 was this. The disclosure of all documents and messages relating to the Mandelson appointment is vital. But the ISC requirement here goes much wider and (perhaps inadvertently) risks collateral damage to UK diplomacy. isc.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/u...

For obvious reasons, and on behalf of all who share my first name, I’m wearied by the many references to alleged, serious offences by “Andrew”. It wasn’t me. If headline writers are unwilling to spell out “Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor”, could they maybe say “AMW”? After all, “MBS” is widely used …

“You can’t get to [insert top ranking position] without being [insert exceptional, positive qualities]”. “This person went to [insert prestigious educational institution] so must be intelligent & knowledgeable”. Can we all, please, put these deeply misleading assumptions to bed? If not now, when?

Quacking Treason Public profiles of Jeffrey Epstein going back 20+ years present a near perfect description of a massive, hostile foreign intelligence operation directed at the USA and NATO and other allies. Why was this so widely ignored? What was Mandelson’s involvement? What next? A 🧵 /1.

Shocked to hear that Noam Chomsky is a deeply unpleasant person. Who could have guessed it.

Constitutionally significant indeed. If the government is willing to go along with this interesting interpretation of Parliament’s role.

Firmly worded, constitutionally significant letter to PM from the parliamentary intelligence committee: isc.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/u... Spells out how it is for a parliamentary committee and *not* government to decide on what is in national interest.

Quacking Treason Public profiles of Jeffrey Epstein going back 20+ years present a near perfect description of a massive, hostile foreign intelligence operation directed at the USA and NATO and other allies. Why was this so widely ignored? What was Mandelson’s involvement? What next? A 🧵 /1.

Great thread on a misreading of the foundations of US power that you can find as much among more "edgy" European as American elites

Latest thoughts on Russia - Ukraine, in case of interest. youtube.com/watch?v=ahRZ...

The MAGA 5 dimensional master strategists around Colby and Anton are playing Risk when they should be playing Railroad Tycoon

Many thanks to the German Consul General in Edinburgh, Christiane Hullmann @uk.diplo.de, @wienerlibrary.bsky.social & other speakers the Holocaust Memorial Day event at the New Town Church. I attach a contribution, one among so many, to the “individual stories” aspect of Holocaust education.

“Real conspiracies, sometimes major, exist. “Conspiracy theorists say real conspiracies, sometimes major, exist. “Therefore this real (major) conspiracy proves the conspiracy theorists right”. If we can’t overcome this sort of category error in our thinking, we really are sunk. Must do better.

“A vote is only a tool for us […] We do not want to join this pile of manure. We are coming to shovel it out”. Joseph Goebbels, 1928 Need to hear more?

“We enter the Reichstag to arm ourselves […]. If democracy is foolish enough to give us free railway passes and salaries, that is its problem. […] Any way of bringing about the revolution is fine by us. […] the state itself will pay for our fighting organisation”. Joseph Goebbels, 1928

“Do not believe that parliament is our goal. […] We are coming neither as friends nor neutrals. We come as enemies! As the wolf attacks the sheep, so come we”. Joseph Goebbels, 1928