In case of interest, I just gave an interview (discussion with two others) to the BBC, on the Ukraine “peace deal”. All comments, as always, gratefully received. youtu.be/xjYqZCrFJvQ?...

In case of interest, I just gave an interview (discussion with two others) to the BBC, on the Ukraine “peace deal”. All comments, as always, gratefully received. youtu.be/xjYqZCrFJvQ?...

Calling all experts on Bluesky who can shed reliable light on the impacts of Brexit: I know you don’t really want to, but I think we must … “Gully Foyle” has re-upped a November 2024 X 🧵 as a book claiming 75 “Brexit benefits”. Let’s go through them together. Many hands make light work. /1.

Calling all experts on Bluesky who can shed reliable light on the impacts of Brexit: I know you don’t really want to, but I think we must … “Gully Foyle” has re-upped a November 2024 X 🧵 as a book claiming 75 “Brexit benefits”. Let’s go through them together. Many hands make light work. /1.

A friend recently bemoaned, in the context of Russia-Ukraine, the USA’s apparently self- and globally destructive external policies, fearing American standing in the world would be diminished. “What could the explanation be?” he asked. “Blackmail by Putin” he said. The truth is far worse. A 🧵/1.

The reasons this line has little traction are: (a) most people will fall asleep by half way through the 2nd para (b) it fails to understand the motivation of those it seeks to persuade: a desire to hurt others, even if that hurts oneself (c) it’s already +/- accepted by pretty much everyone else

Overheard at the supermarket checkout just now. Supermarket checkout assistant: “So, it’s nineteen eighty-four …” Customer: “No kidding”.

A friend recently bemoaned, in the context of Russia-Ukraine, the USA’s apparently self- and globally destructive external policies, fearing American standing in the world would be diminished. “What could the explanation be?” he asked. “Blackmail by Putin” he said. The truth is far worse. A 🧵/1.

Brief thoughts this morning (around 09.50 on BBC Radio 5 Live) on the overnight incursions of Russian drones into Poland. youtu.be/tfbjJM7qeIU?...

Brief thoughts this morning (around 09.50 on BBC Radio 5 Live) on the overnight incursions of Russian drones into Poland. youtu.be/tfbjJM7qeIU?...

Latest thoughts from me, just now, on Trump-Zelensky and Russia/Putin-Ukraine. Not encouraging, I fear. I’d like to be proved wrong … youtu.be/rR1h5IUBOK8?...

Trump-Zelensky: discussion with Katy Balls (Sunday Times, Washington) and me, on BBC News, 9.30 am today. youtu.be/ZxIig3DCtk8?...

My further views, just now, on the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. Not cheery, I’m afraid. youtu.be/WOGVOnSFCr4?...

Latest thoughts from me, just now, on Trump-Zelensky and Russia/Putin-Ukraine. Not encouraging, I fear. I’d like to be proved wrong … youtu.be/rR1h5IUBOK8?...

The detail of NATO’s Article 5 is almost irrelevant. The credible belief, by friend and foe alike, that NATO will use overwhelming force to protect its members is key. Ukraine, it seems, will get none of that. Or, barely credibly. That’s the problem. For us all. Ukraine. Europe. US. World.

Trump-Zelensky: discussion with Katy Balls (Sunday Times, Washington) and me, on BBC News, 9.30 am today. youtu.be/ZxIig3DCtk8?...

In the, tragically, unlikely event that a just, durable peace deal to terminate Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is achieved, the credit will belong to all those people in Ukraine who stood firm over these last 11 years. They, and their president, richly deserve the Nobel Peace Prize.

My further views, just now, on the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting. Not cheery, I’m afraid. youtu.be/WOGVOnSFCr4?...

In the, tragically, unlikely event that a just, durable peace deal to terminate Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is achieved, the credit will belong to all those people in Ukraine who stood firm over these last 11 years. They, and their president, richly deserve the Nobel Peace Prize.

Further thoughts on Trump-Putin/ Russia-Ukraine, on BBC News, just now. youtu.be/jqO-_8HhL4M?...

Further thoughts on Trump-Putin/ Russia-Ukraine, on BBC News, just now. youtu.be/jqO-_8HhL4M?...

Latest thoughts from me on Trump-Putin, Times Radio just now: youtu.be/gKSPaBrqh70?...

Spoke to BBC just now about Trump-Putin and the prospects for Ukraine-Russia. youtu.be/4nx_HGephsA?...

If Putin is such a 5 dimensional strategic chess master then why is he entering year four of what was supposed to be a one week war to conquer Ukraine?

Latest thoughts from me on Trump-Putin, Times Radio just now: youtu.be/gKSPaBrqh70?...

Further thoughts on Trump-Putin and Ukraine-Russia, with BBC Radio 5 Live just now. youtu.be/94_0dfCz1Qw?...

Further thoughts on Trump-Putin and Ukraine-Russia, with BBC Radio 5 Live just now. youtu.be/94_0dfCz1Qw?...

Spoke to BBC just now about Trump-Putin and the prospects for Ukraine-Russia. youtu.be/4nx_HGephsA?...

Since the “debate” about the UK’s fiscal position seems to be hotting up again, with an apparent assumption that, somehow, not running budget surpluses to “balance the budget” over the ”economic cycle” is a problem, let’s just remind ourselves of what the last three centuries have looked like. Hmm.

Since the “debate” about the UK’s fiscal position seems to be hotting up again, with an apparent assumption that, somehow, not running budget surpluses to “balance the budget” over the ”economic cycle” is a problem, let’s just remind ourselves of what the last three centuries have looked like. Hmm.

The emerging consensus among some commentators that “the government has got it spectacularly wrong about Palestine Action” (or words to that effect) is strange, and troubling. A 🧵 /1.

I find this reasoning difficult. (Although I of course agree that perverse/inappropriate consequences are to be avoided if at all possible. And clearly, just wildly using the Act to pretend particular groups should be banned when the evidence isn’t there would be both wrong and dangerous). /1.

The emerging consensus among some commentators that “the government has got it spectacularly wrong about Palestine Action” (or words to that effect) is strange, and troubling. A 🧵 /1.

Another good interview by @tomfletcherun.bsky.social All the requirements he points to are correct and essential. It’s unlikely any statements, in public or behind the scenes, from Europe, have influenced the circumstances on the ground. US pressure - public, private - is a different matter.

Prospects for Ukraine - Russia ceasefire talks in Istanbul: youtu.be/vnD7zPRsXOo?...

No one can reasonably disagree with the Gaza plan @tomfletcherun.bsky.social proposes (see attached). Differences of detail? OK. Say it should be more ambitious? Perhaps. Reject it? No. Tom knows, as do we all: it needs cooperation from the parties on the ground. How is that to be brought about?

No one can reasonably disagree with the Gaza plan @tomfletcherun.bsky.social proposes (see attached). Differences of detail? OK. Say it should be more ambitious? Perhaps. Reject it? No. Tom knows, as do we all: it needs cooperation from the parties on the ground. How is that to be brought about?

Prospects for Ukraine - Russia ceasefire talks in Istanbul: youtu.be/vnD7zPRsXOo?...

Good interview by @tomfletcherun.bsky.social in Der Spiegel (published in German, if not a German speaker AI translation works OK). International aid cuts kill. We must do better.

Does the US need Europe? If so does the US leadership understand that? What are the implications for both sides, particularly in light of US political developments? An interesting exchange with @joerglau.bsky.social led to this rather lengthy 🧵 by me. In case of interest ⬇️ bsky.app/profile/andr...

It’s OK to claim as a political viewpoint @carolinelucas.bsky.social that upgrading the UK’s nuclear deterrent is “nuclear proliferation”. That’s your opinion. Baldly to claim the UK is breaking the terms of the NPT is misleading. There are differing views. HM Govt & others disagree with you.

Dear Bluesky, If you haven’t discovered Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social please do. He’s doing a great job live-tweeting the world, providing timely, fascinating updates on Iran-Israel & much else besides. Dig into original sources when you can: Mark’s feed provides a great starting point.

Any analyst looking at Israel's campaign against the Iranian state needs to be careful about assuming that the Israelis have no higher risk plan B for dealing with Fordow and other high value targets in Iran for scenarios if Trump decides against US involvement.

As @annettedittert.bsky.social would be the first to agree, no one can be 100% certain about the future. But the many Americans in the replies who seem to be triggered that “an ignorant foreigner” is sounding the alarm, should note: she’s the former New York bureau chief of national German TV.

Important point by @mims.bsky.social Probably correct. And, if so, worth noting that from the US Civil War to social media was about 150 years. The human tendencies which lead to irrationality, social breakdown & conflict - & effective means of stoking them - weren’t invented in Zuck’s dorm room.

Rapid, unscheduled disassembly sums it up.

Oh.

June 16th 2004

Spoke to BBC earlier about the Ukraine-Russia war, in the context of “peace talks” in Turkey, the United Kingdom’s Strategic Defence Review, Ukraine’s massed drone attack on the Russian strategic bomber fleet, and President Putin’s determination to retain power. youtu.be/1wmnRWMxCTM?...

Spoke to BBC earlier about the Ukraine-Russia war, in the context of “peace talks” in Turkey, the United Kingdom’s Strategic Defence Review, Ukraine’s massed drone attack on the Russian strategic bomber fleet, and President Putin’s determination to retain power. youtu.be/1wmnRWMxCTM?...