New research in Science from @dominic-rohner.bsky.social and others: USAID cuts caused violent conflict to spike immediately in areas that received the most USAID support and last for months. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

This is assuming prints of 0.4% We just did a 0.6%.

The local elections in one chart. Labour has been squeezed between the Greens in young wards and Reform in older working-class wards www.economist.com/britain/2026...

Er tikt een bom onder de begroting. Ze ontploft pas na de verkiezingen www.demorgen.be/nieuws/er-ti...

"But you don’t need to be some sort of game theory maven to appreciate that the small chance of a catastrophic outcome can outweigh the overwhelmingly likely but less than 100 percent chance of a trivial gain." substack.com/home/post/p-...

Grateful to @umisr.bsky.social for highlighting our new AER paper. The big finding: migration doesn't drain the home economy — it builds it up.

"(..) the USA is not the preferred partner of choice, nor are any of the traditional European defense firms—it is the Ukrainians. Let that sink in. Ukraine is now a world leader in one of the most important strategic capabilities all states face."

"Europe does not need permission to help Ukraine restore its borders. It needs the will. There is a basic rule that applies to nations as much as to people: pour your energy into the things you can affect," writes Academic director at the University of Amsterdam Andrew Chakhoyan in his op-ed.

One area of unequaled Ukrainian expertise? Shooting down killer drones🔥 This is a skill Ukrainian warriors wish they never had to learn — but mastered it anyway — because they had to. You can help them work their magic here: u24.gov.ua/sky-defense?...

Let's not make this "NATO's war".

@ahlfeldt.bsky.social, Nathaniel Baum-Snow, & Remi Jedwab analyse over 11,000 urban agglomerations to show that vertical growth of cities enhances land efficiency, reduces commuting, and boosts worker welfare. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

New RFBerlin Discussion Paper! Fenella Carpena & Simon Galle study how technical change affects workers across occupations. The mechanisms behind adjustment matter. 🔗 www.rfberlin.com/wp-content/u...

Let him sweat it out by himself.

What a paragraph. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

We need help to open the Strait that is already open to help protect it from the enemy we actually already defeated 100%

6/ If Trump paid any attention to the Ukraine War he would have noticed how warfare has changed. But he didn’t. And he blundered. Worse, the Gulf states are running out of interceptors to stop Iranian missiles and drones - meaning that soon more oil sites will be vulnerable.

There's been a bit of fuss recently about technology, trade & migration shocks. Well, I'm looking forward to teaching a short PhD course on how these shocks affect labor market inequality. 📍 May 18–22, 2026 at BI (Oslo) ⏱️ Format: 18 hours Syllabus: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/95d63... 1/3

Europe should do both: integrate more where feasible (India, Mercosur, Trans-Pacific,...), while simultaneously preparing to strike back hard against malevolent actors. No need for panic, but neither for naivety.

Meanwhile destroying any lingering hope of maintaining a solid Western alliance.

One option is retaliation. Another option is to ignore this bluff/BS and send as many exports as possible through non-tariffed EU/EEA members. (Sorry, Brexiteers.) Clearly, Dear Leader spent more time writing this post than thinking through the policy implications.

A related view: paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-stupid...

The French Army just announced that it will be part of the military force that goes to Greenland Germany is also part of it, on top of Sweden If the US invades Greenland, it means that two NATO nuclear powers will be fighting against each other

What is currently happening is an escalation management plan The goal is to deter the United States from attacking, in the same way that stationing troops in the eastern flank of NATO is aimed at deterring Russia Europe and Canada forces are not amassing troops to repel an US invasion

European tripwire forces make a military land grab of Greenland drastically more costly to the Trump admin: Harming European forces will force Europe to strongly retaliate economically and destroy any defense cooperation. In turn, this may trigger a backlash both in Congress and in the US military

The second China shock

Some people in the Trump administration may benefit from a clear visualization of what "Nothing" means.

Today is one of those days when I should have taken my own advice. Flooded with rage tweets on the other platform. Garbage way to communicate that only brings out the worst in people. All dunks, no conversation. Complete waste of time trying to engage there www.gelliottmorris.com/p/you-should...

Market statistics from EconJobMarket.org. Good thing there's Europe.

This paper shows: the 2022 energy crisis led to record global profits for fossil fuel companies. The US gained the most, with claims on US$301 billion, exceeding its US$267 billion investment in low-carbon energy. Half of profits went to the top1%, mainly through stock ownership

BI is hiring PhD candidates in economics. We offer: - a friendly and collegial department - strong faculty support during your PhD - access to very rich Norwegian microdata - a competitive salary - a strong track record in PhD placements. Please share #EconSky 🙏🙏 bi.easycruit.com/vacancy/3539...

an experience I think about a lot: I was visiting a class in DC Jail shortly after Kim Kardashian visited and had brought in her camera team. I relayed critiques of her "performative", "virtue signalling" acts I had heard on the outside. the response was somewhere between a shrug and an eye roll

De #Nobelprijs #Economie ligt onder vuur. Critici stellen dat de prijs een misleidende autoriteit verleent aan een discipline die vaak ideologisch gekleurd is. Lees het antwoord van prof. @simongalle.bsky.social (BI Norwegian Business School). 👉 www.tijdschriftkarakter.be/de-nobelprij...

One obvious part of Europe's Trump handling is not to give too much weight to each individual utterance, but to stop the US going completely off the rails. In the absence of a domestic version, arguably even "the adults in the room"

Extremely useful resource.

BI is hiring PhD candidates in economics. We offer: - a friendly and collegial department - strong faculty support during your PhD - access to very rich Norwegian microdata - a competitive salary - a strong track record in PhD placements. Please share #EconSky 🙏🙏 bi.easycruit.com/vacancy/3539...

This matter-of-fact letter is straightforward and non-partisan. It is more informative on the "Trump vs. Cook" case than most of the press coverage I have seen about it.

"Researcher who has distorted voter data appointed to Homeland Security election integrity role" www.nbcnews.com/politics/tru...

#NumbersDay qz.com/moodys-chief...

There is little precedent: no Fed governor has been dismissed for cause before

"Dag na dag ontvouwt zich in Gaza een van de grootste en grofste misdaden tegen de menselijkheid van onze tijd... De waarheid is dat Europa wel degelijk hefbomen heeft om Israël onder druk te zetten om dit bloedvergieten te stoppen en zijn doelstellingen aan de onderhandelingstafel te bereiken."

I was already an adult when I first heard that the French and the British continued their blockade of Germany after the armistice of 11 November 1918 until the Treaty of Versailles was signed, and that this lead to hundreds of thousands of death from starvation. I remained convinced that this /

After a remarkable stretch when wage inequality fell substantially, wage growth at the bottom is now once again falling behind growth at the top. This is bad news for working class Americans. t.co/1hp5EE9up5

Wow, weak July #jobsreport. Headline a touch softer than expectations, but real surprise is huge downward revisions to May & June. -Payrolls grew just 73,000, below expectations -Surprisingly large downward revisions to May (+144k to +19k) and Jun (+147k to +14k) -Unemp up to 4.2% #NumbersDay 1/

Please submit your papers to the series! #EconSky #UkrainianView #Ukraine

The big question for LLM’s is not “will they revolutionize life” or “will they take our jobs?” It’s “who will benefit and who will lose.” It’s a very tricky question, and this paper is a careful attempt to work out the subtle mechanisms. Spoiler: Most of the cost is borne by white-collar types.

New version of our paper "The Labor Market Impact of Technical Change: Inspecting the Mechanisms," with F. Carpena. www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~sgalle/wp-c... We present a stylized, tractable model on how occupation-specific technical change affects the wage distribution. #EconSky

Agree that this trade deal isn't the EU's finest hour. Accepting 15% tariffs instead of retaliating indeed undermines the rules-based trade system. Still, 4 months ago, the US risked veering fully towards Russia, whereas now, the NATO alliance seems in ok shape. Huge +. www.ft.com/content/11aa...

This piece is very moving, and reflects how I am feeling about the Israel/Gaza calamity. Silence in the Face of Gaza's Starvation is Absolute Betrayal of Holocaust Victims By Orit Kamir Originally published in Haaretz substack.com/home/post/p-... Thanks to @deanbaker13.bsky.social for posting it.

"The Late Show with Stephen Colbert," the most-watched late-night program on U.S. broadcast television and a frequent platform of satire aimed at President Donald Trump, will end its 10-year run on CBS in May 2026, the network said on Thursday.