COP30 PLENARY: COP pres André do Lago opens meeting "I am encouraged by the productive wk we have had, and it is heartening to see your readiness for the step change needed as we prepare to enter the 2nd wk of our conf, moving towards a strong and successful conclusion of our work here in Belém"

www.das-parlament.de/wirtschaft/k... Nach der ersten Verhandlungswoche gibt es gute Gründe für Optimismus: die Staaten verhandeln konstruktiv - auch wenn es natürlich noch viel Unterschiede gibt. Eines des wichtigen Verhandlungsthemen ist die Anpassung an den #Klimawandel. #COP30

NEW: Finalised COP30 agendas have been published, not including controversial items that various groups wanted to add But NB those items are being discussed under "presidency consultations" & likely to rear up again tmrw unfccc.int/sites/def... unfccc.int/sites/def... 1/2

A historic turning point for clean heating in Europe: For the first time, in the first half of 2025 sales of heat pumps in Germany have surpassed those of gas boilers. This is a big milestone, demonstrating that the transition away from fossil fuels in our buildings is not just a future ambition.

Great dissection of where the world stands on climate 10 years after Paris: better than ever; worse than needed. Start here: www.nytimes.com/interactive/... But lemme quibble a bit with the CO₂ₑ emissions pathways painted here. A quick 🧵

Beim EU-Umweltrat ist es nach intensiven Verhandlungen gelungen, dass nun auch die EU ein verbindliches starkes Klimaziel für 2040 hat. „Das ist ein wichtiger Fortschritt für das Klima & eine gute Nachricht für die dte. Wirtschaft, weil sie gleiche Wettbewerbsbedingungen hat", so Carsten Schneider.

The new UNEP report is out with the latest estimates of 2100 warming outcomes under current policies, NDCs, and net-zero targets. Here is how it compares to both the IPCC scenarios and other estimates (CAT and IEA, who will release their own updates soon!).

"Es ist jetzt keine exklusiv schlechte Zeit für internationalen Klimaschutz." – Neue #Krisenpodcast-Folge mit @jochenflasbarth.bsky.social, Umwelt-Staatssekretär und Deutschlands Verhandler beim Klimagipfel @cop30brazil.bsky.social www.zeit.de/politik/2025... @zeit.de @poolartists.bsky.social

📣 PRESS RELEASE #IPCC opens 63rd Plenary Session in Lima to advance work on key climate reports During the session, which runs from 27 to 31 October, “the Panel needs to settle the important matter of the timelines for producing the reports,” said IPCC Chair Jim Skea. 🔗 https://bit.ly/48Qx3AG#IPCC

EUCO conclusions on the 2040 climate target and ETS-2. It is now up to the environment ministers to agree on a specific number (most likely net 90%) and the next steps at the ENVI Council on November 4.

Another big milestone for industrial decarbonisation: Rondo Energy has just powered up what it calls the world’s largest industrial heat battery — a 100 MWh system delivering continuous high-temperature steam from renewable power. www.rondo.com/news-press/r...

Zum Klimaentscheid in Hamburg geht gerade viel durcheinander - da wurde mitnichten das Klimaziel um 5 Jahre vorgezogen, es wurde für 2040 nur energiebedingte CO2-Neutralität, aber nicht Treibhausgasneutralität beschlossen - das sind rund 5% Unterschied. Und Internationale Schifffahrt ist außen vor.

Happy to reshare our new Annual Review paper, which explores what it really means to exceed and return to 1.5 °C. For many in the Global South, overshoot isn’t a temporary “phase” but an existential condition. This piece asks what it means for justice, recovery & resilience in a world above 1.5 °C

Key Insights from "Hard to Abate, Impossible to Ignore" panel at @columbiabusiness.bsky.social: Decarbonizing steel and cement with electrochemistry, green hydrogen, and a "geological hack" business.columbia.edu/insights/cli...

The government’s own data rebuts Trump Admin claims that wind and solar are driving up electricity prices, Politico reports share.google/RTIXPPQMXrTH... “[T]he data say pretty much the opposite” of Trump & Secretary Wright’s claims.

Renewables (primarily solar and wind) have grown dramatically over the past five years while other electricity sources have been relatively flat. Renewables are on track to generate more electricity than coal in 2025 (and already have over H1 of the year):

DOE appears set to terminate tens of millions in funding for Project Cypress and South Texas Direct Air Capture Hub, the two big projects in the US DAC Hubs program.

📣 Attention: Early-career researchers from developing countries & countries in transition! Are you interested in becoming a Chapter Scientist and supporting author teams for #IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report? Apply by 18 Oct 2025 🔗 www.ipcc.ch/2025/10/07/c...

Good News: Erstmals wurde weltweit mehr Strom aus Erneuerbaren erzeugt als aus Kohle. Und: Solar- und Windenergie haben im ersten Halbjahr 2025 den kompletten, weltweiten zusätzlichen Strombedarf gedeckt + einen kleinen Anteil Kohle- und Gasstrom aus den Netzen gedrängt. table.media/climate/news...

We finally have a new paper out looking at how summary statistics from the AR6 scenario database are highly dependent on the sampling of the database. High profile statistics are often more representative of the model fingerprint, not the physics. www.nature.com/articles/s41... 1/

How can the #IPCC navigate generative AI? What does it mean for scientific assessment more broadly? New working paper looks at scenarios for AI adoption & resistance, w/ @dralaaclimate.bsky.social @shinasayama.bsky.social and Oliver Geden Reflections welcome! www.swp-berlin.org/publications...

NEW from @betonyjones.bsky.social @rooseveltinstitute.org: Tying Labor Standards to Clean Energy Incentives: How Biden’s Department of Energy Tackled Climate Industrial Policy. Betony shows how DOE reorganized to center workers in the energy transition. rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...

In my substack EU-Analytics, I now do monthly reviews of EU voting in the EP and the Council. September 2025 edition is here, with a closer look at voting on Ukraine, overall EP changes - with another centre-right to far-right majority - and a surprise German vote in the Council:

Some of the most interesting trends in electric car sales are in developing countries, here Indonesia. When price parity is reached & energy security is a concern, EVs will take off in the developing world. Check some charts here (mainly developed countries) robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

Last week the German Meteorological Society warned that "the 3-degree limit could be exceeded as early as 2050". While not possible to fully rule out, the assessed warming scenarios we published in the IPCC AR6 report find this to be extremely unlikely.

Are you a highly motivated early-career researcher from a developing country or a country in transition, and want to be a Chapter Scientist in the next IPCC report? Then here is your chance. Deadline 18 October 2025. www.ictp.it/opportunity/...

Action on #methane mitigation in the oil and gas sector is an emergency brake for #globalwarming. This will help to reduce methane emissions globally by 30% by 2030. 🙏 to the #Climate and Clean Air Coalition at #UNEP for bringing us together & #UNSG to take up our results in the #SolutionsDialogue.

NEW: China's president Xi Jinping unexpectedly joins the UN climate summit, by video, to offer his nation's 2035 climate pledge * Cut GHGs to 7-10% below peak by 2035, "striving to do better" * Raise non-fossil share of energy to at least 30% * Boost wind/solar to 3,600GW

It's absolutely astonishing: In just about 13 years, Norway has skyrocketed from virtually no sales of zero-emission battery electric vehicles to nearly 100% of all new passenger car purchases.

In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong". Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!

Today at #ENVI Council, ministers: ✅ held a policy debate on the European climate law and 2040 climate target ✅ adopted a statement of intent on the post-2030 #NDC, which outlines the EU's intention to submit its updated climate plan before #COP30 Get the details 👇 link.europa.eu/t3CHyY

Excited to share that my dissertation has now been published with @velbrueckw.bsky.social: www.velbrueck.de/Programm/The... It looks at how society became a concern for the climate sciences and how climatological theories of society have evolved since the mid-19th century.

New starter pack with @ipcc.bsky.social #AR7 scientists (bureau, authors, REs)! Full list: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho... For SR cities scientists see separate starter pack! @dianaurge.bsky.social @sherilee.bsky.social @siir-kilkis.bsky.social @janfuglestvedt.bsky.social go.bsky.app/2FuXb3Y

Heute ist die Plan B Studie zur Energiewende von Frontier für @dihk.bsky.social erschienen. Die @faznet.bsky.social hatte schon vor einigen Tagen über die dortigen Aussagen zu Netzkosten berichtet. www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt... Hier noch meine Gedanken dazu

🚨 OUT NOW! Our new @science.org study led by @kohrathefog.bsky.social is the first to comprehensively quantify the health impacts of and inequities in outdoor air pollution exposure across all stages of the US oil and gas lifecycle: extraction ➡️ transport/storage ➡️ refining/processing ➡️ end-use. 🧵

The #IPCC has announced the authors selected for its Seventh Assessment Report. 664 experts from 111 countries have been invited to participate as Coordinating Lead Authors, Lead Authors, & Review Editors. 🌍 51% from developing countries 🚺 46% women 🔗 bit.ly/AR7AuthorsPR

📢 Die Geschäftsstelle des Expertenrats für Klimafragen sucht eine*n wissenschaftliche*n Mitarbeiter*in mit dem Schwerpunkt Landwirtschaft und LULUCF. Der Arbeitsort ist Berlin. ​ Bewerbungsfrist 03.09.2025 🔗 www.expertenrat-klima.de/ueber-uns/ka...

New experiment - following the examples of many great colleagues such as @catherinedevries.bsky.social, @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social, @alanderminna.bsky.social and others, I am starting a new experimental substack 'EU Analytics', a (monthly?) look at EU developments from an institutional perspective.

The EPA cited my paper in their argument against the endangerment finding today. However, their point is completely backwards: my paper actually supports the EPA's 2009 range of 1.8C to 4C warming by 2100. www.nature.com/artic...

A very interesting moment in the latest Ezra Klein podcast with Jesse Jenkins and Jane Flegal. I've been thinking about this for a long time... The special report on 1.5C never said that 1.5C was a magical threshold. It said that 1.5C was much better than 2C... 1/

Is decarbonization dead? @janeaflegal.bsky.social & I join Ezra Klein to talk through how Trump just shredded America's most ambitious climate policy, what survived, and where we go from here. Listen @nytimes.com or wherever you get your podcasts. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/25/o...

Im ersten Halbjahr 2025 war Wind die stärkste Stromquelle in Deutschland. Solar hat erstmals die Braunkohle überholt und ist auf Platz zwei gelandet. Weitere spannende Grafiken gibt es in unserer Halbjahresauswertung 2025. www.energy-charts.info/downloads/St...

📢Der Expertenrat für Klimafragen sucht eine*n Generalsekretär*in für die Leitung der Geschäftsstelle in Berlin. Es erwartet Sie ein hochmotiviertes Team und eine spannende Tätigkeit zwischen Wissenschaft und Politik.​ 🗓️Bewerbungsfrist 31.7.2025 🔗https://www.expertenrat-klima.de/ueber-uns/karriere/

The legislative proposal for the 2040 target has landed: ▶️ 90% reduction of net GHG compared to 1990 (no separate target for removals!) ▶️ flexibilities as central element, incl. international credits & domestic CDR ▶️NDC will include an *indicative* 2035 figure climate.ec.europa.eu/document/dow...

Was macht gute wissenschaftliche Beratung für die Außenpolitik aus? Talkshowauftritte sicher nicht, Unabhängigkeit und Relevanz schon. Und dass Politik den Rat erhält, den sie braucht, nicht den, den sie sich wünscht. Mein Essay in internationalepolitik.de internationalepolitik.de/de/wegweiser...

Now free to read: 🚨 Draft 2040 climate target proposal 🚨 Commission to permit international carbon credit use from 2036, limited to 3pp of the 90 percent target. Excludes possibility of using them in EU carbon market. www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...

After French officials insisted to us France wasn't trying to decouple the 2035 and 2040 targets, Pres. Macron himself confirmed our reporting. From our morning newsletter: pro.politico.eu/news/euco-cl... (€) Story from Weds that explains why decoupling matters: www.politico.eu/article/fran...

🎯 As the EU shapes its 2040 climate target, international credits return to the spotlight. @felixschenuit.bsky.social‬ warns: credit quality, permanence and scalability must be ensured – especially for carbon removal. 🔗 buff.ly/QLMG8AK #EUClimatePolicy #CDR #Article6

New SWP publication: “International Credits in EU Climate Policy: Old Conflicts, New Challenges” We currently see a renaissance of international credits in EU climate policy. In this piece, I discuss the politics of the 2040 target & the possible role for Art. 6 www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

Is “abundance” basically “development” with a glow-up? What does it mean to talk about development when the Trump administration is basically on a project of reversing development? and how should we be talking about “development” in 2025, anyway? new article: www.compactmag.com/article/the-...