It is very very rare for France to be outvoted - in public Council votes, it has been the least outvoted country every year. This is also because usually France strikes a compromise. Here my reading is that Macron wants to be seen to be outvoted to evade blame for Mercosur in France.

In the era of affordability politics, making clean energy cheaper may be a more viable emissions mitigation strategy than making dirty energy more expensive. My latest over at The Climate Brink digs into the debate:

Clean energy supporters hope for high oil prices due to reduced supply, but the opposite is happening. Despite global tensions that should increase price, it is falling. I read this as the market pricing in future demand reduction due to electric vehicles esp. in Asia. OECD peaked already in 2006.

1️⃣ : Do you have research on the potentials, limits, or risks of using CDR in climate mitigation strategies? Then submit your work to our upcoming #EGU session. www.egu26.eu/session/56943 ❗ Deadline: 15 January 2026, 13:00 CET. Convening w/ @nadinemengis.bsky.social @felixschenuit.bsky.social

Trump says that the Venezuela incursion is all about “taking over” the country’s oil reserves. That’s imperialism. But is it even an imperialism that US oil companies would want? I spoke with @roryjohnston.bsky.social about the mucky reality of Venezuela’s oil reserves: heatmap.news/podcast/shif...

1/ 🔌🚗 New data published today for 2025 shows strong growth for electric cars in Germany! Or does it? Here are the facts, based on the recently updated #OpenEnergyTracker: ▶️ Purely battery-electric vehicles accounted for 22.2% of all new passenger cars registered in December.

Toda starts commercial operation of Japan's first floating wind farm reut.rs/4965G5l

Germany greenlights record 2,000 km of high-voltage grid extensions in 2025 Country approves several major high-voltage direct current connections from windy north to industrial centres in the south www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germany...

Congestion pricing has improved commute times, bus speeds, noise levels, traffic safety, and businesses and restaurants have seen more profits. A runway success by any measure. And a model for other cities too. Gift 🎁 link: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

ICYMI: I sat down with political scientist @samuel-bagg.bsky.social to discuss the crisis in our information environment and its roots in social identity.

"Man sollte die Leute besser beim Wort nehmen. Die US-Führung beim Wort zu nehmen, das heißt auch: Man muss das Schlimmste für möglich halten." Gedanken zu einem revolutionären Moment, dem, was geschehen ist, und dem, was womöglich geschehen wird. Neuer Newsletter:

The EU CBAM "has prompted China to expand its own emissions trading system, since the levy will be reduced if a carbon price has already been paid at source." Brazil, Mexico, Japan, Colombia and Turkey may follow. via @alicemhancock.bsky.social. www.ft.com/content/9e4a...

November was a month of high tension in the European Parliament. I went through 51 final votes and 10 public Council votes for my latest EU-Analytics review – and found three different working majorities at play:

November 2025 was the third warmest November on record in ERA5 at 1.54C above preindustrial levels – below only the records set in the prior two years (2023 and 2024):

📣 PRESS RELEASE #IPCC authors meet in Paris 🇫🇷 to begin drafting the Seventh Assessment Report More than six hundred experts appointed to the three Working Groups of the IPCC are gathering in Paris this week to draft IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report. 🔗 bit.ly/4ir09cC

G20 DECLARATION: Fascinating to see this doc explicitly "welcome" the "global stocktake" from COP28, which included the call to "transition away from fossil fuels"… This comes after it proved impossible to secure similar language at COP30, which was also chaired by Brazil

COP31: It's now officially, officially going to Turkey / Australia This 2-page doc sets out the division of labour: Turkey = host and "COP31 president" Australia = "president of negotiations" unfccc.int/sites/def...

Start into a difficult final. At #COP30. To fight #climatechange. For a livable planet.

Schützen, was uns schützt: Deutschland unterstützt den Tropenwaldschutzfonds mit 1 Mrd. Euro. Bundesminister Carsten Schneider erklärte: "Es geht um den Schutz der tropischen Regenwälder, der Lunge unserer Welt. Brasilien geht mit dem #TFFF einen neuen, innovativen Weg, den wir unterstützen." #COP30

The fire at #COP30 has been contained Delegates are advised that the venue will not reopen before 8:00pm, with further updates to be communicated in due time

COP30 PLENARY: COP pres André do Lago opens meeting "I am encouraged by the productive wk we have had, and it is heartening to see your readiness for the step change needed as we prepare to enter the 2nd wk of our conf, moving towards a strong and successful conclusion of our work here in Belém"

www.das-parlament.de/wirtschaft/k... Nach der ersten Verhandlungswoche gibt es gute Gründe für Optimismus: die Staaten verhandeln konstruktiv - auch wenn es natürlich noch viel Unterschiede gibt. Eines des wichtigen Verhandlungsthemen ist die Anpassung an den #Klimawandel. #COP30

NEW: Finalised COP30 agendas have been published, not including controversial items that various groups wanted to add But NB those items are being discussed under "presidency consultations" & likely to rear up again tmrw unfccc.int/sites/def... unfccc.int/sites/def... 1/2

A historic turning point for clean heating in Europe: For the first time, in the first half of 2025 sales of heat pumps in Germany have surpassed those of gas boilers. This is a big milestone, demonstrating that the transition away from fossil fuels in our buildings is not just a future ambition.

Great dissection of where the world stands on climate 10 years after Paris: better than ever; worse than needed. Start here: www.nytimes.com/interactive/... But lemme quibble a bit with the CO₂ₑ emissions pathways painted here. A quick 🧵

Beim EU-Umweltrat ist es nach intensiven Verhandlungen gelungen, dass nun auch die EU ein verbindliches starkes Klimaziel für 2040 hat. „Das ist ein wichtiger Fortschritt für das Klima & eine gute Nachricht für die dte. Wirtschaft, weil sie gleiche Wettbewerbsbedingungen hat", so Carsten Schneider.

The new UNEP report is out with the latest estimates of 2100 warming outcomes under current policies, NDCs, and net-zero targets. Here is how it compares to both the IPCC scenarios and other estimates (CAT and IEA, who will release their own updates soon!).

"Es ist jetzt keine exklusiv schlechte Zeit für internationalen Klimaschutz." – Neue #Krisenpodcast-Folge mit @jochenflasbarth.bsky.social, Umwelt-Staatssekretär und Deutschlands Verhandler beim Klimagipfel @cop30brazil.bsky.social www.zeit.de/politik/2025... @zeit.de @poolartists.bsky.social

📣 PRESS RELEASE #IPCC opens 63rd Plenary Session in Lima to advance work on key climate reports During the session, which runs from 27 to 31 October, “the Panel needs to settle the important matter of the timelines for producing the reports,” said IPCC Chair Jim Skea. 🔗 https://bit.ly/48Qx3AG#IPCC

EUCO conclusions on the 2040 climate target and ETS-2. It is now up to the environment ministers to agree on a specific number (most likely net 90%) and the next steps at the ENVI Council on November 4.

Another big milestone for industrial decarbonisation: Rondo Energy has just powered up what it calls the world’s largest industrial heat battery — a 100 MWh system delivering continuous high-temperature steam from renewable power. www.rondo.com/news-press/r...

Zum Klimaentscheid in Hamburg geht gerade viel durcheinander - da wurde mitnichten das Klimaziel um 5 Jahre vorgezogen, es wurde für 2040 nur energiebedingte CO2-Neutralität, aber nicht Treibhausgasneutralität beschlossen - das sind rund 5% Unterschied. Und Internationale Schifffahrt ist außen vor.

Happy to reshare our new Annual Review paper, which explores what it really means to exceed and return to 1.5 °C. For many in the Global South, overshoot isn’t a temporary “phase” but an existential condition. This piece asks what it means for justice, recovery & resilience in a world above 1.5 °C

Key Insights from "Hard to Abate, Impossible to Ignore" panel at @columbiabusiness.bsky.social: Decarbonizing steel and cement with electrochemistry, green hydrogen, and a "geological hack" business.columbia.edu/insights/cli...

The government’s own data rebuts Trump Admin claims that wind and solar are driving up electricity prices, Politico reports share.google/RTIXPPQMXrTH... “[T]he data say pretty much the opposite” of Trump & Secretary Wright’s claims.

Renewables (primarily solar and wind) have grown dramatically over the past five years while other electricity sources have been relatively flat. Renewables are on track to generate more electricity than coal in 2025 (and already have over H1 of the year):

DOE appears set to terminate tens of millions in funding for Project Cypress and South Texas Direct Air Capture Hub, the two big projects in the US DAC Hubs program.

📣 Attention: Early-career researchers from developing countries & countries in transition! Are you interested in becoming a Chapter Scientist and supporting author teams for #IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report? Apply by 18 Oct 2025 🔗 www.ipcc.ch/2025/10/07/c...

Good News: Erstmals wurde weltweit mehr Strom aus Erneuerbaren erzeugt als aus Kohle. Und: Solar- und Windenergie haben im ersten Halbjahr 2025 den kompletten, weltweiten zusätzlichen Strombedarf gedeckt + einen kleinen Anteil Kohle- und Gasstrom aus den Netzen gedrängt. table.media/climate/news...

We finally have a new paper out looking at how summary statistics from the AR6 scenario database are highly dependent on the sampling of the database. High profile statistics are often more representative of the model fingerprint, not the physics. www.nature.com/articles/s41... 1/

How can the #IPCC navigate generative AI? What does it mean for scientific assessment more broadly? New working paper looks at scenarios for AI adoption & resistance, w/ @dralaaclimate.bsky.social @shinasayama.bsky.social and Oliver Geden Reflections welcome! www.swp-berlin.org/publications...

NEW from @betonyjones.bsky.social @rooseveltinstitute.org: Tying Labor Standards to Clean Energy Incentives: How Biden’s Department of Energy Tackled Climate Industrial Policy. Betony shows how DOE reorganized to center workers in the energy transition. rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...

In my substack EU-Analytics, I now do monthly reviews of EU voting in the EP and the Council. September 2025 edition is here, with a closer look at voting on Ukraine, overall EP changes - with another centre-right to far-right majority - and a surprise German vote in the Council:

Some of the most interesting trends in electric car sales are in developing countries, here Indonesia. When price parity is reached & energy security is a concern, EVs will take off in the developing world. Check some charts here (mainly developed countries) robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

Last week the German Meteorological Society warned that "the 3-degree limit could be exceeded as early as 2050". While not possible to fully rule out, the assessed warming scenarios we published in the IPCC AR6 report find this to be extremely unlikely.

Are you a highly motivated early-career researcher from a developing country or a country in transition, and want to be a Chapter Scientist in the next IPCC report? Then here is your chance. Deadline 18 October 2025. www.ictp.it/opportunity/...

Action on #methane mitigation in the oil and gas sector is an emergency brake for #globalwarming. This will help to reduce methane emissions globally by 30% by 2030. 🙏 to the #Climate and Clean Air Coalition at #UNEP for bringing us together & #UNSG to take up our results in the #SolutionsDialogue.

NEW: China's president Xi Jinping unexpectedly joins the UN climate summit, by video, to offer his nation's 2035 climate pledge * Cut GHGs to 7-10% below peak by 2035, "striving to do better" * Raise non-fossil share of energy to at least 30% * Boost wind/solar to 3,600GW

It's absolutely astonishing: In just about 13 years, Norway has skyrocketed from virtually no sales of zero-emission battery electric vehicles to nearly 100% of all new passenger car purchases.

In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong". Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!