After months of wrangling and an epic list of delays, the Commission has finally released its Industrial Accelerator Act. This could turn into one of the EU’s most consequential industrial policy files in years - and the proposal is honestly not a bad place to start. Some quick thoughts:

Excited to share my newly published article with Olivia Quinn in Climatic Change, which explains why the Inflation Reduction Act passed Congress when the Waxman-Markey bill failed. It's open access so anyone can read it! link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Euractiv reporting that the Industrial Accelerator Act, slated to be presented tomorrow, may be pushed back again after it failed to secure approval on Monday At this point the sluggish "accelerator" is starting to feel like a piece of performance art... newsletter.euractiv....

FYI, oil price continues to climb (more worrying, for now, than the surge in natural gas)... 🤔 Brent is still well below the 2022 peaks, but the pass-through to retail prices is relatively quick and visible (notably at the pump), so a bigger risk to inflation expectations.

SPD-Fraktionschef Matthias Miersch hat im Stern angekündigt, bei der Umsetzung der GEG-Eckpunkte auf einer wirksamen Regelung zum Mieterschutz zu bestehen. Wenn die SPD das wirklich durchsetzt, würden neben den MIetern auch das Klima profitieren. (1/7) www.stern.de/politik/deut...

NEW SHIFT KEY I’m joined by @gbrew24.bsky.social to discuss the new US-Israeli war on Iran, different scenarios for how it could unfold (10 days vs five weeks), and how the war has already changed the global energy calculus: heatmap.news/podcast/shif...

Man muss die Einschätzungen von @lionhirth.bsky.social zur Solarförderung nicht teilen. Aber ihn quasi als Fossillobbyisten darzustellen, wie @jdoeschner.bsky.social es in diesem Thread tut, ist völlig daneben. (1/2)

The race to declare net-zero dead has begun. That’s deeply unfortunate. If we want to stabilise temperature (regardless of the level), there is no alternative to achieve net-zero CO2. Writing it off would delay progress in many ways, incl. by undermining the case for investing in key technologies.

NEW SHIFT KEY I’m joined by @janeaflegal.bsky.social to discuss the mess in the power sector: the two competing philosophies of running a grid and the mad rush to make everything about “electricity affordability” heatmap.news/podcast/shif...

China automates while America hesitates. I have a piece in the NYT today arguing that America's strategy to compete with China in manufacturing is fundamentally misconceived — and that we're heading toward a reckoning we're not prepared for. 1/ www.nytimes.com/2026/02/24/o...

The race to declare net-zero dead has begun. That’s deeply unfortunate. If we want to stabilise temperature (regardless of the level), there is no alternative to achieve net-zero CO2. Writing it off would delay progress in many ways, incl. by undermining the case for investing in key technologies.

Interested in shaping the next IPCC Assessment Report? I’m looking for a Research Associate to join my chair as a Chapter Scientist for the Energy Systems chapter. Apply by 16 March 2026 and become part of the team at Ruhr-Universität Bochum! www.wiwi.rub.de/job-posting-...

Climate change is mentioned much less frequently in US newspapers, declining since ~2022. Interestingly, it’s still a more frequent topic than in 2015/16, when the Paris Agreement was adopted and entered into force and the US withdrew from the agreement open.substack.com/pub/reportea...

It has occurred to me that the optimal level of marketing for my podcast Volts, upon which my family's entire income depends, might be higher than its current level of zero.

Second time after the Greenland crisis the EU Parliament puts the trade deal on ice. Arguably the EP is currently more powerful than the US Congress on trade policy.

It was carbon prices, that prevented a surge in coal-based power generation in 2025 in the EU.

The EU just isn't competitive…They are missing the boat on AI…Their green adventures are just too expensive…German manufacturing is toast…🙃 Meanwhile, via the @financialtimes.com: "Investors pour record sums into European stocks" www.ft.com/content/8017...

Example 13462: This transactionalism is poisonous for the EU and its role in multilateral institutions. www.euractiv.com/news/trump-p...

Following pushback & reactions on the stock market, Friedrich Merz specified his stance on the ETS. "I said that this event in Antwerp it is not the right instrument for generating revenue. Instead, it is the right instrument for enabling climate protection.. The ETS 1 .. has been very successful"

Great to meet with German Environment Minister Carsten Schneider about strengthening California's economic and climate partnerships with Germany. My message at the Munich Security Conference: The Golden State will always stand up for democratic norms, climate action, and the rule of law.

To round up this week, here is my flash analysis of this month's EP plenary. This includes: - Power: Who won the votes? - Coalitions - Far-Right Watch: Votes on which the far-right was decisive - Group Coherence - The national view: How often MEPs from each EU country are part of the majority

Great overview on the state of EU climate policy 👇 Tl;dr: "Despite the shifting political landscape, the EU has demonstrated its ability to act. But: major concessions on review clauses, flexibilities & conditions have increased policy uncertainty - posing new risks to policy instruments"

New headwinds for the ETS from EU leaders. EUCO President Costa: “It is true that there are some leaders who don’t like ETS, but there several leaders who like ETS and took the floor to defend the system and that’s the reason we need to continue our discussion on this issue.”

📢 Neue Analyse: Wie lässt sich eine #Infrastruktur zur Abscheidung und Speicherung von CO2 ( #CCS) aufbauen und mit welchen Kosten ist zu rechnen? Gemeinsam mit dem @oekoinstitut.bsky.social haben wir diese Frage auf Basis aktueller Projektdaten genauer untersucht. 1/x

Breaking: China’s CO2 emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline of 0.3% for the full year as a whole. This extends a “flat or falling” trend in China’s CO2 emissions that began in March 2024 and has now lasted for nearly two years.

It may be surprising that the EU's Climate Law - including the net 90% target for 2040 - passed in the European Parliament. A closer look at the adopted text explains why those in the EPP who favour weaker climate ambition could support the deal and did not vote with the far-right parties. /1

It may be surprising that the EU's Climate Law - including the net 90% target for 2040 - passed in the European Parliament. A closer look at the adopted text explains why those in the EPP who favour weaker climate ambition could support the deal and did not vote with the far-right parties. /1

Further working on my analytical tool for EU-Analytics. If you look at the (just 11) main votes in the European Parliament on migration in this legislature, the EPP now votes more often together with the ECR, PfE and ESN than with its 'von der Leyen' platform partners:

The wierdness of the current European Parliament, however, means that on the same day a hardening of migration laws is adopted with the help of the far-right, a broad majority of the centre plus the Greens adopt a progressive climate law, against the far-right:

As expected, all three votes today on the aspects of the 'safe third countries' list at EU level were carried by the EPP with the three far-right parties. Each of the votes looked like a variation of this (data via @howtheyvote.eu):

January 2026 was a reminder that EU politics is no longer just “centre vs far right”, it is increasingly unpredictable. In my new EU Analytics monthly review, I look at the 22 EP votes, the special case of Mercosur and a couple of Council votes and what they tell us about current EU politics:

Netherlands and China are on the way to being the next Norway, where internal combustion engine auto sales are nearly dead. BEVs were 65% of Dutch auto sales in December and 41% for 2025. In China, internal combustion autos market share falls to ~40%. robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/ #energysky

Germany substantially increased direct LNG imports, and import capacity during the past three years. Nominally, there is still a lot of underutilised import capacity.

A wonky but important development: Batteries are now eligible, along with coal plants, to receive payments to stabilize China's grid. That could put coal under more competitive pressure in the future: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

BREAKING: The EU has launched an in-depth investigation into Chinese wind turbine maker Goldwind. This is under the foreign subsidies regulation, which the commission uses to weed out subsidies distorting the single market (rather than trade flows)

🔆China electricity consumption to grow 5%-6% in 2026 said China Electricity Council in its latest 2025-2026 analysis and outlook report For 2026, it also expects power peak load to rise to 1570-1630 GW, and Solar capacity to take over Coal

Probably the most foolish fossil fuel subsidy. "The aging facilities that were scheduled for retirement are in disrepair and require expensive investments to keep operating safely [...] Ratepayers nationally will take on as much as $6 billion in higher costs by 2028 if this pattern continues."

I teach my students to always start the y-axis at 0 when making a bar chart for a reason x.com/WhiteHouse/s...

Probably the most foolish fossil fuel subsidy. "The aging facilities that were scheduled for retirement are in disrepair and require expensive investments to keep operating safely [...] Ratepayers nationally will take on as much as $6 billion in higher costs by 2028 if this pattern continues."

Starkes Wachstum bei Wärmepumpen und Biomasse-Heizungen, starker Einbruch bei Gas- und Ölheizungen. Das zeigt: Die Wärmewende läuft (fast) wie geplant. (Dass die Gesamtzahl weiterhin etwas niedriger liegt als im Mittel früherer Jahre ist angesichts des Vorzieh-Effekts 2023 nicht überraschend.)

New milestone in the EU energy transition: battery EV sales surpassed petrol cars for the 1st time in 2025. Some countries experienced high increases: Germany (+43.2%), Netherlands (+18.1%), Belgium (+12.6%), France (+12.5%) www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-evs... @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org

New from us - captive coal power plant projects linked to energy intensive industrial plants keep proliferating in Indonesia, jeopardizing the country's targets for coal phase out and net zero emissions, while also messing up energy planning.

1) Relevant to debate over pre-print by @jayvanbavel.bsky.social et al. — is 50 years of research on fallacies in "counting expert consensus." For a start, see STS researchers on 97% climate consensus campaign, which is the main model for the social media effort. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Bei der Aufregung um den CDU-Antrag zu EU-Klimaneutralität gilt es auf Details zu achten: Alle aktuellen Szenarien der EU Kommission gehen davon aus, dass die BRUTTO-Emissionen (d.h. alles emittierte, vor Verrechnung mit Bindung von CO2) im Jahr 2050 um nur knapp mehr als 90% sinken müssen. [1/3]

Bei der Aufregung um den CDU-Antrag zu EU-Klimaneutralität gilt es auf Details zu achten: Alle aktuellen Szenarien der EU Kommission gehen davon aus, dass die BRUTTO-Emissionen (d.h. alles emittierte, vor Verrechnung mit Bindung von CO2) im Jahr 2050 um nur knapp mehr als 90% sinken müssen. [1/3]

Local opposition to carbon capture, removal, & storage in Louisiana is driving new restrictions on development. It looks a lot like what's happened to renewable energy. What can that sector's experience tell us about what might be in store for carbon capture, removal, & storage? tinyurl.com/3djrpkup

New milestone for the energy transition in the EU: For the first time, wind and solar power generated more electricity (30%) than fossil fuels (29%). via @ember-energy.org

Texas power buildout in one picture: wind (green) laid the foundation, solar (yellow) is the new wave, and energy storage (purple) is clustering around load. This is the grid transition, mapped.

In year one, Trump’s policies have SLOWED - closed, delayed, etc. - 70 clean energy manufacturing projects worth $74B and 68,958 jobs. 109 projects have still ADVANCED - moving toward construction or operation - worth $61B and 61,107 jobs. www.the-big-green-machine.com/post-trump-s... 🔌💡

Today, the European Parliament voted to put the Mercosur trade agreement to the European Court of Justice for review. It was a politically momentous decision, very tight and carried by an unusual majority, so it is worth looking a bit deeper into it.