"Die Spritpreisbremse reduziere das hohe Preisniveau offenbar eher nicht. Der ADAC rief das Bundeskartellamt dazu auf, die Mineralölkonzerne "zur Mäßigung zu bewegen"." @tagesschau.bsky.social Freundliche Bitten sind dem Ernst der Lage unangemessen. Mein Aufruf die Energiekrise ernster zu nehmen:

Wir befinden uns in der größten fossilen Energiekrise. Die Ölproduktion is so stark gefallen wie die Nachfrage 2020 mit COVID. Die Bundesregierung sollte schleunigst darauf reagieren statt die Zeit mit Debatten über Mehrwertsteuererhöhung & Fracking zu vergeuden. Mein Beitrag im @freitag.de heute.

»Können wir jetzt endlich eine ernsthafte Diskussion über eine antifaschistische Wirtschaftspolitik führen?« Unser Buch des Monats kommt erst im Oktober – kann aber jetzt schon vorgemerkt werden: »Antifaschistische Wirtschaftspolitik« (shrk.vg/Wirtschaftsp...) von @isabellamweber.bsky.social.

»Können wir jetzt endlich eine ernsthafte Diskussion über antifaschistische Wirtschaftspolitik führen?« Das war meine Reaktion auf die Wiederwahl von Trump. Die Frage stellt sich bei jedem Rekordergebnis der AfD. Deshalb mein Buch. Kommt am 13.10. www.suhrkamp.de/buch/isabell...

"In the longer term, profits from fossil fuel companies flow to the people who own shares in them through retirement funds, hedge funds and other vehicles. A recent study [...] found that the wealthiest 1% of Americans reaped about half of the benefits after 2022". @isabellamweber.bsky.social

“The shortage of oil is similar to the [average] reductions in consumption during the corona pandemic.” Pleased to have been interviewed on the global consequences of the war on Iran for @klassekampen.bsky.social Thanks for the provocative questions @gustavgillund.bsky.social

Der Energieschock ist schon hier. Seine Konsequenzen kommen Schlag auf Schlag. Der Benzinpreis ist nur der Anfang. Eine weitere Inflation der Ungleichheit rollt auf uns zu. Unsere Analyse @surplusmagazin.de @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social www.surplusmagazin.de/isabellawebe...

Buckle up! #SupplyChain #EconomicCrisis #FoodSecurity 👇

Is anyone doing the calculations of what more corn used for fuel will do to food supply and prices this fall?

Die bevorstehenden wirtschaftlichen Folgen eines Krieges gegen den Iran sind enorm. Multilaterale Koordination ist heute wichtiger denn je, schreiben @isabellamweber.bsky.social und @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social.

Wer profitiert von der dräuenden Energiekrise? Unser Beitrag in @zeitonline.bsky.social basierend auf unser Forschung zur 2022er Krise und warum Übergewinnsteuern jetzt sinnvoll sind. www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2...

“By taxing away excess profit – a windfall from war – governments can signal to financial investors and the [fossil fuel] industry itself that it’s not so extraordinarily profitable and put less pressure on expanding production” thx @dharna.bsky.social for interviewing me for @theguardian.com

54/ “By taxing away excess profit – a windfall from war, rather than business acumen – governments can signal to financial investors & the industry itself that it’s not so extraordinarily profitable, & put less pressure on expanding production" - @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social This happened in 2022-3

Mit dem Krieg im Iran steigt der Ölpreis. Das treibt die Inflation an und rückt Verteilungseffekte ins Zentrum. Im #PaperDerWoche analysieren @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social und Kolleg:innen die Effekte der Energiekrise 2022 auf #Ungleichheit mit einem Fokus auf die #Übergewinne fossiler Konzerne. 1/

The US-Israeli war against Islamic Republic leads - besides senseless death - to an energy crisis that entails a massive wealth transfer from the poor to the rich. Unless we choose redistribution by ways of taxing excess profits. Must read by @isabellamweber.bsky.social @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social

From @isabellamweber.bsky.social and @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social, a cogent overview of the economic shockwaves headed for the global economy in the wake of the US-Israeli attack on Iran, all of which will exacerbate inequality.

The economic fallout from the Strait of Hormuz isn't a hypothetical — it's already there. Most people in Europe and the US just can't feel it yet. A threat on our new @newstatesman1913.bsky.social article: what's heading our way, and why the burden won't be shared equally. 1/

"One fifth, one third, one third, two fifth, nearly one half – these are the respective shares of global exports of liquefied natural gas, crude oil, fertilisers, helium and sulphur normally passing through the Strait of Hormuz."

Great (and worrisome) thread, worth reading it all, with the article it's from linked.

Excellent piece from @isabellamweber.bsky.social and @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social Not just how it plays out, but how it can be managed. These are 2 of the smartest people around, perfect for this moment. www.newstatesman.com/internationa...

The world energy shock is coming — it will deepen inequality in ways we've seen before. Our new @newstatesman1913.bsky.social piece argues that without urgent government action, the Strait of Hormuz crisis will ripple through our economies and rip apart our societies. Here's why. 1/

@isabellamweber.bsky.social & @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social show how the mechanics of stagflation are unfolding. That won't be only about price shock, but also about shortages, with distributive consequences, especially for the countries of the Global South. www.newstatesman.com/internationa...

Important read! 👇

Sehr wichtiger Thread - über die ungleiche Verteilung der Risiken und Kosten. "Energy and fertiliser stocks are surging in anticipation of stellar profits. The people who own those assets will be fine. Workers facing rising prices and stagnant wages will not."

„Profit margins are already near historic highs. Energy and fertiliser stocks are surging in anticipation of stellar profits. The people who own those assets will be fine. Workers facing rising prices and stagnant wages will not.“

56/ Covid shock was UNEVEN in world & weakest suffered most Trump's war will cause global disruptions Fuel, Fertilizers, food Pain at the pump, at home, at farms, at the grocery, in factories... TY Gregor & Isabelle - please share widely www.newstatesman.com/internationa... bsky.app/profile/greg...

Couple things leap out to me worth noting. One, this is a great reminder that extremely complex systems like the global economy can produce discontinuous outcomes to shocks. And this discontinuity can be both in time and in the effect. Second, I’m not an agricultural science expert but I do know…

The economic fallout from the Strait of Hormuz isn't a hypothetical — it's already there. Most people in Europe and the US just can't feel it yet. A threat on our new @newstatesman1913.bsky.social article: what's heading our way, and why the burden won't be shared equally. 1/

Excellent opinion piece by @isabellamweber.bsky.social & WID fellow @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social 👇

An excellent piece from @isabellamweber.bsky.social & @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social arguing for a permanent excess profit tax on oil & gas, the revenues of which could be used to protect households from cost shocks and fund low-carbon energy transition www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

"Our study’s policy recommendation is straightforward: a permanent excess profit tax on oil and gas, defined as returns above a specified threshold. ... taxing only the 2022 incremental US profits would have yielded $225bn ... enough to nearly double American clean energy investment that year."

Middle East war is set to reprise 2022's fossil fuel price crisis — and its war windfalls for oil and gas shareholders. Will governments redistribute those profits this time? Our op-ed in @theguardian.com

Though commodity traders caution Brent crude oil isn’t pricing in the full impact of war, its price has already risen faster and farther than in 2022 (today at >$100/barrel) and despite an oversupply in February. Add to that fertilizer and other raw materials shortages… a crisis is brewing

Worst of times, best of times. Looming fertilizer shortages push the world into a new hunger crisis. But for the concentrated fertilizer market the war on Iran is an extraordinary profit opportunity. Stocks are shooting up.

Man kann die Pressekonferenz dazu fast schon fühlen. Neue Heizungsfreiheit eliminiert Kostentreiber EE und erlaubt durch verpflichtende Biogasbeimischung endlich das Hochfahren der heimischen Gasindustrie, wobei inländisches Fracking wegen der hohen Gaspreise zum Wachstumstreiber wird 🤡

With the Qatari LNG production site for 20% of global LNG struck twice in the last 18 hours, European gas futures are now 25% higher than yesterday. The assurances that low European gas storage levels are not a problem because LNG can help ring hollow now.

Its Day 19. We have entered a new, more dangerous phase. Israeli attack on Iran's gas field "combined with the US bombing Iran’s coastline on Tuesday night is likely making traders realise the conflict can last for longer "the risk of damage to infrastructure is growing"

Though commodity traders caution Brent crude oil isn’t pricing in the full impact of war, its price has already risen faster and farther than in 2022 (today at >$100/barrel) and despite an oversupply in February. Add to that fertilizer and other raw materials shortages… a crisis is brewing

Will the War on Iran speed up or slow the transition away from fossil fuels? Here are two competing views: On one hand, the notion that higher fossil fuel profitability weakens the investment case for alternatives; On the other the idea that higher prices encourages alternatives…

Paul Ehrlich is dead. Like him or hate him, he played a key role in shaping modern environmental discourses. Here's a link to Chapter 2 of my recent book on the Growth-Environment Debate, which tells the story of Ehrlich's famed bet with Julian Simon. www.researchgate.net/publication/...

Middle Eastern crude for physical delivery (loading outside the Strait oh Hormuz) now costing upward of $150/barrel, more than the 2008 record of Brent. Just a first sign of the economic crisis in the making… www.newsofbahrain.com/world/128628...

In case you thought "at least this horrific war is getting us out of fossil fuels", here is what it's been doing to stock market shares: Fossil fuels +25% since new year. Renewables flat. Relative profitability is what ultimately matters for a transition. @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social

NEW: Fossil fuel pollution and other toxic chemicals from the war in Iran will spread across the region and last for decades just as smoke from burning oil wells went as far as the Himalayas following the Gulf War 35 years ago FREE read on @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Two weeks into the Iran war, here's what the markets are saying about the energy transition: 🛢️ Fossil fuel shares: +25% since new year / +212% since 2021 🌱 Renewable shares: flat / -44% since 2021 War is doing what climate policy couldn't -- in reverse.

À qui profite la guerre en Iran ? Dans une étude exclusive, @isabellamweber.bsky.social et @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social estiment la redistribution cachée de la manne fossile dans la bataille d’Ormuz. À lire absolument—à discuter.

À qui profite la guerre d’Iran ? Bénéfices et économie politique du choc d’Ormuz (@gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social & Isabella Weber) legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2026/03/1...

46/ full blown panic now. Significant military news: “US Navy is refusing to escort ships through the Straight of Hormuz: “The ‌Navy's assessments spell continued disruption to Middle East oil exports and reflect a divergence from President Donald Trump’s statements.” www.reuters.com/world/middle...

From the expert on mining the Strait of Hormuz

Good non-paywalled overview of Strait of Hormuz blockage link to food supply chain, as @rajpatel.org has already been documenting since the beginning of the war.

A #PreventableSurprise of global importance.