There are two types of people who know a lot about war - those who glorify it and those who study it to try to have it happen less, like an oncologist studying cancer. Edgelords and students. X kept the former, the latter moved over here.

Trying to be better about actually explaining so I will. There is no “the MEU” as if it’s one singular thing. There is only one 82nd Airborne Division. It is The 82nd. A MEU is a type of unit. There was a good thread about the various sizes of Marine units I’ll link when I can find it.

I’d also assess there’s a core cadre here who also understand how employment works, which is just as critical. Hopefully without offending anyone for either who else is on this list or that they’re not, I’d recommend @sodrock.bsky.social @emptybagofducks.bsky.social @johnridge.bsky.social…

“The MEU” Rarely have I ever seen it so clear that someone didn’t know what they were talking about.

Gonna continue being That Guy. This section implies PAC-3 and THAAD are counter-UAV weapons. They’re not. THAAD in particular is a BMD interceptor used against the ballistics the Iranians are also firing in significant numbers. I know this seems minor but this kind of thing matters.

A great reminder of how humanity has bent nature to our will, and nature is extremely unhappy about that and expresses this opinion at every opportunity.

ACTUALLY IT'S A WARCRIME TO SAY OUT LOUD! THERE'S NO FUCKING CONDITIONAL HERE!

Maintaining Freedom of Navigation was our one key job as global hegemon, because we are a maritime trading nation, inheritors of the British tradition. Trump is messing with it by not understanding that Iran and Hormuz must be solved politically.

Even more, I imagine, than the damage from the actual task force or their decision swill be the damage from the preemptive ass-covering by the officers who run the institutions.

Difficult to overstate how ominous this particular canary is for the state of the coal mine.

Tangent to this, I’ve idly wondered for a long time if my most regressive opinion is that at best the modern view that elected officials should reflect the views of their constituents is at best naive and at worst an abrogation of their duties to the governed. Their job is to represent…

This is simultaneously true and an indictment of basically everyone, both leaders that should be *leading* the public and the public too ill-informed to realize it on their own

People in my mentions are mad that I said the DoD's spending on lobster and crab was usually for special holiday meals for the troops because the spending happened in September. I guess people think the DoD just goes grocery shopping every week. Have none of you people ever heard of contracts.

Dignity is the one thing we can give to our friends, our enemies, and - equally as important - ourselves.

This is unfortunately completely correct and will be entirely lost on this site due to its apparent inability to reckon with how the USG, the DoD, the DIB, or some days the unidirectional flow of time work

We desperately need to pay civilians more and keep them on programs longer by promoting them in place. Officers also need a longer tenure on the programs they support.

I will say my lifetime has just been a series of events that continually lower my respect for people who work the markets.

I almost always agree with Bret’s takes but I think this one has an optimistic framing. Basically the zillion dollar question is how many mines are in the Strait by the time the shooting is over, *and do the people doing MCM know and believe that number?*

I'm beating a dead horse but it's not that there was "no plan," it's that there isn't a military solution period if Iran has been provoked into going big, short of "invade Bandar Abbas" The plan is -don't do a war with Iran if you don't have to -if you do then terminate it as quickly as possible

SecNav is necessary but insufficient, if only because he’s term-limited to his president. Most of Navy Secretariat SES have to be all in, with support from at least two of DSD Actual, CAPE, and Policy. And you need Congress to get out of the way.

I need people to Get This for naval procurement. BEST CASE, existing platforms is usually six or seven years from NDAA “purchase” to service. If it’s a backlogged yard (all of them), Christ only knows when you’ll get it. And if it’s new design, add min four years to create it.

Oh yeah, Congress can also tell them what they must fund. So the Services take the top line number they’ve been given and try to make all this fit. They never have enough money to fund it all, and hard choices are made. That can make POM briefs popcorn worthy.

This has been gnawing at me all day, so now I want to talk budgets. I spent the last several years sitting through the Service POM briefs as well as participating in the CAPE led budget reviews as the overall DoD budget was adjudicated and “balanced.” This is very process driven

Let’s do another thread. How does the Department of Defense write its budget? The smartass answer is slowly, poorly, and painfully. Unfortunately for those of us in the thick of it, that’s also the correct answer. Let’s chat.

The immune system is not a muscle. It is a cleansing fire. It causes collateral damage. It has a limited supply of fuel. It can get out of control. Don’t burn your whole house down every time by catching every disease without caution.

You bastards made the first five minutes of UP and you expect us to believe you’re worried about the audience needing therapy?

Alright, I’ve seen enough “But why?!?” quotes of this I’m going to give the world a quick primer on *one part* of how the DoD works. To the pedants out there, it’s late where I am, I’m tired, I’m gonna go fast and oversimplify so the basic point gets across in less than six DAWIA courses.

Their entire point was that a navy has to be well-funded before you need it because you can’t build one when you need it. If it’s not there, it’s just not there. This proves them right, not wrong.

Guys it’s not happening. The Navy doesn’t have the right ship mix nor near enough hulls nor near enough sailors if it did. It’s too small, overstretched, and underfunded. Which is what the navalists were trying to say before it was too late. Well, it’s too late.

“Superpower pursues its hard-nosed imperial interests by fighting hunger and disease“ was one of the greatest innovations in the history of the world and leftists nodded smugly while the gigacapital class destroyed it with hammers

Gonna keep posting these things until people stop trying to make up IHL/LOAC www.justsecurity.org/133397/sinki...

Here’s a table setter for what an escort mission would look like. With lots of stuff on mine warfare.

Today’s fun fact: the reason shipping lanes in the Baltic are so damn narrow is that there are anywhere from thirty to one hundred THOUSAND unexploded mines in the waterway from the World Wars, and the lanes are where the bottom has been swept

I mentioned it earlier but minesweeping is a pain in the ass. You need mine clearing ships, constant ISR, helo cover, CAP, all the while trying to stop small boats that can converge from any number of locations/direction from laying additional mines

Your regularly scheduled reminder that the only thing harder than mine-hunting is mine hunting under fire, and the range at which Iran can make that true is, well, horrifying.

People calling the sinking specifically a war crime makes me feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Even if it were true it was completely unarmed for that exercise, it stretches the bounds of credulity that that makes a warship off limits. Like...ltot of bad stuff is going on without making shit up.

For the gazillionth time US/Israel-Iran hostilities violate the UN Charter and may be illegal under US law. Under the context of ongoing hostilities, CHARLOTTE sinking DENA may prove unwise but it’s not a war crime, and POTUS riffing on it cruelly doesn’t change that fact.

Far more than is wise or feasible, at far greater cost in blood or treasure than even pessimistic estimates can capture right now.

I need people to understand that this *exact* occurrence is why forcing the Strait of Hormuz back open was the U.S. Navy’s nightmare scenario for the 15-20 years we let ourselves ignore the PLA.

TL;DR not a fucking war crime

To put some numbers to this, the FY26 Army ask to Congress was US$76.6B for 954K end strength. That’s an average of $80K/soldier, which would admittedly fall as the force got less top heavy as we enlisted a gazillion soldiers just to put people in country (a terrible way to do COIN but what we’d do)

To be clear, the DoD does not actually want your good for nothing kids, we love the AVF, this administration just says crazy shit. They just thought this would sound cool as part of their "nothing is off the table" talking point.

The usual estimating metrics for occupying hostile territory applied to Iran give you a figure near about of the entire U.S. Army. Not the active duty component. The entire Army. At a deploy:dwell ratio of 1:2 (bare minimum) you’re talking about adding 1.5 million soldiers, ROM.

I have more simulated sinkings of USN aircraft carriers under my belt in wargames than the Fleet has carriers. More of those carriers were under the command of uniformed O-5/6s than not. I’ve never not sunk a carrier against uniformed officers. I have never worn the uniform.

“Roughly” as used here could also be used in the sentence “My house is roughly on the Moon”

A simple summary, as always. Should CHARLOTTE have sunk DENA? Open question. Within the context of hostilities, was the shot legal? Almost certainly.

The Battles of the Atlantic would have melted brains, my God. This is absurd.

Not a war crime. Doesn’t make it ethical, doesn’t make it legal (though within the context of just the torpedo attack as a part of hostilities it’s probably legal), but not a war crime.

there's a really good and even handed AAR about MC2002 but I can't remember where it is (DTIC maybe?) Anyway the core problem is it attempted to combine a computerized wargame with a real world training exercise, which tbh is not great event design

@*gork what was Standing Order 154 and what was the LACONIA Order?