As we approach the 30th United Nations Climate Change conference, @dialoguescc.bsky.social asked @glenpeters.bsky.social: is limiting the temperature increase to 1.5°C still possible? journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

If you want more figures on the UNEP Emissions Gap Report emission trends (Chapter 2), then you can't go past @wflamb.bsky.social page... This is the change in total global GHG emissions from 2015 to 2014. Figures and data here: lambwf.github.io/UNEP-Gap-Rep...

"Here is the graph, which is so wild, the climate scientist had to call a colleague & check it" It is true actually! In the Global Carbon Budget we do not usually show the LUC like this, because of interannual variability & uncertainty. But it is what the data says! politiken.dk/klima/art106...

As part of the GCP-Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes-2, we recently published the Australasia's CH4 and N2O Budgets. The carbon budget was published in 2023, both papers, led by Yohanna Villalobos and a great team of collaborators. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions rise again in 2024, up 2.3%. This is our collective progress, 10 years after the Paris Agreement. www.unep.org/resources/em... 1/

Two years ago we had a commentary on how future scenario databases could look. We suggested a more CMIP like approach, with peer reviewed scenario protocols, an open process & open data, community efforts, etc, to encourage (probably not solve) inclusivity. www.nature.com/articles/s44... 1/

There is increasing talk about overshoot of 1.5°C, particularly that *now* we can only achieve 1.5°C by first overshooting 1.5°C. Well, sorry to tell you, 1.5°C have always been overshoot scenarios. Here from the original 'SSP' 1.5°C scenarios published in 2018. [Overshoot is a scenario design]

The National Party of Australia dumped its Net Zero policy as Australia is moving too fast, & faster than its peers in the OECD. Well, fossil CO2 emissions in the last 10 years have gone down * -0.5% per year in Australia * -1.4% per year in the OECD Australia is somewhat of a laggard...

Although conceptually appealing, reliance on offsets has fatal flaws: * Difficult to ensure that they represent real emissions reductions * Ensuring that emission reductions are ‘additional’ * Crucial to ensure that the CO2 is locked away permanently ICYMI: www.nature.com/articles/d41...

India's rainfall in October was about 50% higher than normal for the month. It continues to be a wet year. May was the wettest May since records began in 1901. robbieandrew.github.io/india/index....

Where are we on climate action? The bottom black line is countries that submitted new commitments (on time), the dotted line is global emissions. Blue shading are the commitments. That is the progress 10 years after Paris... unfccc.int/process-and-...

"The global oil market may be at a tipping point as signs of a significant supply glut emerge" writes the IEA. Tepid demand due to "subpar economic conditions, increasing vehicle efficiencies, & robust electric vehicle sales in many markets." 😮 www.iea.org/commentaries...

Exactly. The same with CDR and overshoot...

deeply wild clip of a fossil fuel economist on norway's state broadcaster claiming - 3 degrees of warming is a "problem we can live with" - Extreme weather is not a threat to human welfare - We need to dig up Norwegian oil and gas to help 'poor Africans in huts' get rid of polluting cooking fuels

I am not sure the NRK Debatten on costs of climate policy was that helpful... tv.nrk.no/serie/debatt... In simplified terms, the IPCC is clear, mitigation costs less than impacts, & more mitigation leads to more benefits (with high confidence). The IPCC text is hard to pass, so a thread... 1/

Finland has a goal to be net zero GHG emissions by 2035. Emissions were declining, the LULUCF removals were strong, the plan was looking good, but then LULUCF collapsed. Net GHG emissions have actually risen over the last decade! www.treasuryfinland.fi/investor-rel... 1/

Here's something that's not talked about enough The air pollution from burning fossil fuels kills an estimated 10 million people a year 1 in 6 deaths is caused by fossil fuels www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

How unprecedented is power demand growth in the US? Not unprecedented at all, according to the data (versus the media, consultants, SoMe, ...). [small caveat: figure shows generation, but desired demand may be higher] @hannahritchie.bsky.social www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/usa-electr... 1/

One of the most dramatic "blips" at a global level, ever. robbieandrew.github.io/internationa...

Debate on forest uptake in Norway often ends up discussing deforestation. Everyone agrees, we should stop deforestation. So let's stop it. Though, net forest change in Norway is relatively small. It is not the elephant in the room. www.nmbu.no/forskning/st... 1/

Hmmm, I think they mean CO2 levels in the atmosphere (the CO2 concentration), not emissions. A common confusion, emissions and concentrations... (though, the title is still correct, just not what the WMO report is about) www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10... 1/

📣 Last days to apply as a Chapter Scientist to support author teams for IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report. The deadline for applications is 18 October 2025. More details: lnkd.in/dGvmmWeC

Wow, thanks for finding that. I had sort of forgotten about it. I have been looking for an article that summarises these issues. I was looking in the wrong place...

Linking existing models to extend energy system & integrated assessment analysis is increasingly common practice, but little attention has been paid to the details, the trade-offs, & the interpretation of the interlinked model system. Look, no figures! www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

A Maximum Sectoral Effort "can reduce Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) by >50% globally, increase [the] role of the land sink in storing carbon, & more evenly distribute CDR contributions & associated side-effects across regions compared to CO2 pricing alone" iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... 1/

📣 Attention: Early-career researchers from developing countries & countries in transition! Are you interested in becoming a Chapter Scientist and supporting author teams for #IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report? Apply by 18 Oct 2025 🔗 www.ipcc.ch/2025/10/07/c...

Why didn't Chinese fossil CO2 emissions peak in 2013? It looked like Chinese emissions might peak in 2013, after declines in 2014 & 2015, but since then, improvements in the CO2 efficiency of the economy slowed significantly. CO2 will peak if efficiency improvements return. See ALT text. 1/

🚨NEW PAPER🚨 We all know the 2022 energy price shock fueled the cost of living crisis. It also caused a profit bonanza for the very rich. We show the US reaped the largest profits ($377bn) of any country. 50% went to the richest 1%, only 1% to the bottom 50%. A🧵 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

There is a lot of talk about a peak in Chinese fossil CO2 emissions. Carbon Monitor already has estimated a decline in Chinese CO2 in 2024 (last year) of -0.44%. carbonmonitor.org/variation The Global Carbon Budget has a 0.7% increase in 2024. Across two datasets, we don't know if up or down!

"It is the model with the most scenarios that has the largest influence on 1.5°C scenario findings. Individual studies have only a small or negligible impact on most findings," says @idasogn.bsky.social cicero.oslo.no/en/articles/...

My estimates of how much Norway's CO₂ emissions have been reduced as a result of EVs, PHEVs, and biofuels. robbieandrew.github.io/EV/

How much must coal go down by 2050? Well, it depends on the model... AIM has small reductions & few scenarios, REMIND has high reductions & many scenarios. Statistics presented in IPCC therefor give high reductions. Without REMIND, reductions lower (red line with R) www.nature.com/articles/s41...

New paper with @glenpeters.bsky.social in Nature Communications today. We show how models and studies with a lot of scenarios in the IPCC scenarios database have a large impact on key findings, including emissions reductions, net-zero GHG year, and coal, gas, and oil consistent with 1.5°C.

We finally have a new paper out looking at how summary statistics from the AR6 scenario database are highly dependent on the sampling of the database. High profile statistics are often more representative of the model fingerprint, not the physics. www.nature.com/articles/s41... 1/

this is a really good video about how increases in CO2 affect plant growth. the channel only has a few dozen subscribers, which is criminal.

I'm on my way to Vienna to participate in the first Overshoot Conference, at IIASA. I'll present in the theme of "Highest possible mitigation ambition under overshoot": "Towards a framework for aligning national mitigation scenarios with 1.5°C in an era of overshoot" with @roisinmoriarty.com

Some of the most interesting trends in electric car sales are in developing countries, here Indonesia. When price parity is reached & energy security is a concern, EVs will take off in the developing world. Check some charts here (mainly developed countries) robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

The #IPCC is now hireing ‘chapter scientists’ to support the author teams for the upcoming IPCC Report. If you are an early career scientist with strong synthesis and organisational skills, and from a developing country or a country in transition, do check this out! www.ictp.it/opportunity/...

Have Chinese greenhouse gas emissions reached a peak? Many people seem to be boldly saying yes. I think it is too premature. Lots of good things happening in China, a peak is expected soon, as we have been saying for 10 years... (in Norwegian) www.energiogklima.no/to-grader/ek...

Are you a highly motivated early-career researcher from a developing country or a country in transition, and want to be a Chapter Scientist in the next IPCC report? Then here is your chance. Deadline 18 October 2025. www.ictp.it/opportunity/...

My radical figure for the day. Chinese GHG emissions scaled to 2023 (the last data point in the EDGAR database). A 7-10% drop would take GHG emissions back to 2020 levels. In other words, from 2020 to 2023, Chinese GHG emissions grew ~10%. 1/

The rise and fall of the internal combustion engine, China edition. robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

The drop in CO2 uptake on land (LULUCF) in Finland and Sweden isn't without political consequence. Finland and Sweden now asking the EU for more flexibility. Norway has also made similar comments (but is not an EU member country). www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

As a reminder, land areas (where we live) are warming around twice as fast as over the oceans. Subsequently, most of us are 'feeling' temperatures rising faster than the global mean record. Graphic from zacklabe.com/climate-chan...

India has broken my graph. 30 GW of renewables added so far this year, ahead of 28.6 GW for all of 2024. robbieandrew.github.io/india

It is great to see five contributors to IPCC AR7 coming from little @cicero.oslo.no in Oslo, Norway (where?) with only 100 or so employees (including admin and comms). Who are they? 1/

Det skjer noe med utslippene i Kina for tiden. Men er det for tidlig å juble? Cicero-forsker Glen Peters tror det.

🔬 New paper alert: "The role of artificial intelligence in climate change scientific assessments" @plosclimate.org As #AI adoption accelerates, should @ipcc.bsky.social integrate these tools? Can LLMs (chatbots) communicate findings while maintaining scientific rigour? doi.org/10.1371/jour... 1/9

US fossil fuel CO2 emissions are set to rise 1.8% in 2025, according to the US Energy Information Agency. Is this because of Trump? 1/