Important. National GHG inventories call most lands “managed” and thus include huge amounts of CO2 removals from tree growth, resulting in net-negative emissions. Bookkeeping approach quantifies emissions and removals only directly linked to human activities, resulting in net-positive emissions.

We have a pretty good understanding of the differences between GHG emission estimates, but when it comes to some sectors (e.g., land), estimates seem all over the place! Why is this? @wflamb.bsky.social has you covered... essd.copernicus.org/articles/18/... 1/

The US EIA have just revised down again their forecast growth for US CO₂ emissions in 2026, to -2.4%, with a much milder March than had been forecast. Despite a large increase in prices of oil products, they see little change in consumption. More interpretive figures: robbieandrew.github.io/USA/

#NowHiring The @wmo-global.bsky.social , which with UNEP set up the IPCC in 1988 to provide policymakers with assessments of science related to climate change, is recruiting the position of Secretary of the IPCC to lead its Secretariat. ➡️ lnkd.in/gsGqXPGU 📆 Apply by 16 April 2026

The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is problematic, a 20-year time horizon is even more problematic... CO2 & CH4 behave differently making the GWP inappropriate (GWP* better if used correctly, separate targets better, etc) @hausfath.bsky.social explains www.theclimatebrink.com/p/using-a-20...

In spite of all the talk of Claude Code and Codex meaning the end of humans writing code, software job adverts are actually going up, according to @jburnmurdoch.ft.com's crunching of millions of job ads for this week's The AI Shift www.ft.com/content/7325...

After several years of decline, is the Norwegian land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sink making a recovery? This is so hard to know, as there are so many factors in different directions. robbieandrew.github.io/country/?cou... 1/

A new paper for anyone interested in the role of forest conservation, forestry, and forest products as climate solutions. Led by Didac Pascual and Anders Ahlstrom from Lund University. theconversation.com/swedens-old-...

After several years of a declining sink, LULUCF is making a recovery in Sweden. The 2026 GHG inventory submission has a sizeable revision to LULUCF in the last years. robbieandrew.github.io/country/?cou...

The updated National GHG Inventories are starting to come in, first the EU countries. Germany had a huge revision to its LULUCF estimates last year, with another sizable revision this year. The uncertainty in LULUCF is...large! robbieandrew.github.io/country/?cou... 1/

The Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock does speak some sense... "Economics is not a science" www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03...

What happens to the climate system when global CO2 emissions reach zero? We all know that the temperature stops rising (stays approximately constant), but there are a few implications... rdcu.be/e73i4 1/

The US EIA is expecting electricity demand in Texas to increase by 10%-15% between 2025 and 2027. After two decades of zero growth in electricity in the US, data centres are pushing huge change. www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

The third #EYECLIMA Outlook is published, summarising all the deliverables in the third year of the EYE-CLIMA project. Check it out: eyeclima.eu/products/eye... Here is a snapshot of one deliverable, identifying point sources of CH4 using satellites.

I continue to be fascinated by the phenomenon whereby an expert engages with any of the LLMs on their field of expertise and is instantly horrified by the wrong answers, and then goes on to use it for things they are not experts in as though it won’t be just as bad for those.

Interested in shaping the next IPCC Assessment Report? I’m looking for a Research Associate to join my chair as a Chapter Scientist for the Energy Systems chapter. Apply by 16 March 2026 and become part of the team at Ruhr-Universität Bochum! www.wiwi.rub.de/job-posting-...

🚨 New paper: Coupling integrated assessment and energy system models 🚨 Planning future energy systems requires bridging two fundamentally different scales: long-term transformation pathways spanning decades, and short-term power system operations unfolding hour by hour. #EnergySky #PyPSA 🧵

Come work with us! 🧪🌐🧑‍💻🌿🐸❄️ I am hireing a #postdoc in Climate Change Ecology to work on Ecological Synthesis and support the upcoming #IPCC report as a Chapter Scientist (CH14: terrestrial, freshwater and cryopspheric biodiversity, ecosystems, and services. #IPCC #AR7 @ipcc.bsky.social

“when everyone had a 2030 target, [there was] much more focus from customers to have this market up and running very fast”. But who is dropping their 2030 targets? Who has weakened them? I guess the USA, ok, but how does US relate to Equinor & CCS? EU targets are only getting stronger...

New episode of with @glenpeters.bsky.social on the following topics @cicero.oslo.no Global warming & climate change progress 1.5°C vs 3°C warming scenarios Net-zero emissions and climate targets Global emissions & peak emissions IPCC climate projections Fossil fuels in 2050 youtu.be/xfvA8_N1xqk?...

The Remaining Carbon Budget (RCB) varies with different temperature levels & probabilities, based on Forster et al 2025 (calculation via @robinlamboll.bsky.social). Though, the variation in the RCB due to non-CO2 emissions spans 1.5°C-1.7°C & many likelihoods. essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...

India's solar is making a solid contribution to daily generation, even in the middle of winter. (In fact the insolation minimum is during the monsoon season.)

No surprises there! Lowest monthly car sales for decades in Norway after a sharp rise in sales tax on EVs came into effect with the new year. Total 2218 new passenger cars registered in January, of which 94% were BEV.

The thing about this video by @climateadam.bsky.social is that the mainstream media & commentariat does not pick up on any of the crap pushed about AI (well, rarely). Some of the AI claims are rather easy to debunk, but for some reason no one wants to... www.youtube.com/watch?v=py0X...

If... "you screw up your economy trying to drastically reduce your emissions" Ah, which country is doing that (or even trying to do that)? Countries deploying wind, solar, EVs, etc, seem to be doing just fine to me. Modelling does not suggest that climate policy screws your economy either. 1/

Record-high timber prices in Norway last year.

There has been another record harvest in Norwegian forests. Most of the growth is in sawlogs, particularly spruce. There will be some happy farmers... 1/

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has regular reports (monthly, quarterly) which provide short-term projections of coal, oil, & gas. As of January 2026, it looks like fossil CO2 emissions in 2026 will be relatively flat: the drop in coal (-1%) offset by growth in gas (2%) & oil (0.8%). 1/

You wonder how emissions scenarios generated by IAMs are used- in practice - by decision makers, both in the public and private sector? Read our new paper!

How are scenarios used? Scenarios are used for contrasting purposes but are often actively interpreted and processed by informed users who are aware of different scenarios’ strengths, limitations and uncertainties. www.nature.com/articles/s44... 1/

Oh, looks like we should pull out the research we did 20 years ago on the importance of multi-regional models... (yes, yes, these things need to be repeated I guess, but this one should have been settled decades ago) www.nature.com/articles/s41...

The reduction in oil from 2019 to 2050 varies a lot depending on model, scenario, & climate outcome. There is a lot of overlap, despite a shifting distribution. A level of oil in 2050 could be consistent with 1.5°C or 2.5°C, but the rest of the energy system counterbalances. 1/

There was a record increase in CO2 in the atmosphere in 2024, though the size of the increase depends on the dataset. All datasets will give a similar cumulative increase over time, as end of year affects cancel. academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-... 1/

Back in 2008, the EIA believed that natural gas production would be flat through 2030. Then came fracking.

Preprint out today in ESDD. SRM's biggest risk is us. 'Peak-shaving' is a best-case scenario, with strong governance and international cooperation. We propose a framework for messier geoengineering futures, which look more like, you know, the news. /1 egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

While our best estimate is that US fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions went up about 2% in 2025, the EIA is currently forecasting a drop of 2.2% in 2026. robbieandrew.github.io/USA/

Electric vehicles with off-grid solar are competitive with or cheaper than old style petrol/gaslone vehicles in many African countries before 2030; and cheaper in all countries by 2040 - often by a wide margin. That's even allowing for (high) financing costs. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

🎉 My first publication is out in Geoscientific Model Development! 📝 “Review of climate simulation by Simple Climate Models” ⭐ Selected as a GMD Highlight Article Link: doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...

Over the whole of 2025, India's national rainfall was only about 6% higher than in 2024, but the record-wet May is one of the reasons for much lower electricity demand last year. robbieandrew.github.io/india/

In the latest carbon budget, we revised... * up land-use change emissions * up the ocean sink (now takes up 29% of total emissions) * down the land sink (now takes up 21% of total emissions) * the "budget imbalance" now has zero trend What does this mean? www.nature.com/articles/s41... 1/

New paper! How are emissions scenarios 📉 from the IPCC (and other sources) actually used by decision-makers? We asked them, and the results are out just in time for the holidays 🧑‍🎄🤶🧑‍🎄 (with @idasogn.bsky.social & @climansen.bsky.social)

According to the Norwegian National Forest Inventory (NFI), annual tree volume growth continues even in old growth forests. Peak growth is around 40 years, but after 80 years the annual increment stays constant (meaning the volume grows). landsskog.nibio.no

There is a strong relationship between temperature & cumulative CO2 emissions. The relationship is different for CO2 concentration, but approximately linear: * CO2 concentration grows faster than cumulative emissions * Declining CO2 emissions leads to declining concentration rdcu.be/d9Rnm

My pet theory remains that most of the fuss about 2023 was because most of the projections (from late 2022) were wrong since they got El Nino wrong (they thought it was La Nina). It is not easy getting El Nino right either: 2023 is either La Nina or El Nino depending on lags and annualisation.

Hydrogen does not directly warm the climate, but interacts with OH to extend the life of CH4. "More hydrogen means fewer detergents [OH] in the atmosphere, causing methane to persist longer &, therefore, warm the climate longer" phys.org/news/2025-12... Article: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

The Global Carbon Project has just published the most comprehensive Global Hydrogen Budget to date. H2, although not a GHG, has an indirect Global Warming Potential 37 times more potent than CO2. Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/hydrogen-emi... Research paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

An update of the Global Hydrogen Budget. The biggest source of H2 into the atmosphere is oxidation of CH4 and NMVOCs. So if you care about the climate effects of H2, reduce your CH4 emissions... www.nature.com/articles/s41... 1/

[1/3] Before everyone scatters away on holidays, a reminder to people here interested in the history of climate economics and/or the politics of climate modelling about two ongoing calls for papers. One questions futures, the other is history-oriented, take your pick!

"After maturity, forests continue to sequester carbon but more slowly, with increasing storage in deadwood and soil" Obviously... But, I find this discussion on old growth harvests a little weird. "Maturity" is defined as the point of maximum growth, when harvesters want to harvest. 1/

Policy works. How do we know? Because emissions go up when the policy is removed (transport in this case). [Noting, biofuels are allocated zero emissions in GHG emission reporting, on the assumption emissions are captured in LULUCF]