If... "you screw up your economy trying to drastically reduce your emissions" Ah, which country is doing that (or even trying to do that)? Countries deploying wind, solar, EVs, etc, seem to be doing just fine to me. Modelling does not suggest that climate policy screws your economy either. 1/

📢Big surge in new-energy heavy truck sales in China in December to meet policy targets and rushing to get ahead of policy changes. In December, only 31.2% of heavy trucks were diesel, and for the full year 46.4%.

The numbers are in. ▸Tesla sales in the EU in 2025 down 37.9% compared to 2024. ▸EU battery-electric share rose to 17.4%.

Oh yes, we wrote about that in 2019, then there was COVID, then Ukraine, then we thought the end of gas was around the corner. No. Gas will probably keep putting upward pressure on emissions in the years ahead, even if coal tanks: rdcu.be/bYf1O 3/3

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has regular reports (monthly, quarterly) which provide short-term projections of coal, oil, & gas. As of January 2026, it looks like fossil CO2 emissions in 2026 will be relatively flat: the drop in coal (-1%) offset by growth in gas (2%) & oil (0.8%). 1/

I'm not sure I entirely understand. We're approaching a glut of LNG with both the US and Qatar in particular ramping up capacity to export, among others. Because it's on ships, Europe can buy it from anywhere. Pipes are something else entirely. 🎁🔗

Just updated: USA, California (two sources), Singapore. The bounce induced by policy change in the US is clear in the data. robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

Fascinating figure from the EIA. The part at the bottom highlights the repeated patterns of policies reaching end of life, and being renewed again. Over and over again. A consequence of this was that EIA's projections, based on current policy, kept saying that US wind installations would stall.

"No non-radical pathways" is a climate soundbite I think we should all talk about more... @kevinclimate.bsky.social

Interesting.

You wonder how emissions scenarios generated by IAMs are used- in practice - by decision makers, both in the public and private sector? Read our new paper!

Oh, looks like we should pull out the research we did 20 years ago on the importance of multi-regional models... (yes, yes, these things need to be repeated I guess, but this one should have been settled decades ago) www.nature.com/articles/s41...

How are scenarios used? Scenarios are used for contrasting purposes but are often actively interpreted and processed by informed users who are aware of different scenarios’ strengths, limitations and uncertainties. www.nature.com/articles/s44... 1/

If the last decade has taught Europe anything, it should be that reliance on fossil fuel imports is a strategic liability which will be exploited. Climate aside, decarbonisation is security. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...

Flere land har nedadgående utslipp, men det finnes ingen garantier for at trenden vil fortsette. Spesielt i USA er utviklingen usikker. @robbieandrew.bsky.social cicero.oslo.no/no/artikler/...

The reduction in oil from 2019 to 2050 varies a lot depending on model, scenario, & climate outcome. There is a lot of overlap, despite a shifting distribution. A level of oil in 2050 could be consistent with 1.5°C or 2.5°C, but the rest of the energy system counterbalances. 1/

A rare bit of good news from the US. House republicans seem to be pushing back against Trump's huge proposed cuts to science. NSF, NASA, NOAA - all look set to be near flat, or - for DOE - even a slight increase. www.economist.com/united-state...

55 years ago. The US introducing significantly strongly regulations on air pollution led to big changes in the cement industry. This from the 1970 minerals yearbook.

Back in 2008, the EIA believed that natural gas production would be flat through 2030. Then came fracking.

There was a record increase in CO2 in the atmosphere in 2024, though the size of the increase depends on the dataset. All datasets will give a similar cumulative increase over time, as end of year affects cancel. academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-... 1/

Nye bokutgivelser denne vinteren tar et kritisk blikk på Norges energipolitikk og vår rolle som oljenasjon. Bli opplyst i vintermørket, med bøker om energi, politikk, makt og økonomi.

EU går inn i et år med store nye energipolitiske initiativ, de vil styrke samarbeid og tilpasse regelverk. Dette står på EUs energipolitiske agenda i 2026. @tjevnaker.bsky.social

In Indonesia, 35% of new car sales were battery-electric models last month. Quite extraordinary. But let's see what the next few months bring.

Because the world is far from perfect, SRM research needs to do much better at looking non-idealized futures.

Lavere tempo, omkamper og mer industrivennlig politikk til tross. EUs klimapolitikk holder stand også inn i 2026. Den skal sikre både konkurransekraft og energisikkerhet, forklarer CICERO-forsker Merethe Dotterud Leiren.

While our best estimate is that US fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions went up about 2% in 2025, the EIA is currently forecasting a drop of 2.2% in 2026. robbieandrew.github.io/USA/

A big surge in sales of EVs in Indonesia at the end of the year. However, the incentives that led to this will not continue in 2026. Fully assembled imported EVs had been exempted several important taxes if the manufacturer committed to local production. robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

– I 2026 fortsetter klimaarbeidet uten USA, verdens nest største utslippsland. Det gjør samarbeidet vanskeligere, sier CICERO-forsker Solveig Aamodt, som advarer om at de mest sårbare landene rammes hardest når klimaomstillingen går for sakte.

Denmark's December car sales data just released. Battery-electrics reached an incredible 81% in December to make up 68% for the year.

China's December numbers are in, and battery-electric cars made up 35% in December and 33% for the year. Plug-in hybrids made up another 21% for the year for a total "new-energy" share of 54% in 2025. robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

Vi er ikke avhengige av fossile brensler for at økonomien vår skal vokse. Det er fullt mulig å ha vekst og samtidig redusere utslippene, som #månedensfigur fra @cicero.oslo.no viser.

Ronald Reagan introduced the requirement for cost-benefit analyses in 1981, which led the EPA to asses the value of human lives and health outcomes. This is about to end and that's expected to make it easier to pollute.🎁🔗

New paper! How are emissions scenarios 📉 from the IPCC (and other sources) actually used by decision-makers? We asked them, and the results are out just in time for the holidays 🧑‍🎄🤶🧑‍🎄 (with @idasogn.bsky.social & @climansen.bsky.social)

And the world's first production solid-state battery comes from Finland! “This is the moment internal combustion stops competing, and starts becoming irrelevant.”

Interesting, brief summary of the delaying tactics used by the Trump administration against anything green.

An optimistic outlook for European energy. "The first phase of Europe's energy transition was inflationary — capital-heavy, inefficient and politically fraught. The next phase looks different."

Interested in 'The Climate Impacts of a Hydrogen Economy'? The abstract submission deadline for EGU 2026 is 15 January 2026, 13:00 CET. www.egu26.eu/session/56875

So far 10 countries with data for December available.

As expected, a huge surge in new car purchases in Norway before the taxes increase on 1 January.

In the latest carbon budget, we revised... * up land-use change emissions * up the ocean sink (now takes up 29% of total emissions) * down the land sink (now takes up 21% of total emissions) * the "budget imbalance" now has zero trend What does this mean? www.nature.com/articles/s41... 1/

Why are objectives and targets so important for climate policy development, but not for nature protection? Why are public-private partnerships more important for nature protection than for climate policy? Find answers to these questions+more in this chapter on Norwegian environmental policy.

📢 New book chapter 👥 Elin Lerum Boasson @elinlb.bsky.social (ISV) & Lars H. Gulbrandsen 🔎 Paradoxes of Twin Crises: Nature Protection and Climate Governance in Norway 📖 Published in Oxford Handbook of Norwegian Politics 🔗 doi.org/10.1093/oxfo...

I mean, just look at it. It's a towering physical monument to the persuit of better understanding the science of the Earth. Generations of young climate scientists from across the world have been mentored in its sandstone walls. The symbolism of this attack on free science is unparalleled.

That the NCAR Mesa lab is beautiful is no accident. Assigning a beautiful place and building to the important task of understanding our planet speaks of a society that values both this undertaking, and the people who do it. To take that away is emblematic of attempts to undermine this status. 1/2

Reposting this, to remind us that climate and weather models do not make themselves...

An update of the Global Hydrogen Budget. The biggest source of H2 into the atmosphere is oxidation of CH4 and NMVOCs. So if you care about the climate effects of H2, reduce your CH4 emissions... www.nature.com/articles/s41... 1/

Dismantling of US climate science will lead to human suffering of major proportions. Wathing it play out is painful, but much more severe pain is going to follow.

Friends at NCAR, we're with you. @ncar-ucar.bsky.social is a trailblazer in community modelling driven not by idealogy, but by open science. We share all our code, thoughts, ideas. These can't be shut down. We'll fight and find every mechanism to support the ongoing CESM community.

Policy works. How do we know? Because emissions go up when the policy is removed (transport in this case). [Noting, biofuels are allocated zero emissions in GHG emission reporting, on the assumption emissions are captured in LULUCF]