My assumption now is that normal service through Hormuz does not resume until late May.

The paradox of foreign policy and energy policy cancelling each other out: - Longer conflict = higher prices = longer conflict impossible - Shorter conflict = lower prices = longer conflict possible As explained by the inimitable John Kemp JKempEnergy.com 👇

*sighs and moves central estimate of when the Straits will be open again another month to the right.*

It took the US 20 years to replace the Taliban with the Taliban, but only 9 days to replace Khamenei with Khamenei The Department of Government Efficiency working its magic!

I have a magical device in my driveway that protects me from oil price shocks, emasculates petrothugs, slows the rising seas, and powers my car. During times like these, worth considering!

It took the US 20 years to replace the Taliban with the Taliban, but only 9 days to replace Khamenei with Khamenei The Department of Government Efficiency working its magic!

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 Strategic shock in the Middle East 💥 Iran, the Gulf, and the crisis of regional order Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/strategic-s...

Good to see Sky News covering Energy Flux research on US LNG windfall profits "US LNG industry [is] on course for $4bn of windfall profits in the first month of the conflict, according to a model by Energy Flux." by @seabrookclimate.bsky.social news.sky.com/story/bluesk...

🇮🇷 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 🛢️ Massive fires after Israeli strikes hit oil depots in Tehran Four oil depots and a petroleum logistics site were hit by Israeli strikes, engulfing Tehran in thick black smoke and temporarily interrupting fuel distribution

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 Strategic shock in the Middle East 💥 Iran, the Gulf, and the crisis of regional order Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/strategic-s...

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 Strategic shock in the Middle East 💥 Iran, the Gulf, and the crisis of regional order Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/strategic-s...

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 Strategic shock in the Middle East 💥 Iran, the Gulf, and the crisis of regional order Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/strategic-s...

Good to see Sky News covering Energy Flux research on US LNG windfall profits "US LNG industry [is] on course for $4bn of windfall profits in the first month of the conflict, according to a model by Energy Flux." by @seabrookclimate.bsky.social news.sky.com/story/bluesk...

Essential reading on oil and geopolitics in these Mad Max times. Written straight from the gut, by the inimitable @justinmikulka.bsky.social powering-the-planet.ghost.io/mad-fascists...

This is America First in combination with Energy Dominance: starve the rest of the world, while forcing them to buy your LNG at inflated prices

This is America First in combination with Energy Dominance: starve the rest of the world, while forcing them to buy your LNG at inflated prices

I think Trump is laying the rhetorical groundwork for strategic retreat from Iran Claiming they already lost so he can pull back US forces & move onto the next thing eg Cuba And let Hormuz reopen to avoid the worst impacts of a deep global energy shock ahead of midterms What an absolute sh*tshow

I was live on @aljazeera.com yesterday to discuss closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Qatari LNG supply shock, and what it all means for global gas markets. Here's the clip 👇 www.youtube.com/watch?v=cD9U...

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 War in Iran convulses energy markets 💥 Hormuz closure and Qatar LNG shut-in trigger extreme volatility in gas, LNG and freight charter rates. The outlook is dire, especially for Europe, but not unremittingly so. Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/war-in-iran...

What’s do the Iran war and Trump’s ‘Energy Dominance’ agenda have in common? Aligned incentives, as I argue here. Turns out, one enables the other. youtu.be/0puDn_mUTVc?...

I was live on @aljazeera.com yesterday to discuss closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Qatari LNG supply shock, and what it all means for global gas markets. Here's the clip 👇 www.youtube.com/watch?v=cD9U...

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 War in Iran convulses energy markets 💥 Hormuz closure and Qatar LNG shut-in trigger extreme volatility in gas, LNG and freight charter rates. The outlook is dire, especially for Europe, but not unremittingly so. Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/war-in-iran...

The important point from @sebkennedy.bsky.social “The idea that you can cost-effectively decarbonise your economies by relying on a commodity that, in the space of 5 years, is subject to two illegal wars that send prices stratospheric, it just doesn’t make any sense” Solar makes sense.

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 War in Iran convulses energy markets 💥 Hormuz closure and Qatar LNG shut-in trigger extreme volatility in gas, LNG and freight charter rates. The outlook is dire, especially for Europe, but not unremittingly so. Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/war-in-iran...

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 War in Iran convulses energy markets 💥 Hormuz closure and Qatar LNG shut-in trigger extreme volatility in gas, LNG and freight charter rates. The outlook is dire, especially for Europe, but not unremittingly so. Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/war-in-iran...

Multiple commentators have argued that the American LNG business is about to reap massive profits off the Iran war. @sebkennedy.bsky.social's calculations suggest the industry could pocket up to $4bn in windfall profits if the conflict lasts a month www.energyflux.news/war-profits-...

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 War profits, quantified 💥 As Middle East regional war upends global gas markets, US LNG exporters stand to pocket a multi-billion-dollar windfall Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/war-profits...

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 War profits, quantified 💥 As Middle East regional war upends global gas markets, US LNG exporters stand to pocket a multi-billion-dollar windfall Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/war-profits...

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 War profits, quantified 💥 As Middle East regional war upends global gas markets, US LNG exporters stand to pocket a multi-billion-dollar windfall Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/war-profits...

LNG is quietly leaving the Atlantic basin. The Spark Signals netback chart shows just how violently the economics have flipped in the last 48 hours. A halt in Qatari LNG production and a surge in Asian spot prices has blown out the JKM premium, sending FOB arbitrage signals sharply higher.

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 War profits, quantified 💥 As Middle East regional war upends global gas markets, US LNG exporters stand to pocket a multi-billion-dollar windfall Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/war-profits...

LNG is quietly leaving the Atlantic basin. The Spark Signals netback chart shows just how violently the economics have flipped in the last 48 hours. A halt in Qatari LNG production and a surge in Asian spot prices has blown out the JKM premium, sending FOB arbitrage signals sharply higher.

'The question the world must confront is not whether this war was avoidable, but who benefits from it.'

🎯

Me on US-Iran strikes media webinar earlier today: "This incursion is a bonanza for US LNG exporter and a catastrophe for everyone else... "The argument that LNG is somehow a kind of energy transition partner is falling apart before our very eyes.” #LNG #Iran #USLNG #MiddleEast

Just last week the German government gutted the heating law which was supposed to drive a transition away from gas. The timing could not have been worse: Gas prices are up 50% today and this crisis could worsen significantly. This will happen again and again and the consumer pays the price.

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 Iran: US Energy Dominance laid bare 💥 Trump’s war of choice is a bonanza for US LNG exporters, and a catastrophe for everyone else Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/iran-war-us...

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 Iran: US Energy Dominance laid bare 💥 Trump’s war of choice is a bonanza for US LNG exporters, and a catastrophe for everyone else Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/iran-war-us...

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 Iran: US Energy Dominance laid bare 💥 Trump’s war of choice is a bonanza for US LNG exporters, and a catastrophe for everyone else Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/iran-war-us...

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 Iran: US Energy Dominance laid bare 💥 Trump’s war of choice is a bonanza for US LNG exporters, and a catastrophe for everyone else Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/iran-war-us...

"The war was launched this weekend, not because there was a breakdown in the negotiations, rather because there was a breakthrough in the negotiations." Al Jazeera's Marwan Bishara on the joint attack by Israel and the US on Iran.

Israel closes natural gas fields in wake of strikes on Iran - Energy Ministry orders temp. closure of parts of country's natgas reservoirs - Chevron's Leviathan field shut, per sources - Energean production vessel serving Israeli fields also shut, per statement www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Some oil & LNG traders are suspending shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, per Reuters. "Our ships will stay put for several days," one major trading desk said. 11 LNG tankers have shown signs of slowing down, U-turning or stopping in/around the Strait, said Kpler. www.reuters.com/business/ene...

The UK political landscape feels like it is at an inflection point. There's only so much inflation and incremental degradation of living standards that the stiff upper lip can take. The next general election will be a real earthquake.

This is one of the most beautiful things I have witnessed, the craft here is impeccable.

1/8 🇪🇺 Europe keeps waiting for the natural gas market to stabilise. The market keeps proving that stability is a myth. 🧵👇

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 The storage-speculation nexus: revisited 💥 Our revamped Chart Deck reveals hedge funds are again positioned to capitalise on Europe’s daunting gas storage refilling challenge Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/the-storage...

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 The storage-speculation nexus: revisited 💥 Our revamped Chart Deck reveals hedge funds are again positioned to capitalise on Europe’s daunting gas storage refilling challenge Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/the-storage...

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 The storage-speculation nexus: revisited 💥 Our revamped Chart Deck reveals hedge funds are again positioned to capitalise on Europe’s daunting gas storage refilling challenge Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/the-storage...

My latest for Energy Flux: 💥 The storage-speculation nexus: revisited 💥 Our revamped Chart Deck reveals hedge funds are again positioned to capitalise on Europe’s daunting gas storage refilling challenge Check it out 👉 www.energyflux.news/the-storage...