Wondering when you'll get your #BLS data?? The Friends of BLS have posted an FAQ about the impact of the shutdown on #BLSdata: www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025... #econsky @aaronsojourner.org @betseystevenson.bsky.social @justinwolfers.bsky.social @jasonfurman.bsky.social @jedkolko.bsky.social

This looks rather meaningful.

Disappointing UK PMI this morning with only a small bounce back after chunky fall in September. This is a key indicator for the BoE so the sliver of good news is that this probably keeps hopes of a rate cut alive for November.

UK inflation rose from 3.4% to 3.7% in June, and the official annual % change data may rise further in the next couple of months, but the forward-looking PMI data suggest the worst of the recent upturn in underlying price pressures has already started easing

US CPI inflation up from 2.4% to 2.7% in June with further rises to come in the months ahead according to the S&P Global PMI

PMI surveys indicate elevated US price growth as tariffs drive inflation differential with rest of world www.spglobal.com/marketintell...

Week ahead economics: Fed minutes, UK GDP and inflation data for mainland China are key releases in a week which is likely to be dominated by the looming US tariff deadline. Read all about it in our Week Ahead preview: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...

PMIs suggest a pretty rapid increase in German manufacturing productivity, and indeed in the PMI itself. (c) Deutsche Bank

Over the worst? UK construction PMI for May showed output and new orders falling at the slowest rates since January, while growth projections for the year ahead improved again. But it's not all good news, as job losses accelerated to highest in nearly 5 years. www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

Early 'flash' PMI data show US prices spiking higher in May amid tariff impact. Hints at potentially sizeable CPI rise. Full press release at www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

Booming services fire up India business growth in May despite rising inflation, PMI shows reut.rs/45s6kZk

This week sees flash PMI data released on Thursday, which will supply markets with more detailed insights into economic trends in the face of changing global trade conditions among the major economies. Read more in our free-to-read preview of the week ahead: www.spglobal.com/marketintell...

Quite the divergence between UK GDP growth and employment so far this year... points to big productivity gains if it persists. Are we replacing people with capital amid rising staff costs? It would explain the big jump in investment spending in Q1, if correct.

The UK enjoyed a strong first quarter again in 2025. Spot the pattern ... (1/2)

US annual consumer price inflation down to 2.3% in April, its lowest since February 2021, but companies have been reporting some renewed upward pressure on selling prices in recent months, often linked to tariffs, which looks set to feed through to higher inflation in the coming months.

Worrying signs of UK labour market weakness from business surveys such as the PMI are also becoming increasingly apparent in the official data. HMRC data showed payrolled employment down 33K in April after a 47K fall in March and a 27k drop in Feb. Employment is now down 150K since last October

"A decline in new export orders reported by UK manufacturers [in April] was not only the steepest recorded since May 2020, but was also greater than recorded by any other economy tracked by the S&P Global PMI surveys." More at www.spglobal.com/marketintell...

This chart is absolutely nuts

Extremely cool FEDS Note that links consumer sentiment data to actually spending at the respondent level and shows that the disconnect between sentiment and spending post-COVID was extremely unique and driven by inflation perception not real incomes.

Paging @darioperkins.bsky.social

It's easy to remember tariffs spelling as it ends in FFS

The 10 year Treasury yield has shot up to 4.45% and the 30-year is close to 5%. Here’s my attempt from yesterday to explain why even the biggest and safest bond market now seems to be creaking. TLDR: the liquidation of massively leveraged hedge fund trades. on.ft.com/3R748hN

"container shipping rates are in a freefall. Average container freight rates for Chinese exports as tracked by the CCFI dropped 28% since the start of the year, posting the worst first quarter in the past 20 years" www.joc.com/article/trum...

At least he is wearing a suit.

In addition to US factory prices spiking higher, input costs are rising at the fastest rate for 18 months in the US service sector. Full release at www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

Even before the April 2 tariffs were announced, the US was already seeing the steepest rate of inflation for manufacturing inputs of all 33 economies surveyed by S&P Global. www.spglobal.com/marketintell...

Lutnick on Bloomberg surveillance now explaining how a tome of work by of phd economists was behind the tariff rates.

There's a common thread of weakness evident in the March US manufacturing surveys as tariff worries and concerns over federal spending cuts intensify.

Things are looking quite grim in the UK manufacturing sector, putting industry on a soft footing as tariffs loom. PMI down to 17-month low in March. www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

Manufacturing production rose across Germany for the first time in nearly two years in March, but the return to growth could prove short-lived. See the full PMI press release at www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

Could be a big week for markets coming up as nonfarm payrolls cap off a busy diary which includes the worldwide PMIs, ISM surveys and of course "Liberation Day". Read more at www.spglobal.com/marketintell...

The latest survey data on business activity offers a bit of relief amid the current economic gloom. In March, the composite PMI growth index rose to a six-month high on the back of an upturn in services growth.

US manufacturing output rose for a 2nd successive month in February, +0.7% (+1.2% in Jan) after 6 months of decline, as indicated in advance by the S&P Global PMI. However, the PMI showed recent production has been buoyed by companies front-running tariffs, which will likely fade in coming months.

Third, did anyone ask the next generation if they want to work in old style factories, because the stats don't suggest they do. Or are you telling them they should want to work there and should not have dreams of doing something they want?

Second, core goods prices continued to rebound, with the second hottest print (+0.22% m/m) since early 2023. Note that this is before any meaningful tariff impacts have been felt.

Bank of Canada cuts its policy rate 25bp to 2.75%, says the Trump administration is a major threat to Canada's economy. "Looking ahead, the trade conflict with the United States can be expected to weigh on economic activity, while also increasing prices and inflation." - Tiff Macklem, BOC Governor.

An FT reader explains how #tariffs work...

Wordcloud analysis of reasons cited for lower business activity and lower sales in the services economy from S&P Global's US PMI February 2025

There's a lot of talk of ISM services (in fact the coverage is broader) being resilient in February, especially compared to our S&P Global PMI for the US. However, all US services surveys are in fact painting a similar picture this year if they are standardised, and its one of growth weakening.

US businesses report sharply slower growth and steeply rising prices as tariff impact hits www.spglobal.com/marketintell...

One of the best UK political commentators at the moment imo... goodallandgoodluck.substack.com/p/europes-da...

Rate cuts help boost UK consumer confidence in February (but still running well below levels seen in the run up to the last year’s General Election) www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

Thanks Alan

Well, hello PMI services output price balance, and 5%+ 3m/3m annualised underlying services inflation again.

Boom time for Spain as PMI survey shows private sector employment rising at fastest rate since January 2007 www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...

The final UK manufacturing PMI emphasises the big picture today. Growth is weak, but look at these price trends too. Believe this and disinflation is over with core CPI inflation still above 3% year-over-year.

Eurozone GDP was flat in Q4, but flash PMI hints at a modest improvement at the start of Q1 amid signs of lower interest rate environment starting to help. All pretty moribund though as political uncertainty continues to dominate.

A 0.2% decline in Germany's GDP in the fourth quarter was worse than economists had expected, but was in line with our PMI. Encouragingly, the flash PMI points to some stabilisation in January

France's GDP contracted 0.1% in Q4, but this weakness in part reflects some payback from the Olympics (+0.4% Q3). That said, the flash PMI points to a broadly flat picture at start of 2025 so far due in part to weak demand amid political uncertainty.