As I showed yesterday, business investment in software & tech is adding more to GDP growth than ever before. But here’s the catch: that capex contribution only captures the domestic slice of the boom. Imports of Tech capex - up 90% in 2 years - tell the rest of the story. More in 🧵 #EconThreads

Software + Tech Bubble 2.0? In terms of contribution to GDP, we've never seen a surge in tech & software investment of this scale. For some perspective, here's the contribution to real GDP growth from businesses investing in software and technology since 1960. #EconSky

Pretty notable upward revisions to 2Q25 real GDP growth this morning: up 50bps to 3.8% from 3.3% prior. All of the upward revision was due to stronger than previously reported Consumer spending on of Services, Business Investment and a modest bump to Government consumption. Details in 🧵 #EconSky

After spiking to a new post-pandemic high due to fraudulent claims in Texas, initial jobless claims have plunged back below their 3y average (222k) to 218k. Meanwhile, continuing claims also ticked down (1,926k vs 1,928k the week before) but remained near post-pandemic highs. Details in 🧵 #EconSky

Fed restarts policy normalization after almost a year due to soft data... Data immediately starts rapidly surprising to the upside #EconSky

The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Risk Management 101." Last week, the Fed's rate normalization process kicked back off & we got updates on the housing market, labor market, the consumer& industrial production. Some thoughts on the latest developments + a link to this week's report in the 🧵 #EconSky

Something just broke fed funds futures... BBG showing equivalent of 4-5 25bps rate cuts priced in for Oct meeting #EconSky

The morning's MBA mortgage application report revealed something we haven't seen since the early days of the pandemic... Mortgage refinance applications jumped 58% w/w last week as the 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell to the lowest level since last September. Some more details in the 🧵 #EconSky

This was likely the cause of the highly unusual spike in Texas jobless claims 👇 www.twc.texas.gov/news/reminde... #EconSky

Well, well, well... After sitting on the backburner for some time, jobless claims are back in the headlines with the highest weekly print since the pandemic. Initial jobless claims jumped by 32k to 263k during the week ending Sept 6. Let's see what's going on in the 🧵 #EconSky

Aug PPI declined -0.1%, softer than expected (0.3%) although PPI excluding food, energy & trade was in-line with expectations at 0.3%. What does this mean? Core goods prices are still rising at an above trend pace, while broader price pressures eased. Details in the 🧵 #EconSky

The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Weirdonomics." Last week brought us updates on the labor market & broader economic trends. This week's big news will be the last CPI report ahead of next week's Sept. FOMC decision. Quick thoughts on the latest developments and link to the report in the 🧵 #EconSky

How will recent job growth look after today's Current Employment Statistics (CES) preliminary benchmark revisions? Glad you asked. Here's a look at monthly job growth if we include the revised data and carry forward that monthly pace of negative revisions through August. Details in the 🧵 #EconSky

The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Whipsawed." Last week brought us updates on the consumer, inflation trends, and the manufacturing sector. This week will be capped by Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. Some quick thoughts on the latest developments and a link to this week's report in the 🧵 #EconSky

During a chat with @renmacllc.bsky.social, we were pontificating about the implications of weak office-using job growth. I realized I haven't included that metric in my usual jobs report updates, so I whipped up a quick chart. The trend over the last couple years is rather striking... #EconSky

July retail sales came in a tad lighter than expected at 0.5% m/m (consensus 0.6%) but June was revised up to 0.9% from 0.6%. On the surface: steady and solid consumer momentum. Under the hood: a rising share of sales growth is being “paid for” by inflation. Details in the 🧵 #EconSky

Congrats to EJ Antoni on his new role leading the BLS

Heads of agencies like the BEA and BLS are indeed political appointees, but the boots on the ground? Career civil servants committed to rigorous and well-documented methodologies. Their work anchors every key economic indicator. A short 🧵 #EconSky

The regime change appears to be underway

Wow #EconSky

One of the big surprises in today's jobs report was the contraction in government payrolls. The government sector lost -10k jobs, thanks to a -14k decline in Federal workers (non-USPS). This shouldn't have been a big surprise, but it was to consensus economists... A quick 🧵 #EconSky

Not a pretty jobs report today... I think this one chart sums up what's wrong with anyone pointing to unemployment as a sign the labor market is "solid." A lot to unpack in the 🧵 #EconSky

Let's check back in on the Fed Funds Futures market... Apparently, the market doesn't agree with Powell's assessment that the labor market is "solid." #EconSky

Challenger released its July job cuts report this morning and it showed a 139% y/y gain. While I usually provide context to downplay eye-popping figures, in this case the y/y figure isn't too far off from how elevated job cuts are vs their pre-COVID norm: 98% Details in the 🧵 #EconSky

Powell successfully discouraged those hoping for a Sept rate cut yesterday. This morning's relatively hot PCE report just added fuel to that trend. Odds of a Sept rate cut have plunged to less than 40% from 66% at the start of the week. 👇 #EconSky

Picking up from this morning's GDP thread: The wild swings in net exports that flattered headline GDP weren’t just a statistical artifact - they reflect massive, tariff-driven volatility in the underlying goods trade. Let’s take a closer look in the🧵 #EconSky

Q2 GDP came in hotter than expected (3% vs 2.6% cons). But don’t be fooled by the headline... Final sales to private domestic purchasers - the cleanest read of underlying demand - rose just 1.07% in Q2. That’s the weakest since 4Q22 and a notable downshift from ~2.5% growth in 2024. 🧵 #EconSky

June Retail Sales beat expectations up 0.6% m/m (0.1% cons), with Control Group (which feeds directly into GDP) also up 0.5% vs expectations for a 0.3% gain. Very solid figures in nominal terms, but it's important to note that core goods inflation has picked up in recent months. Short 🧵 #EconSky

I see a lot of reminders this morning that tariffs and imports are excluded from PPI. That is a very valid point, but there's a lot more nuance to it than taking it at face value to say we won't see tariff impacts in the PPI report - I'll explain more in the🧵 #EconSky

About that "no evidence of inflation" from tariffs... If you know where to look, it seems pretty clear that inflationary pressures are building in the product categories most exposed to tariffs. More evidence in the 🧵 #EconSky

The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Only Certainty Is Uncertainty" Last week brought us some updates on housing, the labor market, and consumer, as well as a FOMC meeting. Some quick thoughts on the latest developments and a link to this week's report in the 🧵 #EconSky

🚀 New role on my team! Hoping I can do my part to nudge the hiring rate a little higher this summer... We’re looking for an early-career Economist who loves digging into data and turning it into real-world insights. Link & details in 🧵 #EconSky

The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Beneath the Headlines" We got multiple inflation reports last week, but any sign of tariffs yet? Some quick thoughts on tariff pass-through implications and a link to this week's report in the 🧵 #EconSky

UMich Consumer Sentiment jumped to 60.5 in June (prelim), a rebound from May's 52.2 which was its lowest level since 2022. This is the first monthly gain in half a year and well above consensus expectations (53.6). The rebound was broad-based across sentiment measures. More in the 🧵 #EconSky

May PPI was softer than expected (+0.13% vs 0.22% consensus), but that doesn't mean tariff impacts aren't percolating. Details on what's going on under the hood and what it all means for the Fed's preferred inflation measure (PCE) in the🧵 #EconSky

Layoffs are steady at an uncomfortably elevated level near the upper end of recent years' range, but the number of people continuing to file claims is climbing sharply. How does this make sense? More details in the 🧵 #EconSky

May CPI came in much cooler than expected: • Headline: +0.08% m/m (vs. +0.2% consensus) • Core: +0.13% m/m (vs. +0.3%) Was it just eggs? Is disinflation holding stronger than feared? And where are the tariffs? Let's unpack it in the🧵 #EconSky

The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Tides Turning." Check out our key takeaways and link below for our breakdown last week's biggest data releases and what they mean for the outlook. #EconSky

April PCE inflation was weak (0.1% m/m), as expected based on the previously released CPI & PPI data, but again the details show interesting developments to keep an eye on. More details in the 🧵 #EconSky

Seeing a lot of excitement about the strength in personal income growth through April (+0.8% m/m, sa). The details of the report should temper that enthusiasm. More detail on what's behind the recent surge in the 🧵 #EconSky

The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Truncated." Check out our key takeaways and link below for our breakdown of a long list of data releases last week and what they mean for the outlook. #EconSky

Another inflation report, another downside miss with tariffs still MIA... Or were they? April Producer Price Index (PPI) plunged by -0.5% m/m, the worst monthly decline since the early days of the pandemic. Let's dig into what happened in the 🧵 #EconSky

The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Breathing Room." Link in the 🧵 for our update on the latest tariff news, student loan developments, and implications for the Fed. #EconSky

April headline CPI inflation came in slightly below expectations (0.22% m/m vs 0.26% consensus) and core CPI was also a bit lighter than expected (0.24% vs 0.27%). Where are all those tariff-price shocks? Are egg prices fixed? Details on what’s going on beneath the hood in the 🧵 #EconSky

The latest HaMMR has dropped: "On the Precipice?" Check out the link in the 🧵 for our full breakdown of the latest jobs and GDP reports. #EconSky

The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Trade Impacts Percolating." Link below to the full update, including details on the latest tariff developments. Some quick takeaways in the 🧵 #EconSky

The latest HaMMR has dropped: "The Last Hurrah?" Check out the full report below (link in 🧵) for many more details 👇 #EconSky

The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Transitory Stagflation?" Check out the full report below (link in 🧵) for many more details 👇 #EconSky

Do CPI reports even matter any more? 10y yields continued to rise--up to 4.33 from 4.28 at yesterday's close--after the release, despite the downside miss. Headline CPI (+0.22% m/m) and core (+0.23%) inflation were softer than consensus (0.3% for both). What's going on? Find out in the 🧵 #EconSky

The latest HaMMR has dropped: "Margins of Slack" Check out the 🧵 for key takeaways and a link to the full report for many more details 👇 #EconSky