Worth noting that the IRS has just lost its 3rd commissioner in *this* filing season. That’s unheard of. With tax day around the corner, fair to be worried about this filing season – and what’s to come with respect to our ability to collect taxes and raise revenue

New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social: The IRS is entering into an agmt to share data about undocumented immigrants with ICE. Historically, the agency promised data would not be used in this way. We estimate the govt will lose ~$300B in the next decade as a result.

Hard endorse

It’s not secret at all! Hmu for your dog bandana needs, and I’ll ship you some for free. My goal is for all dogs to be #DogsInBandanas.

In contrast with much in the world being terrible, let it be known that @maibennett.com is a delight to hang out with irl, and she has a not-so-secret hobby sewing adorable dog bandannas

Another happy client of #BobsBandanas cc @lukestein.com

Literally recorded a pod about this to release tomorrow. Investors don't buy shares; they buy interest in an SPV, so the companies can limit the number of investors on their books and remain legally private

I am not saying this out of glee or schadenfreude, or to score political points. I actually think it's an important data point that may not be getting through to people in the US because of all the other horrors they're confronting and trying to resist.

I wasn't browsing r/dataisbeautiful for this, but interesting pattern, good use of the scatter (and layers) and the overlaid histograms (which generally isn't my favorite). www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeau...

“So, why don’t you start by telling us a bit about your job market paper”

If the government can do this to universities, we don't live in a free society. Five alarm fire.

Lunchtime chat w colleague Linghang. In spirit of what our MSF students are learning to code, here’s max drawdown following every 10% S&P 500 correction back to 1980 (n=15 excl. today) - 6 hit a new high before dropping 15% - Another 6 fell >25% - Only 3 turned around at 15–25% (all close to 20%)

Context for today's headlines

genuine respect for williams & connolly, hope law students with multiple options take notice

Hi, McDonalds here! Everyone at our company is a stupid dumbass moron and think people don't wanna order hotcakes and sausages at 1 P.M when it's been shown with extensive market research and customer reviews they DO want that. We used to offer it but removed it. Sorry, I hate our hashbrowns too.

Let's say you work at a fund of funds that cuts the lowest 10% performers every calendar year. You are beta=1 with decent alpha that puts you reliably in the top 40% of performers at your firm. You also have a reliable prediction: "70% chance market goes down next 3 months."

With his permission, I'm sharing Dean Treanor's response to Ed Martin's letter:

🎂 @johnjhorton.bsky.social

There it is: Speaker of the House says Elon has already started running your Social Security through his AI.

This is my Twitter DM inbox

Has the whole world gone crazy? Am I the only one around here who gives a sh!t about the rules? Mark it zero!

Luke stein visits NKU’s Haile College of Business. @lukestein.com open.substack.com/pub/draalbah...

🚨 NEW WORKING PAPER ALERT 🚨 What if we told you that NFL officiating might not be as neutral as we all assume? That penalties in the postseason aren’t just random whistles, but instead, they tend to favor one team? Read the paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.....

I remember distinctly when I hung out with @lukestein.com in SF for the AGU one year and he told me the good word about Donald Shoup. May we all strive to see a horrible thing so clearly and then move others to act against it. #EconSky #RIP #Shoupist4lyfe

Flyout season! (1) research whoever you’ll meet & their work (ask for list, if not finalized ask for tentative schedule); (2) act professional with everyone (students, admin, faculty), everybody talks to everybody; (3) be genuinely excited #econbluesky #econsky - I’m very pumped to meet everyone!

Cool cool cool

Business model experimentation underrated. New one for me: "rent a shelf" bookstore. 200 individuals rent a shelf at $40/m. They curate new or used books, split profit on sale. Shelf rent covers overhead. A few "local celebrity" curated shelves. "What is on Victor's shelf today?"

It’s awesome! I don’t know if Tokyo is the originator, but I believe this model has been in place in Jimbochō (Tokyo neighborhoood with concentration of used bookstores) for a while www.asahi.com/sp/ajw/artic...

Regression discontinuity at 15%

At the moment, only an offshore site like Polymarket could allow bets on something this grim, because the CFTC's rules don't allow betting on a natural disaster that could theoretically be manmade (like a wildfire). Who knows if that'll change under Trump.

hadn’t heard “Linux is free if you don’t value your time” yet ++1

"Did you consider the people who don't like chili? The people who are vegetarians? The people without tastebuds? The people who don't know how to turn on stoves? What about all those folks?"

Cool cool cool

Colleagues, please add me to stay in touch :) #ASSA2025 @assameeting.bsky.social! Happy New Year! I finally (just) joined @bsky.app #econsky #econbluesky #econ @harvard.edu 🎊🧑🏻‍🏫 @aeainformation.bsky.social

Time for some game theory

I’m flattered, but if you have a sec to report this imposter ( lukesteinn ) I’d be obliged Happy New Year!

Bumper stickers that go hard

To four bottles red wine (or—let’s be honest—a box), add: Applejack Masala chai Orange juice Apple juice Fresh ginger, peeled and slivered Star anise Cinnamon sticks Whole cloves Black peppercorns Sichuan peppercorns Tajin Chinese five spice Coffee grounds Simmer 90 min. or until 20 friends arrive

From what I can see, such a valuable piece of knowledge - hooray for the authors, both doctoral students (Kyu Matsuzawa is on the market qmatsuzawa.com) h/t @mikekofoed.bsky.social

Interrupting work to tell you how 🔥 this mix is that I’m listening to while working 🏷️ @jessexjesse.bsky.social @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social www.mixcloud.com/JesseKeith/j...

What can your advisor do? They almost certainly can't help you with the most competitive places on your list, but they can reach out to places that may have thought you were out of reach and let them know you are gettable.

I had the distinct honor of being recognized (along with a select group of about ten outstanding faculty members across the university) at @UTEP's annual faculty endowment dinner! And to cap it off @UTEP 's President @HeatherAnWilson shared inspiring words about us!

Scrolling through the whole thread assessing respect, emulsion preparation, pride, singularity of the entity 😋

I have a blast running the @econ5k.bsky.social every year (a few in a row now with @dbergstresser.bsky.social) Thanks as always to the orgs; I feel this is really now a full-fledged institution!! 🏃🏻🏃🏻‍♀️🏃🏽‍♂️

#ECON5k run at the Brandeis track with Frank Fessenden and @lukestein.com! We were chatting while running and lost track of distance and went way over 5k

Here is the street behind NYU Stern, where, DOT repaved this whole street. Except the bike line is used by trucks. And the “pedestrian” area is used for free parking. On top of the other two lanes already dedicated for free parking. Highest and best use of most expensive real estate in America?