The degree of accuracy had a fair amount of luck in it (<2% error). The realisation the NHS projections of 5000-8000 were horseshit, did not. Growth rates would have had to double-to-quadruple in a week.

Due to overwhelming demand (two requests) this is how I predicted flu bed numbers - actuals were 3,140. I looked at the weekday-matched growth rates, and extrapolated to second derivative. That’s all. Took 10 minutes. The rest of the time was looking at NHS press releases and yelling at my screen.

NHS England continues scaremongering. Health reporters are screaming "5000-8000 flu beds in NHS England next week". (Highest ever was 5,400). Source: Sir Jim Mackey of NHS England. It's horseshit. Real number will out on Thursday. My guess: 3,200 or thereabouts. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Eight Palestine Action activists are being left to die in prison – all without even facing trial. We must force the government to act, before it’s too late ⬇️ https://goodlaw.social/3e3320

Also: it’s worth noting that specific concern about the intifada line has *exactly fuck all* to do with its seriousness, or even the prevalence of its use. It is 100% because it was used against the new mayor of New York in a major bullshit campaign, which makes it the most recent propaganda drivel.

"HMP Bronzefield then called the police to protect workers from a sitting MP, two doctors, and two Canary journalists" www.thecanary.co/uk/news/2025...

Do you remember how we used to (a few years ago) debate no-platforming racists? I wish my side had won that one

You guys really need to develop the capacity of simultaneously holding the truth that the colonialist occupation and genocide of Palestine is unacceptable AND violent antisemitism is real Both are true

Important thing to understand is that the UK press, having had to concede the issue "racism is bad," have been working very hard to define racism as being just "saying the really bad slurs out loud, and even then it's ok if you're just joking." So this is right on their turf.

Y'know, not jumping on any bamdwagons here but. Starc has been held back for 90 minutes to get to bowl in the twilight, the whole test is structured around batting being hard under lights, and your first ball facing him you have a big drive and edge to slip. FFS Harry.

Been thinking this very loudly every time some government chump chats shit about "legitimate concerns" that the fash have inserted into the daily conversation of the political and media class. Fuck em. thebristolcable.org/2025/11/if-y...

Makes you wonder how useful executives truly are eh

Happy Jeff Hendrick day to all who celebrate. What a moment, what an swfc season, what a man. Relive the glory! youtu.be/uge31-wmHWw?...

The problem with fetishizing the rule of law is that people have to break the law to resist fascism, state violence, and oppression. This has always been true, and is very much the case RIGHT NOW.

Today in Labour meticulously preparing the ground for fascism news

A second political prisoner, one of the ‘Filton 24’ on remand for alleged offences relating to Palestine Action, has been hospitalised after refusing food for nearly three weeks novaramedia.com/2025/11/28/s...

Here's a crucial thing when it comes to electoral politics: Everyone is cringe.

Pick it up, gently place it on its side - as long as you don't damage it, no crime has been committed.

This isn't driven by any grand overarching animus, it's driven by small-minded technocratic penny-pinching - which is as much a critical component of fascism as the goosestepping and the uniforms.

Labour's growing authoritarianism is deeply sinister. This week, they've: - Swapped judges last minute in the high-profile Palestine Action ban review - Proposed removing the right of trial by jury for most offences - Planned to abolish appeals in the asylum system

Sorry, what now? Personally I tend to think this government suggesting scrapping the right to appeal is potentially an even bigger issue with Lammy's reported proposals than the idiotic idea of getting rid of juries. This would be dangerous territory. #r4today solicitornews.co.uk/lammy-jury-t...

I can never get over the fact that we don't talk about student loan repayments. Half the population under 35 is paying 9% on everything they earn over £25k! But we can only twiddle around the edges of anything else!

Fun fact: November 28, 2001: "ENRON, which had been a component of the S&P; 500, was removed at the end of trading Thursday and replaced by NVIDIA Corp., a Santa Clara, Calif.-based maker of computer-graphics chips."

Danish Social democrats suffered a massive defeat in Copenhagen last night. They incurred similar defeats across the country and there will be a general election in the next year. In Copenhagen the far-left Enhedslisten (the unity list) won the most mandates followed by the socialist people's party.

This is cheerful news and utterly surgical comic timing

The Danish Social Democrats who have pursued far right policies on immigration and governs with the centre-right are set to lose in Copenhagen for the first time in a 100 years, while the left looks set to win a major victory today.

So Reeves was going to tax higher earners but now she’s just going to take it all from lower earners by freezing the tax thresholds? She’s just appeasing the wealthy - have I got that right?

What is truly pathetic about Labour is that this is all they have got. They have failed so spectacularly already, despite a whacking great majority, to even attempt to govern positively that all they have is punching down on marginalised groups and saying "oh but Reform will be worse".

this is actually really something. The NY Times stuff is bonkers.

The value of reading history is you know that in 1860 there were abolitionists who were so demoralized that they thought chattel slavery would be permanent. 5 years later those still alive had lived to see its end.

This is the Canadian Premier League soccer finals and we have a bicycle kick goal in the middle of a blizzard … and that’s the most Canadian thing I’ve ever seen 😂

You mean that time with the plague? The plague that causes long term illness and disability? You’re wondering why there was a massive bump in long term sickness during the plague?

londoners rn

The pandemic was a mass-disabling event and one of the reasons it has largely vanished from day to day political discourse is that those in power don't want to acknowledge the long term care needs it produced.

Christ, the pandemic.

Stop and search is such a retro dogwhistle. Do they think it's the 1990s?

modern fascism has international ambitions & they see a real opening in the UK

The levels of evil here are wild, just so wild

Asylum seekers, housed in hotels in Manchester, are reaching out in their own words to address the concerns of the local community. Please take a minute to read their letter, & share it with the people in your life who need to hear the truth about the people they are protesting.

Log on to find a lot of people talking about Keir Starmer in the past tense. Is it... Has he...

El Fasher resistance committees reporting that large numbers of volunteers in community kitchens were martyred as they tried to help civilians amidst fighting. This comes on the back of mass captures and executions by the RSF reported in the last 24 hours since the RSF captured the city.

We now know what % will be used to uprate benefits & pensions next April: - State pension: 4.8% - Universal Credit: 3.8% Stark contrast to shocking statistics on % facing hunger whilst on those benefits: - State pension: 3% - Universal Credit: 52%

If Keir starmer really wants to prove he’s not antisemitic he’ll riot with Maccabi Tel Aviv. Anything less he may as well be Hamas.

The aim of a neo-Nazi is not to 'win the debate', it's to murder everyone he believes to be subhuman in defence of the white race. Everything else is in totally cynical service of that overarching goal. Don't give them an inch of space - they'll exploit every grace you extend them.

A protest with perfect opsec would be completely undetectable. There might be one outside your house right now