Who is teaching causal inference at the undergrad level? What do you cover? Recommended textbooks? Slides you're willing to share? Advice? #stats

Congestion pricing by the # ‘s 6 months in: * 67k fewer drivers entering zone daily * Delays in Holland Tunnel down 65% * Traffic deaths down 32% so far in 2025 * $500m projected this year for MTA capital improvements * B’way attendance +12% * Subway ridership +7% So yes this program is a SUCCESS.

I don’t think anyone is prepared for what they just did w/ ICE. This is not a simple budget increase. It is an explosion - making ICE bigger than the FBI, US Bureau of Prisons, DEA,& others combined. It is setting up to make what’s happening now look like child’s play. And people are disappearing.

This is downtown Santa Barbara right now. The No Kings protest stretches for over a mile along the water. The cars who drive by are all honking in support. Probably the biggest protest this community has ever seen.

We feed you. They hunt us.

At the risk of sounding like a big nerd, I love when assumed/perceived trends are found to be the result of the Simpson's paradox! Here, the gender-equality paradox is getting fried! 🧪 #science 📊 #stats #equality

@noahgreifer.bsky.social was my post-doc and I cannot recommend him more highly if you need a super smart statistical consultant / programmer. He is the force behind MatchIt, cobalt, and other packages, and is also just a fantastic team member.

Trump proposes unprecedented budget cuts for US science in next fiscal year NASA cut by 24% NIH cut by 40% EPA cut by 55% NSF cut by 56% Analysis from @maxkozlov.bsky.social @dangaristo.bsky.social @alexwitze.bsky.social and @nature.com team www.nature.com/articles/d41...

The man at left separated the mother and baby at right. The mother is now in Venezuela. Baby daughter, in foster care in the US, exact location unknown. Dad? He's in CECOT prison without trial — because he had tattoos.

🧵In March I wrote about how Trump's attacks on science & universities followed the authoritarian playbook & set out Qs as warning signs for escalation. 🚨 THESE ARE NOW HAPPENING This 🧵is on how those warning sign Qs have been realised full post: christinapagel.substack.com/p/warning-si... 1/15

Wow. Randall Monroe is not fucking around *at all*.

“When the men approached me, my first thought was that they …. wanted to harm me.” As a woman who spent a career working alone in weird and dangerous situations, my first concern was being hurt. Thanks, @cambridgeday.bsky.social for being one of the few news outlets to capture that.

She is still in custody www.wbur.org/news/2025/04...

Working with an interdisciplinary team, we have developed a website to communicate how the White House's proposed cuts to health research would cause losses of $16B and 68,500 jobs. Find out how your community may be impacted. Explore more at SCIMaP: scienceimpacts.org a 🧵

What people in every part of higher education need to understand is that Republicans now want to do to universities what they’ve tried to do to labor unions: erase them from the institutional landscape. The question is how much you want to collaborate in your own destruction.

This is completely terrifying, a huge violation of the first amendment, and part of the coopting of a distorted version of anti-semitism to justify persecution of people speaking out against Israel's genocide. And the broader pursuit of a police state.

This is horrible to post, but I may as well post it. We are essentially shutting down research operations in my group, which is focused on treatments for pediatric brain cancer. I’m a well funded investigator, and there’s no choice. Science can’t function without the stability of NIH

I just heard this as well. The entire staff of the National Center for Education Statistics, created in 1867, has been fired.

DOGE savings (WSJ): $2.6b TSLA subsidies (10 years): $15b Annual increase in deficit: $900b Cuts to Medicare: $880b

If people were really just dying from chronic diseases then how come they weren’t dying from their chronic diseases until after March, 2020?

If anyone who receives this would like help writing a suitable prompt injection for when they use an LLM to evaluate responses, I am at your service. DM or @hmason.64 on Signal.

NEW: Texas Banned Abortion. Then Sepsis Rates Soared. ProPublica’s first-of-its-kind analysis is the most detailed look yet into a rise in life-threatening complications for women experiencing pregnancy loss under Texas’ abortion ban.

after the overturning of roe, black infant mortality has spiked nearly 11% in states with abortion bans: www.reuters.com/world/us/inf...

Our two papers on abortion bans and fertility/infant mortality are now out. In 14 states w/ abortion bans, fertility increased 1.7% and infant mortality increased 6%. Key takeaway is that these impacts were disproportionately felt among those w/ greatest structural disadvantages. Links below.

I'm very proud of this work that wouldn't have happened without a wonderful collaborative team. On the stats side, it involved a novel Bayesian hierarchical panel data modeling for inferring heterogenous effects. We're planning on a methods paper related to the tools we developed.

#stats hot take: additivity and linearity are forms of regularization, and part of the reason OLS/GLMs are so effective is because they're basically very regularized models already

The International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA) has joined Bluesky. You can follow the account at @isba-bayesian.bsky.social to stay updated on events, publications, and discussions within the #Bayesian community. Please add the account to your starter packages.

UC Santa Barbara invites applications for an Assistant Professor position in Statistics and Data Science. Come join us in beautiful Santa Barbara! Priority given to applicants who apply by December 15: recruit.ap.ucsb.edu/JPF02859

Great thread. Excited to hear what’s next. With @darbour.bsky.social @amfranks.bsky.social (and Ben-Michael) we also thought a lot about the time component and proposed a Bayes model that’s similar to Guido’s DWCP. Love to see more attention to these issues! projecteuclid.org/journals/ann...

“And we will have different names for different kinds of missing data. When it is random, we shall call it missing completely at random.” “And when it is not random, sir?” “Missing at random.”