One thing that surprised me is how salient pro-EU attitudes are to Labour/SNP voters and SNP voters generally. You see it in the wider research too. Lots of fluidity and tactical dynamics in the Scottish electorate but this and Indy are basic pro-SNP gravitational forces.

NEW: What exactly happened in the local and devolved elections in England, Scotland and Wales last week? @persuasionuk.bsky.social has some new polling out today which offers a first glimpse. Thread here on top line findings from each nation. 🧵

One of the hidden disasters of UK politics over recent decades was the growing pool of "non-voters", who largely disengaged from democratic politics. The challenge for progressive parties is to match the success of Reform/the Leave campaign in drawing those people back into the electoral process.

The “Blue Labour” strategy still being promoted by some on Labour right is premised on being able to win social conservatives while holding on to social liberals. Failure state for this strategy is failing to win social cons while alienating social liberals. Here is a map of that failure state:

CA’s $20 fast food minimum wage raised fast food prices by only 3%. The reason minimum wage increases keep not reducing employment and barely increasing prices is monopsony power. www.nber.org/papers/w34990

Yesterday I had a story out about eggs, today I have a column out about Marc Andreessen. Make of that what you will. as.ft.com/r/14d0d9d8-6... (gift link! 💝)

YouGov has the Greens in second place for the first time

Come join me next year!

We’re hiring an Events and Department Affairs Officer at the School of Public Policy! Help plan and deliver a busy events programme, support internal communications, and work with academic staff and visiting speakers. Apply by 12 March 2026 (23.59 UK time): jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

As devolved elections approach in Scotland and Wales, what could greater devolution mean for Britain’s economies? Join “Devolution economics: can local decision making strengthen Britain’s economies?” tonight! Find out more and register: www.lse.ac.uk/school-of-pu...

Today we welcome Felipe González (fagonza4.github.io) at the @lsepublicpolicy.bsky.social's RP seminar. It will take place from 2:00 to 3:30 pm at LSE's Marshall Building (MAR.2.06). The full schedule for the term can be found here: lnkd.in/gcbAeG5V

This is very important work. Both in its substance and in its emphasis on asymmetric effects. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Happening today!

Europe's innovation problem New WP with Herbertson, Storper, Soskice, and Pardy researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/13...

Hate-filled fake videos about London are everywhere. We've obtained a recording of a TikToker confessing to secretly filming Londoners in their homes for clicks. He says it's not political. He just wants to make money from far-right anger. Read what he says: www.londoncentric.media/p/london-tik...

Only just now seen this cool chart from The Economist plotting Kevin Warsh's published speeches' dovishness and hawkishness. Sharp shift in tone depending on who's in White House purely coincidental. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Next Monday we kick off the WT edition of the @lsepublicpolicy.bsky.social's RP Seminar with @sandraleon.bsky.social. It will take place from 2:00 to 3:30 pm at LSE (MAR.2.07). The full schedule for the term can be found here: www.lse.ac.uk/school-of-pu...

Nobody in Britain pays any attention to Australian politics, but One Nation overtaking the Coalition in the polls has distinct parallels with Reform leading the Conservatives. Parties on the radical right are coming for centre right parties across the world... Poll via AFR / RedBridge Accent.

NEW - Elections Without Constraints? The Appeal of Electoral Autocracy Across the World - https://cup.org/49auQPf - @anjaneundorf.bsky.social, @sirianned.bsky.social, Kristian Vrede Skaaning Frederiksen & @aykutozturk.bsky.social #OpenAccess

🚨Happy to finally see this out in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social (with @leonardocarella.bsky.social) ⁉️ Does growing up when immigration is salient make people vote for parties they agree with on immigration *for the rest of their lives*? doi.org/10.1017/S147...

Really excited to be organizing this workshop this Friday at LSE with such an impressive lineup!

Recently accepted by #QJE, “Marginal Returns to Public Universities,” by Jack Mountjoy: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

Recently accepted by #QJE, “Changing Opportunity: Sociological Mechanisms Underlying Growing Class Gaps and Shrinking Race Gaps in Economic Mobility,” by Chetty (@Oppinsights), Dobbie, Goldman, Porter, and Yang: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

Since the last election, Reform UK's support has grown most in groups they were already stronger with, such as Leave voters (up 22pts), those with a lower level of education (up 19), the over 60s (up 18) and those in lower income households (up 17) yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

How would Britons vote at the start of 2026, by socio-economic classification (NS-SEC)? Higher/professional Labour: 21% Conservative: 20% Reform UK: 19% Lib Dem: 17% Green: 16% Routine/manual Reform UK: 39% Conservative: 17% Labour: 14% Green: 12% Lib Dem: 11% yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

Mark Carney's speech really is terrific: full text is here and very much worth your time.

Both can be true: 1. Trump has not been very successful by traditional metrics of the presidency. 2. He's playing a different game and is trying to consolidate an authoritarian regime. Suggesting he's not having a big impact because he's not passing laws is a category error.

Portuguese presidential election yields 2nd round between center left Seguro & far right Ventura. Honestly shocking that the main center right party (PSD) fails to endorse Seguro. They would benefit from reading @dziblatt.bsky.social’s historical work on the topic www.cambridge.org/core/books/c...

O meu hot take: não há grande leitura partidária a tirar do bom resultado de AJ Seguro. Numas eleições percepcionadas como importantes, o eleitorado de esquerda tinha um candidato óbvio em que convergir. O de direita não. Acho que isto explica mais os resultados do que dinâmicas partidárias.

Portugal is having a presidential election tomorrow (Sunday). It is a fairly unusual one, which is representative of how much the political landscape has changed in the country. Here is some quick context about it, in case that is of interest: 1/9

Really excited to be organizing this workshop at LSE with such an impressive lineup! If you're in London join us on January 30th.

📢 UK-based early career researchers — looking for a strong way to kick off 2026? The Fellows in LSE’s Department of Government are organising an Early Career Workshop in late January. Submit your abstract now! 🗓️ Deadline: 28 December 2025 👉 Submit here: forms.gle/QukzsYDSM2Do...

‘On the lesser road, the business of life and death carried on: Roman cemeteries have been found under the Savoy Hotel and a sarcophagus and pottery kiln under St Martin-in-the-Fields.’ Ysenda Maxtone Graham on a biography of London’s Strand. www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...

📢 Call for Submissions UK-based early career researchers in political science, political economy & public policy: apply to our January Early Career Workshop at LSE. 🗓️ Deadline: 28 Dec 2025 🔗 forms.gle/HXU4DnBq9HmX...

At the LSE we're organizing this workshop for UK-based early career researchers in political science, political economy, and public policy. The workshop will take place on Friday, 30 January 2026. The deadline to apply is 28 Dec 2025. Happy to answer any questions! forms.gle/HXU4DnBq9HmX...

Good Big Read on a curiously under discussed topic. on.ft.com/4irWdsc How London’s housing market stagnated

A thought. In 2022-24 incumbents did terribly everywhere and the most common explanation was voters hating inflation. Today inflation is much lower. And Merz, Starmer & Trump are all deeply unpopular.

2/2 ...the prospect of re-election is one of the main factors keeping leaders honest and keeping legislators loyal. If voters hate governments 75% plus of the time, that may encourage more corrupt, lazy and incompetent leadership, and more chaotic and rebellious incumbent parties.

Rightly lots of debates about growth this weekend - rightly because it was low productivity growth that saw wages entirely flatline during the 2010s.

There's a big divide in how Americans are thinking about vaccines: ♦️83% of Republicans don't want an updated COVID-19 vaccine. 🔷64% of Democrats want to get or have already received an updated vaccine. www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/... 🧪

The abolition of the two-child benefit cap, which punishes children for their parents' circumstances, is the best part of the budget, potentially lifting almost half a million children out of poverty. It may also be the part that comes under fiercest attack. So it needs celebrating and defending.

💥 ¿Contribuyen los jueces a la polarización? Según nuestra encuesta, más de la mitad de la izquierda dice que sí. En la derecha, la mayoría cree que no contribuyen.

Are you an ABD needing help with your project? Interested in immigration, autocratization, & religion? Want to spend 2 weeks thinking deeply about interdisciplinary work? This summer school is for you. I'll be one of the instructors helping your think big and rigorously :-) More info below! (1/2)

On the eve of the Autumn Budget, our latest polling finds that *over half* of 2024 Labour voters who are 'finding it difficult' economically have now switched parties. 17% now back the Greens, and a further 17% back Reform. 🧵

2nd edition of our The AI Shift newsletter is out. The question today: could AI be making us LESS productive? @jburnmurdoch.ft.com www.ft.com/content/2480... At the individual level, it's clear we're not reliable witnesses on this Q. At an organisational level, it gets even more interesting...

I’m happy to see this short paper with @fluegeldo.bsky.social on unexpected hikes in voting costs out in @thejop.bsky.social ! doi.org/10.1086/739405 [1/5]

We have just published the call for the Nuffield Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellowships in Politics. These are 3-year fully-funded postdocs that will allow you to focus on your research in a great academic environment. (And with excellent food) www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/the-college/...

In our polling with YouGov, since the start of his second term Donald Trump's net approval has fallen 17pts among white Americans (+17 to -1), 28pts among Hispanic Americans (-9 to -37) and 38pts among black Americans (-36 to -74)

NEW from me: Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent. That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀