New post-locals piece with my brilliant colleague @matthewbprice.bsky.social unherd.com/2026/05/six-...

Excited to reveal the first @focaldata.bsky.social House of Representatives MRP poll of 2026. 🔵 Democrats: 228 seats (+13) 🔴 Republicans: 207 seats (-13) Fieldwork conducted up to Monday this week, and the model accounts for last night's redistricting referendum in Virginia.

The economy might cost Donald Trump the House in November. Economic hardship is driving voter behaviour at more than twice the rate of the next biggest issue.

Greens up to a record high of 13% in our first post-G&D poll. 🟣 RFM: 27% (+1) 🔴 LAB: 20% (-1) 🔵 CON: 18% (-2) 🟠 LDM: 14% (-) 🟢 GRN: 13% (+3) ⚫️ Restore Britain: 2% (NEW) ⚫️ Your Party: <1% (NEW)

Attention spans have collapsed. So why are some politicians more popular than ever?

We're about to release a piece on the attention crisis gripping young people. Some pretty shocking stats in it

We just released our first US midterms polling of 2026. The main story is a familiar one, that the cost of living is again set to punish the incumbent. Since 2024, the Democrats' vote margin has increased by double digits with those most concerned about food/gas prices.

Great to see our latest geopolitics white paper written up by the Guardian's dataviz team! www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...

The geopolitical centre of gravity is shifting towards China, driven primarily by Europe's increased distance from the US under the Trump II era. We analysed decades of UN voting data to create a new US-China axis, and found the US advantage is at its lowest level this century.

Over the last month, I've been analysing the results of thousands of UN votes to create a new geopolitical axis. I was struck by just how severe the Trump effect has been since his second term began. UK-US alignment is now at an all-time low.

guys...

Our first voting intention poll of 2026 sees Reform slipping to 26%, down 3 points since late November. 🟣 RFM: 26% (-3) 🔴 LAB: 21% (+1) 🔵 CON: 20% (+2) 🟠 LDM: 14% (+1) 🟢 GRN: 10% (-2)

Pleased to say we've just launched a new white paper on digital sovereignty (a phrase we'll probably be hearing more of in the next 12 months). Download it here: www.focaldata.com/blog/britain...

On the eve of the Autumn Budget, our latest polling finds that *over half* of 2024 Labour voters who are 'finding it difficult' economically have now switched parties. 17% now back the Greens, and a further 17% back Reform. 🧵

With COP30 coming to a close today, which party do Brits trust most on climate and energy topics? Greens are trusted most on core environmental issues, but fare less well on energy policy. Reflects a common issue, that voters aren't sure climate action = better economic outcomes.

Our latest blog looks at attitudes to proportional representation in the UK, and why the debate is likely to go mainstream in the next couple of years. But how would a PR referendum campaign go? What would the House of Commons look like under PR? 👇 www.focaldata.com/blog/has-the...

NEW: Brits would back Zack Polanski if they had a vote in the Green Party leadership election. After seeing campaign videos from each candidate, voters across all age groups, parties and regions preferred Polanski to the Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns candidacy 👇

We've got some polling coming on the Green Party leadership race this week, with voting still open for party members. We showed the public videos from the two campaigns and asked who they would vote for if they were eligible. One campaign leads with voters of *all parties*.

We've just released a new white paper here at @focaldata.bsky.social, explaining why support for overseas aid has fallen among both voters and governments in the West, and why Net Zero risks going the same way. 🧵 Quick thread of some of the findings:

Small samples so would be careful over-interpreting, but seeing evidence of the young gender split in our poll (Reform at 25% with male 16-17 year olds, 10% with female)

Latest Westminster voting intention from us at @focaldata.bsky.social sees minor impact of votes at 16 (Reform's lead cut from 3.7 points to 3.3)

Stats-based forecast for tonight's Eurovision final. The model is based on a combination of historical voting patterns, running order analysis, betting odds, and my own subjective opinion. Basically a coin flip that Sweden 🇸🇪 gets its 8th victory tonight based on 5,000 simulations.

Labour about to fall into *sixth* including independents...

🇨🇦🧵 Quick thread on some of our findings ahead of today's Canadian election. Our headline results put the Liberals ahead, but we've uncovered evidence that the Conservatives may have won the election (or at least the most seats) if Trump had not won in November.

Our poll for Monday's Canadian election finds the Liberals with a narrow 3-point lead, with 40.5% of the vote to the Conservatives' 37.5%. Some very interesting findings under the hood -- more details coming over the weekend.

Latest UK voting intention from us finds Labour, Conservatives and Reform neck-and-neck... www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...

New piece from me on where the public in 🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪 stands on defence and security. www.focaldata.com/blog/will-se...

Yesterday, we presented some exclusive findings from a European survey (covering 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧) at the CEPS Ideas Lab in Brussels. With defence and security in the news, here are our key findings on that particular topic... 🧵

Our analysis of the geography of GE2024 is now out in @politicalquarterly.bsky.social. This offers an important update of The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales by @jwfurlong.bsky.social and me, published by OUP just ahead of the election. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Our final Bi_Focal of 2024 looks at the key lessons we've drawn from a very busy and consequential year of polling: what went well? What were the mega themes? What should the industry be doing going forward? www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...

In case we didn’t know already, Biden-Trump would have been a landslide…

Amazing to see!

This. Also one of the driving factors behind Trump's appeal to low interest voters (somewhat of an overlap between authenticity and entertainment as well).

It really is amazing just how big a difference institutions can make to our politics. Here's the effective number of seat-winning parties in New Zealand before and after it switched to a mixed-member proportional system

This is starting to feel like a viable platform now, v exciting!

Anyone got starter packs / lists of English-speaking accounts to follow for the German election?

Brilliant tool for finding people to follow on here.

Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been. The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true. On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!

This is a fascinating piece by @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social and well worth a read!

Are the polls underestimating Trump again? ✍️ New from me in Unherd unherd.com/newsroom/are...

The polls underestimated Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020. There's a risk that may happen again in November. Pollsters' reliance on self-reported likelihood to vote is causing some of the problem. 🧵