Trump’s strikes on Iran don’t fit neatly into the usual binary of U.S. foreign policy, which tends to see isolationism as the only alternative to engagement, writes columnist @emmamashford.bsky.social.

So much we don’t know yet. But generally agree with @emmamashford.bsky.social thus far.

Europe has a weaker hand than it thinks on Ukraine—By constantly shifting the goalposts — downsizing potential troop deployments and issuing mostly empty threats to Russia — EU leaders have instead signalled their weakness. www.ft.com/content/677e... @emmamashford.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

Defeatism or survival?

“Signal is a tool. If you misuse a tool, bad things are going to happen. If you hit yourself in the face with a hammer, it’s not the hammer’s fault. It’s really on you to make sure you know who you’re talking to.”

Like there are lots of things wrong with using Signal to discuss blowing up "the missile guy" in a house with 15 civilians in it, and the "using Signal" bit is very much only one of the ways that sentence is wrong, and a teeny tiny bit disturbing that it's the only way that seems to connect

Not to be a wide-eyed naïf about such things but... am I right in thinking that they levelled an entire building to get to one guy and *that* is not controversial to anyone in the American media or political class, only that this information was recklessly shared in an unsecured chat?

Mike Waltz denouncing Goldberg resembles nothing so much as a guy trying to frantically explain to his wife why his ex-girlfriend's number is still in his phone contacts. 😂

What will you do when DOGE comes for you? In the new It's Debatable for @ForeignPolicy, @MatthewKroenig and I debate whether DOGE cuts to USIP, VOA, and USAID will impact US foreign policy for good or ill. 👇

My @stimsoncenter.bsky.social colleague @evancooper.bsky.social has a new series out: Diplomacy Wins, focusing on the success stories of US diplomats. Particularly as US soft power is being degraded, we must remember that diplomacy is a vital counterpart to military force in US foreign policy.

Looks like the reaction to the blowout in the oval office has moved the needle a little on Americans' perceptions of Ukraine, but along highly partisan lines.

Omg is it Time to Bomb Iran Day again already? It seems to get earlier every year. I didn’t even remember to buy a cake.

Nordstream was always the best example of the divergence between Ukrainian interests and broader European ones -- and it will probably continue to be so if a peace is signed.

I know @vgr.bsky.social loves a good 2x2 and this is one of the best I’ve seen in a while

Donald Trump is every undergrad who forgot to study for the midterm and only barely remembers the lecture, but now they’re on a roll.

Wall Street Journal not mincing words this morning: "We said from the beginning that this North American trade war is the dumbest in history, and we were being kind."

Maybe we could try to redirect DOGE at something more productive, like BRAC. @capreble and @nick_clevelands make the case. responsiblestatecraft.org/dog...

As a few people have asked, a thread on the MV Solong/MV Stena Immaculate collision from your friendly neighbourhood maritime expert. A big ol' caveat that this is all still developing, but this is what we know. Please treat all "act of war" talk you see online very carefully at this stage!

As an immigrant to the US after 9/11, I find the idea that immigrants don't have more reason to fear state power to be laughable. The Khalil case is chilling for free speech, but let's not pretend that US immigration rules have ever been anything other than arbitrary on this question.

Never thought I'd see this sentence in Foreign Affairs, tbh.

🗣️ As Trump and Putin consider meeting, @agathedemarais.bsky.social explores why Moscow’s shrinking fiscal reserves could be pushing the Kremlin to the negotiating table. With no Plan D to fund its budget deficit, is Putin seeking a financial lifeline? via @politico.eu 📰

Looks like we have a finalized "rare minerals" deal with Ukraine. It doesn't seem to have changed much from the interim version. While it could have implications for reconstruction if fleshed out, as it stands, it's probably a bit of a nothingburger.

Absolutely astounding the ways in which three decades of rhetoric about values has led many in the West to be literally unable to comprehend military power and why it matters. "Right makes Might" does not seem like a viable strategy.

Ironic that undersea cable cutting seems to be becoming a common act of hostility between states right as the owner of the world's most effective backup/alternative (Starlink) is distracted playing slash-and-burn with the federal bureaucracy. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/w...

Easy to solve the free rider problem and get your allies to boost defense spending if you start actively threatening them.

DC friends: I'll be launching my new book, Strategy and Grand Strategy, at @AU_SIS next Monday, along with the great @emmamashford.bsky.social and @dmedelstein.bsky.social. Information and registration at the link. Join us! www.eventbrite.com/e/sis-book-l...

🚨Today at 12:30 ET🚨 Join @akendalltaylor.bsky.social and Jim Townsend in conversation with @emmamashford.bsky.social and @stephenwertheim.bsky.social on the future of the U.S. in Europe, the Trump administration's recent statements on Ukraine, and more. Watch it here: www.cnas.org/events/virtu...

We’re joined by @emmamashford.bsky.social for an assessment of what Ukraine can do to defend itself and rebuild after the horrendous damage Russia has inflicted on the country following some kind of peace settlement. soundcloud.com/user-8304426...

To ensure that Ukraine can defend itself against Russian aggression in the future, European states should stop focusing on direct security guarantees—and instead help Kyiv build a robust homegrown defensive capability, writes @emmamashford.bsky.social.

I wrote for @foreignaffairs.com about the prospect of European security guarantees to Ukraine — and why they aren’t the only option for negotiators. www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukra...

The main task for European leaders on defense is to treat it like an economic crisis, ala COVID/energy crisis, and therefore need urgent action (ala EU borrowing/national spending). It’s a task for finance ministers.

Oh my God, this is the stupidest thing I can imagine.

Just back from Europe and many struck by numbing cognitive break as they watch US. But there is no quick deal that will solve it. Instead, Europe needs to find its strengths just as Russia is militarily spent and China faces economic weakness. Key strategy = reach out to the world as others retreat.

If you're ever feeling embarrassed by a typo, just remember that whomever typed up NSC-68, the seminal Cold War position paper from 1950, turned "the Kremlin" into "the Gremlin" at one point.

A banner company has the chance to do the funniest thing possible.

Far more essential than reporting on the state of battlefields abroad for understanding the New Orleans attack is this kind of reporting on the failures to harden targets. www.washingtonpost.com/investigatio...

A fascinating longread from Keith Gessen about the undercover sociologists trying to figure out what Russians really think about the war. BLUF: It's complicated www.newyorker.com/news/a-repor...

A nice, thorough overview of the Greenland issue from Politico that doesn't just devolve to calling it either crazy or awesome. www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Former CA First Lady @mariashriver.bsky.social has compiled this vetted list of charities helping those impacted by the Southern California fires including CA Community Fdn, World Food Kitchen, Pasadena Humane Society & more www.today.com/news/climate...

AEI report argues "maintaining security in a strategic environment in which Russia is victorious over Ukraine could cost the United States an additional $808 bn in defense spending over 5 years." The assumptions in here are... let's say "questionable." A 🧵: www.aei.org/research-pro...

What 8 simmering threats could erupt in 2025? I take a stab at answering, along with @emmamashford.bsky.social @nickaspinwall.bsky.social @elisabethbraw.bsky.social Markus Garlauskas @aloraibi.bsky.social Natia Seskuria @sushantsingh.bsky.social foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/02/m...

“I’ll stop drinking if you let me run the Pentagon” is maybe the most alcoholic thing anyone has ever said

Some folks seem to be rolling their eyes at this story, but the State Dept's allegation is that the covert intel entity embedded at RT didn't arrive until 2023, so this isn't the same ole "Russian propaganda is bad and in league with the Kremlin" stuff. bsky.app/profile/kevi...

Europe digesting the US presidential debate

What does the US want in Ukraine? A joint article by me, Stephen Wertheim & Josh Shifrinson looks at what comes after the supplemental - and argues that we're making similar mistakes to prior wars prioritizing spending while kicking strategic debate down the road. foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/09/a...

The actions at UVA are particularly appalling, given how the university and police handled the 2017 "Unite the Right" (neo-Nazi) rally there. In case you think anyone in power actually gives a shit about antisemitism in all this, think about that. theracket.news/p/when-the-h...

ICYMI: You asked, we delivered. It's Debatable this weekend takes on what Republican foreign policy might look like in a second Trump term. Matt Kreonig thinks there will be continuity and a Trump-Reagan fusion; I am not so sure about that.

Things they don't tell you about being a parent #672: sitting up late trying to sew a toga for the Ides of March at school and then frantically googling "Roman hairstyles" at 7am.

Revisiting what I wrote late last night and you can tell that the final stretch of the book drafting is going great.