Good. Russia is in no position to mess w NATO (even w US absent) & its incursions are (for now) empty probes. Risk is they’ll establish a precedent for when Russia’s military has recovered. A firm response led by the Euros would bolster credibility & accelerate NATO’s shift toward greater autonomy.

So the federal govt can trample on the first amendment to enforce the (totally undefined) "civic obligations" of private entities. Cool cool got it. That's definitely not an apologia for authoritarianism.

Homan really testing out administration policy that it’s not actionable corruption unless it involves a giant canvas bag marked with dollar signs and a notarized agreement entitled Massive Bribe

Interesting choice to reopen the one issue where Elon Musk’s economic self-interest seems capable of outweighing his virulent racism.

Russia is in absolutely no position to pick a fight with anyone right now so there’s comparatively little downside to taking a pretty belligerent stance on this to show NATO means something. Maybe not in response to a first provocation. But there will very likely be a next time…

you don't have to do this shit. really. you could always just...not.

Moving to Hollywood to take up screenwriting so I can pen my controversial masterpiece “Kilgore Wasn’t the Good Guy”

There’s a coherent grand strategy that’d support this, but as a means to radically cut defense spending. They’re…not doing that. So where’s all that money gonna go? Wish I could rule out “occupying major US cities and a fleet of armed drones for the border,” but… www.politico.com/news/2025/09...

Clever of David Brooks to harp on and on about the importance of “culture” without saying how culture explains, say, persistent racial inequities. I doubt he’d say white racism. So…what about black culture is driving this? Do tell, David. Why I Am Not a Liberal www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/o...

Might wanna re-check the dates of the manhattan project and who we were fighting at that point

In all seriousness we could’ve avoided all this nonsense if legacy media outlets had called bullshit by its name…like Wired is doing…from the outset.

Rigorous, objective analysis of hard data.

An entire scientific field is being derailed. Countless doctors and scientists who could be, you know, curing new shit are gonna have to spend years systematically debunking stuff that everyone with 8 functioning brain cells already knows to be nonsense. The opportunity costs alone are staggering.

Deploying national guard to blue state cities is clearly an attempt to normalize using the military for civilian purposes in an “emergency.” Underappreciated possibility the transparent phoniness of it all just pisses off the people he’ll need on his side when he inevitably attempts another coup.

Can’t say they won’t stumble their way into trying it, but it is, and will be for the foreseeable future, next to impossible. Not saying ROC’s hair won’t get mussed. But transporting the necessary PRC troops and materiel across 100 miles of hotly contested open water would be absolutely suicidal.

I’m old enough to remember when she got canceled so hard it caused grave and irreparable damage to her career

Resistance is not futile

Mike Judge would’ve cut this as too unrealistic.

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say the US military had less lethal ways of interdicting this vessel.

Mr. Kennedy. St Michaels High School, 9th grade world history. I still quote him more or less verbatim when I teach undergrads about the Monroe Doctrine. He also tried his best (though ultimately unsuccessfully) to make me a passable chess player. No idea where he is now but he fucking rocked.

Ah shit why didn’t we try that? Oh well good effort everyone. Time to pack it in now.

My shitty garage punk band in high school got disqualified from a battle of the bands at a local catholic high school after we finished our set by throwing a bunch of condoms out to the crowd. Did I do this right?

I feel this shit in my bones

The US has been actively supporting Israel’s campaign, which is directly causing the “humanitarian crisis.” So….no?

A new piece I wrote appearing in FOREIGN AFFAIRS today www.foreignaffairs.com/germany/warn...

No biggie just the president of the United States threatening his political opponents with federal prosecution for staging protests

The warrior ethos at work

I think it’d be mostly fine for non-evil/dumb people

Just so we’re all clear: it is theoretically possible for a target to be of such a high strategic value that it’d make a school full of kids a legitimate target. Awful, but true. It makes zero fucking difference who those kids’ parents are.

Except Stephen Miller. Somehow that fucker continually stays on Orange Sauron’s good side. Wonder what underlying motivation could keep those two so consistently aligned…

Why that one? hmmmmm

Ask folks why racial wealth disparities exist. It has to boil down to either structure or agents. If you reject structure, then you’re arguing that black people systematically make worse choices, are less capable, etc. Most people aren’t ready to accept that implication of denying structural causes.

Eye squarely on the ball…

And every act of opposition both 1) decreases the costs for others to oppose him, and 2) decreases his popularity further, esp when he retaliates in clearly punitive and illegal ways. As ever, it’s all collective action problems, all the way down.

Excellent choice to pick two cases of unconditional surrender as his illustrative examples here

Not to mention the classroom dilemma where objectively describing the US as going through a democratic breakdown sounds like some hyperpartisan position. Particularly difficult at red state publics where saying anything like this might get you fired.

Look anyone who gets upset about the word unhoused has already had their brain turned to mush by Fox News it’s not some good faith baby deer of an undecided voter…fuck me this is the dumbest timeline

Shit yeah we do I will fight you over a subpar crab cake

This. MAGAs get mad about what Fox tells them to get mad about. And Fox dgaf whether it’s coming from Biden, AOC, or a freshman at Oberlin. Republicans have a dominant strategy here. Dems changing their language has zero effect on what Fox froths about or how quickly their viewers internalize it.

“Crime is out of control! I’m sending in the national guard!” “Crime is plummeting. See: facts.” “So you accept my premise.” Huh?

Dunno about research but it’s really fucking up my intro IR course since all my “how are authoritarian states different from democracies like the US?” slides have just gone to shit.

i just wanted some shoes, man...and you gotta show me these war crimes. i'm a peaceful man but if i ever see someone wearing these in real life we're gonna have to fight to the death.

This is intro shit. Crises are basically a game of chicken, i.e. there’s a first-mover advantage. The first side that credibly commits to standing firm wins bc it forces the other to choose between capitulation and war. Telling Russia “you go first, then we’ll respond” gives away all the leverage.

Between the JD Vance couch fucking saga and sandwich guy becoming a symbol of resistance I’m increasingly convinced it’ll take something profoundly stupid to take down a movement as stupid as maga

The substance of any peace agreement is less important than what happens after. The implications of US security guarantees depend entirely on who’s in the White House. Future Russian aggression depends on what sanctions it’ll still be facing and what military aid Ukraine gets.

Yeeeeeah that sounds…flimsy at best.

STRUGGLING with this right now as I finish the conclusion to my book.

Or 3) being perceived as having some kind of principles. Maybe subsumed under charisma but seems like lot of folks have converged on the idea that L/R axis is less important than the do something/twiddle thumbs axis

Yes. Then a quick “welp…get ‘em next time” and move on.