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Started/going, Sohrab Ahmari edition

I find this to be a deeply troubling statement to make in a Jewish publication. (jewishcurrents.org/when-jewishn...)

While I don't care at all for the hurt feelings of Democratic officials, I think the undeniable weakness of the anti-war protests is something to think about. Most responses to the piece are dismissive and apologetic in an unserious way.

AFRICOM confirms a U.S. strike in the Golis Mountains southeast of Bosaso on April 6. Brings declared strikes this year to 50. Also confirmed 49 strikes through the end of March. www.newamerica.org/insights/ame...

Weird that having a set of negotiations in which there are no proper diplomats leads to a situation in which no one has a clue what's actually been agreed.

Regardless of the actual character of the ongoing fire, seems notable for the SecDef to seemingly acknowledge (albeit laughingly) that targeting leadership/command and control may yet pose a risk to desired negotiated ends.

AFRICOM confirms a U.S. strike in the Golis Mountains southeast of Bosaso on April 6. Brings declared strikes this year to 50. Also confirmed 49 strikes through the end of March. www.newamerica.org/insights/ame...

Reacting to Iran having stronger versions of its stance in Farsi version of 10 point negotiating position - which is NOT the ceasefire deal as if it’s a clear sign of where things are going is a damning indictment of the conventional wisdom here’s issues and scholars should have more due diligence.

For folks who have been discussing limits of quick war theories, lot of talk assuming outlines of a ceasefire that may not stick compounded by the largest claims of Iran as to what deal will be will stick over the long term.

If the right-wing Iran hawk wishcast is "We only have to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down," the left-wing wishcast is Iran will be able to impose a tax on world energy consumption against all international law and the interests of every great power but Russia

US, Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire. Some thoughts: -Both had strong reasons to want the war to stop (very costly for each, even if in a very different way) -Their demands in coming talks for a durable ceasefire are VERY distant, & both will be intransigent -So the risk of renewed violence is real

One important question on the deal is whether it is region-wide and includes Lebanon.

The weirdness goes beyond Trump himself too: Key details on first big strike in Somalia seemingly first given to a British tabloid. WH releases of strike videos as commands pull back on transparency. WH releases of video/statements that misdate events. Sudden halts to messaging on certain theaters

Noting pretty sharp swing on this site from over-interpreted reporting on Trump being willing to walk away from the Strait of Hormuz issue to the foreboding today. Cause for folks to be cautious about how this site like others warps what one sees and views as conventional wisdom.

Turns out understanding what’s going on with these seemingly covert/unclear strikes might be pretty relevant to broader qs of regional security dynamics that ought to be getting public scrutiny and discussion. www.yemenonline.info/politics/12229

Or perhaps this might be more apropos on this point now.

The sense of foreboding that the war will escalate/spread. That’s something long ago identified as part of the character of endless war. This from Sweezy et al’s Vietnam: The Endless War published in 1970.

Warrington an interesting figure for this personal impact of Iran to be coming from. Former Ron Paul guy, own military experience is not from the most recent periods folks most focus on around this q (though sounds like loss might be)

Keep an eye on these state-level terrorism designation pushes. In addition to the bad justifications/motives for these, the idea of sub-national terrorism designation likely poses real threats to the idea of a functioning designation/sanctions architecture. www.yahoo.com/news/article...

We might think the effect of Trump's antisemitism policies is an overinclusion problem -- seeing "too much". But, drawing on feminist work on "testimonial smothering", I argue that we're likely to see Jews self-censor their instincts on antisemitism, to avoid triggering Trump's draconian responses.

I have new paper coming out, "Smothering (the Fight Against) Antisemitism", that discusses an underappreciated impact of Trump's hyper-aggressive interventions against (real and imagined) antisemitism: Their net effect is likely to *deter* Jews from testifying about antisemitism they experience!

I mean ok, but if the US struggles to choose now, and your three options are walk away but have to come back to mow the grass, just continue the war, and escalate in potentially lengthy and costly ways - just perhaps you should be paying more attention to quagmire frame www.rand.org/pubs/comment...

The sense of foreboding that the war will escalate/spread. That’s something long ago identified as part of the character of endless war. This from Sweezy et al’s Vietnam: The Endless War published in 1970.

About a week into April and no acknowledged US strikes in Somalia so far. Possible we’ll get announcements in next days but interesting given prior pace. Last known strike was 3/27. www.newamerica.org/insights/ame...

In 2016, he boasted of having a secret plan to defeat the Islamic State. In Trump 1.0, this secret plan turned out to be adopting the outgoing Obama administration's plan but switching from "ISIL" to "ISIS."

In response to a law passed in the #Knesset expanding the death penalty for #Palestinians implicated in acts of terrorism, the West Bank has gone on general strike. In #Ramallah, streets are empty as banks, universities, and other business have shuttered.

On one hand this clearly skips over the specific context. On the other, the death penalty is wrong, and is particularly problematic for politically charged crimes - and the U.S. including Biden when commuting death sentences made a choice to embrace it anyways. www.jpost.com/israel-news/...

Basically the core definition of endlessness. And as Freedman notes (and is common with other historical cases) this condition often leads to pressure to escalate (which we are seeing) or sudden exits as the juice is deemed not worth the squeeze. samf.substack.com/p/a-plan-to-...

Certainly adds a bit of a twist to everyone’s rote citation of Bombing to Win. Obviously a lot of ways tension is resolved or explained as not there. But a lot of the citations feel like they don’t cover Iran’s side of this war even if conclusion is still applies there.

The problem isn’t that two aircraft were shot down. The problem is that we aren’t psychologically or politically prepared to suffer any losses, because this entire war has been sold as a video game set on “easy” and not as a cause worth sacrifice.

Imagining the NYT reader who just really would dismiss this teleportation claim except the headline was sarcastically understated so now they think just maybe he did teleport. Come now, what a goofy discourse.

Ok I’m sorry but this headline rocks. It is clearly making fun of him

There’s some sloppy language but the concern is not purely sloppy language. “Accordingly, it is equally prohibited to treat wounded or sick combatants, medical or religious personnel and captured combatants (prisoners of war) as hostages.[39]” ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treat...

Also along with various other conflicts, the view these are discrete conflicts (or even in incidents) is a view promulgated imo by many international law folks. And also by much scholarly work though less so recently. They often get too much of a pass.

While the general Iran situation is horrendous, I am pleased that the US Intelligence Community is still willing and able to deliver bad news regarding an issue in which the president and senior cabinet officials are heavily invested.

In response to a generic “Happy Passover” post, it’s just a sea of “Christ is King” comments, comments about Israel, memes about Chasidic Jews & memes about Netanyahu controlling the Instagram account.

The idea that a credibly signaled regime change /collapse effort would be calibrated and would get a limited response is so head scratchingly nuts, I think we do need to wonder if this framing is itself just admin excuse making/buck passing. Then again lots of illogical views these days.

Has there been any follow up reporting or comment post CENTCOM’s denial of the Lamerd strike? I feel like I haven’t really seen anything. Seems like a false/wrong denial here would be a big story in its own right.

This seems like a pretty massive mess up by someone either the initial reports/OSINT analysis or by CENTCOM. CENTCOM says no strikes in area and says it’s analysis of missile is it was a different kind. www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-...

I am particularly interested in the claim here that the targeted killing of Iranian leaders has somewhat carefully avoided killing figures of particular political lines. Lot of the dispute over this seems to come down to where you place some key figures. www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/real-wa...

Putting it out there that while this may be where things end up, the actual evidence in this article is to say the least quite weak on White House intent, focusing on an evasive answer and not giving headline space to two other comments that would seem to contradict it. time.com/article/2026...

Writing articles comparing questions of what constitutes legitimate military targets without the words “military necessity” or “precision” or discussion of international law strikes me as deeply questionable both in intent and impact.

Breaking: The attack earlier this month on a Michigan synagogue was a Hezbollah-inspired act of terrorism targeting the Jewish community, the FBI says. www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/u...

I agree that the headline seems off. Mostly because I don’t think it defines the concept to start. But also want to say that negatively polarizing yourself into it can’t be an insurgency if it uses high tech weaponry is simply another way of falling into this trap. apnews.com/article/iran...

POTUS saying the quiet part out loud as he usurps Congress’s war powers to wage an unlawful and unnecessary conflict against Iran. Word games aside, congressional authorization was necessary and this war is flagrantly illegal.

Only 23% of government workers believe they “can report a suspected violation of a law, rule, or regulation without experiencing retaliation.” That's way down form the share the prior year (72%) who said they could report suspected illegal activity without fear www.thebulwark.com/p/two-more-g...

Not sure I entirely buy the case that an intercepted Houthi missile attack towards Israel can only be read as a sign of strength. It’s among the lower stakes forms they could take and is not unprecedented. While watching the real big scenarios, just assuming that’s what’s at work seems risky.

This but even more so for social media discussion of Houthi threats featuring neither Iran experts nor anyone versed in / knowledgable about the specific Yemeni context.

Reading Underground Asia: Global Revolutionaries and the Assault on Empire and did not expect a little section on the translation of Jules Verne and various detective stories. Just fascinating little details.