The reports of an alleged U.S. strike in Yemen against AQAP appear to have spread to local outlets across the spectrum of Yemeni factions. A notable convergence for trying to understand what may have occurred. Of course, the U.S. can and should clarify if it was its strike.

"Hegseth refused to sit for an interview with the inspector general and submitted his version of events in writing, sources told CNN." www.cnn.com/2025/12/03/p...

The fundamental problem with the argument that any of the US military's attacks on the vessel on September 2nd were lawful is that there is no armed conflict. Thus no military objectives. And the notion of "war sustaining" objects outside of war is absurd. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

I do not get why folks are using the jargon of “double tap” strike for the 9/2 boat strike. It has no set meaning, the reasons the strikes are in q do not derive from its simple nature as two strikes, and it does not reflect the context of most historical critiques of double tap (respondent risk).

Based on some of the references around strikes, very much think a lot of folks’ understanding of Awlaki’s role in attack plotting and AQAP generally has not been sufficiently updated for the evidence of its extent that has emerged over the years.

From the F-16 squadron commander’s Silver Star citation reported on here, it sounds like besides all the downed Reapers, the Air Force narrowly avoided losing one or more manned fighter jets to Houthi air defenses over Yemen during Operation Rough Rider last March

The Franklin the Turtle image that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth posted apparently came from a right-wing content creator known as "Maverick Alexander." Among the images Alexander has posted with the Franklin character includes dedicated to 9/11 trutherism.

Couple Gorka tweets that suggest to me there’s a real tension produced by the reported fact pattern of the second strike and the legal justification for strikes overall that as I understand it relies on the boats being the targets not people.

This reminds me of the time the White House wanted to tout how many jihadists it killed in a strike and put out a statement that misdated a strike. This is less bad as act of commission but possibly worse in terms of worsening the info environment around strikes in Somalia.

I see bluesky brain got ahold of this one Anyway tHeY'vE aLwAyS bEeN lIkE tHiS isn't just an insult to all the people who no, were very much not like this actually, but is implicitly ceding ground to ever hold anyone accountable But don't want power, endlessly critique power, etc etc

At the absurdity masquerading as a Pentagon press conference, a question was asked about Somalia that appears to reference US troops doing a raid that AFRICOM has not confirmed and my understanding is may be a false description. It of course got no clarity. www.youtube.com/watch?start=...

US (alleged) drone strikes against Al-Qaeda in Yemen get far too little attention. Attention focuses on louder, larger campaigns in Yemen vs the Houthis, in Somalia, vs the alleged drug boats. But it should be a major issue there keep being reports of US strikes w/o clear confirmation or denial.

Latest claimed defenses re SecDef ordering lethal attack but not specifically second strike reraising this q for me.

Seems to me that issuing an order / instructions that don’t account for / plan for possibility of survivors isn’t really a fact pattern that resolves the criticisms or absolves responsibility.

Some reports of another possible US strike in Yemen vs AQAP (nit anti Houthi strikes). The latest in a small number of reports of strikes in a country where the U.S. has not confirmed such a strike in years - suggesting a covert effort or that it’s someone else. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

Some reports of another possible US strike in Yemen vs AQAP (nit anti Houthi strikes). The latest in a small number of reports of strikes in a country where the U.S. has not confirmed such a strike in years - suggesting a covert effort or that it’s someone else. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

Note two things about GOP Rep. Mike Turner's solid remarks on Hegseth's reported order: 1) Turner: "I agree that that would be an illegal act." 2) Implicitly confirms the Washington Post's reporting that this information has been kept from Congress

Related. This AP report identifies March ‘23 as a shift in behavior. But importantly neither identifies an ideological element or leakage of any plans to publicly externalize harm (though we’re worries about set-harm). www.politico.com/news/2025/11...

So big caution on what this means given they don’t know the motive. But this is almost certainly fundamentally at odds with immigration-focused responses. “We believe he was radicalized since he’s been here in this country” www.politico.com/news/2025/11...

Senator Kelly is correct. Plus a Public Service Announcement: KEY section of Department of Defense's Law of War Manual is 18.3.2.1. The VERY rule on the "requirement" to refuse illegal orders gives as its paradigmatic example of what is "clearly illegal: "orders to fire upon the shipwrecked."

I’m not sure what it says but it feels notable that the DC National Guard shooting seems to be getting far more focus than either: A) the New Years 2025 attack that was deadlier, known to be ISIS inspired, had some explosives relevance. B) the 2019 AQAP coordinated Pensacola attack.

Unironically heartened to see the Senate Minority Leader vowing accountability.

And my recommendations on how to deny Trump a license to kill. 3/n

See last para of Sec. Hegseth's post. I'm old enough to remember (from a couple of weeks ago) this admin claiming War Powers Act didn't apply because our military was NOT at risk. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...

May not be up to speed on latest but one thing re this and recent report has me wondering. Didn’t the reporting on legal justification emphasize as a key part that the logic was destroying resources (boats) not killing the staff? Feels like this and the reported order specifically undermine that

One explanation for why Trump was focused on Somalis in the U.S. post DC shooting is that going back to 2015/16 and the campaign his rhetoric around the Muslim/travel ban always in included a focus on Somalis. It was a thing in part due to a few inspired jihadist attacks by Somali Americans.

Along with the obvious implications of what amounts to a “no quarter” order by Hegseth and compliance by the commanders of JSOC and SEAL Team 6, it’s important that @alexhorton.bsky.social and Ellen Nakashima have nailed down those organizations in particular as the ones leading the boat strikes.

Is it just me or does a lot of the discussion of the current anti-immigration anti-refugee Trump reaction to the DC shooting feel like it weirdly erases the context/links to the travel ban?

A lot here beyond the top-level headline: - the shift in approach to survivors and what that suggests. - the qs around what’s missing in videos, and the description of the one. - wide view that casualties included migrants with nothing to do with drugs www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

I’m not saying there’s no possibility of failures re entry, but an attack seemingly 4 years after entry by someone who was previously part of a partner force does not strike me as a fact pattern likely to have the main failure (if any) in allowing entry / failure of vetting at entry.

This administration has no sense of what it and the American public owes Afghans and Iraqis. Beyond broader objections, the approach to Iraqi and Afghan refugees/immigrants from the initial inclusion of Iraq in the travel ban in the first term to recent acts re Afg are deeply immoral.

Folks should probably cease the speculation criticisms now I think and consider that further emphasis on street crime possibility / speculation holds real risk of fueling conspiracy. www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/202...

Not a fan of this article. The “certainly not terrorists” quote with no real explanation or evidence is not great. The Antifa quote at the end is pretty goofy frame. None of this is necessary to think the designations are bad and/or twisting of the law. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

An important follow on point from the 2nd note here re the number of ISIS strikes is that the opening of a campaign against ISIS is a major factor in the escalation. Numbers still up but far less radically if you only look at Al Shabaab strikes. Analyses of escalation must explore that decision

Twice as many strikes as Biden's four years

Per AFRICOM - 101 airstrikes in Somalia this year so far. 59 specifically targeted ISIS. — That’s unprecedented in two ways. First, largest annual number of strikes in Somalia. Second, in that the majority are targeting ISIS and not Al-Shabaab.

When looking at the Trump admin’s use of terrorist designations I think it’s essential to not treat as simply a matter of domestic politics. In both the cartel designations and the seemingly coming Muslim Brotherhood ones, these have precursors and origins outside the U.S.

AC-130 gunships lasing targets. Griffin missiles captured fractions of a second before impact. RQ-4 Global Hawk drones filming it all. Seeing beyond the redactions in the Pentagon’s attack videos w/ @docubrent @carolrosenberg @cjchivers www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/u...

Interesting AFRICOM press release for 11/25 strike in Somalia says an air strike but Puntland CTO and Garowe Online seem to suggest there was a ground portion involving US and the Garowe report seems to cite AFRICOM as source (not clear that’s accurate to me). Have query out for clarification.

This very much catches my eye. ctc.westpoint.edu/a-view-from-...

This is a really interesting article. ctc.westpoint.edu/the-best-of-...

Guillermo Del Toro's "At the Mountains of Madness."

It doesn't matter how you think the Ukraine war should end. This is not normal. (also, a bit too soon to call Gaza ceasefire a 'triumph')

This article suggests to me the value of a usable concept of endlessness. Russia is wrestling with a dispute at the core of the q of endlessness - are material trends towards a version of success or do claims they are conceal/promote a larger stuckedness. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...

This is one to watch. As political listings become politicized, challenges to them become increasingly important in democracies. What happens here will likely inform efforts in other jurisdictions. www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11...

NEW: White House blew past legal concerns in deadly strikes on drug boats. Work began on secret CIA finding early in the administration, prompting pushback re use of lethal force. Officials persisted in seeking, military and covert options. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Personally don’t find this convincing. To me it heavily relies on simultaneous downplaying of known details of Awlaki’s activity and downplaying of the extremity of recent strikes to make it seem like there’s not a a major jump. www.justsecurity.org/124776/secre...

Another point: the Trump admin is REALLY using terrorist designation a lot this term. Unprecedented increase in FTOs. There are now 90 groups on the Foreign Terrorist Organization list. In the mid-2010s, there were around 60 FTOs.

BREAKING: Judge Cobb rules that the Pentagon's National Guard deployment into D.C. was illegal. However, she has stayed the effect of her order until Dec. 11 to prevent disorder while the matter is under appeal. ecf.dcd.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/show...

fwiw, when the district court judge in this same case blocked trump from deploying the guard in chicago, she based her reasoning in part on several instances in which a grand jury declined to indict protestors whom ice/cbp claimed attacked them