My latest: Is the U.S. conducting strikes against Al Qaeda in Yemen? My look at recent reports, the dangers of a return to seemingly covert strikes, and why it’s a failure even if recent strikes are not American. www.justsecurity.org/129392/us-ai...

The U.S. gov and media are pretty silent but Yemeni and regional news are alight with multiple reports of alleged American strikes against AQAP in Yemen. That should flag a need for more transparency, oversight, and more reporting effort on the U.S. side. www.justsecurity.org/129392/us-ai...

Do you know if your government is conducting strikes against al Qaeda in Yemen? That this can even be a question is a worrisome indictment of current policy whether strikes make sense or not. www.justsecurity.org/129392/us-ai...

Do you know if your government is conducting strikes against al Qaeda in Yemen? That this can even be a question is a worrisome indictment of current policy whether strikes make sense or not. www.justsecurity.org/129392/us-ai...

The U.S. government hasn’t claimed responsibility for an airstrike against AQAP in Yemen since 2020. But the U.S. may still be targeting the al Qaeda branch, David Sterman writes. He argues that transparency is necessary for oversight and accountability. www.justsecurity.org/129392/us-ai...

My latest: Is the U.S. conducting strikes against Al Qaeda in Yemen? My look at recent reports, the dangers of a return to seemingly covert strikes, and why it’s a failure even if recent strikes are not American. www.justsecurity.org/129392/us-ai...

Al Shabaab claims a U.S. strike on Feb 8 killed a Shabaab official. Somali gov confirmed the strike but didn’t name US. In reply to query, AFRICOM says they didn’t conduct a strike on that date.

Took a while but finished listening to Tanenhaus’ Buckley. Really enjoyed it.

A new strike press release for a 2/9 strike brings the year to date total in Somalia to 29 strikes. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

One thing I’ve stressed talking to reporters on Somalia strikes: it’s important to distinguish ISIS strikes from Shabaab strikes. They’re very different groups and not only is there reason to think limited aims can be achieved vs IS but escalation may be motivated by opportunity vs. just threat.

Latest UN report has generally positive things to say about the effectiveness of CT operations against ISIS-Somalia. Worth a read for folks following the larger U.S. escalation there. documents.un.org/doc/undoc/ge...

Major Somalia strikes update. Our data now has a fully accounted for and confirmed strike count for Jan 2026 and to date. 26 strikes in Jan and 28 to date. This includes two strikes w/o press release (1/20 and 1/26) and clarification of all multiple strikes. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

The escalation of the US air campaign in Somalia is probably the most underreported national security story right now👇

US military averaged just under one air strike per day in Somalia in the first month of 2026. The highest or second-highest monthly Somalia strike numbers ever, rivaled only by Dec 2025. 2025, the highest year for Somalia strikes yet, had 140+ strikes (10-15 most months).

Funny, notwithstanding the dramatic increase in airstrikes under Trump 2.0, there's not much discussion of Somalia in the National Security Strategy.

Major Somalia strikes update. Our data now has a fully accounted for and confirmed strike count for Jan 2026 and to date. 26 strikes in Jan and 28 to date. This includes two strikes w/o press release (1/20 and 1/26) and clarification of all multiple strikes. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

Post Maduro op drug boat strikes raise significant qs for the thesis that they were just a pressure tool for VZ coercion/regime change. Could still be coercive but at least raises qs.

Post Maduro op drug boat strikes raise significant qs for the thesis that they were just a pressure tool for VZ coercion/regime change. Could still be coercive but at least raises qs.

Overuse of sanctions, such as in the case of ICC, is undermining the efficacy of US unilateral sanctions www.nytimes.com/2026/01/10/w...

Find way people talk about various DHS reforms quite odd. The key leverage point one should be looking to now is not in the agency. It is how reforms can be further leveraged by observers, protesters, others to further build power. And I see many ways common discussed moves could be used thusly

Truly shameful what this admin and Congress has done on this issue. Signs Trump wouldn’t care go back a long time eg: the inclusion of Iraq in the initial travel ban list, but still find it viscerally shocking - especially the spinelessness of Congress. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/u...

Killing the CIA World Factbook might seem like small potatoes, but it was a touchstone of curated facts in a sea of disinformation.

More strikes in Syria. www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-...

Man, the second Trump-era has just been truly awful for this city.

Two older reports from our proxy war series that are interesting to reread in this moment. 1) Alex Vatanka on tensions and weaknesses in IRGC strategy. www.newamerica.org/future-secur... 2) Alexandra Stark on tensions, shifts in Gulf State proxy war strategies. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

This is unambiguous, textbook anti-Semitism.

I missed this on my initial read but AFRICOM’s deputy commander seems to be saying Mumin is the global ISIS caliph. I would sure like to hear whether the broader IC agrees with that assessment. www.foxnews.com/world/rising...

I missed this on my initial read but AFRICOM’s deputy commander seems to be saying Mumin is the global ISIS caliph. I would sure like to hear whether the broader IC agrees with that assessment. www.foxnews.com/world/rising...

A lot of people cannot just start a paid newsletter or become freelancers to sustain their careers. The sports, metro, and international desks did work that requires *team* resources, like legal checks, documents, access to archives, and long-term beat experience.

Two weeks after the strike(s) in question AFRICOM issues a press release for strike(s) on 1/21-1/22 that helps partly fill in the difference between their total strike count and individualized tracking. www.africom.mil/pressrelease...

Two weeks after the strike(s) in question AFRICOM issues a press release for strike(s) on 1/21-1/22 that helps partly fill in the difference between their total strike count and individualized tracking. www.africom.mil/pressrelease...

Excited to share the cover of my forthcoming book, The Arms Control Paradox, out with @stanfordpress.bsky.social in Sept 2026. It examines why #armscontrol works when it manages uncertainty—and why that task has become harder. #InternationalRelations #DecisionTheory

This capability was absolutely critical for my effort to trace some of the origins, historical uses, and complexities of the concept of “endless war” Really alarming it seems to no longer exist.

I don't mean to seem alarmed, but it appears Google's book search function is, just...gone. In a sane country it would be a huge deal, front page news, that a privately owned utility that millions researches, from journalists to scholars, rely on every day to advance knowledge can just disappear.

I’d say AFRICOM’s presentation of the logic behind its escalation in these FOX interviews lines up pretty well with the factors I noted in my CTC piece below. Still think this lacks a lot of specificity and are big qs. www.foxnews.com/world/rising...

Semafor cites our New America Somalia strike data. Also touches on one of the major issues I’ve been emphasizing: the halt in the provision of casualty/battle damage assessments. www.semafor.com/article/02/0...

Anyways, I think we generally still don't appreciate the CRM as one of the greatest set of strategists in human history.

This is going to be an event you won’t want to miss. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

Recalling the days not that long ago when folks still assumed ‘with support from international partners’ in a Somali gov press release could only mean a U.S. strike. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Not an unexpected dynamic given prior history of back and forth on this front. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

NEWS: Judge Biery has ordered the release of 5-year-old Liam Ramos. A thunderous rebuke against ICE’s violent campaign in Minnesota. Read the order below. Link: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

This is going to be an event you won’t want to miss. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

Bovino Is Said to Have Mocked Prosecutor’s Jewish Faith on Call With Lawyers www.nytimes.com/2026/01/31/u...

This strikes me as a particularly important story even in a context of important stories on the larger crisis. apnews.com/article/immi...

Tend to think ceasefire doesn’t have a meaning outside of the specific agreements (themselves politically constructed) of a specific cease fire and a lot of discussion is ahistorical about other cases of ceasefire and existence of ongoing fire/wars even amidst it.

“.. It was laughable, if there was something to laugh about,” said one of the nurses .. “There was no way this person ran headfirst into a wall.” @apnews.com apnews.com/article/immi...

Oh our Minneapolis, I hear your voice Singing through the bloody mist We’ll take our stand for this land And the stranger in our midst Directed by Thom Zimny Edited by Thom Zimny and Samuel Shapiro Production Footage: Pam Springsteen and Thom Zimny

Significant move from the EU given both prior splits on prior designations and the relative newness of using these tools against state orgs. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/w...

APNewsAlert: BRUSSELS (AP) — European Union’s top diplomat says bloc likely to agree on sanctioning #Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.