Professor @jrovner.bsky.social examines what history can tell us about the trajectory of US-China relations in this new piece published in @foreignaffairs.com. Read it here: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/real-thucydides-trap

The United States and China each believe that they can use new technologies to overcome the other’s advantages—and “the more they indulge this prewar hope, the more likely they are to find themselves in a protracted conflict,” writes Joshua Rovner.

In @foreignaffairs.com I write about how short wars become long ones. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

DC friends, @ldfreedman.bsky.social, Mara Karlin, Michael O'Hanlon, and I will be talking strategy at The Brookings Institution on March 24. Lots to discuss... www.brookings.edu/events/us-st...

Trump's peactime grand strategy favors flexibility over principle. But this is a recipe for strategic confusion in war. Re-upping a piece from last year: warontherocks.com/2025/01/star...

Some thoughts in @warontherocks.bsky.social on Trump's grand strategy after Iran warontherocks.com/2026/03/what...

Are those holiday gift cards already burning a hole in your pocket? Invest in something that lasts longer than the season. The TNSR winter issue, featuring our newly redesigned logo, is now available in print. Order your copy now from @utexaspress.bsky.social! utpress.utexas.edu/journals/tex...

China is undergoing major changes in how it thinks about nuclear weapons, as indicated in the just released China Military Power Report. 2 developments stand out. media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/...

Can autonomous weapons make war less brutal? Instead of viewing autonomy solely as a risk, Nathan Wood (@woodnathang.bsky.social) posits that these systems—when used within the correct parameters—offer a pathway to more discriminate and legally compliant warfare. tnsr.org/2025/12/bomb...

What is sabotage and how is it a form of statecraft in world politics? A new article co-authored by @jrovner.bsky.social in @ejisbisa.bsky.social explores this concept, which has important implications for understanding contemporary security challenges. Read more: www.american.edu/sis/research...

How did warfare evolve in the "greater Middle East" during the Cold War? Carter Malkasian from the National War College argues this period saw a "democratization of violence"—guerrilla warfare & terrorism—that complicated state authority.

@jrovner.bsky.social, @rorycormac.bsky.social, and @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social's new article is a super read on an important but neglected area of covert action: www.cambridge.org/core/service...

What is sabotage? How does it work as a tool of statecraft? And what are its limits? Check out my new article with @rorycormac.bsky.social and @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social. Open access

Concerns about the presumption of regularity also impact national security policy. Re-upping a piece from the first Trump administration: warontherocks.com/2020/04/an-a...

#OpenAccess from @ejisbisa.bsky.social - Sand in the gears: Sabotage in world politics - https://cup.org/4o2MQBc - @jrovner.bsky.social, @rorycormac.bsky.social & @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social#OpenAccess #FirstView

Delighted to talk about Strategy and Grand Strategy with Aaron Maclean on his excellent School of War podcast. Check it out! www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZZD...

Our latest roundtable examines the rapidly evolving global nuclear order. From North Korea to NATO, China to Latin America, this collection of essays explores the domestic and international forces reshaping nuclear security. Full roundtable: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

Strategy and Grand Strategy beyond war and peace. Bradley Dickey from the Cambridge Centre for Pandemic Risk uses the book to understand the response to covid-19 - and to think about the broader questions surrounding health security. www.crassh.cam.ac.uk/blog/strateg...

I joined @nktpnd.bsky.social on his @warontherocks.bsky.social podcast “Thinking the Unthinkable” to talk about my new book: The Art of Coercion. And here’s the book (the ebook is free!): www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

Good news! You can now download the open access (free) ebook of Age of Decption from @CornellPress ! (You can also buy a paperback, which makes a fine decoration for your bookshelf) www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

Should the US release secret intelligence for strategic gain? A roundtable debate in @h-diplo.bsky.social with Melissa Graves, David Gioe, @mindyhaas.bsky.social and me: issforum.org/roundtables/...

New collection of essays and interviews on European security. Includes my thoughts on strategy and grand strategy. human-magazin.de/wp-content/u...

Teaching about 9/11, then and now. My thoughts @usatoday.com

I have some thoughts for USA Today on teaching abut 9/11, then and now www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...

At the start of WWI, Britain allowed the trade of machine guns to Germany but banned the trade of carriages for them. Why? On our podcast Mariya Grinberg discusses her book, "Trade in War," and why adversaries often continue to trade even while fighting @mitpolisci.bsky.social @ssp-mit.bsky.social

Article on sabotage accepted for publication in @ejisbisa.bsky.social authored with @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social and @jrovner.bsky.social calls for a celebratory Dartmoor whisky Sabotage weaponises friction to degrade; subversion actively generates change 2 distinct logics in “grey zone” statecraft

A study of nearly 2,000 military and civilian officials reveals that even the most experienced experts are susceptible to cognitive biases that can have significant implications for international stability. Read Jeffrey Friedman's article on this topic on the TNSR website. tnsr.org/2025/09/the-...

1/2 Putin's long war in Ukraine has reduced Russia's influence abroad, writes @hannanotte.bsky.social. Put another way, its wartime strategy is working against its broader grand strategy. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...

New tenure-track position in international security tinyurl.com/5dsuwcvm

If you have used TNSR resources in the past, please take a few minutes to fill out this survey. The first 100 respondents will receive a FREE COPY of our next print edition! coda.io/form/Texas-N...

Claire Vergerio penned a response to the roundtable we published on her book earlier this year. In it she notes how historians of international relations tend to differ with legal scholars on their assessment of her book's contemporary relevance.

Is Taiwan the indispensable military fortress it's often claimed to be? In our latest "Horns of a Dilemma" episode, Jonathan Caverley (@jcaverley.bsky.social) of the U.S. Naval War College presents a compelling analysis based on his TNSR article. youtu.be/6p-SJt6q5Es

Is war ever really worth it? SIS professor Joshua Rovner (@jrovner.bsky.social) & other experts gave their unique analysis on this topic in a new piece published in @inkstickmedia.com as part of a collaboration with the Stimson Center. inkstickmedia.com/is-war-ever-...

1/2 Is war worth it? Some thoughts here, in a roundtable for @stimsoncenter.bsky.social with Chis Preble, @speechboy71.bsky.social, Paul Fritz, and Chijioke Onuchukwu inkstickmedia.com/is-war-ever-...

Nice to see Fixing the Facts in the Cornell UP backlist blog, though I wish there were fewer stories of politicization in the news... www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/fixing-the-f...

From the current issue of @tnsr.org: Anderson and Press on war and escalation in Korea, @jcaverley.bsky.social on Chinese control of Taiwan, @richardmaass.bsky.social on legal deterrence, Lonergan and Snyder on military culture, and Herb Lin on AI and nuclear weapons tnsr.org/latest-print...

I wrote a primer on the technical and political problems of bomb damage assessment for @theconversation.com theconversation.com/what-damage-...

1/2 Ignoring the intelligence community on Iran is a strategic mistake, as I argue in @warontherocks.bsky.social. It removes an important voice from the policy process, and it reduces US diplomatic leverage over friends and foes. warontherocks.com/2025/06/inte...

Short thread on Iran’s potential threat to Strait of Hormuz, subject of much recent attention. 1/4 www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/u...

My latest in @warontherocks.bsky.social

Is North Korea's artillery a paper tiger? The latest TNSR article challenges the conventional wisdom on the threat to Seoul. tnsr.org/2025/06/lost...

For those who didn't know Owen Coté, this roundtable is a good place to start. A must read for students of nuclear weapons, naval power, and security studies in general. issforum.org/tribute/h-di...

Will the U.S. intelligence community be politicized? Our team does "A Good Chat" about the Trump administration’s Tren de Aragua assessment. Read the latest from @claryc.bsky.social and Joshua Rovner: goodauthority.org/news/will-th...

I spoke with @claryc.bsky.social at @goodauth.bsky.social about intelligence and politicization: goodauthority.org/news/will-th...

Delighted to welcome @polinabeliakova.bsky.social and Suzanne Freeman to @ausis.bsky.social www.american.edu/sis/news/202...

⁉️ What does the UK public think about GCHQ, MI5, MI6/SIS? Do they trust them? 🆕️ In this new Intelligence & National Security article, we study 🇬🇧 public trust and knowledge in detail. 📊 The results make interesting reading. If you're interested, link here ⏬️ 🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Who really has the right to wage war? Claire Vergerio's "War, States, and International Order" challenges the long-held assumption that this right belongs exclusively to states. Hendrik Simon's (@hendrikpsimon.bsky.social) full review of this book is on our website! tnsr.org/roundtable/b...

A few more days to apply to join @bridgingthegap.bsky.social at our New Era Workshop for PhD students in international affairs!

Elizabeth Grimm provides a thoughtful review of Claire Vergerio’s "War, States, and the International Order." She praises Vergerio's work and questions how we might move beyond traditional narratives to include diverse perspectives. Read the full review here: tnsr.org/roundtable/b...

Very pleased that @tnsr.org has published my article on the US-Soviet Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START I, 1982-1991). It shows how the US & USSR both used the theoretically cooperative arms control concept of strategic stability to defend their own START position and attack that of the other.🧵