“Even if a regime change operation succeeds at first, history again shows that long-term outcomes are often disappointing,” write Alexander Downes and Lindsey O’Rourke.

hey fellow authors, I received my Anthropic copyright settlement materials in the mail today. I thought I'd filed a claim already, but it turns out I needed to do so again. Might be worth double-checking or filing a new claim, just to be sure You can do so here: www.anthropiccopyrightsettlement.com

Returning today from some European events on transatlantic relations. No doubt the colleagues I met are revising their priors further. All such documents are tools of domestic as much as international politics. This one seems almost entirely aimed at the former. www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...

This is dead right. Elites in China, India, the US and elsewhere took Huntington’s naive essentialism and turned it into an instruction manual for mobilization. academic.oup.com/edited-volum...

Indeed: Huntington was an early warning sign of how, amidst skyrocketing inequality, a small coterie of unpatriotic super elites would seek to tear down state structures while shouting racist narratives of blood and soil into the media that they control

In our new (open access!) Survival article, Ethan Kapstein and I argue Europe’s rapid rearmament and US focus elsewhere are enabling a more effective and sustainable transatlantic partnership...if its members are willing to acknowledge and maintain it. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

would be bonkers if a bunch of rocket scientists had to leave the US for Europe because of fascism.

“No more foreign wars,” as the monkey’s paw curls shut.

The black box of academic publishing is dark inside indeed - and I've not even mentioned Manucript Central yet - but it also contains other academics doing their best as editors to steward your work with care and respect.

My short overview for @navalnews.com on the major news broken overnight in Japanese media that Australia now wants to acquire Upgraded Mogami aka 06FFM for the RAN under SEA 3000. As noted, no official statement by Canberra yet. www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

This. The political economy of American higher education is deeply misunderstood even by most of the people within it. This is shocking considering the stakes involved as well as US elites' obsession with it.

People: World Cup can't happen now FIFA will pull out football fans: FIFA will just do corruption People: who even understands how to be corrupt well enough to navigate this situation? FIFA: www.insideworldfootball.com/2025/07/08/f...

Great footage, highly recommended watch for naval infrastructure enthusiasts. Note also the completely stripped down and cut open Type 209 boat. Something you don't see often in such footage.

This is Sirens, brought to you by the Ladies of Bombshell. In Ep 1, our hosts talk about why they are launching a new podcast, reveal what horrible things they have discovered at the bottom of their work bags, and talk about issues that may lure men to their death. sites.libsyn.com/92063/bonds-...

Star Trek - TMP: How is it that between Earth and the Klingon Empire -- the Federation's pacing threat -- Starfleet has one starship in drydock and that's it? Where's the rest of the fleet? Who are they assigned to? Oh, wait...

Automatic follow given the endorser.

No one in the world more qualified than my colleague @lindsaypcohn.bsky.social to discuss the ramifications of the military in LA.

In addition to the other excellent suggestions, I would start with CRS's Rob O'Rourke's devastating testimony here: armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfile...

cc: @jcaverley.bsky.social

As someone accustomed to seeing charts with missile range rings emanating from “bad guys’” territory, I was unprepared for how unsettling I found this graphic in the excellent new report from IISS. I understand the importance of Europe arming but am also saddened by it. www.iiss.org/research-pap...

Foreign military sales are under the microscope. What should change? warontherocks.com/20...

[Analysis] #EUDefence: A transatlantic #Defense industrial base? Two contrasting views, by @jcaverley.bsky.social, Ethan B. Kapstein, @elietenenbaum.bsky.social and @leoperiapeigne.bsky.social | @ifri.bsky.social

For federal workers who have been laid off:

Some exciting news from @economist.com. All American service members—all 1.3m active duty, and those retired—now have free access to The Economist's website, thanks to a deal with DoD. If I'm not mistaken, you can access it through DoD's library pages: www.dodmwrlibraries.org. Happy reading.

The ISA International Security Studies Section still seeks Emerging Scholar Award nominations (<45 years old or <15 years from PhD). Nominating's easy, & receiving the award has real impact at an important career stage. Consider sending a name in by this Friday! www.isanet.org/Programs/Awa...

I argue in Foreign Affairs (ungated!) that while there are many reasons to defend Taiwan, the island's military value for China is not one of them. 🌐 www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwa...

In a coin flip election, if it's dangerous to be the last billionaire to endorse one potential winner but makes relatively little difference whether or not you endorsed the other, your dominant strategy is pretty clear. 🌐

Colleagues! Just over a week to the submission deadline. It's a great small conference with well-attended panels on topics across security studies with a wide variety of scholars at all levels of their career and from all parts of the globe. In a great city to boot! 🌐 www.isanet.org/Conferences/...

Yanna Krupnikov and I have an article out in the APSR! Bottom line: women generally have a harder time than men changing the public's mind about security. And while the public credits both men and women veterans with higher leadership, it doesn't listen to them on security either. 🌐 t.co/LtkjIkKyKO

Colleagues in security studies: this is your last day to vote in the ISA ⁦‪@ISSS_ISA‬⁩ governing council election. Please make your voice heard as we choose the scholars who will shape the future of our large and diverse subfield. Thank you! www.isanet.org/ISA/Sections...

Members of the International Security Studies Section of ISA! Please nominate yourself for the Governing Council election by Jan 14! The Council helps shape the subfield, and we are a fun bunch to boot. In particular, one seat is reserved specifically for graduate students. Awkward link below! 🌐

Pentagon Quad Charts are of the devil, but I love 2x2 tables and so should you. Jennifer Kavanagh, Ethan Kapstein, and I use one to organize the defense industrial base for @warontherocks.bsky.social, suggesting how to manage these very different sectors. 🌐 warontherocks.com/2023/11/one-...

The ISA Int'l Security Studies Section is holding mentoring workshops for early career women and scholars of color, organized by the section's diversity task force. Sign up info is here, with a November 25 deadline polisky conflictsky intsec form.jotform.com/233116765088...

This is a neat, well-produced four minutes of me railing about the United States' and Europe's defense industrial struggles. Shows the value of an editor in any medium!

Gonna start donating $8/mo

Honestly, I should have been donating to Wikipedia years ago. Still the second best time to plant a tree is when Elon Musk thinks something is not worthwhile.

I do not understand the rush. Presumably Hamas expected Israeli retaliation and has planned accordingly. Every extra day the IDF prepares likely changes the operational balance in its favor. It also allows diplomacy to minimize regional escalation, and public steps to minimize civilian casualties.

Extended remix version of my @goodauth.bsky.social piece on what’s next for Gaza and Israel, with a bunch of reading suggestions. abuaardvark.substack.com/p/gaza-and-i...

Please welcome @nicjenne.bsky.social to polisky and CivMilSky!!!

My latest for Inkstick Media - We nuke types love to cite Carol Cohn, but we don't use her methods!

This meal just cost me $78 at Newark Airport. This is why Americans think the economy is terrible.

Was interviewed for CNN on munitions and Ukraine. It's part of a well-researched article with lots of data on the magnitude of European states' supply challenges. For more detail, please check out my War on the Rocks piece with Ethan Kapstein #armstrade #IntSec: warontherocks.com/2023/08/comm...

Elon Musk is a problematic figure with a complicated relationship on US national security policy, but this CNN profile actually made me sympathize with him a bit. I am not sure I would know what to do if thrust into such an unprecedented position. www.cnn.com/2023/09/07/p...

Polisky: Nominate a colleague or yourself for International Security Studies Section (ISA) awards by Sept. 15. Please send in your nominations for best article, best graduate student paper, best book, and emerging scholar awards. Again, self-nominations are encouraged! www.isanet.org/Programs/Awa...

APSA is convening a fact-finding commission about decision-making surrounding the 2023 Annual Meeting and the UNITE HERE Local 11 labor action. This commission should also address the fact that APSA eliminated on-site childcare without surveying members or even notifying them of the proposed change.

International Journal has ungated my article on AUKUS and how naval procurement shapes grand strategy. It's a short exploration of goods exchanged in arms deals--weapons, money, tech, jobs, security and autonomy--and the long-term effects for Australia. journals.sagepub.com/eprint/9QFSY...

I recently saw an academic (no need to name & drag for these purposes) complain that academics use bluesky for the self-promotional purpose of... linking to their own newly-published articles. Let me throw in my voice & vote on the other side. One of the things I really value about social media 1/

ALWAYS email the author if your library doesn’t subscribe to the journal. They’ll be so thrilled that someone wants to read their work that they’ll probably send you 17 other articles ‘that you might be interested in’ too. #AcademicSky