@sumsung.bsky.social has a big problem. And it's not just about chips. AI is booming. Profits are soaring. But one question is getting louder: who gets the money? A strike threat has been rattling Samsung for months, quietly holding global chip supply hostage. My latest KTTW piece unpacks it all.👇

I was very happy to be asked to go on the latest edition of @trade--talks.bsky.social podcast with the fantastic @chadpbown.com We got into the weeds of "Europe's trade war with China", from EV tariffs & rare earths to inverters and industrial accelerator Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/1udo...

“Defeat for the United States, therefore, is not only possible but likely. Here is what defeat looks like.” This is quite something coming from Robert Kagan www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

What did Taiwan actually think of the Cheng-Xi meeting? This week, @poscwty1.bsky.social & I have three reports at @brookings.edu analyzing new survey data on how Taiwan saw the meeting, 92 Consensus, defense spending, Trump, the US, and more. Here is piece #1: www.brookings.edu/articles/how...

I was honored to be invited to give the annual Griffith and Patricia Way lecture at the Center for Japanese Studies at the University of Washington. I am happy to share the prepared text of my remarks. Useful opportunity to pull some thoughts together. observingjapan.substack.com/p/takaichi-m...

You can try being a monetary policy maker: www.frbsf.org/research-and...

Are Bessent's proposed swap lines with Gulf and Asian states an indication that the dollar has become what Susan Strange--the OG theorist of the geoeconomics of international currencies--called a "Negotiated Currency"? A short 🧵(1/10)

Have fixed some typos in this. Still up at same link: fallows.substack.com/p/your-score...

At the recent Two Sessions, China outlined its goals and strategies for the next 5 years. Read key takeaways from @neilthomas123.bsky.social, Christopher Johnson, Guoguang Wu, Lyle Morris, Lizzi C. Lee, @hotpotwhynot.bsky.social & @lishuoclimate.bsky.social👇

Tillis says he thinks Warsh is well qualified to be Fed chair but isn’t backing down: “It is unfortunate that an ongoing investigation prevents me from voting for Kevin at this time.”

I was in a 2 hour briefing today on the Iran War. All the briefings are closed, because Trump can't defend this war in public. I obviously can't disclose classified info, but you deserve to know how incoherent and incomplete these war plans are. 1/ Here's what I can share:

China probably hopes that the US again becomes bogged down in a long conflict with Iran, but its strategic plans are usually not based on hope. 1/7

Also, I should have shared this earlier but I recorded a great conversation with Ian Buruma and Chang Che about Takaichi: changche.substack.com/p/into-asia-...

Without Trump’s trade wars since 2017, US exports to China would have been nearly 60 percent higher in 2025, or roughly $90 billion annually. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

@rajakorman.bsky.social , has this been done already?

Trump-Kennedy Center announces new resident orchestra: Stochastic Violins.

China is pressing Germany to support the idea of a free trade agreement between the EU and China when Chancellor Friedrich Merz makes his first visit to Beijing next week. See my latest Substack on the visit below... nbarkin.substack.com/p/china-floa...

The grandson of the inventor of Reese's Peanut Butter Cups is calling out Hershey for "quietly replacing" the candy's chocolate and peanut butter ingredients

Lionel Richie just appeared on #China’s New Year TV gala with Jackie Chan and a choir of kids to sing a version of “We Are The World” in English and Chinese.

Takaichi’s LDP on course for crushing victory in Japan’s elections. China’s coercive pressure campaign against her has clearly backfired giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

My 2026 Japanese general election thread starts here. We're now less than a half hour to polls closing.

FREE FOR ALL READERS: Japan is pummeled by snow and plunging temperatures as the campaign enters its final day. Candidates support higher defense spending but there is little consensus on how to fund it. Plus, politicians react to Trump’s endorsement of Takaichi. open.substack.com/pub/observin...

Some terrifically titled papers from a discovered collection of NASA research documents found in a skip (with thanks to @juliarez.placid.horse)

An experiment: A wonkish post that isn't emailed out to subscribers paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-wonkish-...

I fought in Afghanistan as a Marine. Danes were in Helmand before Marines were. 43 Danes gave the last full measure of devotion because the U.S. asked and we had been attacked. I’m ashamed this man is the commander in chief. This isn’t how you treat friends who bled with you.

I have revered Zha Jianying since I first read China Pop in the late 90s and it was was the greatest to work with her + @goldkorn.bsky.social on her part-memoir, part polemical lament, "Trains." Here's a short interview we did about the project.

Just came across this ad on another Website and, well... @carlquintanilla.bsky.social @ivanthek.bsky.social

📣📣📣Announcing...Chalkboard Politics @chalkboardpolitics.bsky.social, a podcast by students, for students (and their teachers). Written, edited, and mixed by the students at @siwpscolumbia.bsky.social and distributed by @goodauth.bsky.social. 1/ www.podbean.com/media/share/...

For some reason, very few people these days will stand up and say it, but: the US federal bureaucracy is one of the great wonders of the world, staffed with incredibly diligent people who do their jobs well and care deeply. Trump's destruction of the federal apparaus was a historic crime.

[1/6] A reminder: Europe has cards to use against the US. Lots of them. To cite some examples: - Tighten screws on US digital giants (taxes, fines, even bans) - Export taxes disrupting US supply chains eg pharma - Exclude US firms from European procurement, inc defence ecfr.eu/publication/...

“Don’t let trash score on our city!” New York Knicks legend John Starks recorded PSAs to remind riders that courtesy counts! Listen for his announcements on your next subway ride.

China's record $1.2 trillion goods trade surplus reflects the remarkable strength of its manufacturing sector, but also the weakness of household consumption. In a new article for @econofact.bsky.social, @houzesong.bsky.social examine the issues and the outlook. Link: econofact.org/chinas-expor...

Sentiment check: r/wallstreetbets is absolutely libbing out, indistinguishable from Bsky.

Alex Manzara, rates analyst at RJ O’Brien calls the fed criminal probe “asinine.” “Anyone with a shred of self-respect currently under consideration to take over as Fed Chair should quietly remove themselves from the running.” I guess I’m not sure the candidates have many shreds left.

Some scattered, occasionally NSFW thoughts. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/what-i-kno...

Here is a link to my latest about this weekend’s events. Longtime followers will recognize the themes in the below shots also link back to about a decade’s worth of venting about drivers of the dollar and LatAm Political Economy. responsiblestatecraft.org/venezuela-oil/

New piece in @goodauth.bsky.social on what Trump's actions in Venezuela might mean. goodauthority.org/news/what-ha...

This brings the number of CFIUS blocks to 11. 1. - Mamco/Catic (China) 1990 2. Ralls (China) 2012 3. Aixtron/GrandChip (China) 2016 4. Lattice/CanyonBridge (China) 2017 5. Qualcomm/Broadcom (Singapore) 2018 6. StayNTouch/Shiji (China) 2020 7. Musical.ly/TikTok (China) 2020 *not enforced*

NYC has an excellent tool to see how recently any street has been plowed. Check out PlowNYC at: plownyc.cityofnewyork.us/plownyc/ Thank you to the 1000s of hard working men and women at @nycsanitation.bsky.social who are out battling this storm tonight.

Year 1 data on congestion pricing in Manhattan… * Vehicle traffic: -11% * Foot traffic: +3.4% * Storefront vacancy: -0.9% * Pollution: -22% * Revenue for mass transit: $548M So YES this has been a huge success.

One key battleground we should all keep our eyes very peeled on is Hungary's election in April 2026. PM Viktor Orban is in the balance. If the US's National Security Strategy is now USG policy, we should surely expect some MAGA involvement to help tilt the race in Orban's favour

The statue that FIFA just gifted to Trump is Tolkienesque nightmare fuel. It will make a great paperweight.

This thread is the Triple Lindy of @rajakorman.bsky.social financial punning.

A downturn in the AI sector wouldn’t just hit markets. It could also alter the strategic balance with China and Taiwan.

ICYMI, I hijacked the discourse to make one of my long-standing favorite points. The screen-shoot is from a WSJ op-ed by the Treasury Secretary doing before your very eyes EXACTLY (and with his customary insouciance) exactly what I complain about.

ICE vs the clergy

Imagine being told in 1987 that this headline would exist in 2025