For some reason, very few people these days will stand up and say it, but: the US federal bureaucracy is one of the great wonders of the world, staffed with incredibly diligent people who do their jobs well and care deeply. Trump's destruction of the federal apparaus was a historic crime.

[1/6] A reminder: Europe has cards to use against the US. Lots of them. To cite some examples: - Tighten screws on US digital giants (taxes, fines, even bans) - Export taxes disrupting US supply chains eg pharma - Exclude US firms from European procurement, inc defence ecfr.eu/publication/...

“Don’t let trash score on our city!” New York Knicks legend John Starks recorded PSAs to remind riders that courtesy counts! Listen for his announcements on your next subway ride.

China's record $1.2 trillion goods trade surplus reflects the remarkable strength of its manufacturing sector, but also the weakness of household consumption. In a new article for @econofact.bsky.social, @houzesong.bsky.social examine the issues and the outlook. Link: econofact.org/chinas-expor...

Sentiment check: r/wallstreetbets is absolutely libbing out, indistinguishable from Bsky.

Alex Manzara, rates analyst at RJ O’Brien calls the fed criminal probe “asinine.” “Anyone with a shred of self-respect currently under consideration to take over as Fed Chair should quietly remove themselves from the running.” I guess I’m not sure the candidates have many shreds left.

Some scattered, occasionally NSFW thoughts. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/what-i-kno...

Here is a link to my latest about this weekend’s events. Longtime followers will recognize the themes in the below shots also link back to about a decade’s worth of venting about drivers of the dollar and LatAm Political Economy. responsiblestatecraft.org/venezuela-oil/

New piece in @goodauth.bsky.social on what Trump's actions in Venezuela might mean. goodauthority.org/news/what-ha...

This brings the number of CFIUS blocks to 11. 1. - Mamco/Catic (China) 1990 2. Ralls (China) 2012 3. Aixtron/GrandChip (China) 2016 4. Lattice/CanyonBridge (China) 2017 5. Qualcomm/Broadcom (Singapore) 2018 6. StayNTouch/Shiji (China) 2020 7. Musical.ly/TikTok (China) 2020 *not enforced*

NYC has an excellent tool to see how recently any street has been plowed. Check out PlowNYC at: plownyc.cityofnewyork.us/plownyc/ Thank you to the 1000s of hard working men and women at @nycsanitation.bsky.social who are out battling this storm tonight.

Year 1 data on congestion pricing in Manhattan… * Vehicle traffic: -11% * Foot traffic: +3.4% * Storefront vacancy: -0.9% * Pollution: -22% * Revenue for mass transit: $548M So YES this has been a huge success.

It is boorish and unflattering to say I told you so, and yet at a certain point honesty does require it every now and then

One key battleground we should all keep our eyes very peeled on is Hungary's election in April 2026. PM Viktor Orban is in the balance. If the US's National Security Strategy is now USG policy, we should surely expect some MAGA involvement to help tilt the race in Orban's favour

The statue that FIFA just gifted to Trump is Tolkienesque nightmare fuel. It will make a great paperweight.

This thread is the Triple Lindy of @rajakorman.bsky.social financial punning.

A downturn in the AI sector wouldn’t just hit markets. It could also alter the strategic balance with China and Taiwan.

ICYMI, I hijacked the discourse to make one of my long-standing favorite points. The screen-shoot is from a WSJ op-ed by the Treasury Secretary doing before your very eyes EXACTLY (and with his customary insouciance) exactly what I complain about.

ICE vs the clergy

Imagine being told in 1987 that this headline would exist in 2025

My view on the mediocre real economy ROI of the Hyperscaler CAPEX inspired a lot of conversation this week across socials, so I'm opening it up to all as my free post of the week: bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-ai-boo...

AI sitcom accidentally a Lynchian fever dream. The sort of general malaise that only the genius possess and insane lament.

Interested in what China’s next Five-Year Plan means for the economy and China’s global role? Tune in to this @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org discussion tomorrow (Wednesday).

FREE FRIDAY: I discuss the emerging deal between the LDP and Ishin no Kai, which is not without critics but which leaves Takaichi all but assured of winning the premiership. Plus, I look back at the late Murayama Tomiichi’s unlikely but meaningful premiership. open.substack.com/pub/observin...

Today, we're celebrating 1 billion rides taken on the subway thus far in 2025! As always, thanks for riding with us 🚇 🎊

I'm hoping that the "No Kings" rally this weekend has so many American flags flying it looks like the Fourth of July.

In June 1983, Xi Zhongxun, the father of Xi Jinping, hosted Kim Jong-il, the father of Kim Jong-un, in Beijing. They watched a performance by Peng Liyuan, who years later would marry Xi Jinping.

I threw everything in here—the dollar, bonds, the future of the defense umbrella, the insistence on centrality, stablecoin, why centrality is not always strength, the evolution of US & global (r,g ) dynamics, and a shoutout to Steven Solomon. But no dad jokes alas.

Financial literacy course should probably include a section on "spending $65k on some weird scam."

It's not until Sept 11, 1945 that you can detect a shift in tone. Why? That's the date when the the arrests of suspected war criminals began. This marked a turning point for Japanese newspapers, whose rhetoric underwent a noticeable transformation as they adapted to the postwar environment.

Fun to work with Jon Czin on this for Foreign Affairs: "The moves demonstrate his continued dissatisfaction with the PLA’s high command and can be seen as part of an ongoing process of achieving his larger goals of bending the military to his will." x.com/BrookingsFP/...

A sweet old lady wrote me to ask if I would help her out by signing off Jeopardy! every night saying "Don't forget your night medicine, my friends." I am actively considering this.

For those who are interested, I am posting longer-form notes on Substack, providing a little more background to the reporting in my SCMP stories. Latest one here. substack.com/@finbarrberm...

Karvansaray restoran; Goychay, Azerbaijan https://www.google.com/maps/search/?api=1&query=40.651588%2C47.743297&query_place_id=ChIJr3CzStQFOUAR8B7jzdHX7Vg

Wang Yi told Kaja Kallas that China cannot afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine, otherwise the US will divert its full focus to Beijing.

"Chinese firms in strategic sectors – including carmaking and AI – increasingly face overseas expansion hurdles put in place by Beijing, which is tightening up on approvals due to fears that key tech could be transferred out of the country" www.scmp.com/economy/chin...

7/The case opens up a new line of argument against US sanctions/economic coercion. The court argues that the US can only use coercion to directly address the emergency and not to gain leverage over the target. This strategy underpins many of Trump's moves. www.cit.uscourts.gov/sites/cit/fi...

“Fifty years from now, you will want to be able to look in the mirror and know that you did what you thought was right, in every part of your life. At the end of the day, your integrity is all you have.” Jay Powell www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Join @paulblustein.bsky.social and me —coming up on 90 minutes!

New tariff update today from @budgetlab.bsky.social incorporating 1. Today's announcement of lower US-China tariffs (10% instead of 125% reciprocal tariffs); 2. The May 8 US-UK trade deal; and, 3. The April 29 auto tariff rebate announcement. Some high level takeaways: 1/13

Full text of US-UK "deal" confirms: 1. *Not* a "free trade" deal. 2. For UK, largely successful damage limitation: limiting US tariffs on cars/steel for not very much. But damage still done. 3. For Trump, pretty much complete climbdown. (1/3) assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/681d32...

Joseph Torigian's book is a fascinating account of the life of Xi Jinping's father. This interview gives a taste:

The founders of this company had a weird persecution complex with Ben and Jerry's too, noting that "they sneer at us!", & creating a narrative in which the ice cream "elites" were trying to squash them. In reality, B&J's never acknowledged them, & may not even have been aware of their existence

Ororon 8, a giant robot made from 8 local mascots joined together like Voltron. promotes the Fukagawa-Rumoi Expressway in Hokkaido, Japan.

This reads like a quid pro quo. US gets: Argentina cutting ties with PBOC/RMB by canceling the (oft used) swap line. Argentina gets: US commitment to provide dollar credit via Treasury's ESF in the event of a future liquidity crisis 1/

The Self-Inflicted Slump: How Tariffs Are Pushing the U.S. Toward a VTRR—A Voluntary Trade Reset Recession Convergence in forecasts Thanks @delong.social @torstenslok.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/braddelo...

If you ever want to read a book about Revere's ride (as well as the other riders who were part of that night's events) I can't recommend this book enough. It doesn't look like much, but it's a page turner that turns the monochrome, 2-dimensional story we learned in grade school into Technicolor 3-D.