There will be no estimate of the unemployment rate for October. We estimated an increase to 4.7% due to the government shutdown. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Handy cap structure analysis here from outside the industry. Cc: @roqueig.bsky.social @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social @rajakorman.bsky.social

🤔

Interesting that he’s in these Epstein emails. “In 2025, Karp quickly settled with the second Donald Trump administration when Trump made threats against law firms perceived to be associated with his political opponents.[5]”

Another day, another hawkish view form a regional president. Voter in ‘26.

Slick Willie still got it.

Thanks. I hate it.

CN big mad too. Tough week for PM Tak.

ES, GC recovering health.

Jeffrey Epstein to Lawrence Summers (both of whom are very bad people): “i have met some very bad people , none as bad as trump. not one decent cell in his body. so yes- dangerous”

A friend of mine said like 40 years ago that the twist that makes Chinatown a great film is that the revelation that the plot is driven not by money but by perversion.

“Where are the revenues” Semianalysis expects azure revenue to accelerate to 50% YoY by end 2026

Lmao. 🤡

I think this passing shot at Mnuchin may be about altering debt issuance plans and lowering WAM. It’s around the same time.

My takeaway from Bessent's speech at the Treasury Markets conference is that he will continue to try to actively manage the yield curve to keep rates down. He'll do that through buybacks, SLR reform, pushing stablecoins, and, soon, working with a cooperative Fed. He needs a falling deficit, too.

I love this. For Yellen.

🚨FED'S BOSTIC TO RETIRE FEBRUARY 28, 2026, AT END OF CURRENT FIVE-YEAR TERM, ATLANTA FED SAYS

We are fortunate this is restarting before JPow leaves and fed credibility drops to near zero.

US Treasury issuing brand new bigly 10s and 30s today and tomorrow. I expect auctions to go well as Thanksgiving week flattener setups dominate. NB Thanksgiving front-end auctions (2s, 5s and 7s) always treacherous.

‘German Council of Economic Experts’ putting more dismal in the forecast.

Stat o' the day: Euro STOXX Banks (Eurozone banks equity index) is 3.78 std dev above its 50-DMA. Most overbought since July of 1993, and the index is trading at its highest level since the midst of the GFC in 2008. +70% this year in € terms.

Just spent week in Beijing talking to officials, scholars. Their msg: 2nd term Trump=opportunity for China. He’s not ideological, sees Xi as a peer, bungled his trade war and can stare down DC China hawks. But he’s unreliable, so a debate on how to use him. economist.com/internationa...

Building a successful cloud business takes time. But when you get it right, there tend to be increasing returns of scale.

Debt to gdp ~300%. ICOR level around 7. Discussing Ponzi finance w/reporters like it’s the weather. 🚩🚩🚩

The Doordash index citation is proof that the administration is serious about delivering.

In case anyone’s curious, these are estimates from JPM’s econ desk on when major data releases will be published post-shutdown

Not speaking for his caucus.

#Tether is hiring leading gold traders from HSBC Tether has become one of the world's largest holders of #gold and plans to expand in this market -- BBG

Resurgent US dollar carry trade is boosting the value of the greenback against other currencies. #EconSky www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Above the 20day, against firm USD.

It’s the politics version of the old school head coaches that chose to punt rather than go for it on 4th and 1 on the plus side of the field.

Very excited that on November 14 at 2PM EST, I will moderate a webinar on N. American integration featuring Susan Helper, former Chief Economist at Commerce, Arturo Sarukhan, former MX ambassador to US, & Flavio Volpe, head of CA auto parts manuf. assoc. Join Us!! quincyinst.org/events/the-u...

Jeffries moving on to participation trophies stat.

Fed's Musalem: Monetary policy is closer to neutral than modestly restrictive.

i think the point is the cave protects both democrats and republicans from ending the filibuster, which both are afraid of because they are afraid of democracy (they would have to do things they don't want to do)

who hates the democrats more, the people who vote against them or the people who vote for them?

No Dem with a future has voted yes.

Donald Trump’s approval rating has tanked and Republican suffered heavy losses in last week’s elections. There’s never been a better time for Senate Democrats to cave on the ACA extension.

The measure would fund the government through January 31 and provide full-year funding for SNAP and Veterans Affairs, according to Senate sources cited by ABC News

Perfect. 🤌🏻

Hits different coming from a Chinese scientist - he’s a serious person, his first public words in a year.

UPDATE: Justice Jackson temporarily blocks SNAP benefits order to allow appeals court to rule. DOJ asked SCOTUS for a stay as USDA was in the middle of completing its process for making full payments. Jackson's order came a little past 9 p.m. Law Dork: www.lawdork.com/p/trump-admi...

CN reported a sudden decline in exports in Oct. Two stories that match: *The beat down from Xi was worse than we thought. *US Customs have lost through-put.

A UE led economic contraction that is not showing up in UE claims or forward STR market? What if tariff pass through doubled from ~35-70% in the last 30 days, everyone hates it, the soft data is trash, challenger lol, wages carry on at ~3.5%, and UE3 ticks up at .1 per month for a year?

Feel the heat.

Wages are hot up north. A reading not consistent with modestly restrictive rates or self reinforcing employment decline.

‘Modestly restrictive’ rates ain’t what they used to be.

Mainland chinese art cinema, yes.

Sudden fall. Tarriff reduction pushed out activity seems likely.