The US has a budget deficit near 6% of GDP, a trade deficit despite tariffs, a massively negative NIIP, we’re cutting rates despite inflation running above target, and the dollar just fell 10% in a year. We are flirting dangerously close to the Recep Tayyip Erdogan Memorial Neo-Fischerian Fun Zone.

Financing and construction inflation not much easier in surplus economies.

The exhaustive investment-strategy report we discussed is available for all to read on his firm's site:

We had a lengthy discussion on the air about his background and current view that the secular bull market is in a late phase, with valuations and macro conditions presenting a challaneging starting point for forward returns. See and read about it here...

Altria $MO donated to Trump's new ballroom (built over the White House East Wing he demolisted), $PM didn't BAT $BATS $BTI already selling Velo Plus moist pouch so in less need of FDA authorization apnews.com/article/dono...

So annoyed with this. The game has changed, pay the man. No sense wishing it was something else.

A few of those who supported lowering the policy rate at this meeting indicated that the decision was finely balanced or that they could have supported keeping the target range unchanged

If you do this let me copy your homework.

corruption is inflationary

The CN/EM ‘insulation from USD’ model remains the rage. Spreading beyond Poland/Hungry and across central/east Europe this year I’m guessing.

AK, WY, and ND. Oh, and monthly state reports are ending, annual only from Feb ‘26.

Lee joins Bibi, Musk, and … Ronaldo(!?) in receiving demented grandpa’s highest honor.

USDCNY fell below 7.00 yuan to the dollar overnight as China's currency closed at the strongest level versus the greenback in over 2 1/2 years.

Woah. Big news if you’ve followed Santoli forever.

Venezuela, South China Sea, the same permission structure. JP has got the message, commodities too.

USD/JPY has diverged from 10Y interest rate differentials. The yen is trading weaker (and the dollar stronger) than we would expect. This may be due to Japanese fiscal concerns with rising rates.

"...copied out hundreds of steps of proprietary DRAM manufacturing processes by hand, recording detailed process recipes covering equipment specifications, sequencing and yield optimisation. The handwritten notes were later used to reconstruct the manufacturing flow at CXMT"

With all five regional Fed manufacturing indices now reported, December activity (using the ISM's weights for sub-indices) was little-changed. But expectations are in good shape and improving broadly. Huge contrast to 6m ago.

Sold Nvidia to buy edge infra.

It took 9 years and 3 billion miles to get this shot. Pluto’s icy Mountains. Thankyou NASA ☺️

‘[…]under former President Barack Obama, leading to more than 300,000 deportations from 2008 to 2013. Nationwide, there was a 2% to 3% decrease in labor in the construction industry and a 5.7% decrease in new constructions during that time. ‘

Actual 2025 tariff rates are, to date, far less than statutory rates, but the costs of the tariffs are mostly borne by the US – estimated tariff pass-through to US prices in 2025 is 94%. Tariffs on imports act like a 1 to 2pp tax on US manufacturing. brentneiman.com/research/GN2...

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the rise of youtube streamers and Pat McAfee etc etc has revealed a really disturbing truth about American culture: for a large portion of the US public, mainstream sports broadcast were far too erudite for their tastes

‘The great decoupling of jobs and growth will take some explaining to the American public.’ Demented grandpa and the sycophants are going to look even more inept in six months.

From the banks of Oak Creek

Chicago’s Homicides Are Headed for Lowest Tally in 60 Years @business

‘For Japanese investors, domestic JGBs are now more attractive than hedged Treasuries, Bunds, and Gilts from a yield perspective.’ thedailyshot.com/2025/12/22/o...

For at least the 3rd time in almost 3 years, I strongly urge this UST to join MoF in intervening to strengthen JPY especially because it has already intervened to strengthen (another grossly undervalued regional anchor currency of a country with great manufacturing prowess.)* *Ok this part is snide

Ziggy Sobotka out. RIP

Katayama (MoF) taking lead in yen policy. I know what I want for Christmas.

"The emergence of Witkoff as envoy to the Kremlin is partly a story of Putin maneuvering to nudge aside America’s diplomats and clasp hands with its billionaires." Because the billionaires lack experience, can be manipulated. and have obvious conflicts of interest.

I’ve learned a lot about contemporary JP politics from reading Tobias this year. I think you will too.

The Donald J. Trump And Abraham Lincoln Memorial

Does momentum matter? Well, it depends. Below is an interesting table. The first line is the average return of the S&P 500 members. The second line is the average of ONLY the members who had outperformed the prior 5 years. +1.6% average over these 10 years

Read a few things today re: EUR internationalization, UKR loan etc. I agree with takes that loan (& mechanics around it) are important. Still, IMO, fiscal mutualization for certain causes (via J&S issuance) in & of itself is unlikely to be at scale sufficient to meet RoW demand for EUR safe assets.

If you want to know, read Agathe.

My dumb prediction: the actual benchmark revision will be about -807K, or a subtraction of 67K/month from the currently reported employment growth during March 2024-March 2025. (146K/Mo->79K/Mo) Before today's QCEW release I was expecting -69K/month. macromostly.substack.com/i/173200349/...

6. Could the EU loan pave the way for Eurobonds? • The bloc will issue a €90bn loan to Ukraine by raising joint EU debt on capital markets • This is huge, since it means that EU member states are taking one more step towards the issuance of Eurobonds [8/9]

For those asking--I do not advocate CB because it paints a better picture--consumers are still feeling pretty glum, it is because the sample size is 3x (3000 vs <1000 in UMich) and the methodology is more consistent over time whereas UMich went to online collection resulting in a known downward bias

Big, if true.

Commentary: Schools that implement smartphone-free policies see measurable improvements in academic performance and student wellbeing within a single semester.

Great and far reaching report here from EC on US tariffs and macro economy. Cc’ing for visibility: @peark.es @rajakorman.bsky.social @karl-schamotta.bsky.social @joebrusuelas.bsky.social @isaiahbishop.bsky.social @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social @pineconemacro.bsky.social

Can you imagine Lutnick or any soul in this admin with the cognition to model and weigh import tax drag on the US economy?? 😂

👀

Interesting fact here from a Stacy Rasgon Bernstein note this morning - "... over the last 10 years there have only been thirteen days where NVDA’s stock traded cheaper relative to the SOX than it is trading now."

1/Just back from Japan and a few thoughts about the alliance and economic security. First, there is a thirst for work on economic security that is pretty much unparalleled. japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/society/gene...

Wounding If you have a sense a history.

A lot of numbers and valuations being thrown around this week, but it seems clear that OpenAI is about to attempt a major raise in early 2026. Would be absolutely remarkable for OpenAI if they can raise $100bn