TriCap
@triforcecap.bsky.social
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📥 105
📝 2488
Markets. Universalism | Tolerance | Trust *One has to imagine Sisyphus happy.*
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John
about 1 hour ago
This reminds me of Michael Cembalest's great piece on the entertainment landscape from last November (below). This is worth the read. Especially during a period where the industry is undergoing a large acquisition (
#$WBD
)
assets.jpmprivatebank.com/content/dam/...
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https://assets.jpmprivatebank.com/content/dam/jpm-pb-aem/global/en/documents/eotm/winter-of-our-discontent.pdf
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The presidents talking in ways the market is not hearing.
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about 1 hour ago
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Shadow Hedgie 🌻
about 2 hours ago
so the one Spanish speaker left working for the FCC is the sole remaining Biden-appointed commissioner
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Metro North Capital
about 2 hours ago
Pierre, you’ve lost another seat?
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Don Curren 🇨🇦🇺🇦
about 3 hours ago
“The heat directly damages
#coffee
plants, causes erratic rainfall + increases the spread of pests, which can further damage
#crops
. The analysis suggests the problem is much more widespread than just 1 or 2 bad years temporarily hitting
#coffeeproduction
in certain areas”
www.cbc.ca/news/science...
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Coffee producers are facing more crop-damaging heat, new climate analysis says | CBC News
A new analysis of the world's coffee-growing regions over the last five years reveals a starkly higher number of days over 30 C, enough to stress coffee plants and affect yields.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/coffee-climate-change-heat-rain-9.7094800
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Richard Kadrey
about 4 hours ago
2026 basically
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Brighton Capital
about 3 hours ago
Lot of talk about soaring beef prices, but what about a basket of non-nutritive items most of which have 🚀 too? One plan: reduce consumption of most items. Maybe you'll look and feel better and you'll have money to maintain your coffee habit. Also, 🍺 and 🍷 remain relative bargains. 😉
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Jesse Felder
about 4 hours ago
'Across the US, conservative communities are leading a grassroots rebellion against the rapid rollout of AI. Political strategists fear this could wreck Republicans’ chance of maintaining a majority in Congress and become a defining issue in the 2028 presidential race.‘
www.ft.com/content/0c9e...
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Another crack in the mad-king's base. And this money quote from a MAGA empiricist is the pure stuff: “I have grandchildren . . . It does concern me that they’re being drawn into a world that isn’t real,” she said.
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Donald Trump’s AI push fuels revolt in Maga heartlands
Republicans fear backlash against White House agenda could undermine support in this year’s midterm elections
https://www.ft.com/content/0c9ec7b1-f9a6-41db-9493-3ff09f6943ef
about 4 hours ago
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Scott Lincicome
about 4 hours ago
"Chevron in 2019 ran 21 rigs and five frack crews in the Permian. This year it anticipates it will need only six rigs and two frack crews to produce about 67% more oil-and-gas in the region than seven years ago." 🤯
www.wsj.com/business/ene...
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Druck expressing through ETFs just like you. :)
add a skeleton here at some point
about 4 hours ago
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FinTwitter
about 4 hours ago
DRUCKENMILLER BETS BIG ON BRAZIL ETF BEFORE RALLY Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office bought ~3.5M shares and call options in the $9.1B iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) ahead of its 17% January surge, the best month since 2020. • Rally fueled by a softer
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Looking like long tenor JGBs and lifer P&Ls will get support from a capital accounting change.
add a skeleton here at some point
about 5 hours ago
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More bad news for a nation with the attention span of goldfish.
add a skeleton here at some point
about 5 hours ago
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Gregory Daco
about 5 hours ago
✅Some business investment green shoots! 📊Using PPI to deflate the new capital goods ex-aircraft shipments, volumes appears to be growing at 2% y/y pace. ⚠️This comes after 3 years of contraction and too early to conclude on the robustness of the trend, but it's encouraging
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Joey Politano🏳️🌈
about 6 hours ago
Here’s the piece the White House is threatening NY Fed economists over in case you wanna read it:
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-...
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Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs? - Liberty Street Economics
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this blog post, we ask how much of the tariffs were paid by the U.S., using import data through No...
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-is-paying-for-the-2025-u-s-tariffs/
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Scott Lincicome
about 8 hours ago
"Japan exports growth surges to over 3-year high, up nearly 17% in January, as shipments to China soar"
www.cnbc.com/2026/02/18/j...
"a near 26% jump in shipments to Asia and over 25% to Western Europe...more than offset the 3.3% decline in North America"
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EconReporter
5 days ago
Very cool graph
add a skeleton here at some point
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EconReporter
about 21 hours ago
On Sept 20, 2008, when Morgan Stanley was on the brink of collapse, Warsh received an ethics waiver to negotiate directly with his former employer as a governor for the Fed. The next day, the Fed approved Morgan Stanley to convert to a bank holding company, which gained it access to Fed loans
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Kevin Warsh’s Nomination Solidifies Wall Street’s Grip on the Federal Reserve - ProMarket
If confirmed, Kevin Warsh would be the latest Federal Reserve chair whose career took place primarily on Wall Street rather than in academia. The ascent of Wall Street veterans in the Fed risks skewin...
https://www.promarket.org/2026/02/17/kevin-warshs-nomination-solidifies-wall-streets-grip-on-the-federal-reserve/?__readwiseLocation=
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TIL: Cuba is top five producer of cobalt and has massive reserves.
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about 22 hours ago
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Nathan Kalman-Lamb
1 day ago
“I don’t want to be in this place I want to go to my school.” - 7 year old imprisoned by ICE for 70 days in a concentration camp in Texas. Today, after
@propublica.org
published this story, the camp was raided to confiscate letters from the children.
www.propublica.org/article/ice-...
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Chris Paxton
2 days ago
This comparison is striking-- so much is different from 1 year ago
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Simon Lester
13 days ago
"Tariffs by Unpublished Memo: Lawsuit Exposes How Opaque Enforcement Compounds the US Tariff Complexity Problem"
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Tariffs by Unpublished Memo: Lawsuit Exposes How Opaque Enforcement Compounds the US Tariff Complexity Problem
Whatever Customs and Border Protection’s intent, the agency’s unpublished rule reinforces the perception (at the very least) that US trade policy was designed to do the steel industry’s bidding
https://www.cato.org/blog/tariffs-unpublished-memo-lawsuit-exposes-how-opaque-enforcement-compounds-us-tariff-complexity
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Karthik Sankaran
1 day ago
I guess it’s not a surprise that pronatalist stablecoin bros could end up destroying the singleness of money.
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Matt Darling
3 days ago
That a lot of the story of 2024 is the American *consumer* class going Kalecki is really important and something we need to deal with; instead of pretending something more convenient happened.
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Ed Bradford
3 days ago
Companies continue to ramp up their AI adoption efforts
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Tobias Harris
4 days ago
Ideological labels do not explain everything, but we should be clear about the intellectual tradition from which Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae emerged.
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
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Takaichi Sanae is who she is
What matters is, as always, how she navigates between ideals and reality
https://open.substack.com/pub/observingjapan/p/takaichi-sanae-is-who-she-is?r=ax7nw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
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Reuters
4 days ago
World Curling take action after Sweden accuse Canada of cheating
reut.rs/3MFy06a
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World Curling take action after Sweden accuse Canada of cheating
World Curling said on Saturday that it would have officials monitoring for rule violations during the rest of the competition at the Olympics after Sweden's men's team accused Canada of cheating in a tense round-robin game.
https://reut.rs/3MFy06a
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Shipwreck
4 days ago
Norwegian government scientist—working in strict secrecy—constructed a device capable of emitting powerful pulses of microwave energy. He developed neurological symptoms resembling those reported in Havana syndrome cases.
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Elizabeth Jacobs, PhD
6 days ago
Under Trump, the USDA *wildly* underestimated the amount of corn that was harvested by US farmers in 2025. This has been attributed by experts to be a direct result of massive staffing cuts. Now, nobody in agriculture trusts USDA estimates and this could have disastrous effects.
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USDA's reputation suffers after massive revisions in US corn acres
The U.S. Department of Agriculture, long the world's gold standard for crop estimates, faces mounting doubts about the reliability of its data from farmers, grain traders and economists following deep...
https://www.reuters.com/business/usdas-reputation-suffers-after-massive-revisions-us-corn-acres-2026-02-10/?utm_source=reddit.com
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Rachel Ziemba
5 days ago
USG wrote about what they think they are doing here. Reinforces fact that US goods and services and naptha prioritized but global partners can participate as long as contracts set under US law. Relative lattitude for IOCs already present…
links-2.govdelivery.com/CL0/https:%2...
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Actions to Implement President Trump’s Vision for Venezuelan Oil - United States Department of State
The Trump Administration is rapidly implementing President Trump’s vision to reopen and develop Venezuela’s oil industry for the shared benefit of the American and Venezuelan people. Thanks to Preside...
https://links-2.govdelivery.com/CL0/https:%2F%2Fwww.state.gov%2Freleases%2Foffice-of-the-spokesperson%2F2026%2F02%2Factions-to-implement-president-trumps-vision-for-venezuelan-oil%2F/1/0101019c5867dcf6-e3756bbe-7157-47de-8a35-c6d907baaefc-000000/IKXQGUAORlMInhhRD6xQt6JuKRwqS7X3ZAgKgzBMYR0=444
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Karen Nye
5 days ago
Watch Bloomberg TV at 3pm Eastern to hear KPMG US chief economist Diane Swonk parse the new inflation data with hosts Romaine Bostick and Katie Greifeld.
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FinTwitter
5 days ago
JAPAN TO ISSUE VIETNAM $10B IN YEN LOANS: NIKKEI
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Anne Schechinger
8 days ago
The Farm Bureau's own chart shows that the number of farm bankruptcies in 2025 was much lower than in 2016-2020. The chart also shows that many more farms went bankrupt during the first Trump Admin compared to the Biden Admin.
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Rachel Ziemba
5 days ago
OFAC is currently a Venezuela general license issuing machine, churning out many general licenses in the last week or so, to address loopholes that stopped purchases + investment. Latest allow for contracts for some work needed to explore O&G exploration/prod inv
ofac.treasury.gov/media/935011...
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https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/935011/download?inline
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FinTwitter
5 days ago
PENTAGON: ADDS BYD TO LIST OF CHINESE FIRMS AIDING MILITARY
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FinTwitter
5 days ago
White House Trade Adviser Navarro: There's no basis in fact that the administration is planning to reduce steel and aluminum tariffs - CNBC.
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Karl Schamotta
5 days ago
Fun with charts for Friday the 13th: 1/5: Underlying inflation pressures are still fading, giving the Fed room to respond if labour markets worsen in the months ahead:
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Brian Romanchuk
5 days ago
Latest piece: a bit of background on the effects of the shift away from manufacturing.
open.substack.com/pub/bondecon...
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Secular Shifts In Employment
The Payrolls Employment Report in the United States released earlier this week was stronger than expected (although there were downward revisions of 2024-2025 levels).
https://open.substack.com/pub/bondeconomics/p/secular-shifts-in-employment?r=nmvfm&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
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Dario Perkins
5 days ago
probably the most important chart of the last 3 months
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Dheepa Sundaram, PhD (she/her)
6 days ago
CBP didn’t give her or anyone any water; she asked 3 times accg to other reports. CBP killed a 7yr old. “8 hours after the girl & her father were taken into custody, she began having seizures & her body temperature was measured at 105.7 degrees by emergency medical technicians.
shorturl.at/d2OTJ
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7-Year-Old Migrant Girl Dies Of Dehydration And Shock In U.S. Border Patrol Custody
The girl's death underscores the crisis precipitated by large groups of families seeking asylum where there are inadequate facilities to detain them.
https://shorturl.at/d2OTJ
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FinTwitter
6 days ago
BOJ'S TAMURA: Core inflation is gradually rising and is approaching a level that could be considered embedded.
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John
6 days ago
“Claude Code was made available to the general public in May 2025. Today, Claude Code’s run-rate revenue has grown to over $2.5 billion; this figure has more than doubled since the beginning of 2026.”
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Anthropic raises $30 billion in Series G funding at $380 billion post-money valuation
Anthropic is an AI safety and research company that's working to build reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems.
https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-30-billion-series-g-funding-380-billion-post-money-valuation
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John
6 days ago
New Gemini 3 Deep Think rollout announced by
#$GOOGL
this morning - blog is focused on its impact with mathematics, physics, and engineering
blog.google/innovation-a...
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Gemini 3 Deep Think: Advancing science, research and engineering
We’re releasing a major upgrade to Gemini 3 Deep Think, our specialized reasoning mode.
https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-3-deep-think/
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Ed Borgato
6 days ago
Fintwit archive, 2013.
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Dario Perkins
6 days ago
New episode of our podcast: 1) Green shoots in the US jobs market? 2) How will Warsh change the Fed (clue: a lot of mindless virtue signaling) 3) The Anything-But-US-Tech trade Apple:
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify:
open.spotify.com/episode/568E...
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The Warsh Fed and The Trade of The Decade
Podcast Episode · GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish · 02/11/2026 · 42m
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-warsh-fed-and-the-trade-of-the-decade/id1767634755?i=1000749296043
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Wonderful graph here from
@karl-schamotta.bsky.social
.
6 days ago
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“When the numbers are bad for business, you stop tracking them.” - McKinsey consultant once probably.
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6 days ago
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Go diplomacy. ⚫️
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6 days ago
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Joe Robertson
7 days ago
More than 400 people, including hundreds of citizens, were “sorted” at gun point into racial and ethnic groups by 200 ICE agents who fired flash-bang grenades into cars with people inside, pointed guns at children & demanded their zip tied parents not comfort them.
apple.news/Ausdx6kWtT0e...
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Idaho families sue over immigration raid that swept up hundreds, including U.S. citizens — NBC News
About 400 people, including children and U.S. citizens, were detained for four hours while they were denied food and water in the raid, according to the lawsuit.
https://apple.news/Ausdx6kWtT0eDxez2Bby01Q
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