Apple agrees to submit India financials in long-pending antitrust case reut.rs/4elsJf2

US ISM Services Index May: 54.5 (est 53.8; prev 53.6) - Prices Paid: 71.3 (est 72.3; prev 70.7) - New Orders: 57.3 (est 53.4; prev 53.5) - Employment: 47.9 (est 48.8; prev 48.0)

ZELENSKIY SAYS HE IS READY FOR DIRECT TALKS WITH PUTIN TO END WAR

Signs of excessive trader optimism are growing. The CBOE equity put/call ratio has fallen sharply (few puts, more calls), with the 10-day now at its lowest (most optimistic) since 2021-22.

every options/correlation metric is in the danger zone, but the steep VX board in the front is the 1 thing that will help against a wicked market break. spy will probably have to get above 25 for June to invert over July

add to this the reporting from @michaelsderby.bsky.social on a new review of the reappointment process of regional presidents and things are about to get spicy www.reuters.com/business/fin...

FWIW S&P Global US Services: "Employment falls at steepest rate in six years"

You are not crazy to think about ‘87 either.

Some ideas: Monpol tightening lag ended in 2025. Rate sensitive sectors may be trying to expand. If the above is true, the economic cost of our racist immigration regime should start to appear in wages and rates in H2.

Reminder that the SEC's "pattern day trader" rules go away starting tomorrow (June 4). Until now, the rule said an investor needed $25K in an account if they are a pattern day trader, meaning more than 4 day trades in a week. Now there is no trade count or $25K minimum, just intraday margin.

“After almost 30 years — Oregon’s law, the first in the country, was enacted in 1997 — the addition of two populous states means that almost a third of Americans will live in one where medical aid in dying is legally available” #econsky #medicine marketdesigner.blogspot.com/2026/06/abou...

IMHO the “earnings bubble” framework is not useful. The gist of this is that the capex beneficiaries are over earning, over time, both the earnings level and margins will mean revert such that the current multiple being paid is expensive. That’s the risk at all times with investing in cyclicals!

reply to every email with "I did not give you permission to send this" and then if they apologize and ask for permission get even madder for the second unpermitted email

Yes! This is what I've been saying. Ignore state & national farm bureaus, trade assocs & the secy of agriculture. Pay attn to USDA *data* and reports from Midwest FRBs and ag lenders. P.S. One of the authors has a Masters from Youngstown State. Dude knows when to call something a crisis. ;-)

Here's what Janet Yellen said today about lessons from the Powelll years at the Fed www.brookings.edu/articles/rem...

Love this chart of economic thought.

Oh boy. I'm in el jefe's feed now; have to clean up my act.

Winfree wrote the Fed chapter of Project 2025. Reform menu waterfall: Full abolition of Fed, return to free banking, or Return to gold standard, or Eliminate employment mandate, or Transfer Fed authority to electeds.

Pulte can fix this.

When you see someone who does a similar job to you do you assume (before you have evidence) that they do it better than/worse than/as well as you do your job?

DNI went from elite diplomat Negroponte to abject idiocracy in 20 years. (we are not serious people.)

I'm not sure these are unrelated: 'Most said they have faith in Trump and his judgment[...]' 'Back in 2021, the last year data was available, farmers were 3 ½ times likelier to die by suicide than the general population[...]' (In crisis? Call or text 988 or chat with us online at 988lifeline.org)

'Competitive companies - not commons idealists, not open source advocates, but enterprises with shareholders and quarterly targets - have a straightforward interest in sovereign, decentralized AI infrastructure.'

Jensen used this phrase last night at #$NVDA's financial q&a and Satya just used it in the first few minutes of his keynote... "Unmetered Intelligence"

Hyperliquid gets the @wsj.com treatment: www.wsj.com/finance/curr...

the hiring chart lines up with moves. reinforces how stuck people feel

Global Imbalances From Orbit

Purdue-CME latest survey of Ag Producers (Right Track / Wrong Track) : For perspective, 75% of U.S. ag producers voted for Trump in 2024

Away from Computex ... we will hear from Satya later today at the Microsoft Build conference. Likely to hear additional information about the Nvidia PC partnership + discussion around some of their own software / AI improvements. Interesting juxtaposition before next week's Apple WWDC

the Bitter Lesson

This is actually completely rational The ERP currently is *highly negative* -- issuing debt at ~5-6% cost of capital vs. equity at *negative real* cost of capital is fully rational In fact, the large tech companies should be raising equity to build Foundries (also fabs and memory)

Reading the release, this reads like an investment banker's wet dream. It's far from just a simple secondary offering. abc.xyz/investor/new...

hahhahahahahahaha *ALPHABET SHARES RISE AS MUCH AS 1.4% ON EQUITY CAPITAL RAISE

'Over its inaugural weekend, more than 7,200 Cryptocurrency futures and options contracts were traded (~$50 million in notional)'

Mississauga organized crime getting disrupted before payday.

Wow they beat OpenAI to it? *ANTHROPIC CONFIDENTIALLY SUBMITS DRAFT S-1 TO SEC FOR IPO

Seems like IRGC is ready to put more work in.

For value investors of a certain age, this is noteworthy.

Reminder this Pride Month that the more than 40% of transgender adults have attempted suicide and 81% of transgender adults in the U.S. have thought about suicide. williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/press/transp...

“.. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income growth fell by 1.1% y/y in April. Rarely have we seen that kind of a decline outside of recessions.” - Schwab

Oil & gasoline got plastered last month, but cocoa & #natgas soared @soberlook thedailyshot.com/sub...

The inflation of Rommel’s credentials continues well into the 21st century is something I wouldn’t expect to happen. Churchill to parliament kinda kicks off the myth for Anglos, but the durability and duration is kinda unique.

Qatari Foreign Ministry: We call on the international community to compel the Israeli occupation authorities to stop its aggressions against Lebanon

Very smart counter-cyclical purchase. Abel is 1/1 on deals in my books so far.

BERKSHIRE TO ACQUIRE TAYLOR MORRISON FOR $72.50 A SHARE IN CASH

Below is a gift link to Bloomberg’s article (31 May) on the potential “Super” El Niño. You can also read about this climate phenomenon in my article “Godzilla Returns” (21 May) — which requires no gift link because Unstable Equilibria is free. Gift article 🎁 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

We are now in a place where not only does most of the GOP believe that political legitimacy is derived solely from the electoral consent of those voters that would have had the suffrage in 1859, but a surprising number of Dems think wins without a majority of such voters are somehow tarnished.