Donald Trump: "you can't put nuclear weapons in the hands of a lunatic!"

Ugly ISM services employment gauge

This is a high-stakes week for the bond market. The recent spike in crude prices - fueled by the conflict in Iran - will show up in March’s inflation data. The consensus on Wall Street is a headline print of 1%.

Probably best to just average the past two months. Feb -133K. March 178. Avg 22.5K

Cozy mini market day for the release of the March payroll report. Globex closes at 11:15 am for Good Friday

FWIW Revelio Labs says US March NFP rose 19,400

USTs switched to rally mode once crude exceeded 109 (May contract)

Epic Loonie

You have to go all the way back to Charlemagne to find someone who brought Europe together as effectively as Trump.

Fed RMPs working. Tame quarter-end

No great surprise but still. ISM price index surging higher in March

Market will be sensitive to labor market data. A smallish ADP beat pressuring Ts a bit

It's quarter-end with a smallish duration extension later today. More importantly a reminder that April is the cruelest month for USTs as tax payment season liquidity squeeze generally pressures financial assets

Cuts winning out vs hikes now. Market net pricing 5 bps of cuts this year

Fed funds futures mostly back to "normal" as the near term rate hike gets priced out. Live chart vs last Thurs.

Think of the 1-year forward 1-year inflation swap as a market gauge for the current inflation vs growth battle.

Hormuz has been easier to navigate this weekend than TSA.

Not often you see STIRs trying to price hikes and cuts at the same time, but that is the current level of uncertainty. What will dominate in the next few months, inflation or a growth slowdown? Get that correct and you are golden

UMich inflation exp is generally a proxy for gas station prices so expect a nasty print today at 10 am. Market could overreact to this since Fed generally can look past one-time price increases as long as inflation exp are anchored.

UST 30s eyeballing 5%

5y SOFR swap spreads have been heavy lately and just narrowed below -35 bps. Tactically good level IMO esp with the possibility of reg relief soon

Crazy shift in the Fed's rate path since the war started. A change this dramatic is bound to have some casualties in HF land

5s30s just took out the low from Monday. Back end flattening aggressively post auction

2s and 5s low of the day before the 7yr auction. Not too surprising after two tailing auctions but obviously weekend angst major driver.

Weekend Trump is back: "Don't know if we're willing to work on deal with Iran"

Market probability tracker from Atlanta Fed. As of 3/24, odds of a rate hike by the June FOMC is 41% and of a rate cut 14%. More detail here: www.atlantafed.org/research-and...

UST 5y auction will be interesting after a nasty 2y yesterday. Some news cross-currents may have affected clean bidding for 2s which should be a factor for 5s today as well. Also more of a concession would be nice

SpaceX IPO a boon for Space stocks: $PL, $RKLB, $LUNR, $ASTS all up double digit. $PL my fav has the most beautiful prive/vol chart

Trump loses the district that includes Mar-a-Lago. Democrat Emily Gregory has defeated Republican Jon Maples in the Florida State House District 87 Special Election.

Market Open Trump: Great deal in the works. Cease fire soon. Market Closed Trump: We will be destroying your power grid in 48 hours.

Psyop?

US, Iran talks maybe as soon as Thurs

Nasty tail (1.8 bps). Not a good sign that 2s couldn't find solid bids so far above IOR

FWIW

UST and IG supply will be an added headwind for rates this week. The whole curve is trading above the Fed's overnight target range as rates cuts go on pause for now and hedging for a near term rate increase drive price action

The Islamic regime in Iran has confirmed the death sentence of 18-year-old Melika Azizi. Melika was arrested in January 2026 during nationwide protests for setting fire to regime symbols and was charged with “moharebeh” (waging war against God).

It is hard to know what is actually going on, but markets can take some comfort that Trump isn't going through with his threat of targeting Iran's power grid

Strange Fed rate path. A mini hike and then back to easing in 2027

Nasty open for USTs with front-end under the most pressure. 2y futs off 3.5 ticks

Spring equinox coming up at 10:46 am. Hoping thoughts of Spring can change the current sour mood

Fed rate path now vs three weeks ago. Higher odds of rate hikes due to Iran war inflation doing a number rate projection

Has SMCI gone straight down since it was added to SPooz?

Waller having his own personal Trichet moment: "oil can bleed through to core inflation at some point"

Europe/UK back at it, forcing their rate hikes on us. April hike odds 12%... more than just noise

NETANYAHU: WAR LIKELY TO END MUCH FASTER THAN EXPECTED

Markets liking that Bibi's going to help with Hormuz

5s30s more than 10 bps flatter. Big but not epic

I understand tracking Euro/UK rates and upping rate hike bets, but the bar is crazy high in the US because of the dual mandate. And US labor market is looking shaky

That was a hawkish presser. JP discounted the latest NFP print and revisions. Spent time discussing rate hikes even if hypothetical. Highlighted anchored inflation expectation as a prerequisite for further rate cuts.