Quiet 30y auction (reopening) sneaking up here. Should go well with curve steep and year-end long-end seasonality usually a thing

Silver (the new bitcoin) has been on an epic run and is now up 56% above its 200 DMA

Reversal of recent trend with initial jobless claims perking up while continuing pulled back by 100K

Reserve management purchases

2s5s trades north of 18 bps briefly as curve starts to price the end of the cut cycle. Assuming a low 3% terminal rate, 2s5s still has plenty of room to steepen.

Fed friendly private industry wage YoY now 3.6%.

SERFFers hoping for some kind of fix to overnight rates from Fed today. I very much doubt they tweak IOR since they likely view current upward rate pressure as temporary and related to year-end.

Post-cut UST 2s will be only 5bps off of IOR, the best level since early this year

JOLTS headline pressuring front-end Ts but Quit Rate makes a new cycle low

Supply in the face of impaired year-end balance sheets pressuring USTs with belly feeling it the most. 2s5s above 16 bps, steepest since crazy April.

Notable surge in CAD 2s today as well

*UMICH SHORT- AND LONG-RUN INFL EXPS FALL TO 11-MONTH LOWS

I am not sure why this is happening but market pricing cut cycle terminal a touch higher vs last week. If anything background noise (data and Hassett chatter) had been supportive of deeper cuts

Revelio Labs Nov Employment -9k www.reveliolabs.com/public-labor...

ISM Services labor market gauge remains below 50 (48.9)

Fed's own Beige book corroborates ADP data. There is no excuse for rates to be above neutral. Fed should cut

Trump is announcing next Fed chair early '26. That is later than expected

Looks like Bloomberg is giving up on figuring out the exact timing of economic data prints. Best they can offer is a date range

With inflation sticky, confidence is growing that the cut cycle won't extend beyond 3% and USTs adjusting to that reality and pricing a very normal looking yield curve. 1-Year forward chart

Globex is back. And with the early cash close of around 2pm. I am guessing duration extension will be around 1 pm EST.

Because of Thanksgiving tomorrow, it will be an early 7y auction at 11:30 am. $44B coming your way

PMIs haven't been that useful this cycle NTL another ugly Chicago PMI print 36

Tame initial claims but continuing claims flirting with cycle highs. No hire, no fire labor market still with us

Prime beneficiary of the Hassett chatter UST 5s coming up ($70B auction)

Conference Board's labor market gauge should be a nice clean read of Nov labor market

With USTs fully entangled with stocks, hard to manage trades using normal calendar patterns and setups. Will be gnarly through Thanksgiving IMO

A nice jump in Dec cut odds after stale Sept payrolls showed unemployment at cycle highs (4.4%).

BLS Cancels October Jobs Report, Couldn’t Collect Household Data

With SCOTUS tariff decision looming, long-end has been under pressure lately. Today's new 20y auction will be a good test for near term Thanksgiving price action. Short the belly and front-end seems like the "logical" trade but maybe oversubscribed.

Dec cut odds should move on weekly ADP.

May I meat you?

Fed's V Chair flagging Beige book next week as key eco print for Dec

USTs tried to rally this morning but AMZN benchmark deal has them under pressure again.

Classic FTQ price action so reminiscent of the 2010s

Largest duration dump on deck as the US Treasury is to auction $25B new Long bonds at 1 pm. 30s have been outperforming the belly past few days as the market sets up for Thanksgiving auctions that are usually challenging.

US Treasury issuing brand new bigly 10s and 30s today and tomorrow. I expect auctions to go well as Thanksgiving week flattener setups dominate. NB Thanksgiving front-end auctions (2s, 5s and 7s) always treacherous.

Weekly ADP giving Ts a bid

Good news from DC and supply have been pressuring Ts since the Globex open. Long-end did find a relative bid this morning with 5s30s reversing a bit below 100 bps. 3y auction coming up at 1 pm

USTs want to rally but supply next week keeping them relatively grounded. It's a refunding month so new 10s and 30s which are of the larger variety. Also an early 3y auction on Monday with V-day on Tues

Consumers not that happy

Canada's employment data in 15 mins

Revelio Labs says US lost -9100 non farm jobs in Oct

Still soft below 50 ISM employment index

Service PMIs coming up next. Again with no govt data, the employment measures should have an impact on Ts

As shutdown drags on and government economic data get delayed, ADP is back in the spotlight this morning as a key measure of the labor market. A Desultory Print No More.

Kewl Bloomberg chart showing coupon auction sizes. Primary dealers expect no change in tomorrow's QRA

Because of overnight rate volatility, it has hard to pinpoint the odds, but Dec Fed cut probability remaining firm at 60% (ish)

Alphabet deal like the meta deal last week is across the curve with longest a 50y

Waller full on audition mode for Fed chair

There has been aggressive selling of Ts into the past few month-end extensions. Hoping for a less spooky version today with QRA coming up next week.