Remarkable chart. $MSTR traded at a high of 543 after Trump won the election. It is currently trading 76% lower

QE era suppressed long-end yields slowly normalizing across the Globe. German 30y yield climbs to highest since 2011

Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...

QE era suppressed duration yields slowly normalizing across the Globe. German 30y yield climbs to highest since 2011

Neat chart from Barclays showing S&P 500 lowsses upon a new Fed chair. Average drawdowns of 5%, 12% and 16% over the one-, three- and six-month periods

Apparently, BLS won't be releasing NFP on Friday because of the partial government shutdown

USTs justifiably no longer react to manufacturing PMIs

Oracle debt offering pressuring USTs

After reflecting over the weekend, market has decided curve should be steeper for a Warsh Fed. 5s30s 3-4 bps higher (futures implied)

US Treasury QRA coming up this Wed. TBAC questions don't suggest any change to coupon auction sizes despite some bond market speculation of long end cuts. Expect Treasury to issue gobs of TBills this year and for the Fed to buy most of them for RMP and reinvestment of MBS. Steady for now

Kind of thinking more about "reserve status" in terms of three actors and what it would actually take to shift it: - Central Banks, kind of unclear geopolitics - International Business - Institutional investors I think the connection with the last two is really interesting

Weekend Silver

High odds that a Chair Warsh would dissent at an upcoming FOMC interest rate decision. I am pretty sure that has never happened in the US.

Bitcoin eyeballing 80K

Interesting Miran comment: to shrink Fed balance sheet we need regulatory reform. Sounds like they'd like to reduce arb frictions for banks intermediating UST funding so there is better overnight rate control if reserves aren't so ample

Silver 1 Day price change

PCE components of Dec PPI

Initial reaction to Warsh last night was to dump the long end. Partial recovery since early morning though with 30s settling around 4.88

It's official. Warsh

Warsh's past criticism of the Fed's large balance sheet weighing on the long end. 30y yield up to 4.90

Apparently, this tweet caused the Warsh surge

Amusing how market views Warsh as more bearish than the other choices. Belly under pressure as his chances surge

Trump will announce Fed pick tomorrow morning.

Not sure what happened but Warsh back in the lead on Kalshi after a big move

$MSTR 45% lower since 2024 election

Not as exciting as precious metals, but UST 2s5s steepeners may finally be timely as the 2yr carry/roll penalty is almost gone

Trump has such a weird model of how interest rates work

Waller and Miran dissent. Last ditch effort by Waller to swap T

Some speculating Trump might announce his Fed chair nominee just as JP takes the podium for the FOMC presser.

Bessent: US always has a strong dollar policy. Helping USD here

Don't see how today's FOMC statement/presser can be market moving. Near term it's all about Trump's chair choice and the confirmation hearings. Thoughts?

Census shows a dramatic slowing in population growth from declining net migration--immigration is slowing and emigration is rising, the latter can reflect both voluntary deportation & brain drain www.census.gov/newsroom/blo...

With a boring 5y UST auction coming up, worth checking out EURUSD that's trading at the highest level since late 2021 and eyeballing 1.20

A bit late to this, but it looks like initial claims may be overstating labor market strength/ Another tumble in the Conference Board's gauge in Jan to a new cycle low.

For the record, silver topped intraday at 145% above its 200DMA

Definitely an epic (dare say crazy) run by Silver which is now trading more that 130% above it's 200 DMA

Beyond PMs, Bloomberg's USD index quietly printing four year lows

Gold 5K

Yen 0.7% richer in early trading

Meanwhile, UST 5s continues its cheapening trend YTD vs broad curve. Typical price action as cut cycle nears an end 2s5s30s curve

Silver looking to print 100

Aussie dollar quietly outgaining other currencies and now at highest level vs USD since late 2024.

Duration relatively attractive after the Japan-led sell off in the long-end. Smallish ($13B) 20y reopening should find willing buyers especially with Treasury QRA coming up soon.

Most bizarre speech by US President giving Ts a bit of bid before 20y auction.

Meanwhile Gold Silver ratio continues selling off and is now below 50x. This is one of the most dramatic moves for the ratio in the modern era. Ratio vs 200DMA:

Dramatic sell off in Japan's 30 year bond overnight on fiscal worries. US long end pressured higher as well with yield now north of 4.92

Rate path has been shifting higher vs 3 months ago as labor market angst has diminished. Cut cycle terminal rate now 3.26

Suprised by the recent flattening trend in the back end of the UST curve. With Trump's Fed chair decision imminent would have expected more agita. Hassett not leading Kalshi could be calming nerves.