The index of consumer sentiment isn't broken; models that try to predict it just don't have the right input variables. I fix that and find that, yes, high nominal price levels explain why the vibes are so off. It's the prices, stupid www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-14...

Devastating: Hampshire College is permanently closing following the Fall 2026 Semester. A beautiful institution & community that has done so much for so many. My child is a current Hampshire senior. Hampshire's approach to education is so unique, humane, & exciting—I've seen it first hand. Tragic

E wee see we go see e eee for the e go e go eee for the eeeeeee we e e e go see ee e go see see the way we go see the way you

Hungary's prime minister elect announcing that Orbán was funding CPAC and other Trump-related political activities (also Heritage Foundation's Project 2025), and this will now end.

Let's revisit the GREAT CHICAGO LOOP FLOOD of April 13, 1992 🌊 📸: Photos are all from the Chicago Tribune archives

I’m far from an expert on authoritarianism, but I think we need another word to describe regimes between democracy and “true” authoritarianism other than hybrid. It’s confusing to most people to see a regime we described as authoritarian lose a free election and concede.

Deranged anti-Pope Leo screed from the current president of the U.S.

Here's the full list. Chicago neighborhood areas by population density, compared to their historical max.

😮🇭🇺🗳️ THIS IS MASSIVE. Hungary’s parliamentary election turnout hit 74.23% by 5pm (62.92% at this point in 2022; final: 70.21%). Opposition stronghold Budapest is at 77.18%, big cities 75.55%. Final turnout is set to exceed 80% – unprecedented. Polls close at 7pm CET.

Happy Hungarian election day! Our final poll tracker update gives Tisza, the centre-right opposition, a 6pt lead over Orban's Fidesz: www.economist.com/interactive/...

Vanilla Ice?

"[Negotiation] requires a great deal of time and energy, and he who gets tired and bored quickly will lose" Abbas Aragchi, Ph.D., Iranian foreign minister, in a book he wrote about negotiation.

Excellent episode with two of my favourite public intellectuals on why the civilisation being destroyed is actually the US.

Carlos Lagrange has four strikeouts (and two walks) through two innings. The velo is … velo-ing.

FT: Talks between the United States and Iran in Pakistan have reached a stalemate over control of the Strait of Hormuz, two sources briefed on the negotiations say, with Iran insisting it retain authority over the waterway and rejecting joint control proposals HERE YOU GO. That’s the reality.

🚢 Strait of Hormuz transit tracker

NEWS: Two U.S. Navy destroyers were forced to turn back while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened them and launched a drone toward the ships, per Bloomberg citing a regional intelligence official. 1/

Big new poll across 13 states, conducted by a GOP polling firm, finds: "Republican support for offshore wind has grown by 30% since January 2025." Perhaps cutting off major sources of new energy during a supposed energy crisis is too dumb even for Republicans?

Reagan’s OMB Director:

Looks like Trump's attempt to kill US offshore wind has failed.

first in my bloodline to see someone get excommunicated by a community note

The US Administration has proposed a new rule that would bar almost all asylum-seekers from legally working, for at least a decade. My colleagues and I have written and submitted a detailed analysis of how this act will impact the United States economy. 🧵—>

An important step forward for restoring freedom of navigation. But it’s telling that the US Navy waited for a ceasefire before proceeding through the strait. Too dangerous if the war is still going on, which mean Iran still has a veto over transit.

Outer Wilds. The best game that you can never play twice.

A few point out that Arthur R. Miller has been at the job longer: He started the tenure track *64 years ago,* in 1962, during the Kennedy Administration, and he is not yet emeritus. its.law.nyu.edu/facultyprofi...

🚨 NSF is already quietly eliminating the SBE Directorate, despite Congress’ mandate that NSF support the behavioral & social sciences. Steps to counter this are in motion. If you - have an SBE proposal under review - serve on an SBE grant panel You can help! Fill out this form: shorturl.at/xuKw2

In fifty years when people look back at the past decade or so, the big world-changing technological innovation won't be the chatbot slop machines, it'll be mRNA.

Ichiro hasn't lost a step. He blames the broken bat on Mariano Rivera

Someone got up there and bent the Ichiro statue's bat back into place. Tim Robinson, "yep that'll do it" meme

The letter fragment I've seen from Swalwell's attorney threatening defamation bears several things that, in my experience in this area, makes me immediately suspicious of Swalwell and his attorney and reflect meritless thuggery. /1

I've got a new paper out today with @timlapira.bsky.social and @salilb.bsky.social in ERC showing that party ID strongly structures political elites' beliefs about climate change. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

How many years did Donald Trump spend bitching about the $1.7bn Obama released to Iran in the nuclear deal?

Fox News doc on lower fertility rate: "The problem is teens and young adults, from ages 15-19 the fertility rate is down 7%, and it's down 70% over the last two decades, meaning we're telling people that are young not have babies, to wait until they're in a more stable life situation"

Okay this isn’t really happening anymore so I can tell you how l had “internal ICE sources”: the 3000 very stir-crazy ICE agents were all going wild on Minneapolis Tinder. Local girls would match with them and string them along for intel. They loved to brag about what they were doing all day

#polisky share far and wide: @apsa.bsky.social Statement on the Proposed Elimination of the Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences Directorate at the National Science Foundation apsanet.org/wp-content/u...

*HASSETT: HORMUZ CAN BE OPENED WITHIN TWO MONTHS that's terrible news if true, and it's being spun as positive!

The latest eruption at Kilauea appears to be starting! We should see large lava fountains soon. Tune in live here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXKu...

This is really impressive speed tbh. Not much gets by Powell.

Excuse me

Updating my birthrate fan chart. Since 1989, birth rates for US women age 15-17 have fallen 87%. For those age 40-44 birth rates have increased 146%. The total (not shown) has fallen 23%.

This bribe is more than 4x bigger than all the money that changed hands throughout the entire Teapot Dome episode.

Iran's 10 point plan seems to put them in a better position than they were in before the war www.theguardian.com/world/2026/a...

I know it's risky to read much into state-level elections, but the difference in these two maps is pretty striking. The left shows county-level votes for Trump and Harris in 2024 in Wisconsin. The right shows the results of yesterday's Supreme Court race, where the Democrat won in a landslide.

If I'm a GOP member of Congress and I'm in this table, I would be worried about re-election — especially if Trump keeps doing what he's doing and I keep voting to let him www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-07...

Impossible to disagree with a single word that Ben Rhodes (Obama era NSC official) is saying here:

Okay hype posting aside this is a rubicon moment and Republicans about to learn the hard way on that state/municipal level elections have consequences

If you're a generic-ballot-polling-is-underrated-Dems conspiracy theorist, here are the only two polls we had of the Wisconsin race. NYT characterized them as "muted" today. Undecideds broke 2:1 to Taylor. Weird non-partisan race caveats aside, that would explain Dem underperformance in polls.

Truly apocalyptic numbers for WisGOP in the state's most important swing region

It's nonsense, but Graham knows that Trump just gave away the ship.