This bit from Hannah Spencer's maiden speech struck me. On one level, it's just the sort of flimflam people say in maiden speeches or on the campaign trail. But it implies there are bits of the country where these things are not true. Where in the UK do we not see each other as human?

Should Labour move left or right? It’s the wrong question, says Patrick English patrickenglish.substack.com/p/should-lab...

Really interesting re Reform's benefits messaging that Reform tend to overperform in seats ranked higher for worklessness and Greens in seats with more in-work poverty. By @warringfictions.bsky.social

This analysis of UK voting patterns by studying different forms of deprivation is fascinating and provides an explanation for Labour's Green/Reform dilemma. It's the work of Chris Clarke, doing the job of an entire think-tank here. @warringfictions.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/parables...

Here @chriscurtis94.bsky.social tells the sequence, thinking and analysis actually behind ‘hero voters’, inc. how my research @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social on economic insecurity w/ @rosedegeus.bsky.social informed understanding of the economic basis of electoral coalitions pre-2024.

Have been a bit frustrated by some of the conversation about Labour's voter coalition. I've written about who the "Hero Voters" actually were, how we won them, and what we need to do to earn their support next time. chriscurtismk.substack.com/p/who-actual...

Worth reading by @chriscurtis94.bsky.social. Abundantly clear to anyone that spends a cursory amount of time on public opinion that economic insecurity, exacerbated 10x by cost of living crisis is driving political force of our time, fuelling Labour’s woes chriscurtismk.substack.com/p/who-actual...

I think there is a vg case for the Alternative Vote (pluralist majoritarianism) UK's evolving party system - not least as of balanced use for voters on different sides of political spectrum. It allows sincere voting by every voter + strategic choices by those who care www.ft.com/content/38d8...

NEW: After Gorton & Denton, how should we understand the threat to Labour's left? Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out with @38degrees.bsky.social on 'progressive defectors' - Lab 2024 switchers to Greens, Plaid, SNP, Lib Dems. Who are they, who are they not & what's moving them? 🧵

The Two Deprivations open.substack.com/pub/parables...

1/ I have done a data dive on ‘The Two Deprivations’ and the govt’s Green-Reform dilemma: parables.substack.com/p/the-two-de... It references the work of @luketryl.bsky.social @robfordmancs.bsky.social

It’s taboo to admit it, but voters bear some responsibility for the frayed state of Britain | Andy Beckett

Thoughtful and thought-provoking piece from @warringfictions.bsky.social on how a Labour government could achieve 'fiscal conservatism with economic radicalism'. #UKPolitics open.substack.com/pub/parables...

As we settle into a New Year I have done a deep dive into the psychology of debt, the metaphor of the household budget, and how this has come to affect social democratic politics in 2026: parables.substack.com/p/understand...

As I pointed out last year: Bit weird the Mayor of London gets completely unmediated access to broadcast whatever message they like on BBC One at midnight! (Even if in this case I agree with the message.) takes.jamesomalley.co.uk/p/odds-and-e...

It's a pretty stark chart. I also think @warringfictions.bsky.social has a good set of proposals on how to face the situation. bsky.app/profile/warr...

This is excellent, a very good read. Time to smash the Ming Vase!

I read this Ian Dunt piece just after reading Chris Clarke's paper, link below. Have you seen it? I would be interested in your take. bsky.app/profile/warr...

There’s a lot of good sense in his. I hope Labour listen.

🚨NEW EPISODE🚨 As Keir Starmer's approval ratings hit a new low, @alastaircampbell2.bsky.social and @rory-stewart.bsky.social unpack what’s behind Labour’s struggles, what the party must do to recover, and whether the shifting political landscape has left them out of time. Link in the replies 👇

Really delighted to hear this discussed on the @therestpolitics.bsky.social this morning, by @alastaircampbell2.bsky.social and @rory-stewart.bsky.social Link to the podcast here: youtu.be/jnVr2hPzgpg?...

Worth a read.

I am just re-upping this, in light of the #Caerphilly by-election result…

It may have started with the coalition making the Lib Dem leader more unpopular than before, but the trend continued after 2015

Striking chart from Chris Clarke of total net satisfaction with all 3 main party leaders: voters have gone off them since 2010 parables.substack.com

1/ I have written a paper/ 4-part blog series called ‘Putting Down the Vase’. It is about populism, trust, and how Labour can stop Reform. The central argument is that, in a climate of low trust, risk-aversion at the centre must be overcome. The full paper can be read here: shorturl.at/jJ8nu