CST: 'we utterly reject his message of hate and division. His so-called support for our community is not welcome or helpful' That was 2021. I hope + anticipate similar sentiments in 2025

I wrote a short piece for the Observer on the attacks in Manchester. observer.co.uk/news/opinion...

@benshimshon.bsky.social and I did a bit of polling on this earlier in the year- quite interesting on who cares most about the broken promise www.politicshome.com/news/article...

BREAKING: “It’s dark” - Dylan calls it.

I signed this today. petition.parliament.uk/petitions/73...

The takeaway: 👉 Accommodating the radical right on immigration doesn’t win back voters. 👉 It alienates the progressive base. 👉 And it raises the salience of the very issue the radical right owns. In short: it’s electoral self-harm.

Longer thread with detailed results here bsky.app/profile/turn...

The Maitliss - Clegg interview is so horrible. combative, unproductive, unenlightening.

🙌

I wrote this in 2013 on the gap between political vision and voter vision. Main changes: twitter is now X; the energy price freeze would be a bigger deal today. archive.progressivebritain.org/2013/12/06/t...

Hello politics/psephology people. Is this still thought of as a good account of turnout dynamics? Do the findings around habit forming and whether you vote in the first three elections of your adult life still hold?

He's done Douglas Murray and now @jamesbloodworth.bsky.social takes down Britain's favourite rightwing grifter. I hope he does Bari Weiss next. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ideas/philos...

Been on hold 60 minutes now. Have moved from 12 to 5 in the queue. I am the sunk cost fallacy.

In our @thinksinsight.bsky.social focus groups, participants found it almost impossible to populate a timeline of the last year. In the survey they could recall almost nothing positive. One big negative

Our @thinksinsight.bsky.social Election Diaries: 1 Year On report (and data tables) is up here: www.thinksinsight.com/reports/the-...

My @NewStatesman.com piece on why Starmer has to take on the “roll the dice” mentality that is driving voters towards Reform UK. www.newstatesman.com/comment/2025...

And here’s a second @politicshome.bsky.social piece based on our @thinksinsight.bsky.social research, looking at how voters are thinking about Reform UK www.politicshome.com/news/article... @zoecrowther.bsky.social

Labour's 1st year: the comms problem Government's most well-known decision is cutting winter fuel, which is also its most unpopular Its least well-known decision is NHS investment, which is its most popular Exc @thinksinsight.bsky.social research for PolHome www.politicshome.com/news/article...

Lots of evidence Sure Start had many lasting beneficial effects so this is an encouraging development

I spent months on this investigation and gathered docs from the UK courts, Land Registry and a French local authority, to show that Raynor and Moth Winn's story is not as they claim. @tortoisemedia.bsky.social @observeruk.bsky.social observer.co.uk/news/nationa...

Looks like we found ‘the Joe Rogan of the left’

Challenging reading for Labour in this @politicshome.bsky.social write up of our @thinksinsight.bsky.social survey to mark one year of Labour. www.politicshome.com/members/arti...

This was a great conversation - thanks for having me @politicshome.bsky.social

Tax code is totally unfair. If you crunch up your cash into little balls and whip it at seagulls, you can't even take a tax deduction.

Islamic Republic of Iran state media says the number of missiles it launched at Qatar matches the number of U.S. bombs dropped on its nuclear facilities. The number was six — but they were very different kinds of weapons and faced very different defenses. A symbolic attack.

Israel has lost a single surveillance drone in their attacks on Iran. Nothing else. How did the Iranians have no functioning air defences when they knew this attack was coming at some point?

Perfect Bluesky, no notes

Amazing: MIT researchers revealed how ChatGPT etc are destroying our brains and booby-trapped the report to expose those who want to use AI to ostensibly summarize the results. t.co/JXeTALBPds

My twin daughters have two older brothers. Today one twin said “my friend’s mummy had a baby and my friend said it was her brother. How can that be if brothers are the bigger ones?”

What I’m unsure about, is whether historically the rise of fascism/dictatorship has always been a bit slapstick. Is that how it gets to creep forwards?

Manifesto pledge: sauerkraut to be sold in smaller jars.

I wrote for the Guardian’s Saturday magazine about my son Max, who changed how I see the world. Took ages. More jokes after the first bit. Thanks Merope Mills for being the most patient and generous editor. www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle...

- migration figures - borrowing figures - chagos - trump-ramaphosa - Israeli embassy staff murders - chemical castration big news day. Any of these could have led most news feeds, right?

More than half of people who voted Labour in July say they are considering switching to the Lib Dems or the Greens at the next general election, according to new @thinksinsight.bsky.social shared with PolHome These voters appear easier to win back than those considering Reform, the poll found

The stickiness of the Reform vote is remarkable, and raises a big strategic Q for Labour '81 per cent of 2024 Reform UK voters said there’s a very high chance they’d vote for the party again in an immediate election' The next highest 'very high' rating is 3%! www.politicshome.com/news/article...

@benshimshon.bsky.social: "The challenge is the more Labour work to shore up the Reform-considering portion of their coalition, the more likely it is that their policies and pronouncements will serve to harden the concerns of those who are considering the Lib Dems and Greens."

Over half of Labour's 2024 vote is considering going to the Lib Dems and the Greens A much smaller share — 25% — is considering Reform UK And Reform switchers appear less willing to return to Labour than Lib Dem / Green switchers Finds exc @thinksinsight.bsky.social polling for PolHome

For their part, Reform UK voters are really quite content with their choices:

The Reform UK threat to the Conservatives is clear.

Labour are in a tight spot. Great coverage of our @thinksinsight.bsky.social Mood of the Nation update from @adampayne26.bsky.social on @politicshome.bsky.social www.politicshome.com/news/article...

Politics is often about appeals to the undecided or swing voter. Except when a mainstream party seeks to appeal to people worried about immigration. At which point it becomes all about the central-case reform voter and how you can never out-Reform Reform…

Letter: As British Jews we can no longer stay silent on the war in Gaza www.ft.com/content/6a50...

I love this so much. “Put your political correctness aside. Different times with different values…” The guy was arrested in 1953 under the obscene publications act…

This may be the greatest ever chart in the history of public opinion studies.

The boost/blow balance is restored

If you’re thinking about how they might move on the tax pledge @benshimshon.bsky.social and I wrote a piece you might find interesting, looking at how much the broken promise is the issue www.politicshome.com/news/article...

Slightly late to this but, if you want to see how good social science research can contextualise & rebut a dubious headline, then check out this excellent report and thread from the Kings Policy institute, showing contra Channel 4's alarmist headlines that, no, young ppl don't want a dictatorship