Anton Strezhnev
@astrezh.bsky.social
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📥 3417
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Assistant Professor, UW-Madison Political Science.
http://www.antonstrezhnev.com
pinned post!
Put together a quick starter pack for political methodologists (broadly defined) who have made their way over to BlueSky. If I've missed folks, please let me know!
go.bsky.app/JBavA7x
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about 1 year ago
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This is why “Quiet Posters” is the best feed.
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1 day ago
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Not looking forward to the eventual diff-in-diff
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1 day ago
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Eryk Salvaggio
3 days ago
Many critical AI resources are written for teachers, rather than students. I wrote this for undergrad students dealing with “AI literacy” in the humanities, hoping to raise more fundamental questions about what it means to write. People have added it to syllabi, so maybe you’ll find it useful, too.
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Human Literacy
Something I Can Tell Students Now That I Am Not Teaching You and I probably both keep hearing that students should be working toward AI literacy. That you should know what to type into prompt windo...
https://mail.cyberneticforests.com/human-literacy/
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Personalist regime commits the mirror-image fallacy
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4 days ago
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Nathan Goldwag
4 days ago
The reason you go scorched-earth on this is the same reason we should have gone scorched-earth on impoundment; you can't stop it from happening, but you absolutely need to stop it from becoming a normal part of politics. You have to draw a line.
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Josh Sternberg
4 days ago
A functioning Congress will have articles of impeachment drafted by the end of the day. Our Congress will just go to social media to basically say “We don’t like this, but what are you gonna do?”
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5 days ago
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We were warned
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6 days ago
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Chatham Harrison dba TRUMP DELENDUS EST
6 days ago
It's a little funny how the successful integration of AI involves essentially adopting animist logic. If you build a new little god & use it to do evil, or to indulge your uncontrolled vices, you cannot expect to keep it controlled & safe. It must be cultivated like a sapling or a baby.
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geoffrey (festively)
6 days ago
andy cohen's "am i excited about 2026? [pregnant pause] yeah. i... yeah. i mean, what's the alternative?" is the realest thing i've seen all night
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Here’s to 2026
youtu.be/4ANBktpgcC4?...
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The Ice Of Boston
YouTube video by Dismemberment Plan - Topic
https://youtu.be/4ANBktpgcC4?si=VGF_UiuYsRO5RA1x
6 days ago
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BeijingPalmer
6 days ago
Weiss believes she is engaged in a game in which the point is self-aggrandizement, and that everyone else is involved in that same game, and she fundamentally cannot *understand* criticism on the grounds of integrity or virtue.
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
7 days ago
Yo what the fuck short form videos are bad Short-Form Videos Degrade Our Capacity to Retain Intentions
arxiv.org/pdf/2302.03714
Ht: HowTown
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Ted Underwood
8 days ago
We used to have a robust, illuminating debate between pro- and anti-AI factions here Now all that’s ignored and forgotten. Bluesky has become a monotonous list of the new apps, games, and social media platforms people produced last night using Claude Code
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Seva
8 days ago
everyone thinks they’re a bayesian until they have to update their priors
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
9 days ago
[Trying this again with the right pictures!] Really pleased with this paper -- posting a new version with a better discussion of the previous literature, some new results on calendar-time portfolios, and some fixed errors!
paulgp.com/papers/finan...
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Allison P. Harris
21 days ago
I’m hiring a predoctoral fellow for the 2026-2027 AY with possibility of a second year. This is a great position for someone interested in pursuing a Ph.D. or who wants more hands-on experience doing research. Please apply/share! Happy to answer questions!
tobin.yale.edu/opportunitie...
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CSAP Predoc: Polarization and Inequality in the U.S. Criminal Legal System
https://tobin.yale.edu/opportunities/csap-predoc-polarization-and-inequality-us-criminal-legal-system
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And the second-order consequences of service delays are huge
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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11 days ago
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Death by Lightning really missed an opportunity with Nick Offerman
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12 days ago
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grand theft eigenvalue 🔆
13 days ago
every claim that "the incentives" support or deter certain kinds of behavior is also a statement about what kinds of external signals the claimant views as rewards or penalties
#linklog
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No, it’s not The Incentives—it’s you
There’s a narrative I find kind of troubling, but that unfortunately seems to be growing more common in science. The core idea is that the mere existence of perverse incentives is a valid and…
https://talyarkoni.org/blog/2018/10/02/no-its-not-the-incentives-its-you/
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Adam L
2 months ago
This essay from
@bschmidt.bsky.social
on how history rejected computational methods, & so "quantitative history" ended up in the social sciences, & "digital humanities" in literature, with no historians doing computational work, is fascinating, & worth a read:
dhdebates.gc.cuny.edu/read/computa...
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Rafe Meager (they/them)
15 days ago
THIS made me realise a lot of what the "high decouplers" do is fail to understand the meta-context in which reasoning/thinking occurs and how that context shapes thinking itself, ie they're actually doing low metacognition.
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Don Moynihan
16 days ago
Sharyn Alfonsi, the veteran CBS news reporter who led the story: “I care too much about this broadcast to watch it be dismantled without a fight.” The reality is that she is much more likely to be fired than Weiss, and that should tell you all you need to know about CBS now.
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16 days ago
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Bari forgot that you need to purge the independent-minded personnel *first* before thinking you can rule by decree.
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16 days ago
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If you have that big of a margin to work with in a district, *why not* take less popular positions that you think are right? You don’t get bonus legislator points if you win by 7 vs win by 13!
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18 days ago
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Drew Stommes
30 days ago
In Defense of the Pre-Test: Valid Inference when Testing Violations of Parallel Trends for Difference-in-Differences (new working paper from Mikhaeil and Harshaw)
arxiv.org/pdf/2510.26470
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Jeff Lazarus
28 days ago
If a discipline isn't science because you can't make point predictions I've got some bad news about meteorology, medicine, pharmacy, biology, and a bunch of other physical sciences.
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Brian Lyman
about 1 month ago
Lawmaking, 2035
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Julia M. Rohrer
about 1 month ago
in psych, whole subfields have decided to simply skirt the issue, so the causal inference happens in the introduction of the next paper that cites the "totally-not-causal-I-swear" paper and of course absolutely interprets it causally 🥲
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The Taboo Against Explicit Causal Inference in Nonexperimental Psychology - Michael P. Grosz, Julia M. Rohrer, Felix Thoemmes, 2020
Causal inference is a central goal of research. However, most psychologists refrain from explicitly addressing causal research questions and avoid drawing causa...
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1745691620921521
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Will Lowe
about 1 month ago
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This hits on a super important point - a large share of survey experiments aren’t actually targeting a causal effect; they’re preference elicitation exercises.
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about 1 month ago
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Dan de Kadt
about 1 month ago
One of the moves needed in deepening and widening the "crediblity revolution" is *de-emphasizing* the methods! I care a lot about causal inference - I use it in my work, I teach it, I try to (unsuccessfully) advance it - but we often focus too much on the mechanics of specific designs.
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Carolina Torreblanca
about 1 month ago
New paper!
@william-dinneen.bsky.social
@guygrossman.bsky.social
Yiqing Xu and I use GPT to code 91k articles from 174 polisci journals (2003–2023)and track research designs, transparency practices, and citations. How has the credibility revolution reshaped the discipline?
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
đź§µ
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G Elliott Morris
about 1 month ago
you cant fool me, upshot bluesky account. i know that the computer program for the "live forecast" is called needle.r. don't lie
bsky.app/profile/upsh...
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On Wisconsin Magazine
about 1 month ago
Cinematheque offers an artfully curated selection of Hollywood classics, international cinema and challenging indie fare—for free!
@uwmadison.bsky.social
's unique program reaches out to moviegoers who crave an alternative to the latest multiplex blockbuster.
onwisconsin.uwalumni.com/the-uws-mini...
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The UW’s Mini Movie Palace | On Wisconsin
Cinematheque offers a world-class filmgoing experience.
https://onwisconsin.uwalumni.com/the-uws-mini-movie-palace/
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apoorva lal
about 1 month ago
New linklog - tiebreaker designs, permutation testing, compressed DML estimation, new bandit library, and a bunch of interesting papers.
apoorvalal.github.io/lalgorithms/...
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2025-12-01
self-promotion Lal and Woodward is a work-in-progress poster on a decision-theoretic motivation for tiebreaker designs, which are a hybrid of RCTs and RDDs.
https://apoorvalal.github.io/lalgorithms/2025-12-01
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alex williams
about 1 month ago
honestly tho, now that we've got "good enough for well-specified coding problems" language models that can run on off-the-shelf macbooks, im officially anti- all of the AI companies except Anthropic, whom i experience as an interesting digital humanities graduate department
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Dan de Kadt
about 1 month ago
I have now read the response by Turnbull-Dugarte and LĂłpez Ortega again with a clearer eye. Multiple claims in this response are untrue or seek to obscure the truth. My interest has always been the accuracy of the scientific record, so I feel compelled to note some of these claims here.
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Dan de Kadt
about 1 month ago
Today I published a replication outlining concerns with "Instrumentally Inclusive" by Turnbull-Dugarte and LĂłpez Ortega (2024, APSR). I document seemingly idiosyncratic and ad hoc choices made by the authors that create a pattern of statistically significant results consistent with their theory.
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An Unofficial Hugo Book Club Blog
about 2 months ago
Canada is releasing a set of stamps celebrating the nation's graphic novelists. These stamps feature Kate Beaton, Jimmy Beaulieu, Guy Delisle, Julie Doucet, Bryan Lee O’Malley and Michael Nicoll Yahgulanaas, alongside some of their famous works.
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Zeddy
about 1 year ago
The Plymouth Rock myth is fed to kids, sure, but for most people Thanksgiving is a fairly nouveau holiday of ad hoc traditions unconnected to any of that. Football, board games, The Last Waltz, Alice's Restaurant, MST3K, hiking, the dog thing, a Broadway infomercial...make it your own.
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David Broockman
about 1 month ago
NEW PAPER w/
@cselmendorf.bsky.social
&
@jkalla.bsky.social
: An under-appreciated reason why voters oppose dense new housing, especially in less-dense neighborhoods: they think it looks ugly and want to prevent that, even in other neighborhoods. Some of what we think is NIMBYism might not be!
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BeijingPalmer
about 1 month ago
the economic success of the U.S. is significantly built on the land grant universities and in particular their excellent agricultural science tradition.
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Erik Voeten
about 2 months ago
The new neo-royalist world order. Stacie Goddard and
@abenewman.bsky.social
explain how cliques are ruling the world. A new
@goodauth.bsky.social
podcast interview with yours truly based on the new
@iojournal.bsky.social
open access article that came out today!
goodauthority.org/news/the-new...
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The new neo-royalist world order
Stacie Goddard and Abe Newman explain how cliques are ruling the world.
https://goodauthority.org/news/the-new-neo-royalist-world-order/
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Ben Recht
about 2 months ago
Highly recommend the collected works of Freedman. Filled with gems.
www.cambridge.org/core/books/s...
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Statistical Models and Causal Inference
Cambridge Core - Statistical Theory and Methods - Statistical Models and Causal Inference
https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/statistical-models-and-causal-inference/7CE8D4957FF6E9615AAAC4128FA8246E
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
about 2 months ago
Update your syllabus and stay on the frontier - it will increase your students’ wages. Epic work by my colleagues
@barbarabiasi.com
and
@profsongma.bsky.social
#linkoftheday
www.barbarabiasi.com/uploads/1/0/...
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whet moser
about 2 months ago
as president i will blast pavement’s “brighten the corners” on fridays
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Dominique Baker
about 2 months ago
In between things I've been checking in on the emails that mention "university" and uhh did we all know about this connection?
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