This is why “Quiet Posters” is the best feed.

Not looking forward to the eventual diff-in-diff

Many critical AI resources are written for teachers, rather than students. I wrote this for undergrad students dealing with “AI literacy” in the humanities, hoping to raise more fundamental questions about what it means to write. People have added it to syllabi, so maybe you’ll find it useful, too.

Personalist regime commits the mirror-image fallacy

The reason you go scorched-earth on this is the same reason we should have gone scorched-earth on impoundment; you can't stop it from happening, but you absolutely need to stop it from becoming a normal part of politics. You have to draw a line.

A functioning Congress will have articles of impeachment drafted by the end of the day. Our Congress will just go to social media to basically say “We don’t like this, but what are you gonna do?”

We were warned

It's a little funny how the successful integration of AI involves essentially adopting animist logic. If you build a new little god & use it to do evil, or to indulge your uncontrolled vices, you cannot expect to keep it controlled & safe. It must be cultivated like a sapling or a baby.

andy cohen's "am i excited about 2026? [pregnant pause] yeah. i... yeah. i mean, what's the alternative?" is the realest thing i've seen all night

Here’s to 2026 youtu.be/4ANBktpgcC4?...

Weiss believes she is engaged in a game in which the point is self-aggrandizement, and that everyone else is involved in that same game, and she fundamentally cannot *understand* criticism on the grounds of integrity or virtue.

Yo what the fuck short form videos are bad Short-Form Videos Degrade Our Capacity to Retain Intentions arxiv.org/pdf/2302.03714 Ht: HowTown

We used to have a robust, illuminating debate between pro- and anti-AI factions here Now all that’s ignored and forgotten. Bluesky has become a monotonous list of the new apps, games, and social media platforms people produced last night using Claude Code

everyone thinks they’re a bayesian until they have to update their priors

[Trying this again with the right pictures!] Really pleased with this paper -- posting a new version with a better discussion of the previous literature, some new results on calendar-time portfolios, and some fixed errors! paulgp.com/papers/finan...

I’m hiring a predoctoral fellow for the 2026-2027 AY with possibility of a second year. This is a great position for someone interested in pursuing a Ph.D. or who wants more hands-on experience doing research. Please apply/share! Happy to answer questions! tobin.yale.edu/opportunitie...

And the second-order consequences of service delays are huge www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Death by Lightning really missed an opportunity with Nick Offerman

every claim that "the incentives" support or deter certain kinds of behavior is also a statement about what kinds of external signals the claimant views as rewards or penalties #linklog

This essay from @bschmidt.bsky.social on how history rejected computational methods, & so "quantitative history" ended up in the social sciences, & "digital humanities" in literature, with no historians doing computational work, is fascinating, & worth a read: dhdebates.gc.cuny.edu/read/computa...

THIS made me realise a lot of what the "high decouplers" do is fail to understand the meta-context in which reasoning/thinking occurs and how that context shapes thinking itself, ie they're actually doing low metacognition.

Sharyn Alfonsi, the veteran CBS news reporter who led the story: “I care too much about this broadcast to watch it be dismantled without a fight.” The reality is that she is much more likely to be fired than Weiss, and that should tell you all you need to know about CBS now.

Bari forgot that you need to purge the independent-minded personnel *first* before thinking you can rule by decree.

If you have that big of a margin to work with in a district, *why not* take less popular positions that you think are right? You don’t get bonus legislator points if you win by 7 vs win by 13!

In Defense of the Pre-Test: Valid Inference when Testing Violations of Parallel Trends for Difference-in-Differences (new working paper from Mikhaeil and Harshaw) arxiv.org/pdf/2510.26470

If a discipline isn't science because you can't make point predictions I've got some bad news about meteorology, medicine, pharmacy, biology, and a bunch of other physical sciences.

Lawmaking, 2035

in psych, whole subfields have decided to simply skirt the issue, so the causal inference happens in the introduction of the next paper that cites the "totally-not-causal-I-swear" paper and of course absolutely interprets it causally 🥲

This hits on a super important point - a large share of survey experiments aren’t actually targeting a causal effect; they’re preference elicitation exercises.

One of the moves needed in deepening and widening the "crediblity revolution" is *de-emphasizing* the methods! I care a lot about causal inference - I use it in my work, I teach it, I try to (unsuccessfully) advance it - but we often focus too much on the mechanics of specific designs.

New paper! @william-dinneen.bsky.social @guygrossman.bsky.social Yiqing Xu and I use GPT to code 91k articles from 174 polisci journals (2003–2023)and track research designs, transparency practices, and citations. How has the credibility revolution reshaped the discipline? doi.org/10.31235/osf... 🧵

you cant fool me, upshot bluesky account. i know that the computer program for the "live forecast" is called needle.r. don't lie bsky.app/profile/upsh...

Cinematheque offers an artfully curated selection of Hollywood classics, international cinema and challenging indie fare—for free! @uwmadison.bsky.social 's unique program reaches out to moviegoers who crave an alternative to the latest multiplex blockbuster. onwisconsin.uwalumni.com/the-uws-mini...

New linklog - tiebreaker designs, permutation testing, compressed DML estimation, new bandit library, and a bunch of interesting papers. apoorvalal.github.io/lalgorithms/...

honestly tho, now that we've got "good enough for well-specified coding problems" language models that can run on off-the-shelf macbooks, im officially anti- all of the AI companies except Anthropic, whom i experience as an interesting digital humanities graduate department

I have now read the response by Turnbull-Dugarte and López Ortega again with a clearer eye. Multiple claims in this response are untrue or seek to obscure the truth. My interest has always been the accuracy of the scientific record, so I feel compelled to note some of these claims here.

Today I published a replication outlining concerns with "Instrumentally Inclusive" by Turnbull-Dugarte and López Ortega (2024, APSR). I document seemingly idiosyncratic and ad hoc choices made by the authors that create a pattern of statistically significant results consistent with their theory.

Canada is releasing a set of stamps celebrating the nation's graphic novelists. These stamps feature Kate Beaton, Jimmy Beaulieu, Guy Delisle, Julie Doucet, Bryan Lee O’Malley and Michael Nicoll Yahgulanaas, alongside some of their famous works.

The Plymouth Rock myth is fed to kids, sure, but for most people Thanksgiving is a fairly nouveau holiday of ad hoc traditions unconnected to any of that. Football, board games, The Last Waltz, Alice's Restaurant, MST3K, hiking, the dog thing, a Broadway infomercial...make it your own.

NEW PAPER w/ @cselmendorf.bsky.social & @jkalla.bsky.social: An under-appreciated reason why voters oppose dense new housing, especially in less-dense neighborhoods: they think it looks ugly and want to prevent that, even in other neighborhoods. Some of what we think is NIMBYism might not be!

the economic success of the U.S. is significantly built on the land grant universities and in particular their excellent agricultural science tradition.

The new neo-royalist world order. Stacie Goddard and @abenewman.bsky.social explain how cliques are ruling the world. A new @goodauth.bsky.social podcast interview with yours truly based on the new @iojournal.bsky.social open access article that came out today! goodauthority.org/news/the-new...

Highly recommend the collected works of Freedman. Filled with gems. www.cambridge.org/core/books/s...

Update your syllabus and stay on the frontier - it will increase your students’ wages. Epic work by my colleagues @barbarabiasi.com and @profsongma.bsky.social #linkoftheday www.barbarabiasi.com/uploads/1/0/...

as president i will blast pavement’s “brighten the corners” on fridays

In between things I've been checking in on the emails that mention "university" and uhh did we all know about this connection?