Anxiety about *change* to health care has been a key factor in several consequential elections: 1994 (Clinton plan), 2010 (ACA), and (to some degree) 2018 . Even if people are unhappy w/ health care costs and choices, change is terrifying. GOP setting itself up on the wrong side of this dynamic. 1/3

The "new coalition" that shifted to Trump in 2024 -- Asian/Hispanic, younger (especially young men), less engaged -- appears to be transient, unlike Trump's gains among WWC men in 2016.

NYC isn't the country... But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged More below 6/6

Plenty of talk Elaine Luria will mount a comeback Spanberger won current version of VA-2 by around 7% Even without lines changing, Luria would have a good chance But if VA redistricting happens, could see bluer parts of Norfolk swapped in for redder rural areas

Fascinating!

Breaking: Mike Johnson just announced that he'll swear in Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva on Wednesday at 4pm ET.

The Status Interview – Or How To Write Up a Senate Purge List talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-s...

This is really something. Trump/GOP efforts to rig midterms running into serious trouble

The thing to understand about this is that this catastrophe in the UK has redounded to the political benefit of the very same people and political movement that pushed for it! Extremely perverse.

Alas by protecting potentially vulnerable Senators, Dems have almost no one to deliver that (or any) positive message. They gave themselves a situation in which the entire party is *following the lead of Congressional Democrats* in bashing the deal...and therefore Congressional Democrats.

I'm on record saying Schumer's not up to the moment but "controlling his caucus" is just a ludicrous standard to hold a legislative leader to, particularly and especially a U.S. Senate caucus leader. Those groups are held together with spit and bubble gum, if they're held together at all.

"Control" is not in the lexicon of a Senate floor leader in describing his relationship with party colleagues. Never has been. Not even LBJ. But PR is something that a leader is expected to manage well. Schumer rose over Durbin for this reason, but he doesn't get a passing grade in this episode.

Dunno how Collins was feeling (tho she negotiated the appropriations bills) but otherwise Senate R's pretty insulated from political consequences of shutdown. Vulnerable House R's not insulated but also out of town.

Matt makes a critical point. The pain of the shutdown was seriously ramping up while pressure on Republicans had yet to really build. They were losing in polls but not by a margin that would cause them to abandon Trump or Thune. Very skeptical Dems would have won much more by holding out longer.

This seems like the most straightforward and also basically accurate message.

JUST IN: Katie Wilson is now ahead of Mayor Bruce Harrell in the Seattle mayoral race. Stay tuned for details on today's count.

Democrats over-performed during the shutdown, polled well, and won elections. However, an ACA deal, nuclear Senate, or impoundment rules were a big stretch, at best, and mostly not feasible. More shutdown and "trying harder" can't change Republican majorities. joshhuder.substack.com/p/an-entirel...

Off-year elections shouldn't be thought of as predictions of midterms *because things can change a lot in a year.* What they are useful for is a reality check for the other evidence of what's happening now, and the results were consistent with the polls and with the huge protests.

Can't be certain of the full story for each of the eight Dems. I'm more certain that Schumer prefers to let us believe that he orchestrated or at least allowed the outcome than that he failed to keep his party united.

NEW: Dems easily flipped the sheriff's office in Pennsylvania's Bucks County, a big swing county in the Philly suburbs. So? The incumbent GOP sheriff had contracted with ICE. His Dem challenger promised to end the contract. Now he wants other swing-state Dems to look at his victory as a lesson:

I count 8/20 oldest House Dems as retiring or likely to be ousted by redistricting. Axios says Hoyer is next.

My entirely too early assessment of the Senate deal. Still a lot of unknowns but like this shutdown, this deal was a little surprising. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...

Indies pretty divided....though this was 2 weeks ago.

Election results showed a nationalized thermostatic backlash against the party of the president, similar to 1st Trump term but with even smaller candidate & issue effects & regardless of turnout.

Centrist pundits seem to have a different view of Senate cave than do centrist senators.

Who knows how much this affects anything, but very few senators face general election risk that > primary risk next year (Collins, maybe Ossoff). Appointed senators from OH & FL must worry about trouble from right. Cornyn more threatened by Paxton.

Perceptive thread that helps me understand current situation better. Thanks!

Interesting leverage.

A post that summarizes a lot of the problems Virginia Republicans had this election

The long Democratic march through the suburban subdivisions continues....

In major upset, the New Jersey Democrats have flipped a seat in #LD25, a Trump+1 district in Morris County. Despite no major help from the state Democrats, Marisa Sweeney will become the first Democrat to represent this district in over 30 years.

In her landslide statewide win on Tuesday, Abigail Spanberger was able to win Virginia Beach by 11 points over Winsome Earle-Sears. It's the best Democratic gubernatorial performance in Virginia's largest city in 60 years!

CONTINETTI: “.. The off-year Democratic wave flooded Republican safe harbors. Democrats flipped at least 13 seats in Virginia’s House of Delegates. .. New Jersey Democrats will enjoy their largest Assembly majority in 52 years.” @wsj.com www.wsj.com/opinion/trum...

The GOP has a 100-80 majority in the GA House of Representatives.

In Georgia’s statewide races on Tuesday, the two Democratic candidates won 8 counties where, in 2024, Kamala Harris had received UNDER 40%. via: almanacofamericanpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-...

The Death of Stalin (2017) is hopefully timely for many reasons but among them it reminds us that the whole "democracies think in four-year timelines, autocracies think in thousand-year timelines" thing is such horseshit

scheduled the weekly roundup for tomorrow morning! www.gelliottmorris.com/p/mamdanis-y...

If Dems were to gain 6 VA Senate seats in 2027, that chamber would be 27D-13R, to go along with a 64D-36R (or better?) HoD & a Dem Gov/LG/AG, plus potentially a 9D-2R US House delegation & 2 Dem US Senators. Wow. t.co/UoVIpKyu8L h/t @drewsav.bsky.social @uncrewed.bsky.social

Virginia also shows signs of Latino shift (see Manassas/Manassas Park) Trump drag in both states, with high disapproval number and majorities saying his immigration actions have gone too far (59% in NJ + 77% in VA!) NJ Latinos prefer next governor not cooperate on immigration Read more below 3/3

The man who ended USAID is the world's first trillionaire

The White House keeps unilaterally taking entirely voluntary actions which it openly says are intended to inflict more pain and then they're I guess surprised - along with most of the DC media - about why they seem to be taking the blame for the shutdown.

Fits notion that many Latino Trump voters were infrequent, less engaged voters.

Passaic County precinct analysis shows strong correlation between % Latino and swing Some Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats, but swing also due to compositional change Latino communities saw more churn in electorate — it looks like many Trump voters stayed home, and new voters broke D 2/3

Latino voters swung hard to Democrats this week, largely erasing GOP inroads in '24 Trump first Republican win presidential vote in Passaic, NJ (70% Latino) — on Tuesday, the city flipped back Nearby Paterson and Prospect Park also saw big swings, giving Sherrill better margins than Biden '20 1/3

Fair proxies for the left in its entirety: - a person who says something goofy on social media - a person who shoots at a political figure - a theoretical person who does something goofy or bad Not a fair proxy for the right: - a GOP president who commands the loyalty of millions of Americans

It’s unbelievable that we’re in the longest shutdown in HISTORY… and Donald Trump is still too scared of Democrats to work out a deal and prevent huge premium increases for millions.

This is probably the best read. By putting out a scaled back ask in the midst of the pain of the shutdown, he’s giving the people with potential to waver in his caucus a place to land that’s not just at the republicans’ demands, and demonstrating that republicans won’t accept even a smaller ask.

Important reminder that no trend is predetermined to continue either way Dems made gains this year with diverse voters Doesn’t mean it’s going to continue But also doesn’t mean GOP 2024 gains will continue either Every election is unique

Slamming their hands onto the stove as fast as they can