Virginia does not have party registration But L2 models party ID based on voter history and demographics This looks roughly in line with 2025, maybe tad redder Obviously don’t know how people are voting Likely No is doing better than Earle-Sears IMO but hard to know how much

Collins, Manchin, and Murkowski among rare pols with a personal brand these days. And they did it old fashioned way: moderation, showing up, constituent service, taking care of interest group.

The "rally 'round the flag" effect involves members of the other party backing "our president" in time of crisis. Not seen here.

NEW: Democrats overwhelmingly say US made wrong decision in using military force in Iran (88%). 71% of Republicans say decision was the correct one. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2026/03/25/americans-broadly-disapprove-of-u-s-military-action-in-iran/#trumps-handling-of-the-conflict-with-iran

Quinnipiac Poll: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - the situation with Iran? Approve 34% Disapprove 59% poll.qu.edu/poll-release...

Anything can happen, but basically where I’m at too Still lot of range in single digits 2017 was technically single digits, but 9 point Dem win was blue wave 2021 was 2 point GOP win was red wave 2025 style landslide is more of an anomaly in Virginia

Mail ballots are keeping Yes in the early vote game at this initial stage They make up roughly 1/3 of all ballots so far Probably going roughly 2-1 Yes Over 400K have been sent out mainly through permanent absentee list Will become smaller part of early vote towards the end

👀 Reuters/Ipsos poll: Trump’s approval rating on the economy has sunk to 29%. Lower than Biden’s lowest rating. Far lower than Trump’s first-term lowest.

A lot of what Trump is doing is incredibly unpopular w the average American. The Republican Party is heading for a wipeout in Nov. Yet Trump—and those around him—keep doubling down on the most toxic parts of his presidency to appeal to extremist audiences on social media. The made-for-X presidency.

Year over year ratings: ABC World News Tonight: ⬆️ 8% NBC Nightly News: ⬆️ 6% CBS Evening News, Bari Weiss Edition: ⬇️ 7% Via @oliverdarcy.bsky.social www.status.news/p/cbs-news-r...

24% undecided, who probably lean Dem, which should probably put at least one of the front runners in the runoff. But Dems could really use one of these candidates to break out. Some visible endorsements could help. Or Thurmond, Yee etc quitting.

A Dem-sponsored poll of California's governor race shows the two Republicans ahead, at 16% and 14%. Eight Democrats follow: Swalwell, Porter, Steyer are at 10%, & everyone else below that. (Reminder this'll go to a 'top 2' runoff, regardless of party. cadem.org/wp-content/u...)

he definitely has the Fox News needle permanently hanging out of his mainline

It’s not “polling” if part of the sample is generated responses from a large language model. Delete this

New data out today from @guttmacher.org found that the *total number of abortions* in the U.S. increased slightly between 2024 and 2025 — from 1,124,000  to 1,126,000 — despite mounting bans, while the *ways* people ended their pregnancies shifted dramatically. 🧵 www.guttmacher.org/report/full-...

New tonight: Senators are increasingly optimistic they will soon reach a deal to fund most of DHS including TSA after long lines snarled U.S. airports.

I can't recall a time when more talented reporters and writers on movies and culture who have real skill and knowledge are struggling to find a foothold. We live in an "Everyone's an expert" era. But everyone isn't. Editors: Please take a chance on folks you haven't tried before. Read their clips!

It turns out that our 3 branches of government are all Linda from Arizona.

The Trump administration continues its project of hastening climate change at any cost

Shorter Elon: My son is named after deep white supremacist lore and is a dick in restaurants. I am proud of this.

The goal of the war is to reopen the strait that closed because of the war. Do I have that right

It's a problem when Supreme Court justices get their worldview from Newsmax.

It's also pretty clear that the Republican-appointed justices do not understand a great deal about how elections are actually administered. Their questions (and especially hypotheticals) are built on weird, paranoid fantasies that do not align with reality. bsky.app/profile/wing...

SO many questions from the Republican-appointed justices so far having little or nothing to do with the law—they're venting their evident frustrations about modern election laws that broadly authorize mail voting and fretting that they're spoiling elections with distrust and fraud. Really bad!

Never understood "authenticity" in politics. Couldn't you be authentically bad? Couldn't "authenticity" be act? Many upper-crusters cultivated "authentic" blue collar persona. GWB "authentic," Gore "stiff" -- how did that work out? What if your "authentic" self is wonky & introverted?

This is a steal for Meidas Touch, @macfarlanenews.bsky.social is a really good reporter.

Some very disturbing questions from the Republican-appointed justices in today's Supreme Court arguments—definitely several votes to strike down laws in 30 states which count mail ballots that arrive shortly after Election Day, as long as they're cast by Election Day. Not what I was hoping to hear.

this stuff is not popular and Trump cannot magick it into being popular

People need to start thinking about 2006 as the reference point for the upcoming election elections

So, the easiest way to achieve the main goal of the war would have been not to start the war

The "Creator Economy" is remarkably meaningless crap.

This 100% makes sense when you understand the median voters have concerns like this: www.nytimes.com/2019/08/01/o...

Governor Abigail Spanberger is a "yes" on redistricting! Check out her statement on why she's voting in favor of fair maps on April 21.

Breaking news: Robert Mueller, former FBI director who later served as special counsel investigating ties between President Trump’s 2016 presidential election campaign and Russia, died Friday. He was 81. https://wapo.st/4dB3pBK

Not once does this story mention that offering a federal job in exchange for a political favor is a crime

Ah — the margin in this special election stood at 25% on Tuesday, but it now sits at 19%. Trump won it by 15%.

I know it’s pointless saying this but this is an open and shut case for impeachment.

The level of organizing & engagement happening in communities all across the US on a daily basis is beyond anything I have seen in my lifetime. (This is not counting actual protests, whose volume these days is also unprecedented).

The Trump administration has approved the acquisition of 9NEWS' parent company, TEGNA, by Fox31's parent company, Nexstar. Nexstar issued a statement praising President Trump, who says the deal will "help knock out the Fake News." Nexstar has declared itself "the anti-fake news"

Bluer areas of Virginia are picking-up voting: As of Monday, votes cast in the 5-GOP held districts were 60% of all votes cast so far (vs 40% in 6 Dem-held districts). As of today, the gap has shrunk, with 55% in those GOP districts (Most of votes cast since Monday have been in the Dem districts.)

This is going to be the GOAT of didn’t age well takes

The final mail ballots were added for Virginia’s HD-98 Margin narrowed to 19% GOP win Still a GOP over performance compared to 2024 About 5% so not as dramatic as Election Night Disproportionate late mail bc of shorter early voting for special Handful of provisionals remain

The Houthis have reduced shipping traffic in the Red Sea by like 90% despite US interventions and Iran is significantly more sophisticated.

I’m going to regret wading into this discourse, but: I’m not even convinced a lot of people (not everyone!) throwing around “Zionist” know what they mean by it, I’m certainly not convinced everyone using it means the same thing and I generally think it’s best to just spell out what you mean.

WHO WRITES THESE HEADLINES WHO APPROVES THESE PODCAST GUESTS CARL IS A RACIST

we have to stop this anti-Semitic freak shit before it festers further. It is not fucking acceptable

I find ‘does Israel have a right to exist’ a sort of pointless question. It does exist. It’s a fully functional state with a military, its own currency, and millions of citizens. It’s an actually existing place and not a hypothetical idea.

this shit is no joke. there was already almost no snow and then it was in the 70s above treeline in the Rockies today. the Lake Powell power intakes very well might be sucking air by August