Santa Cruz County, CA Vote Before May 26th: 8,937 🔵 – 3,521 🔴, D+43 May 26th - May 30th: 9,351 🔵 – 2,159 🔴, D+62 Ballots in California have been getting more blue as we get closer to election day. This could continue into the "trail" of ballots that report after Tuesday.

5/31 Forecast Update Overall chamber odds remained largely stable over the last several days, as gains and losses across individual races mostly offset one another. 🔴 U.S. Senate: 51.1% (no change since 5/27) 🔵 U.S. House: 79.0% (-0.3% since 5/27)

Following recent controversy involving Graham Platner, his chances against Susan Collins slipped slightly in today's forecast update as Kalshi markets tightened. Our Legacy forecast was mostly unchanged. Complete forecast: ME-SEN 🔵 Lean D (68.1% chance) Expected margin: D+3.6

Over 3.3 million Californians have cast ballots for the June primary. Returns as of May 30 per @politicaldata.bsky.social : 🔵 DEM: 1,540,171 🔴 GOP: 1,126,628 ⚪ OTH: 693,445 % Turnout by Age 18-34: 5% 35-49: 8% 50-64: 15% 65+: 30%

2028 Democratic presidential primary polling average (since Feb 18): 🔵 Harris: 22.6% (-7.2) 🟠 Newsom: 16.9% (-4.5) 🟡 Buttigieg: 13.6% (+5.4) 🟣 Ocasio-Cortez: 11.3% (+3.1)

✨ NEW — Build Your Own California Gubernatorial Primary 🔧 Will the GOP be locked out of November? What would it take for Mahan to break through? Our interactive by @theoelections.bsky.social lets you tweak support by demographic group and see how the race changes. votehub.com/2026/05/29/b...

BREAKING — Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry has signed the new 5R-1D congressional map into law. The map will be used for the 2026 midterms. 🔴 +1 GOP 🔵 -1 DEM

South Carolina 🔴 2020 President: R+12 🔴 2022 Senate: R+26 🔴 2024 President: R+18 🔵 2026 Early Voting: D+63

BREAKING — The Louisiana Senate has passed a new 5R-1D congressional map. It now heads to Gov. Jeff Landry’s desk for signature.

BREAKING — The Louisiana House of Representatives passes a new 5R-1D congressional map by a 66-35 vote. It now heads to the Louisiana Senate.

California returned ballots, by county Partisanship, with shift vs. registration San Francisco: 🔵+68 (🔴+10) Santa Cruz: 🔵+45 (🔴+15) Sonoma: 🔵+34 (🔴+17) Santa Clara: 🔵+32 (🔴+17) Merced: 🔴+3 (🔴+17) Butte: 🔴+22 (🔴+16)

NEW from Zoe Auld: How are America’s newest voters registering? Our analysis of voter registration data across multiple states finds that the youngest Gen Z voters are overwhelmingly nonpartisan, though household and state trends shape party registration. votehub.com/2026/05/28/h...

VoteHub projects Bo French to win the Republican primary runoff for Texas Railroad Commissioner.

Can James Talarico actually win Texas? After Ken Paxton’s decisive runoff win, VoteHub’s 2026 forecast moved TX-SEN from Tilt R to Tossup. Zachary Donnini breaks down why Texas is competitive, and what it would take for Democrats to make history. votehub.com/2026/05/27/c...

5/27 Forecast Update Democratic odds rose in the U.S. Senate today, driven by Ken Paxton's defeat of John Cornyn in the Texas Republican U.S. Senate runoff last night. 🔴 U.S. Senate: 51.1% (-0.8% since 5/26) 🔵 U.S. House: 79.3% (-0.1% since 5/26)

After Ken Paxton’s win in the Texas Republican U.S. Senate runoff, VoteHub’s general election forecast between Paxton and Democrat James Talarico has shifted to Tossup for the first time this morning.

VoteHub projects Johnny Garcia to win the Democratic primary runoff for Texas U.S. House District 35.

VoteHub projects Carlos De La Cruz to win the Republican primary runoff for Texas U.S. House District 35.

VoteHub projects Christian Menefee to win the Democratic primary runoff for Texas U.S. House District 18.

Texas U.S. Senate Republican Primary 63% Reported: 🔴 Ken Paxton – 567,049 (63.0%) 🔴 John Cornyn (Inc.) – 333,175 (37.0%)

VoteHub projects Mayes Middleton to win the Republican primary runoff for Texas Attorney General.

VoteHub projects Alex Mealer to win the Republican primary runoff for Texas U.S. House District 9.

Initial Election Day ballots are now reporting in Rockwall County in the Texas Railroad Commissioner GOP primary runoff. Incumbent Jim Wright is running about 8 points stronger than he did in the early vote so far, similar to the first round.

Texas U.S. House District 35 Republican Primary 64% Reported: 🔴 Carlos De La Cruz – 10,720 (54.5%) 🔴 John Lujan – 8,953 (45.5%) Votes from @DecisionDeskHQ

VoteHub projects Ken Paxton to win the Republican primary runoff for Texas U.S. Senate.

VoteHub projects Nathan Johnson to win the Democratic primary runoff for Texas Attorney General.

VoteHub projects Vikki Goodwin to win the Democratic primary runoff for Texas Lieutenant Governor.

Texas U.S. House District 35 Republican Primary 42% Reported: 🔴 John Lujan – 6,652 (51.5%) 🔴 Carlos De La Cruz – 6,266 (48.5%) Votes from @DecisionDeskHQ

Texas U.S. Senate Republican Primary 47% Reported: 🔴 Ken Paxton – 419,833 (62.6%) 🔴 John Cornyn (Inc.) – 250,440 (37.4%)

Texas U.S. House District 35 Democratic Primary: 🔵 Johnny Garcia – 5,725 (59.6%) 🔵 Maureen Galindo – 3,879 (40.4%)

Texas Railroad Commissioner Republican Primary 48% Reported: 🔴 Bo French – 322,146 (54.0%) 🔴 Jim Wright (Inc.) – 274,080 (46.0%) Votes from @DecisionDeskHQ

Texas U.S. Senate Republican Primary 38% Reported: 🔴 Ken Paxton – 339,785 (62.1%) 🔴 John Cornyn (Inc.) – 207,285 (37.9%) Paxton could run better in the Election Day votes, which are yet to report.

VoteHub projects Tom Sell to win the Republican primary runoff for Texas U.S. House District 19.

Texas U.S. Senate Republican Primary Nueces County Early Vote: 🔴 Ken Paxton – 5,072 (66.3%) 🔴 John Cornyn (Inc.) – 2,579 (33.7%) This county was Cornyn +12.3 in the first round, so this is a 44.9 point shift toward Paxton.

Texas U.S. Senate Republican Primary Jefferson County Early Vote: 🔴 Ken Paxton – 3,063 (67.1%) 🔴 John Cornyn (Inc.) – 1,504 (32.9%) This vote was Cornyn +16 in the first round, so this is a 50 point shift toward Paxton.

Texas U.S. Senate Republican Primary Denton County Early Vote: 🔴 Ken Paxton – 25,370 (62.4%) 🔴 John Cornyn (Inc.) – 15,261 (37.6%) This county was Cornyn +4.4 in the first round, so this is a 29.2 point shift toward Paxton.

Texas U.S. Senate Republican Primary Tarrant County Early Vote: 🔴 Ken Paxton – 36,977 (58.9%) 🔴 John Cornyn (Inc.) – 25,808 (41.1%) This vote was Cornyn +10 in the first round, so this is a 28 point shift toward Paxton.

The first polls have closed in Texas. Initial results in the Texas U.S. Senate Republican Primary are expected shortly.

Build your own TX-18 projection for today’s Menefee vs. Green Democratic runoff. Adjust turnout, demographics, and first-round vote redistribution. Results are broken out across all 241 precincts in Harris and Fort Bend. votehub.com/2026/05/26/b...

Build your own TX-SEN projection for today’s Cornyn vs. Paxton Republican runoff. Adjust turnout, demographics, geography, and the reaction to Trump’s endorsement, then reallocate Wesley Hunt’s first-round vote. Results are broken out across all 254 Texas counties. votehub.com/2026/05/25/b...

NEWS: South Carolina’s current 6R-1D congressional map is now set to remain in place for 2026 after the State Senate voted 26-18 against taking up redistricting this session. That likely preserves Democrats’ hold on their lone House seat in the state.

Ellis Bates breaks down what to watch in tonight’s Texas runoffs, headlined by a high-profile Republican Senate battle between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton. votehub.com/2026/05/26/t...

TONIGHT — VoteHub is tracking runoff elections in Texas. The marquee contest is the Republican runoff for U.S. Senate, where Attorney General Ken Paxton is hoping Donald Trump’s backing will help him defeat incumbent Senator John Cornyn.

BREAKING: A three-judge panel has found Alabama's 2023 map as intentionally discriminatory, issuing a preliminary injunction blocking its use in the 2026 midterms. The map flipped a blue-leaning seat to a red-leaning seat.

Despite a blue electorate and a large Democratic turnout advantage, conservatives held all three Georgia Supreme Court seats this year. Our deep dive from Ellis Bates shows how nonpartisan elections scrambled voting patterns and let incumbents win. votehub.com/2026/05/25/g...

VoteHub projects David Smith to win the Republican primary for Oregon U.S. Senate.

Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen into the 30s in our polling average over the last month, with his net approval now at -18.6. For comparison, FiveThirtyEight’s net approval on this date in each presidency: Trump (1st term): -10.4 Biden: -13.3

NEWS — The South Carolina Senate is continuing its weekend marathon debate over the proposed 7R–0D congressional map. Senators voted 26–18 to invoke cloture on 2nd reading. The bill must still clear a 3rd reading before a final vote.

National Committee Finance Update 🔴 RNC: Cash on hand: $123.9M Debt: $0 🔵 DNC: Cash on hand: $14.4M Debt: $17.5M

BREAKING: Tulsi Gabbard is resigning as Director of National Intelligence, effective June 30. She cited her husband's battle with a rare form of bone cancer.