Municipality level data is now available for Union County! Mikie Sherrill carried this urban-suburban county by 35 points, which is a 11 point improvement over Kamala Harris in 2024.

🚨 BREAKING -- Utah court rules against legislature’s congressional map and enacts Plaintiff’s map. The new map will be in place for the 2026 elections. 🔵 Dem gain of +1 seat.

Abigail Spanberger carried Virginia's 1st Congressional District by 2.2 points. This is a 7 point improvement over Kamala Harris who lost it by roughly 5 points. This district is currently held by Republican Rob Wittman.

2025 New Jersey Gubernatorial Shift from the 2024 US Senate Race: 🔵 Kim 54.9%→ Sherrill 56.9% 🔴 Bashaw 45.1% → Ciattarelli 43.1% Shift: Sherrill +4

Democrats hold a 4 point lead over Republicans in the 2026 generic ballot average. 🔵 Democratic - 46.2% 🔴 Republican - 42.1%

Hi Bluesky 👋 While our primary social media presence is still the old bird app, we wanted to share here what we’ve been posting there. This past week, we created detailed interactive maps that populated in real time for elections in NJ, VA, NYC, CA, and GA.

Trump’s net approval reached a new low this week, hovering near -11 in our average. Two-week change: 🔻 -2.2 Last two months: 🔻 -3.6

Mikie Sherrill is polling at a new high of 49.6% in our average of polls for the New Jersey Governor race. 🔵 Mikie Sherrill 49.6% 🔴 Jack Ciattarelli 44.5% Only 2 more days until Election Day.

🚨 Trump’s net approval has reached a new low in his second term, slipping to -10 in our average.

Ohio's proposed map is now live in our mid-cycle Redistricting Tracker. Current Districts (RVI Lean): 🔵 189 D | 🔴 205 R 🟡 41 Highly competitive Proposed/Enacted: 🔵 189 D | 🔴 210 R (+5) 🟡 36 Highly competitive (-5) 👉 218 seats are needed for a majority.

Ohio's state legislative leaders have agreed on a new, compromise congressional map. Current delegation: 🔴 10 R 🔵 5 D Measured by relative voting index: Current districts: 🔴 11 R 🔵 4 D Proposed: 🔴 12 R 🔵 3 D Projected change: 🔴 +1 or +2 Republican seats

Support for Proposition 50 continues to climb in our polling average. 🟢 Yes 55.9% 🔴 No 38.5%

Mikie Sherrill leads Jack Ciattarelli by about 6 points in our New Jersey polling average, a steady advantage since Labor Day.

NEW -- Per @politico.com, Republicans lack the votes in the Indiana legislature to pass new congressional maps despite a White House pressure campaign. The plan was projected to add 1–2 GOP seats; if accurate, the delegation remains 🔴 7 R, 🔵 2 D.

Abigail Spanberger leads Winsome Earle-Sears by about 7 points in our Virginia Governor polling average, a steady advantage that has barely budged in recent months. 👉 votehub.com/polls

As the government shutdown enters its fourth week and in the wake of the Gaza Peace Plan, President Trump is seeing a slight increase in his net approval, now 7.5 points underwater. Two-week change: ▲ +1.5 Last six months: 🔻 -4.1

VoteHub is tracking Virginia’s Attorney General race, where the gap has narrowed sharply in recent weeks. 🔵 Jay Jones 46.3% 🔴 Jason Miyares 45.9% Our live average has it among the tightest races of this cycle. 👉 votehub.com/polls

🏄‍♂️ VoteHub is now tracking a time-weighted average of California Prop. 50 polls. 🟢 Yes 52.2% 🔴 No 36.4% 👉 votehub.com/polls

Republicans’ mid-cycle redistricting push is narrowing the field of competitive seats, potentially complicating Democrats’ bid to reclaim the U.S. House. 6 months ago: Kalshi market odds: 🔵 84% Our polling average: 🔵 +0.4 Today: Market odds: 🔵 64% Our average: 🔵 +2.9

Democrats lead Republicans by 3 points in the generic ballot average for the 2026 congressional elections. Current average: 🔵 D +2.9 4-month change: 🟡 Even

President Trump’s approval remains stuck near 44%, roughly 9 points below disapproval. Two-week change: 🔻 -0.5 Last six months: 🔻 -5.7

2028 Dem Primary (10/5/25): 🔵 Harris: 23.1% 🟡 Newsom: 20.8% 🟢 Buttigieg: 9.9% 🟣 AOC: 7.9%

Democrats maintain a nearly 4 point lead in the generic ballot average for the 2026 congressional elections. Current average: 🔵 D +3.8 Change from last 4 months: 🔵 D +1.6

New Jersey 🍕🛣️ Vote-by-mail update Total: 138,398 (+27,245 since 10/02) Ballots by party registration: 🔵 Democratic 62.3% | 86,200 ballots 🔴 Republican 23.8% | 32,881 ballots ⚪️ Unaffiliated 14.0% | 19,317 ballots Percent of ballots returned: 🔴 18.6% 🔵 16.6% ⚪️ 9.3

New Jersey 🍕🛣️ Vote-by-mail update Total: 61,258 (+32,177 since 9/29) Ballots by party registration: 🔵 Democratic 62.1% | 38,026 ballots 🔴 Republican 24.8% | 15,167 ballots ⚪️ Unaffiliated 13.2% | 8,065 ballots Percent of ballots returned: 🔴 8.6% 🔵 7.3% ⚪️ 3.9%

🚨 Trump's approval hits record low for 2nd term: -10. Change from last month: 🔻 -1.7 Last 4 months: 🔻 -5.4

Very cool to see our partners over at Kalshi now leading in global prediction market volume. Reminder that updates to our averages are tradable. Check them out below 👇 Trump approval 👉 kalshi.com/markets/kxvo... Vance favorability 👉 kalshi.com/markets/kxvo...

New Jersey 🛣️ Mail voting update Total: 15,506 (+7,517 since 9/25) Ballots cast by party registration: 🔵 Democratic 63.8% | 9,890 votes (+4,738) 🔴 Republican 23.6% | 3,664 votes (+1,826) ⚪️ Other 12.6% | 1,952 votes (+953) Pct of ballots returned: 🔴 2.1% 🔵 1.9% ⚪️ 1.0%

Earlier this week, we mapped a special election in southern Arizona, where @adelitaforcongress.bsky.social was elected to the seat represented by her late father.

2028 Dem Primary (9/22/25): 🔵 Harris: 23.5% 🟡 Newsom: 21.0% 🟢 Buttigieg: 10.3% 🟣 AOC: 8.1%

🌎 In 2024, the greater Atlanta area's shift underran the rest of the country, continuing an overall leftward trend for the region. The trend is powered by changing demographics and a broader suburban drift away from Republicans.

🚨 We’ve given polling averages on VoteHub a big refresh. They’re cleaner, easier to explore, and now polls are plotted right on the averages. You can filter, tap, and interact with them however you like.

🔵 Our polling average shows Gov. Gavin Newsom surging in presidential primary polling, as his push for redistricting in California raises his profile among Democrats.

Big news! VoteHub is partnering with @Kalshi through the midterms. Together, we’re combining political analysis and data with event contracts to give people a clearer view of what’s next in politics. 🧵 Here’s what this means.

Yesterday, we unveiled our 2024 interactive national precinct map. It’s the most ambitious project we’ve ever undertaken. Explore results, shifts from 2020 and 2016, vote density in 3D, and estimates of votes by demographic group for all 50 states+DC. 🧵

Five days after the election, final mail has been added to the tally in VA-11. Current results: 🔵 Walkinshaw (D) - 75.1% (112,686) 🔴 Whitson (R) - 24.7% (37,110) This is now a 17 point overperformance for Democrats vs. 2024. Some provisional ballots are still outstanding.

We are tracking how JD Vance’s favorability rating is changing over time. It currently sits at -5.4. Vance’s net favorability is a couple points higher than Trump’s net approval. Both measures have increased over the last month by about the same margin (2 points).

Presidential Approval Update While Trump’s net approval is unchanged over 2 months, his rating rose 2+ pts in the last month and 0.5 since last week. It remains 7.6 pts underwater. Change from Jul 13: -7.6 → -7.6 (🟰) From Aug 10*: -9.8 → -7.6 (➕2.2) *Second-term low

Republicans have narrowed the gap in the generic ballot polling average in recent weeks. Democrats, however, still maintain a lead over Republicans by 2.3 points as of this morning. Change from Aug 8: 🔻 -2.0 (toward Rs) 👉 votehub.com/polls

🚨🚨 The final draft map from the California state legislature is now public. Our partisanship index (2024/2020 presidential results composite) shows: 🔵 48 Democratic seats (+5) 🔴 4 Republican seats (-5)

At least 51 Texas Democrats just fled the state to block a GOP gerrymander vote. Each will be fined $500 a day, adding up to $6 million by March 2026. 🧵California could gerrymander on its own, completely eliminating the current structural Republican advantage.

Donald Trump’s net approval is now at its lowest point of his second term. Polls conducted entirely after the DOJ’s Epstein memo average -13 net approval, a drop of around 4 points from previous polls. votehub.com/polls

They haven’t posted it here but @votehub.com made an incredible graphic of the NYC primary showing results with population by precinct on the Z axis designed to look like a building map of NYC. One of my favorite political maps ever.

Oklahoma HD 71 Special Election With 100% reporting: 🔵 Amanda Clinton (D) - 84.7% (1,803) 🔴 Beverly Atteberry (R) - 15.3% (326) This district was Harris +19, so this is a 50 point overperformance for Democrats from 2024.

U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill has won the Democratic nomination for New Jersey Governor. With around a third of the expected vote in, she leads Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop 34% to 17%.

Our precinct map is now live for the New Jersey Democratic governor primary. 🗺️ Explore results by precinct as they come in: votehub.com/2025/06/10/n...

Florida HD 32 Special Election With 100% reporting: 🔴 Brian Hodgers - 55.4% (14,994) 🔵 Juan Hinojosa - 44.6% (12,088) This district was Trump +20 in 2024.

Florida SD 19 Special Election With 100% reporting: 🔴 Debbie Mayfield - 54.5% (37,421) 🔵 Vance Ahrens - 45.6% (31,302) This is a 10 point overperformance for Democrats from 2024, when the district was Trump +19.5.

30 minutes until polls close in New Jersey! ⏰ Tonight we're mapping the NJ Democratic primary at a precinct level where available. See results and background on the race on our website: votehub.com/2025/06/10/n...

In special elections across the country, Democrats are outperforming their 2024 benchmarks, driven by asymmetrical turnout and a national environment shifting in their favor.​ Read our full breakdown of last night’s results in Iowa and Minnesota. ⬇️