Donald Trump's approval is lower than ever in his second term, now at 41%.

NEWS — No Republican will appear on the ballot in the New Mexico U.S. Senate race following the disqualification of the GOP candidate, per @abqjournal.bsky.social. Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján is set to run unopposed in November should he win his primary.

🚨 Happy Super Bowl weekend! We analyzed NFL players’ party affiliation, producing the first-ever breakdown by team. 🏈

TEXAS 🤠 U.S. Senate Hypothetical General Election Polling Talarico vs. Paxton 🆕 2/2 (NRSC): 🔵 Talarico +3 1/12 (Emerson): 🟡 Tied 11/17 (Ragnar): 🟡 Tied Crockett vs. Paxton 🆕 2/2 (NRSC): 🔴 Paxton +1 1/12 (Emerson): 🟡 Tied 11/26 (Change): 🔴 Paxton +8

🚨 NEW from VoteHub: the Trump Score 🚨 Trump's influence over Congress in 2025 was massive. @tsyang27 shows who followed and who defied. In the tradition of FiveThirtyEight’s presidential agreement projects. 🧵

NEWS—The Maryland House has passed the proposed 8-0 congressional map by a vote of 99-37. It now heads to the Maryland Senate.

🚨 Texas SD-9 results — the surprising contest where Democrats flipped a seat and overperformed Harris by 32 points — are now available on our site. Explore interactive, precinct-level data with 3D views and shifts from the 2024 election. ⬇️ votehub.com/2026_txsd9_s...

Donald Trump's net favorability is lower than ever in his second term, with unfavorables in particular rising after a month of politically unpopular setbacks.

Democrats have opened up a 6-point lead in our generic ballot polling average, their largest margin over Republicans since we began tracking.

Democratic chances in key Senate races are surging (change in Kalshi odds since Nov 4): 🔵 GA: 78% (+7) 🔵 MI: 77% (=) 🔵 NC: 75% (+15) 🟡 ME: 64% (+8) 🟡 AK: 45% (+20) 🟡 OH: 40% (+5) 👈 Majority 🟡 IA: 35% (+8) 🟡 TX: 34% (+17) 🟡 NE: 32%* (*Osborn+DEM; +15) 🔴 FL: 14% (+4)

🚨 OHIO 🏟️ U.S. Senate Q4 2025 Fundraising 🔵 Sherrod Brown (D) – $7.3 million 🔴 Jon Husted (R) – $1.5 million Cash on hand 🔵 Brown – $9.9M 🔴 Husted – $5.96M

MAINE 🦞 U.S. Senate Q4 2025 Fundraising Totals 🔵 Graham Platner (D) - $4.7 million 🔵 Janet Mills (D) - $2.7 million 🔴 Susan Collins (R) - $2.2 million Sources: Axios, Portland Press-Herald, Collins campaign

2028 Democratic Primaries 🫏 A DNC committee voted today to advance 12 states’ early window bids. One state will be chosen from each region: 👉 Midwest: IA, IL, MI 👉 South: GA, NC, SC, TN, VA 👉 West: NV, NM 👉 East: DE, NH A fifth state may be chosen from any region.

🚨 NEW — Our first Senate polling average of 2026 is out! Jasmine Crockett currently leads James Talarico 40.4% to 38.1% in the hotly contested race to become the Democratic nominee in Texas.

ALASKA 🐟 U.S. Senate General Election Polls 1/17 - 🔵 Peltola +2 (PPP) 1/11 - 🔵 Peltola +2 (ASR) 11/13 - 🔵 DEM +4 (Tyson Group) 10/23 - 🔵 Peltola +1 (DFP) 10/15 - 🔵 Peltola +2 (ASR)

We've added the latest 2030 apportionment estimates from the American Redistricting Project to our Electoral Map Builder. Build your own map and explore how paths to 270 could change after the next census.

WISCONSIN 🧀 State Legislature Q3+Q4 2025 Fundraising Totals Assembly Campaign Committees 🔴 Republican - $4.5 million 🔵 Democratic - $1.1 million GOP: $5.2 million cash on hand DEM: $241k cash on hand Source: Wisconsin Public Radio

WISCONSIN 🧀 State Legislature Q3+Q4 2025 Fundraising Totals Senate Campaign Committees 🔵 Democratic - $772k 🔴 Republican - $307k Source: Wisconsin Public Radio

🚨 NEW—Off-year turnout hit a 20-year high in 2025. Following the same method as their 2023 analysis at 538, Tia Yang and Mary Radcliffe analyzed data from PA, VA, and NJ to see how off-year electorates have evolved in recent cycles. Full breakdown below 👇 votehub.com/2026/01/27/o...

NEWS — DC’s U.S. House Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton, 88, has ended her bid for a 19th term and will retire.

Democrats lead Republicans in our 2026 generic ballot polling average by more than 5 points. Current lead: 🔵 D +5.2 Since Nov 4, 2025: 🔵 D +1.1

Polling on Abolishing ICE Sep 2024 (Civiqs): 🔴 Oppose +47 Jul 2025 (YouGov): 🔴 Oppose +18 Jan 2026 (Civiqs): 🔴 Oppose +6 Jan 2026 (YouGov): 🟢 Support +3

NEW HAMPSHIRE 🪨 U.S. Senate Q4 2025 Fundraising Totals 🔵 Chris Pappas (D) - $2.3 million 🔴 John Sununu (R) - $1.7 million 🔴 Scott Brown (R) - $500k Pappas: $3.2 million cash on hand Sununu: Cash on hand not disclosed Brown: $900k cash on hand

🚨 NEW — Republicans approve plan for a presidential‑style convention ahead of 2026 midterms.

This year’s governor races are set to be more consequential than ever, with mid-decade redistricting raising the stakes across the map. Research Director Austin Park breaks down what to watch in his full 2026 preview. votehub.com/2026/01/23/a...

Trump’s approval has fallen to a record low, with net approval now at -14.4 and just 41.2% approving — a nearly 7-point drop in three months.

🚨 BREAKING — U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar files paperwork to run for Governor of Minnesota.

VoteHub has rebuilt its polling averages from the ground up. They’re stable, transparent, and empirically grounded — and this year, we’ll be publishing averages for every federal race and key primary. votehub.com/2026/01/22/o...

INDIANA 🏎️ Secretary of State 2025 Fundraising Totals 🔵 Beau Bayh (D) - $1.8 million 🔴 Diego Morales (R) - $345k Bayh: $1.6 million cash on hand Morales: $1.2 million cash on hand

NEWS — Trump plans to campaign in the 2026 midterms like he’s on the ballot, turning control of Congress into a referendum on his presidency. Source: @nypost.com

🚨 NEW — A New York judge has struck down NY-11, a GOP-leaning Brooklyn–Staten Island seat, and ordered it redrawn. The ruling opens the door for Democrats to potentially squeeze out another House seat.

NEW per CNN — Senator Mark Kelly says he is seriously considering running for president in 2028.

🚨 BREAKING — Alabama Republicans advance a bill to allow special primaries if SCOTUS weakens VRA Section 2 after filing deadlines, setting up a path to redraw maps to 7–0 GOP and flip two seats from blue to red in 2026.

Among NFL players, defensive and skill-position players tend to lean the most Democratic, while special teams players are the most Republican. Quarterbacks fall somewhere in between the two.

🚨 BREAKING — Maryland’s Redistricting Advisory Commission has recommended a new 8-0 congressional map and sent it to Wes Moore.

Using public voter files, Peter Lutz takes a first-of-its-kind look at partisan registration among pro athletes by league.

Coral Gables, FL vs. Bloomington, IN Population: 49.2k | 79.2k 2024: 🔴 Trump +1 | 🔵 Harris +59 2020: 🔵 Biden +7 | 🔵 Biden +61 2016: 🔵 Clinton +14 | 🔵 Clinton +57

After falling just 5 votes short in the House in 1979, the bill establishing MLK Jr. Day as a federal holiday finally passed Congress in 1983. It cleared the House 338-90 and the Senate 78-22 before being signed into law by President Reagan. We mapped the Senate vote by state.

MLK Jr. Favorability (Gallup poll): 1966: 🟢 33% Favorable, 🔴 63% Unfavorable 2011: 🟢 94% Favorable, 🔴 4% Unfavorable

MICHIGAN 🖐️ U.S. Senate A highly competitive three-way Democratic primary is taking shape. Odds to win primary per Kalshi Dec 7 vs. Today: 🔵 Mallory McMorrow - 48% → 44% 🔵 Haley Stevens - 16% → 30% 🔵 Abdul El-Sayed - 31% → 28% General election odds: 🔵 D 76% → 75%

Five states officially request to go first in the 2028 Democratic primary: - Iowa 🌽 - Nevada 🎰 - New Hampshire 🪨 - North Carolina 🌲 - South Carolina 🌙 Final DNC decision expected Aug 2026. Source: @nytimes.com

For only the second time since 1994, Democrats have a trifecta in Virginia, controlling the governorship and both chambers of the General Assembly. Governor: 🔵 Spanberger (D) Senate: 🔵 21 D 🔴 19 R House: 🔵 64 D 🔴 36 R

Following Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger’s swearing-in today, Democrats now control 24 of 50 governor’s mansions nationwide.

Former Rep. Gwen Graham (D) is considering a 2026 run in FL-02, seeking to reclaim her former seat. The district voted Trump +18 in 2024; incumbent Republican Rep. Neal Dunn is retiring.

My quick dive into the NJ-11 primary field to replace Mikie Sherrill as we are only 3 weeks away

TEXAS 🤠 U.S. Senate Odds to win Democratic primary per Kalshi Dec 2 vs. Today: 🔵 Jasmine Crockett - 50% → 18% 🔵 James Talarico - 35% → 81% General election odds: 🔴 R 79% → 75%

🗓️ Today is the deadline for states seeking early slots in the 2028 Democratic primary. States vying to go first: - Nevada 🎰 - New Hampshire 🪨 - South Carolina 🌙 GA, IA, and MI are seeking early slots; NC and VA may apply. DNC decision expected Aug 2026. Source: @politico.com

FLORIDA ☀️ GOP Gubernatorial candidate James Fishback has filed an amended 2025 finance report. Before: $950.36 After: $18,635 Updated 2025 Fundraising Totals: 🔴 Donalds - $45.3 million 🔴 Renner - $5.3 million 🔵 Jolly - $3 million 🔵 Demings - $365,145 🔴 Fishback - $18,635

🚨 NEW — Virginia Senate passes amendment to redraw congressional map by a 21-18 vote. It will now go to a statewide referendum, likely to be scheduled in April.

GEORGIA 🍑 U.S. Senate Latest Reported Cash-on-Hand: 🔵 Jon Ossoff (D) - $25 million 🔴 Buddy Carter (R) - $4 million 🔴 Mike Collins (R) - $2.3 million 🔴 Derek Dooley (R) - $1.7 million Ossoff raised $9.9m in Q4 '25 alone. No Q4 numbers yet from the GOP field.