BeshearStan
@beshearstan.bsky.social
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Fan of the best American governor!
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The thing about most generic ballot averages showing a D+4-5 lead is that many independents are still "undecided" in their responses. Once you push Independents, the polls turn to D+9-10 pretty fast. (Credit to The0_o7 on Twitter for the graphs and averages)
21 days ago
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Oh we are getting Blexas and even Blorida
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about 6 hours ago
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Mikhail Gorbaechev
about 8 hours ago
I think an obvious solution is to not only pack the Court, but to take advantage of Congress's plenary authority over Congressional elections to nationally gerrymander for Democrats, while offering a constitutional amendment to prohibit partisan gerrymandering and guaranteeing the right to vote.
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If Democrats actually want to fight back after the VRA ruling, they should split DC into 8 wards and admit them as 8 states. Thatâs 16 more Senators. Thatâs a supermajority to codify pro-democracy reform into the Constitution and end the era of minority rule forever. No more half-measures.
about 6 hours ago
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Stephen Wolf
about 9 hours ago
Wisconsin's Supreme Court may replace the 6-2 GOP map with a fairer one, but Dems could win full control this fall and do it themselves. A new map could give Dems 2 more blue seats & also keep District 3 as competitive as it currently is. Interactive map+data
davesredistricting.org/join/d78e8b9...
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BeshearStan
Here's NC if/when we get a trifecta and favorable court. This holds up for almost any election besides some 2016 downballot races (which is centuries ago in politics lol)
about 10 hours ago
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Once dems get trifectas in MN, GA, AZ, PA, and MI in 2026/2028, they need to start pushing for these maps to really hurt the GOP in swing states.
about 10 hours ago
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BeshearStan
Here's Washington, Colorado, Maryland, and Oregon
about 10 hours ago
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Daniel Gilmore
about 9 hours ago
An impt thing to remember is that today comes towards the end rather than the beginning of the redistricting wars for Rs. Theyre looking for one last bite off an apple that they mostly ate up in 2010 & 2012. Looking forward, what GA, TX, & NC, & FL do in Nov will tell us the landscape going forward.
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BeshearStan
Here's Minnesota for good measure :)
about 10 hours ago
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BeshearStan
Now that the worst has come and Section 2 of the VRA is gutted, Dem trifectas in safe blue states need to start fighting back and push these maps immediately
about 10 hours ago
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Now that the worst has come and Section 2 of the VRA is gutted, Dem trifectas in safe blue states need to start fighting back and push these maps immediately
about 10 hours ago
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Cindy Hyde-Smith has been slacking and Colom is a solid opponent. She will win but the margins will be interesting
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1 day ago
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BeshearStan
Gabe OrtĂz
1 day ago
ââSurvivors are here sitting with members of Congress, still fighting to be heard, still pushing for real accountability, while many of the powerful figures connected to these systems remain just out of reach, unable to acknowledge survivors face to face,â Giuffreâs brother Sky Roberts said.â
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Virginia Giuffreâs brother criticizes King Charles III for not meeting survivors of Epstein abuse
Sky Roberts said survivors âstill fighting to be heardâ after king, whose brother Andrew was accused of assault by Giuffre, did not meet with them
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/28/virginia-giuffre-epstein-king-charles
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G Elliott Morris
1 day ago
The GOP doesnât have a midterm turnout problem. It has a Trump problem. âRepublicans just need to get their voters off the sidelinesâ is a much more comforting story than âvoters saw the Trump presidency and decided they don't want it." But the data is clear.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-28...
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No, higher turnout wonât fix the GOPâs Trump problem
The GOP is manufacturing its own base turnout fantasy to avoid acknowledging the real reason it's struggling in 2026: Voters don't like Trump's agenda!
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-28-no-turnout-wont-save-republicans-this-fall
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BeshearStan
Kevin M. Kruse
1 day ago
First of all, Jimmy Kimmel did not make a joke about assassinating the president; he made a joke about him being near death, which he clearly is. Second, this infected thumb is one of the biggest, crudest bullies in an administration ruled by them and he does not get to define "the decent thing"
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The Paxton/Cornyn primary are really brutal right now so thatâs why theyâre low. I expect this to narrow up but its a better start then Beto 2018
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1 day ago
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So when do yall think it happens. Epistemiccrisis on tiktok and IG said it was gonna happen 4 days ago but unfortunately it hasnât. I think next month or this summer but we will see
2 days ago
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Not a great answer but saying loudly that you will impeach instead of being quiet would increase R turnout. We need the biggest blue wave possible
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2 days ago
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-10 points due to Assmussen bias so Trump is at 39-58 approval
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2 days ago
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Doesnât sound like someone who can just cancel elections
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3 days ago
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Canât wait for Senator Osborn, Senator Wahls, Senator Brown, and Senator Bodnar
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3 days ago
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Ainât no wayâŚ
3 days ago
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no likes is insane
add a skeleton here at some point
4 days ago
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BeshearStan
Tim Onion
4 days ago
Weâve become way too inured to the constant violence because of all of the people in power who revel in it. What a joyless, artless, sexless, rudderless country we became so fast.
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Another trump/press assassination attempt happened while I was gone?
4 days ago
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Platner was always leagues better then Mills
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4 days ago
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Saw a TikTok that summarizes the Northeast and its as great as you expect
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4 days ago
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What ideology is this?
4 days ago
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Not the leopards eating my face!!
5 days ago
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Anyone who knows ball couldâve predicted this a mile away. Many dems donât like the party but will die before voting GOP or not voting
add a skeleton here at some point
5 days ago
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BeshearStan
G Elliott Morris
5 days ago
New from us over at 50+1: The Democrats' favorability rating gap vs the Republicans â which drove so much hand-wringing and many news cycles in 2025 â has basically reverted back to normal
blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/democrats-...
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Democrats have nearly closed their party favorability gap
Plus, 46 percent of Americans say non-citizen voting is widespread (itâs not)
https://blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/democrats-have-nearly-closed-their
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BeshearStan
G Elliott Morris
5 days ago
GOP pollsters on Twitter are saying the VA referendum shows Republicans can hold the House in November. IMO this is 100% pure uncut hopium (a) gerrymandering is very unpopular, more unpopular than Trump! (b) status quo bias dominates referendums (c) turnout patterns won't be predictive of Nov
20
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Can we speed it up!?
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5 days ago
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BeshearStan
Graham Platner for Senate
6 days ago
There are a thousand reasons Susan Collins doesn't deserve a sixth term in the Senate. But this, alone, is enough to disqualify her from ever holding public office again.
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This guy is literally Thaddeus from Invincible. He was a former enemy himself and knows their tactics, which is why he wants them gone
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6 days ago
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remember when Obama said he wasnât running in 2008 after the 2004 election? Ossoff will change his mind
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6 days ago
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BeshearStan
James Medlock
15 days ago
DOGE turbocharged the deficit.
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/wea...
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Great. Now tell me how you can win over 5% more of racially polarized whites that have voted R since the 1960s for [REDACTED] reasons
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7 days ago
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Democrats having a better shot of flipping Kansas Senate then Republicans have in NH Senate is such a truth nuke
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7 days ago
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BeshearStan
G Elliott Morris
7 days ago
The Economist's new House and Senate midterms forecasting models get their polling data from our API at FiftyPlusOne. Building something that needs raw polling data as an input? Check out our data services at
fiftyplusone.news/downloads
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Reminder that Janet Mills would be 80 in 2028 and could pass away in a critical election year as opposed to Platner whos half her age
7 days ago
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Shes literally lebron
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7 days ago
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BeshearStan
Mikhail Gorbaechev
8 days ago
No we should definitely tilt the playing field against the fascist party. There's a pretty strong case that we should de facto ban the Republican Party.
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Third one is something. My goat fell for the slopulist crap
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8 days ago
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Balding anime gooner Christian Heiens is crying that prosperous NOVA decided to show whos boss and voted for fair maps in VA. GIVE ME THEM TEARS
8 days ago
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BeshearStan
BREAKING: The Virginia GOP has escaped to Southwest VA under Generalissimo Jason Miyares following a massive defeat by Comrade Spanberger's Red Guard in Charlottesville and Southeast Virginia. Spanberger has said that she and Jay Jones will push forward to "make all of Virginia woke."
8 days ago
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BREAKING: The Virginia GOP has escaped to Southwest VA under Generalissimo Jason Miyares following a massive defeat by Comrade Spanberger's Red Guard in Charlottesville and Southeast Virginia. Spanberger has said that she and Jay Jones will push forward to "make all of Virginia woke."
8 days ago
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You can see the Loudoun County overperformance from space
8 days ago
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BeshearStan
VoteHub
8 days ago
We are getting a lot of fully reported counties outside of Northern Virginia and YES is running okay, about 2 points ahead of what we would expect in a tied race. But Loudoun County is fully complete and YES is outrunning it's goal by 8 points. And Prince Williams AB/EV is great for YES.
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As today is the VA redistricting referendum, hereâs my final prediction đ˘YES: 54.0% đ´NO: 46.0% (Yes +8)
8 days ago
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