While I do think Dems should be the big tent party, I actually think they already hold the majority position of most issues (ex. Abortion, healthcare, climate policy). The issue is peoples perception of Dems, and I think the key comes down to how Dem candidates market themselves.

AZ-7, which makes up most of Southern Arizona, shifted right between 5-10 points from 2020-2024. With the special election tonight showing about a 20 point shift left, it's going to be interesting to see what other areas similar to AZ-7 (majority Hispanic) will do in 2026. (Via our 100K districts)

Nogales, AZ 95% Hispanic Presidential 2024: D+38 AZ-7 Special Election: D+70 32 Point Shift Left!

One of the majority Hispanic precincts in South Tucson in AZ-7: 2024 Presidential: D+50 2025 Special House D+67 (so far)

We got a bunch of new polls today, so here's where Trump's net approval rating stands: Today: -11.27% One Week Ago: -11.31% One Month Ago: -12.10% Three Months Ago: -9.38% Six Months Ago: -3.72%

Who are the 4% of people that answered that having a Monarchy is a good thing, do they know nothing about the history of the US (It's probably statistically insignificant but still)

Election season is coming up soon! Join our Discord for all the latest news and info about the elections in CA, NJ, NY, and VA! discord.com/invite/Yqh4E...

IMO, every pollster, when releasing their polls, should put their crosstabs out as well. To me, crosstabs are the polling equivalent of showing your work. In other words, I want to see how you got the answer you did, to determine its merit.

What if I start taking even more Tylenol bc it’ll make me better understand election maps ?

We need to know: which looks better, the left one or the right one?

when DRA updates with a new preloaded election dataset

One thing that slightly concerns me about polling is the weight towards the 2024 electorate. Most polls try to get around a Trump +1 sample, and per our average, polls are about a D+1 sample. That being said, it's possible that the 2026 electorate may be way more than D+1!

Check out our Tabula America Index, featuring our 100K Districts! The map is a basic overview of each district's demographics, including population density, ethnicity, and education. Here's the Atlanta Metro, just as an example. Check it out here: electioncord.com/demographics/

I was informed he was the anti-war president

AtlasIntel's latest poll has black people approving of Trump more than any other ethnicity... 🤔 It's almost like they might not be the perfect pollsters. Mind you, someone like YouGov is very consistent with African Americans, 25% would be the max approval there

One of the biggest swings I can remember, let's see if this shows on other polls (that arent RMG Research) President Trump approval (AP-NORC): Disapprove 60% (+7) Approve 39% (-6)

I really find this divide to be interesting, I'll call it the Safety/Social divide. For Republicans, they value safety issues (immigration, crime) way more than Dems, while Dems value social issues (civil rights & liberties) more than Republicans.

Here's the Bachelor's attainment rate of the Bay Area, using our 100K Districts. I also put the two major universities in the area, Stanford and Cal, just as a point of reference. Check out the full map here: electioncord.com/education-ra...

Here's our 100K Districts, divided into Region + Ethnicity. Generally, Southerners of all races tended to be the most conservative, while NE'ers tended to be the most liberal. Note that the 2024 presidential numbers are the raw average of all 100K districts in that category.

In that new @yougov.co.uk poll, they asked a bunch of questions about Democrats/Republicans, and certain words to describe them. Republicans were generally seen as more corrupt, evil, and extreme and less compassionate. Dems were seen as more out of touch and weak.

NEW ARTICLE OUT: In our latest piece by @corncobanalysis.bsky.social, he goes over the stark divide growing in the Trump era between richer, more educated voters, and poorer, less educated voters, and some theories as to why this is the case. LINK: electioncord.com/the-electora...

Here's some crosstabs from our Trump approval polling average, with the averages from 2/1/25, today, and the difference. Trump has declined the most with: Black (-20.8%) 18-29 (-15.7%) Asian (-13.2%) Trump has only improved with: High School or Less (+2.5%) <$50K (+0.9%)

Yup.

Central North Carolina on our Tabula America Index. This is where Dems make North Carolina competitive, thanks to racking up huge margins in these areas, mostly due to the huge amount of educated people that live in these areas. LINK: electioncord.com/demographics/

Here's some crosstabs from our Trump approval polling average, with the averages from 2/1/25, today, and the difference. Trump has declined the most with: Black (-20.8%) 18-29 (-15.7%) Asian (-13.2%) Trump has only improved with: High School or Less (+2.5%) <$50K (+0.9%)

I find this split to be pretty interesting. I took an average of 4 YouGov polls, and combined answers of the question "What is your most important issue?" into three categories. Broadly speaking, Dems care more about social issues, while Reps care more about safety issues. (1/2)

On electioncord.com, we recently updated our Estimated Trump Approval Map! It takes crosstabs of most of the polls from August, and applies it to our 100K Districts to get a good overview of who and where is approving of Trump. LINK: electioncord.com/estimated-tr...

TBH, if there's one thing I've learned from going from crosstabs of a ton of polls, I think Republican aligned adults are just more paranoid on average. Just as one example, on the last Fox News Poll, 10% of Republican adults said crime was their biggest issue, compared to only 4% for Dems.

Trumps Net Approval Rating... Today: -9.4% 1 Week Ago: -10.2% 1 Month Ago: -11% 3 Months Ago: -10.6% 6 Months Ago: -1.6% Check out all of our polling averages here: electioncord.com/poll-tracker/

Another Percentile graph, this time based on ethnicity. Basically, the more Democratic an ElectionCord 100K district voted in 2024, the more diverse it was.

Trying a new way to show the how the 100K District Project can be used, I split up the districts into 100 different percentiles, and for 20-24 turnout shift anyways, shows a pretty clear trend. The more Democratic a district was, the more the turnout shifted downward.

TBH, even if I have no proof for this, I blame a lot of the deep political divisions in the US on social media. I think making it anonymous, combined with a ton of bots/fake accounts makes misinformation rampant, debates more nasty, and politics more extreme...

I really didn't want to talk about this, but I think we all can learn from this. I did not agree often with Kirk, but this was a horrible tragedy. I think we have to learn from this by starting a healthy dialogue with each other about our differences, that's how we heal our divisions.

Nice to know that at least 5% of Americans actually do not know our Constitution

Here's Manhattan by religion, according to PRRI's Religion Census. The three biggest groups, unsurprisingly, are Protestants, Unaffiliated, and Protestants. However, Jews make up 7% of Manhattan, well above the US rate of about 2%.

The Las Vegas Metro area, using ElectionCord's Tabula America Index and 100K Districts. The biggest thing working against Democrats here is the lack of educated areas, only in the outer metro. Interestingly, there's a lot of no-majority districts, all of them being white/Latino.

My free take of the day: You don't need to overanalyze every little thing when it comes to politics and elections! There's a certain point in which you get diminishing returns, and honestly, it's best to just come up with general conclusions and move on.

SCORIGAMI lets go

A lot of polls ask about the direction of the country, and since Trump got inaugurated, it's gone from bad to worse. On February 1st, about 50% of people thought the US was going in the wrong direction. Now? 57% of people think that, and it's been a pretty steady drop.

Here's Chicagoland, using ElectionCord's Tabula America Index and 100K Districts. Broadly speaking, Chicago has two parts, a northern, white, mostly educated side, and a southern Black and Latino side. You'll never guess where Trump wants to send the National Guard..

On electioncord.com, we have all kinds of fun maps using our 100K Districts! The 100K districts, in case you didn't know, is a system of dividing the US into (roughly) districts of 100,000 people, in order to better understand demographic voting patterns. (1/3)

Poverty Rate vs Education Rate. This is probably the single most indicative chart of what gets people out of poverty: a good college education. It's very hard for people to get out of poverty though, because you need a lot of money to get a good college education.

Kind of crazy how much of a correlation there is between presidential turnout in 2024, and bachelors degree rate. Areas with high educations tend to also have high turnout rates, while areas with low turnout rates tend to not be super educated... Coincidence?

Here are the Party ID numbers of religious groups according to Pew Research. The most Dem. groups are: Atheists (82% D) Agnostics (76% D) Black Protestants (72% D) The Most Rep. groups are: Mormons (73% R) Evangelical Protestant (70% R) Mainline Protestant (51% R)

It's pretty funny you can see the county borders in Clarke County, GA, only by looking at election info. Every single block group voted for Harris, while all the block groups surrounding it are Trump country. Makes sense though, as the University of Georgia is here.

On electioncord.com, we currently have maps for: 2016, 2020, and 2024 Election Data Education Levels Ethnicity and Ancestry Income and Poverty Trump's Estimated Approval Tabula America Index ALL with ElectionCord's 100K Districts. What should we add next?

Here's the Orlando Metro area, using the Tabula America Index, and ElectionCord's 100K Districts. Orlando is probably the most liberal metro in Florida, having more white educated and Hispanic areas than Tampa, but also having a couple Black districts.

Make sure to check this out, and if you have any suggestions, let us know!

NEW: We rebuilt the Estimated Trump Approval Map, it's now updated with all the polls from August, and it will be updated every month going forward. You'll see that Trump has fallen the most in Hispanic areas, and gained the most with uh, no one. LINK: electioncord.com/estimated-tr...