"Did you hear about the NYC DSA candidate's tweets? Like she was—" You wake up. You are not online. It is the year 2026, and you are the German World Cup team goalie. You and Ecuador are tied and oh fuck you spent too much time arguing with the people in your head and Ecuador just took the lead

i have in my possession data that shows Dems are losing service workers

From our (WIP) Graphing Program, Tabula America Charta, you can see there was a pretty big correlation between 2020-2024 Presidential Shifts, and how many votes an area had. Basically, the lower turnout an area was, the more it swung to Trump. If this gets 100 likes, we'll release it TONIGHT.

Republican sponsored poll by Cygnal of Iowa Gov 47.7-43.6 D+4 Senate 44.2-46 R+1.8 GCB 44.1-47.5 R+3.4 AG 39-43.6 R+4.6

why so many takes about Direct Air Capture lately?

Zohran vs. Cuomo by income exit polls (not perfect, but does track with precinct data) less than $30K: Cuomo +6 $30-50K: Zohran +13 $51-100K: Zohran +20 $100-200K: Zohran +18 $200-300K: Zohran +5 $300K+: Cuomo +29 NYC primaries aren't exactly champagne socialism. More like Trader Joe's vs. Aldi.

People are being mislead demographic aspects of NY-13. When we're talking about DAC winning wealthier areas, you have to keep in mind that this district's median income is still substantially worse than the Manhattan district next to it. NY-13: $65K NY-12: $165K

Weiser Internal has him up 9% over Bennet. And tbh, that tracks

It’s a good sign going forward that the DSA held up well on persuasion in a lower-turnout environment. Also does speak to the idea that appealing to irony-poisoned edgy nonvoters is not worth the squeeze when you can just win over the ”cringe” people who do vote.

He’s turned into leftist Ed Davey and that’s… you know, good for him

You do wonder if Trone vs. McLain Delaney had happened in the NYC era it would've dampened the Tea Party narrative slightly. Trone really tried to torch McLain Delaney over the Laken Riley vote and spent $25M, but it didn't work well.

2028 Dem primary favorables among Dems Blorbo: +95 Glup Shitto: +93 AOC: +93 Kamala Harris: +93 Pete: +91 Newsom: +87 Rahm Emanuel: +30

another note: We all have seen the Bernie vs. Trump hypotheticals from 2016 Don’t hear as much on Kasich vs. Hillary. It hit Kasich +11 in Feb And I do think Bernie would’ve won (albeit narrowly), we just have to also factor in that after 8 years of Obama the right was thermostatically doing well.

At a bare minimum, losing the 2020 election to Biden despite having a strong economy and then a potential COVID rallying point is evidence Trump isn’t a generational talent. In the wake of 2020 all of the incumbents were winning

There has to be some middle ground between leftists thinking 2016 and 2024 were “layups that my preferred candidate would’ve won” and thinking the Republicans under Trump are some god-tier political operation.

Okay, it is pretty funny that after AOC, the next-best incumbent primary performance was Tom Suozzi, who was facing a paper candidate. The Dem Tea Party will not be migrating to Long Island any time soon, Suozzi got 82% in Nassau. And Gillen was uncontested

older candidates also seem to be vulnerable to persuasion *among old people*, which is a big development. It was notable that Cuomo and Mills’ support among 55+ was relatively soft. Just bc you’re old doesn’t mean you automatically want retirees holding on forever!

Tbh, despite all the ideological wrangling and bad tweets, to me the main difference-maker in Espaillat’s loss is that he is 71 and has been running for that seat since 2012. He was dropping 15-30% in his “stronghold” precincts, that suggests a persuasion/turnout collapse beyond anything DSA did

NY-7: Zohran 76%, Valdez 56% NY-10: Zohran 68%, Lander 66% NY-13: Zohran 59%, DAC 49% can increase Valdez by 2-3% bc of the spoiler (Won), but seems Lander matched Zohran the most

Dem is losing Sioux Falls Mayor by 2 (!) votes. Aaaa

thought about it some more and Kiros is probably favored, although narrowly in CO-01

While I would be surprised if any municipal accountant has ever risen this quickly in US history, yeah it’s clear the vast majority of Dems think Lander is a well-meaning nerd

tbh there's a lot of Dem Tea Party grassroots growing everywhere, so don't take my jokes too seriously. idk what this means, but there is an appetite for change

McLain Delaney is doing a little better on EDay than EV on Montgomery County, I think she is pretty safe to win from here.

Republican Tea Party never ends

McAdams won the UT-01 primary, not even close. Dang

not doing as well in Utah...

the Dem Tea Party only in New York theory might be real haha I want credit for inventing this

dang DDHQ calls it, Darializa Avila Chevalier has won

DCCC gets their candidate for NY-17 (Lawler). This wasn't close in the end, and polling + on-the-ground vibes always favored Conley

alright DAC is going to scrape by, it seems

Lasher very favored to win now, Bores not gaining on EDay by enough

LFG Rajkumar losing

yeah this wasn't even close, turns out outspending your opponent and running a ton of ads as a leftist is a good strategy to winning votes.

DAC is in less good shape, though. Not loving her chances unless she gets a 2025 primary EDay surge at the end

Valdez is going to win, and it won't be particularly close. All that twitter dooming for what?

Lander ousts Goldman, called within 6 min of polls closing

alright if Valdez is winning the EV by 12.5% it's kinda over

TV ads work example 2029475

At least in the Gallup surveys, young adults are the only age cohort whose opinions on changing one's gender hasn't become more negative since 2021 (when they first asked this question)

I’m proud to say that NY will very likely have all contested races called within a few hours of polls closing. Better things are possible! This used to take weeks!

gentrification having a boomerang effect on the left now that cost of living is far more salient is deeply ironic

You may as well say "Democrats and Republicans are diverging on whether developed society should exist" news.gallup.com/opinion/poll...

I know this did the rounds already, but the change on legal marijuana is the craziest part of this article. it’s such a steep drop among R’s and I’ve heard nothing about it in media. goodauthority.org/news/young-r...

Anti-incumbent wave: New Zealand edition Labour-Greens likely want to be in a stronger position. However, we have yet another situation where an incumbent leader is -20 in approvals and a government is disliked, and good luck bringing your voters home without major changes!

when you're a New York publication and you need to get clicks for the day, you gotta play the hits

2019 Lib Dem voteshare: 11.6% 2024: 12.2% Current polling: 12%

I think by now a lot of UK politics has actually converged to very familiar global far-right vs left catch-all However, it is still funny to hear US ppl treat the Lib Dems as viable when they never, ever go up in voteshare and are not taken very seriously

This take gets recycled as ragebait every year

Definitely potential for an inverse 2014 scenario where demotivated young moderates and conservatives (they do exist!) just don’t bother voting But we wouldn’t see that until after Labor Day.