I am trying not to post on these events in this state of mind but: I hope people understand what the observers are doing is brave and dangerous.

Just want to add NYT/Siena asked basically the same question in April and September (respectively) and found it was +12/+11 Now it is +3. Meaningful shift away, which I think is important. But yeah they’ve been tracking this for a while.

Unfortunately its nearly all of them

2024 ACS estimates for in-movers from abroad Texas actually surpassed California on this survey, Florida is third ahead of New York.

Only Oregon and Washington had a positive number of the major blue states The Southeast + AZ/NV are still a magnet. SC is attracting more movers than GA now, which is wild. Mountain West not doing as well anymore. Keep in mind CA/NY/NJ are still states where large numbers of immigrants arrive.

Punditry is over: back to regularly-scheduled demographics and elections posts. Here is the 2024 ACS data for state-to-state net moves! As you can see, CA and NY have some problems here... Sun Belt states continue to be attractive destinations, although it's slowed down from the 2020-2022 peak.

Troy Jackson is taunting us with how good his campaign for Governor is, I'm dying

Graham Platner really Brock Purdy, he's a replacement level candidate with a hungry team around him who smokes the opps

Bahaha there’s a 0% chance of this happening, sadly They played in Russia 2018 when Putin was trying to annex Donetsk and bombing Syrians

Alright, sorry, I will try not to comment on Senate primaries except to say Republicans suck. Staying focused in the Big 2026.

It’s ok, Susan Collins was out of Maine busy voting for more ICE money, really great work all around.

Apparently Mills was in San Francisco fundraising this week too. Gahhhh Troy Jackson SAVE ME www.axios.com/2026/01/23/j...

Breaking NYT: The FBI agent who sought to investigate the federal immigration officer who fatally shot Renee Good has resigned from the bureau, according to two people familiar with the matter, after leadership pressured her to discontinue a civil rights inquiry into the officer.

Just to clarify for people, Jasmine Crockett was not really gerrymandered out, the districts that got nuked were held by Veasay and Johnson So, while Crockett did them a huge favor and it played into her decision, she didn’t have to leave the House, technically www.texastribune.org/2025/12/05/t...

I...uh

A *lot* of ppl online that are deep in the weeds of politics as hobby see polling from avg voters expressing negative feelings about X or Y event and assume, wrongly, that that means they now share the full range of political positions the highly engaged do and...no. Thats not how their brains work.

It appears Platner had to deliver his strong anti-ICE video from the Copenhagen Airport, lmao

Absolute Cinema

Talarico is now up to $4.5m in spending Crockett has barely budged

🗳️🇸🇰 Poll of polls + seat estimates [Ipsos 26/01]

Another big ad spender in January is Sen. Mark Kelly He's spent ~$1M in ads after Hegseth tried to revoke his pension. Going to bring him a fundraising haul.

Did some Meta Ads investigations: Crockett spent big on ads when she announced, then almost nothing for the last month until 1/21. Talarico has been spending the whole time. Last 7 days spending: Talarico: $206,677 Crockett: $46,363 Since announcement: Talarico: $3.1M Crockett: $386K

Poilievre really doesn't have any options other than "Are the Liberals doing enough for the Canadian economy??!!" My opponent has delivered a world-historical moment and has set himself up as an avatar of the national will like f'ing Churchill or Atatürk, please help!

Crockett still having virtually no ads is insane when you consider the primary is less than six weeks away!

that's true, just like Joe Biden, Trump was replaced by a clone who made prices go up.

I’d say the biggest thing that sticks out in this (very) helpful tracker is that nonwhite and younger voters continue to put economic conditions, jobs, inflation, and cost of living as more important than anything else. Now, you do have to balance that messaging, but hard to avoid.

At the request of @corncobanalysis.bsky.social, I'm putting together a spreadsheet of all the recent polls that asked about respondent's most important issue: check it out, and yea I'm still adding onto it, so if you have any polls or whatever, let me know! LINK: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

It's worth noting that Vicente Gonzalez is a Bukele stan and attended Bukele's second inauguration. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

Would be a kinda funny grift if Congressional Republicans were raising tens of million of dollars all while having a secret plan to cancel elections… but in all likelihood they expect elections to happen and then will react after that. And the overwhelming likelihood is the losers all gtfo

young Democrats are demanding a money spread while old Democrats are most concerned with Trump, that's crazy

Most important issue facing the country, among registered Democrats (volunteered) on NYT/Siena: 1. Trump/Republicans - 22% 2. Economy - 16% = state of democracy/corruption - 16% 4. Immigration - 9% 5. Cost of living - 6% 6. Foreign policy - 5%

how tf did F1 get nominated for Best Picture

the AtlasIntel Brazil poll had some significant narrowing for Lula vs. the right in the second round. But since their polls are so based on PPC ads and Instagram responses, both Lula's big lead prior to Flávio jumping in and the narrowing are likely noise.

Ill try to make this the last Texas Senate Primary post but like the Crockett campaign is insane. They haven’t spent any money on ads yet with the primary only a month away, and she hopes to win Texas and “expand” the electorate by…only focusing on Dems?

embarrassing stuff

Americans' inability to realize Canada is a subtly different society is sorta downstream of Americans' inability to perceive subtlety period

I think the generic ballot will end around D+10. 🤷‍♂️

Btw Trump’s approval collapse with young and nonwhite voters should put pause to the idea that Dems don’t need to amp turnout

I’m proposing a centrist-leftist alliance on “it’s the economy, stupid”. Clearly we have a lot of ground in common with Mamdani/AOC and the Blue Dogs who think stuff is too damned expensive.

Border security cannot be untangled from immigration while "cost of living" cannot be untangled from economy and the gaps are much wider there. This is before getting to party trust polling where Republicans maintain a pretty big immigration advantage.

notes on NYT/Siena - they’re doing text-to-web polls now for half the sample! No more cold calls! - electorate tied on recalled vote but 20% did not vote - while I doubted them in 2024, it’s worth noting their polls generally underestimated Trump by 2-4, which surprised everyone

Except for the economy being 19% at most important issue volunteered, with the same number of D/Rs and more young people and people without college degrees While immigration is 2nd at 12%, mostly driven by twice as many Trump voters as Harris voters saying it’s important

NYT generic ballot is D+5, 48-43 RVs [vs D+2 in October] Indies: D+15 (50-35) 2024 nonvoters: D+15 (48-33) No LV poll, but suggests at least as blue a year as 2018 Trump approval at -16, 40-56 vs 43-54 in October

I don’t understand why you’d say you slept through a candidate forum due to narcolepsy instead of saying “I missed it due to a scheduling issue, won’t happen again, sorry”

You ever think about how the Republicans stole the Alabama gubernatorial race in 2002 with the most blatant fraud possible (discovering ~6,000 more Republican votes for that race and no others in one county after Democratic election monitors had gone home) and nobody cared?

Albania? Is Dua Lipa joining?

Disagree, are we talking about FT Leftists like me, or Reddit Leftists?

This has, quite possibly, been the dumbest two weeks of politics I have ever seen. Just full on rake stepping idiocy from everyone involved

Tobias? youtube.com/shorts/rNevO...