It's been about 2 weeks since the start of the war in Iran. 7 polls have asked about whether people oppose or support the war, and 50% oppose it, while 39% support it. So far, seems to be an issue that isn't completely toxic for Trump, but the longer it goes on, I suspect it will poll worse.

Tea Party (classic) still going strong

We got 9 polls for IL-09, which I think is more than we got for the US Senate race. My theory is many media people are from there or went to school there

New polling high for Lee Jae-Myung in March 2026.

Interestingly, New Mexico was one state where Republicans didn't see a large turnout advantage relative to 2020, D-R difference was comparable.

Bushra saying "the polls are all fake" to excuse herself staying in so she can spoil Kat is so funny

We also don't have much insight on here into the key number: the 18% of Republicans/Lean R's who say that Trump is making the economy worse (poll taken before the Iran War).

There's been a small but notable downturn for Reform and AfD in the last few months. The economic conditions haven't changed much in the UK or Germany, so those could be a response to the Greenland fiasco and the US' general aggression. CDU has now led or tied every poll since 2/6/26.

Let’s create some even funnier content with a D vs D election (leftists for Steyer, moderates for Swalwell?)

For comparison, in all of 2017-2018, Democrats flipped 26 districts while Republicans flipped 7.

Kat went down in favorables but went up in voteshare. "vote for the streamer, it's important"

Here's county-level day 1 and day 2 in isolation, % of the same day in 2025 vs Harris 2024 margin Rural turnout still high on day 2 but less lopsided r^2 was .22 for Day 1, and .11 for Day 2 Fairfax, Arlington (really NoVa collectively) sitting around 80% of 2025 atp

Every open congressional race but IL-09 is kinda funny. Even went on to endorse in IL-04 even though there is not a competitive primary this year.

The 1877 NJ Gubernatorial Election, a contest between Failed Civil War General and 1864 Democratic Presidential Candidate George McClellan and former Governor William Newell resulted in the popular General winning by D+7% the office of New Jersey's Chief Magistrate.

I had to get my car battery replaced yesterday...I cannot believe people on here think these price increases aren't a political liability

AtlasIntel with some truly astonishing misses here, not even close outside of Valencia winning (and still missed her voteshare by about 5% after taking out undecideds).

Colombian left did pretty well in the parliamentary elections. Not an outrageous showing, and parliament remains fractured between 10+ factions, but they increased seats and seemed to hold their ground.

AfD under 2025 federal in Baden? Ok ok

IL-09 Watergate, this race has everything

There’s some reasonable question in the US whether the famed “economic insecurity” voters are insecure or merely having a whinge (to use a British term) I’ve posted the GDP/productivity charts, but based on this @economist.com chart it continues to seem very valid

Daily turnout for the 2026 primary in Chicago vs 2022 and 2018. This is in person and mail in.

Since I'm doing comparative politics hot takes this afternoon. Aura-farming handsome center-left leaders of growing economies that are also constantly on fire? Hated by their left flanks, but unable to be dislodged?

PREACH

Progressive is more electable?

Global Zohran-ism (actually it should be Lee-ism because he did it first)

NGL, we seem to have another Texas situation where most Mainers seem to like both Platner and Mills. Many pro-Platner Redditors + FB commenters think Mills did a good job standing up to Trump and are only not voting for her bc of age/electability. Platner is only winning bc of youth support

they did find Democrats were more likely to say their society was bad than Republicans, btw But Republicans were still more convinced of societal evil than most countries

We got two Colombian polls for president with very different results, one with Cepeda +5 and the other Cepeda +30 I can’t find anything for their congressional elections on Sunday, but if the left (Pacto Histórico) does well, then that’d bode well for the presidency.

Biden + Scholz + Starmer have all failed to do this. Yet I’d argue it’s harder to fix than many believe on here, how does one compete with a ton of Instagram Reels + YouTube. Ex. The Hanson far-right surge in 🇦🇺 has entirely been via socials where she has unintelligible rants. But it cuts through!

Relatively speaking the bad payroll numbers are kind of a nothingburger in the sense that labor market weakness is not a surprise & in isolation could spur more rate cuts But it’s not great that there’s a large global supply shock happening very quickly and the labor market is not well supported

broadly agree, and the vibes are going to get so much worse, trust

Luis Suarez

They didn't publish crosstabs for this, but I think it'd look similar to the Marquette poll on "can others be trusted?" The deficits in social trust are most felt among young people, people without BAs, and nonwhites. By ideology it was fairly even. (the topline was similar at 52/48 "yes")

The worst countries on that social trust chart have deep and bitter political factions where you can tell ideology just observing ppl in public. USA: you know Brazil: PT vs. Bolsonaro Turkey: AKP vs. CHP Italy: PD vs. FdI France: left vs. center vs. right, just had a crisis over political violence

I disagree with this to an extent. The "morally bad" question is definitely picking up political disagreement (how many people on Bluesky think Republicans are morally bad, 99%?). Americans are very lonely and isolated, but Canadians are quite isolated and yet don't despise their neighbors!

Put another open GOP senate seat up on the board for November lol

Pew isn't the only one to find this, Gallup has "acceptance of gay or lesbian relations" flatlining since 2018

This poll is another data point of Brazil being the closest societal analogue to the USA right now.

The most insane one on this list is Kenya, which saw a +18 improvement from 2013. If you know anything about Kenya that's a pretty wild shift.

The US appears to be one of the few countries backsliding on "is homosexuality acceptable", which Pew and others picked up in recent years. Here is 2025 compared to a Pew survey in 2013. The US fell from +27 to +21 (-6). Comparatively Mexico: +18 Brazil: +17 UK: +9 Italy: +19 Japan: +38 ROK: +8

Pew buried this without a chart, but they found 90% of Americans think affairs are bad. This is up there with the ultra-religious countries like Indonesia. Meanwhile, France (53%) and Germany (55%) are at the bottom. www.pewresearch.org/religion/202...

You know, this looks correlated with how good polling is in a country. Not a coincidence, perhaps.

Quebec is tightening! PQ only up by % over the Liberals here

Leger showing the Liberals up 14 today

This Whatley primary performance was awful

let's go

You love to see it

Tpday in Chicago we had 3,855 new IPEV and 5,579 new mail ballots for a total of 9,434 new ballots! IPEV is below the equivalent day in 2018 for the second day in a row, today a much more significant difference too.

the Montana Dems are weak enough to get less than 5% of the vote even in a three-way race. Their current candidate (Reilly Neill) apparently tried to run as a no-hope write-in for MT-02 and siphoned off Dem votes, so her complaints are pretty laughable.