Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
@corncobanalysis.bsky.social
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📥 165
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🤯 woke degree holder read takes at
https://electioncord.com/
pinned post!
Don’t worry: my preferred candidate will become Democratic AMLO
over 1 year ago
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The guy who sorta botched this, Mike Gianaris, is retiring. And Jeffries + Joe Morelle are aggressively pushing Hochul to take out at least 3 R’s (I assume the two Long Island reps + one more). Plus they already tried to take out Malliotakis and SCOTUS f’d them over.
add a skeleton here at some point
26 minutes ago
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Probably got overlooked in Politico, but I do expect New York to put the first amendment change to redraw for 2028. They then have to hold the legislature (an easy lift for 2026) and then pass it again in 2027. But the redraw won’t be 26-0, more like 23-3 or 22-4 from the original Hochulmander.
37 minutes ago
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reposted by
Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
ElectionCord
about 4 hours ago
Join our Discord! We're one of the most active US Politics and Elections Discords out there, and you can catch sneak peeks on what we're working on on our website,
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ELECTIONCORD
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When we needed him most...he vanished 😭
@samshirazi.bsky.social
about 4 hours ago
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There was some early hope Labour wouldn't go over 1,200 council seat losses bc they held up very well in Greater London, but they ended up getting utterly destroyed in every other major city. So, this likely ends up >1,300 losses now.
about 4 hours ago
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yeah idk what move VA Dems try to go for, they could do "temporary" maps after 2027 session, or try to repeal the commission entirely to set them up for 2030 (would be hard to get past voters), or they could try and find some workaround for this court ruling (would that require a SCOTUS appeal tho?)
add a skeleton here at some point
about 4 hours ago
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in Newcastle the Greens gained 22 and Reform 24 at the expense of Labour, but they couldn't get more than 16 in leftist central? The heck?
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about 4 hours ago
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actually sorta shocked at how well Labour held up in Islington
about 5 hours ago
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Such sicko voting behavior here. Zero strategy. Just vibes. None of the voters had a clue who was going to win.
about 5 hours ago
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the anti-incumbent wave didn't take down Rahman epic tactical voting fail here as well
about 5 hours ago
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the Dems have massive issues w/being more trusting in institutions, but if we're being real, the institutions have completely failed the Dems too.
about 7 hours ago
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For context they were polling in the mid-50s combined (YouGov had the total at 62%, which was their highest result). Voters recognized it was a two-party race and they both obliterated expectations
add a skeleton here at some point
about 7 hours ago
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Plaid and Reform crushed expectations in Wales tbh, Plaid overperformed polls more, but Reform had a 1-2% beat as well
about 7 hours ago
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Dawg I think we gotta do Prop 50 2.0
about 8 hours ago
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the SNP got anti-incumbent waved in young urban centres
about 8 hours ago
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reposted by
Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
Dj
about 9 hours ago
2026 should be a blue enough year for Ds to still win the house. But between now and 2028 if Ds don’t maximally redraw where they can it could get much tougher
add a skeleton here at some point
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From what I can tell in this ruling, Virginia could just do the referendum again after another session happens (in 2027 or 2028??), but obviously ruling like this after voting and millions and spending is total horseshit
about 9 hours ago
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Greens backed up Gorton and Denton with really strong performances in Manchester. Also did well in Birmingham, but the Hackney result is a little worst than I thought they’d do. 16% on the notional vote matches polling and is still a threat to Labour
about 9 hours ago
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reposted by
Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
certified FPTP classic
about 18 hours ago
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I will say this is the second year now that we went into the locals thinking Reform might be ebbing/not turning out and then being wrong. They're going to outperform polls again.
add a skeleton here at some point
about 18 hours ago
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reposted by
Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
Luke Tryl
about 18 hours ago
🧵There is no doubt that Labour’s losses to the left hurt them, but just doesn’t seem to be borne out that what we are seeing is fragmentation of the left vote alone and Reform eating ex Tories. The right bloc is actively growing, likely some defections from Reform Labour some differential turnout.
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hahaha there's nothing Brits love more than rewarding the Lib Dems locally for no reason at all
about 18 hours ago
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Greens with a spectacular performance among student voters at Oxford ...but it only led to 4 seat gains. Not spread out efficiently there.
about 18 hours ago
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Wandsworth has no majority, Labour lost a ton of support, but it only benefited the Tories. I think the Tories lost voteshare in almost every individual race, but losses to the Greens cost Labour. Not much love for Reform in South London? Greens were not able to make any flips.
about 18 hours ago
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well, Sir John appears to have weighed in...Reform the real winner so far
about 19 hours ago
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The Greens are not turning out super well and seem to be mostly winning over left-switchers and no one else so far.
about 20 hours ago
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We hit the mythical >100 pts of change on this council seat. Labour had 83.4% here and are going to lose by 24!
about 20 hours ago
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Is this good?
add a skeleton here at some point
about 20 hours ago
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Starmer is cooked cooked
about 21 hours ago
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As far as I can tell, I haven't found any Oregon state officials on record even considering redistricting in a news headline. Can anyone find anything???
about 21 hours ago
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Echelon did a coalition breakdown of their "tribes", which are very oddly-named, but make sense if you're a terminally online sociologist Interesting how Hard Right MAGA and Hard Left do so much worse in lower-prop electorates.
echeloninsights.com/tribes
1 day ago
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87% of online disagreements are for this reason
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1 day ago
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Ah shit, the thing I warned everyone about may actually happen. If only there were a famous character from Greek mythology who I could compare this situation to.
add a skeleton here at some point
1 day ago
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I was the person who responded that the price of gas going up makes me feel good
add a skeleton here at some point
1 day ago
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reposted by
Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
Gen IV Garchomp
1 day ago
emersoncollegepolling.com/massachusett...
Hablamos
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They’re going to 18 Brumaire Vivek
add a skeleton here at some point
2 days ago
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Oregon being the second-worst state for job growth despite less DOGE exposure and being next to two of the richest regions in the world is so beastmode
add a skeleton here at some point
2 days ago
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I’m really charmed at how a bunch of Californians have been trying to pioneer a new Third Way, only to take one look at Matt Mahan and say “yeah nvm fuck this I’m out”
2 days ago
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Tomorrow has elections in Scotland and Wales + UK locals. In other words, get ready for posts about how Labour and the Tories have lost 80% of their votes in The Vale of Arryn and whatnot
2 days ago
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it’s awesome how it genuinely feels like any Dem incumbent losing is some kind of system shock, meanwhile these fucks take out their incumbents for fun…
add a skeleton here at some point
3 days ago
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reposted by
Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
Uncrewed
3 days ago
Final call of the night: Indiana Republican State Representative Bruce Borders has LOST his bid for re-election. The part-time Elvis impersonator (not kidding about that!) had a Trump endorsement, but still lost to Knox County Commissioner Kellie Streeter by six points.
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Dems are running 20-24 pts ahead of Harris in completed MI SD-35 precincts, hence why some are calling it.
3 days ago
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Chedrick Greene is an interesting candidate. Former fire captain who got endorsed by McDonald Rivet as her successor, but also picked up some union support. The Progs backed Pamela Pugh. Greene won 60-27, so it was a big L for progs back in the primary. Greene is one to watch for the future...
3 days ago
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reposted by
Centrist Reform Youth Party Chair
Dj
3 days ago
All Election Day votes so far in Midland, and Greene is down 9.5 in these precincts that Harris collectively lost by like 35 So, obviously a callable race for Greene atp
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Deery is ahead by three (3) votes on the corrected DDHQ update
add a skeleton here at some point
3 days ago
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So like, what does the US do when the country's entire right-wing apparatus, which is still a solid ~33-35% of the country, continues to get even worse as time goes on?
3 days ago
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Elliot Forhan lost. Electability Dems are so real
3 days ago
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DDHQ's 95% reporting on Indiana SD-23 is wrong, they have a whole county out that's Trump +infinity So I think Deery will also lose when that comes in.
3 days ago
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YEAR 18! GIVE IT UP FOR YEAR 18 OF THE REPUBLICAN TEA PARTY!
3 days ago
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This guy Nick McKinley in SD-17 for Indiana voted FOR redistricting, he's just losing because Republicans Are Like That.
3 days ago
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