The guy who sorta botched this, Mike Gianaris, is retiring. And Jeffries + Joe Morelle are aggressively pushing Hochul to take out at least 3 R’s (I assume the two Long Island reps + one more). Plus they already tried to take out Malliotakis and SCOTUS f’d them over.

Probably got overlooked in Politico, but I do expect New York to put the first amendment change to redraw for 2028. They then have to hold the legislature (an easy lift for 2026) and then pass it again in 2027. But the redraw won’t be 26-0, more like 23-3 or 22-4 from the original Hochulmander.

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When we needed him most...he vanished 😭 @samshirazi.bsky.social

There was some early hope Labour wouldn't go over 1,200 council seat losses bc they held up very well in Greater London, but they ended up getting utterly destroyed in every other major city. So, this likely ends up >1,300 losses now.

yeah idk what move VA Dems try to go for, they could do "temporary" maps after 2027 session, or try to repeal the commission entirely to set them up for 2030 (would be hard to get past voters), or they could try and find some workaround for this court ruling (would that require a SCOTUS appeal tho?)

in Newcastle the Greens gained 22 and Reform 24 at the expense of Labour, but they couldn't get more than 16 in leftist central? The heck?

actually sorta shocked at how well Labour held up in Islington

Such sicko voting behavior here. Zero strategy. Just vibes. None of the voters had a clue who was going to win.

the anti-incumbent wave didn't take down Rahman epic tactical voting fail here as well

the Dems have massive issues w/being more trusting in institutions, but if we're being real, the institutions have completely failed the Dems too.

For context they were polling in the mid-50s combined (YouGov had the total at 62%, which was their highest result). Voters recognized it was a two-party race and they both obliterated expectations

Plaid and Reform crushed expectations in Wales tbh, Plaid overperformed polls more, but Reform had a 1-2% beat as well

Dawg I think we gotta do Prop 50 2.0

the SNP got anti-incumbent waved in young urban centres

2026 should be a blue enough year for Ds to still win the house. But between now and 2028 if Ds don’t maximally redraw where they can it could get much tougher

From what I can tell in this ruling, Virginia could just do the referendum again after another session happens (in 2027 or 2028??), but obviously ruling like this after voting and millions and spending is total horseshit

Greens backed up Gorton and Denton with really strong performances in Manchester. Also did well in Birmingham, but the Hackney result is a little worst than I thought they’d do. 16% on the notional vote matches polling and is still a threat to Labour

certified FPTP classic

I will say this is the second year now that we went into the locals thinking Reform might be ebbing/not turning out and then being wrong. They're going to outperform polls again.

🧵There is no doubt that Labour’s losses to the left hurt them, but just doesn’t seem to be borne out that what we are seeing is fragmentation of the left vote alone and Reform eating ex Tories. The right bloc is actively growing, likely some defections from Reform Labour some differential turnout.

hahaha there's nothing Brits love more than rewarding the Lib Dems locally for no reason at all

Greens with a spectacular performance among student voters at Oxford ...but it only led to 4 seat gains. Not spread out efficiently there.

Wandsworth has no majority, Labour lost a ton of support, but it only benefited the Tories. I think the Tories lost voteshare in almost every individual race, but losses to the Greens cost Labour. Not much love for Reform in South London? Greens were not able to make any flips.

well, Sir John appears to have weighed in...Reform the real winner so far

The Greens are not turning out super well and seem to be mostly winning over left-switchers and no one else so far.

We hit the mythical >100 pts of change on this council seat. Labour had 83.4% here and are going to lose by 24!

Is this good?

Starmer is cooked cooked

As far as I can tell, I haven't found any Oregon state officials on record even considering redistricting in a news headline. Can anyone find anything???

Echelon did a coalition breakdown of their "tribes", which are very oddly-named, but make sense if you're a terminally online sociologist Interesting how Hard Right MAGA and Hard Left do so much worse in lower-prop electorates. echeloninsights.com/tribes

87% of online disagreements are for this reason

Ah shit, the thing I warned everyone about may actually happen. If only there were a famous character from Greek mythology who I could compare this situation to.

I was the person who responded that the price of gas going up makes me feel good

emersoncollegepolling.com/massachusett... Hablamos

They’re going to 18 Brumaire Vivek

Oregon being the second-worst state for job growth despite less DOGE exposure and being next to two of the richest regions in the world is so beastmode

I’m really charmed at how a bunch of Californians have been trying to pioneer a new Third Way, only to take one look at Matt Mahan and say “yeah nvm fuck this I’m out”

Tomorrow has elections in Scotland and Wales + UK locals. In other words, get ready for posts about how Labour and the Tories have lost 80% of their votes in The Vale of Arryn and whatnot

it’s awesome how it genuinely feels like any Dem incumbent losing is some kind of system shock, meanwhile these fucks take out their incumbents for fun…

Final call of the night: Indiana Republican State Representative Bruce Borders has LOST his bid for re-election. The part-time Elvis impersonator (not kidding about that!) had a Trump endorsement, but still lost to Knox County Commissioner Kellie Streeter by six points.

Dems are running 20-24 pts ahead of Harris in completed MI SD-35 precincts, hence why some are calling it.

Chedrick Greene is an interesting candidate. Former fire captain who got endorsed by McDonald Rivet as her successor, but also picked up some union support. The Progs backed Pamela Pugh. Greene won 60-27, so it was a big L for progs back in the primary. Greene is one to watch for the future...

All Election Day votes so far in Midland, and Greene is down 9.5 in these precincts that Harris collectively lost by like 35 So, obviously a callable race for Greene atp

Deery is ahead by three (3) votes on the corrected DDHQ update

So like, what does the US do when the country's entire right-wing apparatus, which is still a solid ~33-35% of the country, continues to get even worse as time goes on?

Elliot Forhan lost. Electability Dems are so real

DDHQ's 95% reporting on Indiana SD-23 is wrong, they have a whole county out that's Trump +infinity So I think Deery will also lose when that comes in.

YEAR 18! GIVE IT UP FOR YEAR 18 OF THE REPUBLICAN TEA PARTY!

This guy Nick McKinley in SD-17 for Indiana voted FOR redistricting, he's just losing because Republicans Are Like That.