11/30: Today is the last day of the 2025 hurricane season. The month of November has proven to be very quiet this year, with no named storms during the month. There weren't even any disturbances mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook the en... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1995096242884358356

We can call the 2025 hurricane season a lot of things but quiet only applies to the U.S. Here's my recap of the tumultuous hurricane season that left no shortage of big records. ⬇️

Stunning lenticular #cloud over Mt. Washington #NHwx today!

RT by @NHC_Atlantic: Preliminary findings on NHC's 2025 forecast performance for the Atlantic basin are now available! The complete report will be released this spring, but check out this brief summary. Full report here: https://x.com/NWSNHC/status/1992987232756543597

Every Category 4 and 5 Atlantic hurricane since 2020, all together, in one group photo. H/t to @ferragamowx.bsky.social for the inspiration.

Hurricane Melissa produced the fastest hurricane winds to be recorded by a dropsonde, verified by reviewing data at NSF NCAR! Hurricane Melissa’s 252 mph wind gust surpassed the previous record from Typhoon Megi over the Western Pacific in 2010, where a dropsonde measured wind gusts of 248 mph.

Hurricane forecasting: Humans are still King, but AI is catching up?! Here’s a very simple & limited comparison 5 days out of the best and worst forecasts for #Melissa on left and the season on right. Not to pile on the GFS/ American model, but it had a bad season overall... 1/

Though the season doesn't officially end until November 30, here's a look at Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity in 2025 from an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) perspective. What stands out to me is the anomalously high August + October activity and the anomalously low September activity.

During the core months of hurricane season (Aug-Sep-Oct), fairly persistent anomalous "troughiness" was centered over the southeast U.S., which resulted in anomalous counter-clockwise steering flow around it. This helps explain why hurricanes generally turned northward well before reaching the U.S.

Today Google DeepMind and Google Research are introducing WeatherNext 2, our most advanced and efficient forecasting model. WeatherNext 2 can generate forecasts 8x faster and provide hundreds of possible weather outcomes for more accurate forecasts.

What made the above-average 2025 #HurricaneSeason unusual? - Least amount of Accumulated Cyclone Energy since 2022 - No U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time since 2015 - Latest first named storm formation since 2014 - Three Category 5 hurricanes, second only to the 2005 season

Today marks 20 days since any measurable rainfall at my coop site in Lake Worth Florida. For the time being long range guidance does not offer much hope for any significant amounts. #FLwx

This cold outbreak was also impressive in how far south it pushed, even to #Miami, FL. The Miami International Airport #KMIA set its first record low (49°F) in more than a decade! Between the last two record lows (11/2/14 to 11/11/25), there have been *97 new record highs* set at the airport. #FLwx

57˚ may not sound all that cold to many of you. But that was this morning's low in Key West, Florida, tying their "record coldest so early in fall" with four other dates in 1966, 1955, 1913.

This may be the coldest early November outbreak in parts of Florida and the Southeast since 1993. About 2 dozen daily record lows in jeopardy on Veterans Day. More deets: weather.com/forecast/reg...

Out of all the stats that will be in history books from Melissa, this is the most astounding to me. GLM data was recording a peak flash rate of 700 strikes per minute — nearly 12 per second — as it made landfall on Jamaica. That’s rewriting our understanding flash density in tropical cyclones.

With ERA5 data updated through the end of October, I plotted potential intensity values averaged over the Caribbean Sea relative to Hurricane Melissa. Values area-wide were well above normal before the hurricane, producing a couple peak values (since 1981), with a sharp drop in the wake of Melissa.

Western Pacific in focus today as Kalmaegi has caused devastating flooding in Philippines and a new depression looks likely to threaten Luzon as a super typhoon this weekend. Also highlight @michaelrlowry.bsky.social post about just how poor GFS has been this hurricane season. tinyurl.com/du2smex7

Today's my final routine newsletter of the hurricane season, so I thought I'd dig into the preliminary results of our forecast models. Google's DeepMind scorched the competition, but for America's flagship weather model, it was a season to forget.

Here is a zoomed in radar version of 28 Oct showing #Melissa 's inner core evolution before #Jamaica landfall. Radar evidence some type of fast eyewall replacement cycle, #ERC, occurred. Eye went from 10 n mi to 15 n mi on VDM fixes & more intensification occured after ERC. Horrible for Jamaica 😞

There's a decent chance that HURRICANE SEASON 2025 IS OVER. Hostile upper winds are increasingly dominating the tropics. If this is it, the season ends with near normal numbers EXCEPT for 3 Category 5's including Melissa, which was stunningly and tragically off the charts. More at HurricaneIntel.com

Quick run of my parametric wind swath model on a small portion of Melissa's track. All storm parameters (track, intensity, size) come from the working "best-track", and I simply reduce wind speeds over land by a uniform 30%. Not perfect, but it's something.

October monthly summary at Adrians Weather Station the mean temperature was (78.6°) Precipitation (8.17"). #Flwx

Here are updated verifications for 2025, AL/EP combined, EMXI not available. Impressed that NHC is beating everything, including consensus, for intensity, and everything but Google DeepMind (GDMI) for track. Rough year for GFS and the statistical intensity aids. Banner year for GDMI.

The three Category 5 storms of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

A look at the devastating power loss across Jamaica following the historic crossing of Hurricane Melissa, captured by NOAA-21.

Annotating a long 3+ day loop of #Hurricane #Melissa from Kingston, #Jamaica radar. 2️⃣ periods appear where an eyewall replacement cycle, #ERC, looked underway. In both cases, inner eyewall stayed intact & outer bands merged, resulting in a larger eye & strengthening after. A remarkable evolution 🌀

Inspired by Brian's chart, I investigated how much time North Atlantic named storms spent at hurricane and at major hurricane strength during 1966-2025. Blue = proportion for "hurricane time" (category 1-5). Orange = proportion for "major hurricane time" (category 3-5). More details in alt text!

Alrighty, ready to see something really cool? (and maybe a little nauseating) The evolution of Hurricane Melissa's mesovortices at peak strength.

Viewed by #CopernicusEU Sentinel satellites, hurricane #Melissa seen over the Caribbean, currently the strongest tropical cyclone of the year worldwide. Our thoughts are with everyone affected. Please follow guidance from local authorities and stay safe. @noaa.gov @euspa.bsky.social @eumetsat.int

Multi-panel view of the last few days of Hurricane Melissa: ↖️ GOES-19 infrared brightness temp ↗️ GOES-19 visible satellite ↙️ Hurricane hunter planes & flight paths ↘️ Recon-derived flight level wind swath ⬇️ Estimated minimum pressure from recon dropsondes

Regarding the sonde from yesterday morning with the 219-kt spot wind, highest dropsonde wind ever seen in a TC, AOML/HRD shared the raw data and I took a look this morning. They’ll have the final call, but I see nothing wrong with the ob and I suspect it’s going to hold up.

We wrote about the Google DeepMind AI forecast model that has been doing quite well in predicting Atlantic #hurricane tracks & intensities this year. Thanks @bmcnoldy.bsky.social @franklinjamesl.bsky.social for insights, @NOAA for working without pay: www.nature.com/articles/d41... 🧪🌀

Slow-moving #Melissa was quite effective at extracting energy from the warm water below it. This 10-day loop of ocean heat content tells the story, and more decreases will show up closer to Jamaica and Cuba in the coming days. [1/2]

This has probably already been posted here, but Melissa has displayed a classic mesovortex pattern that can be modeled in the simplest 2D atmospheric models ("nondivergent barotropic models"). Here's a comparison of this morning's VIS sat and Kossin and Schubert (2001) experiments.

Melissa was a Category 5 hurricane for 36 consecutive hours. Only 4 other hurricanes in the satellite record – Irma (2017), Ivan (2004), Mitch (1998), and David 1979 – lasted as long as a Category 5 hurricane. Typically Cat 5s last about 18 hours before weakening.

The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) satellite-derived intensity estimate peaked at 185 knots for #Melissa -- which, according to the developer at CIMSS, is the highest value to date for any tropical cyclone.

The Copernicus Sentinel-2 polar-orbiting satellite made an extremely fortuitous pass over Hurricane Melissa right before it made landfall in Jamaica to provide these stunning images of one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes in history

I've had to update the plot of the strongest tropical cyclones by ocean basin all too often in recent years, since climate change increases the number of high-end storms. Melissa has joined the club, tied with Dorian (2019) as strongest Atlantic hurricane recorded outside the Gulf of Mexico.

NOAA’s hurricane research division staff has been cut from 52 in 2020 to 28 in 2025, almost a 50% cut. They’ve resorted to using volunteers to man the critical radar and dropsonde stations on Hurricane Hunter flights. Senseless cuts in an era of climate change making the strongest storms stronger.

#Melissa's landfall intensity of 185 mph/892 mb ties it with the Florida Key's Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the record minimum pressure of any TC making landfall *anywhere* the NATL basin. I feel for the residents of #Jamaica 😞 Zoomed in G19 visible meso loop courtesy of @cyclonicwx.bsky.social

Thanks to @bmcnoldy.bsky.social & @drkimwood.bsky.social for help with this story. We were all struggling to find sufficient words. “It’s this frustrating combination of, scientifically speaking, we know this is possible, but as humans we are flabbergasted at seeing manifest in this way.” -Kim 🧪

#Melissa makes landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope as a powerful category 5 hurricane. For the latest updates visit http://hurricanes.gov https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1983218217351774500

219-kt peak wind would be the highest wind value a dropsonde has ever recorded, ahead of 215-kt value in Super Typhoon Megi in 2010 & the 210 kt recorded just yesterday in #Hurricane #Melissa. Still needs to be validated… so this data is preliminary.

12PM Update: The eye of #Melissa is approaching the southwestern coast of Jamaica. STAY IN YOUR SHELTER! For the latest visit http://hurricanes.gov https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1983203174564729092

With a central pressure down to 892mb as of 10am EDT, #Melissa is moving up the ranks in the elite sub-900mb group of Atlantic hurricanes -- one of just seven. Wilma 2005: 882mb Gilbert 1988: 888mb Melissa 2025: 892mb Labor Day 1935: 892mb Rita 2005: 895mb Milton 2024: 895mb Allen 1980: 899mb

From a crewmember on yesterday's Teal 74 mission into now-Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa. As clear of an eye as you will see in the Atlantic basin.

This meso loop of #Melissa from CIRA is absolutely stunning at it makes its closes in on landfall in southwestern Jamaica. rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/... #hurricanemelissa

You VERY rarely ever see a satellite presentation like this anywhere in the world. And you certainly don't expect to see it this close to a mountainous island. As of 5am EDT on Tuesday, #Melissa is the 8th strongest Atlantic hurricane on record by central pressure (901 mb).