Whether it wants to or not, the EU is quickly being drawn into a mode of needing to contribute to the security of its members. Here we have von der Leyen proclaiming that "We" will respond to every provocation and signaling the further investments in the EU's & NATO's Eastern flank:

🎙️ EU foreign direct investment, explained @rebeccawire.bsky.social discusses with @niclaspoitiers.bsky.social & Damien Levie from European Commission's DG Trade on what is at stake as talks start on how to revise the FDI rules. #EconSky Listen to the podcast:

Important stuff here by @jeremycliffe.bsky.social on the regional elections in NRW, Germany. You’ll see a lot of stories about a “far right surge” (the FT has one this morning). But that happened a couple of years ago. These results record voter shifts that already happened. 1/

JOB POSTING 💼 As we keep expanding our work on energy, climate and clean tech, we at Bruegel - Improving economic policy are now searching for a climate economist to complement our team. Please share/apply! www.bruegel.org/careers/clim...

🌱 Towards a Green Procurement Union: trade-offs and strategic choices 📅 24 Sep 2025 13:00-14:00 CET On a new Bruegel paper about public procurement and green transition w/ @niclaspoitiers.bsky.social, Anna Cavazzini, @francesconicoli.bsky.social, Oliver K. Saltoft & Marta Toporek 🔗 buff.ly/MIEhPwz

🚗 Electric vehicle sales grow steadily across Europe. In June, 26% of newly registered cars were electric (compares to 20% in Jun24). Italy and Spain lag the average. Germany edges in front. Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark are far ahead. european-clean-tech-tracker.bruegel.org/technology/e...

Some reflections from @bruegel.org #BAM. I am sorry for #Draghi, #Letta, and others trying to wake up #European leaders. Complacency reigns as the economic and political situation deteriorates. We are responsible for our mess and cannot expect any support, on the contrary.

@niclaspoitiers.bsky.social, a trade expert at Bruegel, a Belgian think tank, said the EACO description was “a bit harsh” but acknowledged “there’s some truth to it”. “It doesn’t matter whether it’s fair, the point is deterrence. If it’s not a credible threat... it’s not a deterrent"

NEW: The first evidence of a solar take-off in Africa☀️✈️ x33 rise in Algeria solar panel imports in the 12 mths to June 2025, compared to previous 12 mths. x8 in Zambia x7 in Botswana x6 in Sudan x3 in each of Liberia, DRC, Benin, Angola, Ethiopia 🧵

NEW: EU and US publish joint statement on trade deal. Language relating to China in this short thread: policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/joint-s...

"Trump has switched the United States’ role from global insurer to extractor of profit". The recent piece by @adamposen.bsky.social in #ForeignAffairs lucidly spells out the consequences: damaging for everyone, including the US, but less so for #China. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

#Bruegel is republishing the classics and I’m super proud that this paper by @pisaniferry.bsky.social and myself made the cut. It took a lot of work on then-obscure central bank liquidity data, but it changed the way we look at capital flows within monetary union. www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...

I hope the China hawks are comfortable knowing their security concerns have a price tag.

The survival of any ‘deal’ with Trump ultimately depends on whether he insists on his unreal, unhinged statements - or whether these are just triumphalist brags that are removed from reality, but he will later simply declare the FDI inflow to be the triumph he declared before /1

Lot's of excitement about Trumps IEEPA tariffs right now, but how long they will last is anyone's guess. It seems more likely than not that they will be rejected by the appeals court in just a few weeks. In the end it will be in the hand of the supreme court www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

For whatever it is worth, in my view the EU should judge its self-perception on whatever crazy tariff or Ukraine/Russia policy Trump puts forward, in which the story might still change every day. The real question is whether the EU itself can get its act together.

There was a lot of commentary, including from myself, that the EU got the same deal as Japan. Turns out that was wrong - they got a better deal.

CALL FOR APPLICATIONS We are looking for one Economist and one Data Scientist to work on energy and climate topics. Applications are reviewed on a rolling basis—apply now! 1️⃣ Data scientist: buff.ly/bP72njr 2️⃣ Economist: buff.ly/qOdMnkf

Most electricity in the Netherlands now comes from renewables. This is today's @ourworldindata.org Data Insight from my colleague @simonvanteutem.bsky.social. All our Data Insights are here: ourworldindata.org/data-insights

Great paper on the European automotive sector, bringing some nuance to a shrill debate

“Instead of pointing fingers, the critics should roll up their sleeves.” Our leader on the EU-US trade deal. economist.com/leaders/2025...

WE ARE HIRING! Bruegel is looking for a skilled Operations Assistant for its office in Brussels to undertake various day-to-day office and operations tasks. 🔗 Apply before Wednesday 13th August 2025, 23:59 CET: www.bruegel.org/careers/oper...

In sum, in the first half of this year GDP was relatively weak (1.2%) and core inflation was relatively high (3.0%). This is not a catastrophic recession or inflation but it is a cause for serious concern--and a real quandary for the Fed.

Germany is deliberately alternating between positive and negative growth each quarter just to mock those fixated on the technical definition of a recession.

“The EU-US deal shows the shambles of European foreign policy. You can’t ring-fence the economy from defence – if you are dependent in your security you won’t be autonomous in commerce,” said Niclas Poitiers, a trade specialist at Bruegel, a Belgian think tank.

US confirming EU carve out on pharma and chips probes under 232. So EU tariffs stay at 15% as reported

It's hard to see how the energy component of the EU-US trade deal can be fulfilled. EU total energy imports from the US amounted to around $70 billion in 2024. The deal implies to suddenly more than triple this volume for the next 3 years. This is unlikely for both demand & supply reasons (1/4)

Brussels blame game on full display here. 1) There is no way the EU Commission went ahead for the deal without prior agreement from France. 2) France, among others, signalled unwillingness for robust reaction as soon as Trump threatened a key French interest (wine).

4/ This means that those confronted with a US willing to hurt itself with tariffs have no good options. I think you can make a credible case both for aggressive resistance and for appeasement. Anyone pretending the choice is easy is, in my view, kidding themselves.

EU officials expect there to be a joint statement with the US on yesterday's deal - not-legally binding. This is expected to be along the lines of the US-Indonesia statement from roughly a week ago.

Not exactly a good day (but perhaps a timely one) to revisit this recent Bruegel analysis on the economic consequences of Trump tariffs on the EU, by @niclaspoitiers.bsky.social and colleagues. www.bruegel.org/analysis/eco...

The EU-US deal shows the shambles of European foreign policy. You can’t ring-fence the economy from defence – if you are dependent in your security you won’t be autonomous in commerce

🚨EU sources say deal done with Trump in Scotland

Ah Germany. After the allegations of plagiarism against Brosius-Gersdorf, one of the accusers, MP Saskia Ludwig, has been accused of plagiarism by including 86 passages without proper sourcing on 113 pages.

Good illustration of how tariffs and policy uncertainty are undermining investment in US manufacturing: Richmond Fed capex expectations six months ahead at financial crisis/plague levels in July

My NYT opinion on the threat to the Fed. I argue it has powerful short-run protections (including interest rates set by a 12 person committee). But it's largely defenseless against a sustained assault by two Presidents in a row. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/17/o...

⚙️ The European single market: restarting the perpetual revolution 🚧 @roeldom.bsky.social and @niclaspoitiers.bsky.social assess the EU's options to overcome the barriers that continue to undermine its single market 🔗 buff.ly/Zuf2F8J #EconSky

Just in time for the summer break: @roeldom.bsky.social and my take on where the Single Market agenda is failing and what would need to change to make it a success www.bruegel.org/working-pape... @bruegel.bsky.social #SingleMarket

Our Blueprint on the #EU #MFF is out. On #OwnResources, we outline criteria for new own resources, arguing that they should primarily advance EU policy goals. 📖 Read more below 👇

A great honor for me to have this conversation with Enrico Letta, on the proposal to integrate all EU capital market supervision within a transformed, multicentric ESMA – also many thanks to @rebeccawire.bsky.social for hosting it!

A new, detailed proposal on how to transform ESMA into the single supervisor that EU capital markets need.

Trump posted this message from Nato SG Rutte

Glad to share some thoughts in @brusselstimes.com on the #Brussels Region’s growing fiscal troubles - what a credit downgrade could mean and the risks this poses for #debt management. 📖 www.brusselstimes.com/economics/16... #Brussels #PublicFinance #Debt #Bruegel

Job posting 🚨 We at Bruegel are looking for a full-time researcher on energy and climate. Please don't hesitate to apply/share! 🚀 www.bruegel.org/careers/ener...

It is not good news that the best available rationales for raising the steel tariffs to 50% from 25 seem to be "IEEPA tariffs are likely illegal" and "TACO is making news".

www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/what-... @foreignaffairs.com

German economy minister Katharina Reiche will need to reconsider her approach. Germany cannot sustain an energy intensive industry based on subsidies for long. Europe will need heavy industry for its strategic autonomy but it will rellocate to places with lower energy costs. on.ft.com/3Z4QG2n

RESOLVED: no one to be quoted by large-circulation media outlets about overall employment levels until they have convincingly demonstrated to a panel of economists that they understand the lump of labour fallacy.

With the full list of signatories (plus Spain, now making it 17 countries) most member states including right off EPP parties are supporting this, except notably Italy: - Belgium (N-VA/ECR) - Czechia (ODS/ECR) - Finland (Finns/ECR) - NL (PVV/Patriots for Europe)

Bleakly poetic finale for one of Europe’s big green industrial hopes: there’s now a homepage auctioning off the entire Northvolt factory in Sweden - complete sell-off, right down to the parking signs and bike racks. nvx.psauction.com?gad_source=1...