Germany's unlikely new China hawk - president of central bank, has found his wings. Nagel says EU should be ready to retaliate against Beijing If retaliation is a last resort, “I would say, okay, we have to be strong and have to take a bold decision"

This was always a central flaw in the European chips policy: it chased the flashy smartphone chips whereas what Europe industry really depends on is much more mundane

European Council summits are often treated by outside observers as foreign policy-style summits, especially when issues like frozen Russian assets are discussed. But really this is like domestic legislating. There's always haggling. This is how the EU sausage gets made.

High time to get rid of the 'bazooka' framing. The ACI is not a magic weapon. It's a new procedural way of threatening retaliation and then imposing it. The effect really depends on the threats the EU is willing to make. Currently we're mainly deterring ourselves with the military analogies.

Ukraine's central bank has held the country's exchange rate relatively stable in the last year after the initial volatility caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion. But that might be about to change. Read more: kyivindependent.com/will-ukraine...

🏠 Heat pumps are a key enabler of buildings decarbonisation. After a jump during the energy crisis, their deployment has slowed-down. Reversing this is key for climate, security and competitiveness, as Europe is a leading manufacturer of the technology. See: european-clean-tech-tracker.bruegel.org

⚡9.-Klässler:innen 2024 vs. 2018: Mathe -24⬇️ Bio -24⬇️ Chemie -24⬇️ Physik -23⬇️ Die neuen Ergebnisse des IQB-Bildungstrends. Ganz grob gesprochen: 9.-Klässler:innen liegen heute etwa auf Niveau der 8.-Klässler:innen noch vor 6 Jahren. 1/3

Bloomberg: EU considering forcing Chinese firms to hand over tech to European companies if they want to operate locally. as part of a legislative proposal called the Industrial Accelerator Act - expected in November

🎉 Congratulations to former Bruegel Fellow Philippe Aghion for being awarded the @riksbank.se Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences 💡 In 2009, Aghion co-authored a Policy Brief on 'No green growth without innovation', co-authored with Reinhilde Veugelers and David Hémous 🔗 buff.ly/yXNJqEg

Looking back at yesterday's motions of censure against the EU Commission, they really drove down how France's political crisis is spilling over into the EU: -> Both the far-left and the far-right motions of censures came from French MEPs, uploading their fight against 'centrists'

As #France is without government once more, it is worth remembering that its total bilateral support for #Ukraine is less than that of Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands. Not combined. Individually, and in €bn not % of GDP.

So much of the coverage of the EU is hyper-micro. It's all about the sausage making. So story out of Copenhagen European Council is "dithering," "all talk, no action," nothing fully agreed, etc. It's an effing meeting! Take a step back... they are moving on Eurobonds/frozen Russian assets. 1/

💢 COVID-19’s economic impact on low-income countries: preparing for the next shock ⛓️💥 How can vulnerable countries better withstand shocks in an era of heightened uncertainty? 🖊️ @niclaspoitiers.bsky.social and Costanza Greppi Maturana 🔗 buff.ly/Tj41aPW #EconSky

💡 𝗜𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝘀 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀! Stronger research investment, better knowledge transfer, + policies linking trade, tax + innovation are key to resilience. 📽️More: www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6P7... #SupplyChains #Innovation #EUResearch @horizoneu.bsky.social

Whether it wants to or not, the EU is quickly being drawn into a mode of needing to contribute to the security of its members. Here we have von der Leyen proclaiming that "We" will respond to every provocation and signaling the further investments in the EU's & NATO's Eastern flank:

🎙️ EU foreign direct investment, explained @rebeccawire.bsky.social discusses with @niclaspoitiers.bsky.social & Damien Levie from European Commission's DG Trade on what is at stake as talks start on how to revise the FDI rules. #EconSky Listen to the podcast:

Important stuff here by @jeremycliffe.bsky.social on the regional elections in NRW, Germany. You’ll see a lot of stories about a “far right surge” (the FT has one this morning). But that happened a couple of years ago. These results record voter shifts that already happened. 1/

JOB POSTING 💼 As we keep expanding our work on energy, climate and clean tech, we at Bruegel - Improving economic policy are now searching for a climate economist to complement our team. Please share/apply! www.bruegel.org/careers/clim...

🌱 Towards a Green Procurement Union: trade-offs and strategic choices 📅 24 Sep 2025 13:00-14:00 CET On a new Bruegel paper about public procurement and green transition w/ @niclaspoitiers.bsky.social, Anna Cavazzini, @francesconicoli.bsky.social, Oliver K. Saltoft & Marta Toporek 🔗 buff.ly/MIEhPwz

🚗 Electric vehicle sales grow steadily across Europe. In June, 26% of newly registered cars were electric (compares to 20% in Jun24). Italy and Spain lag the average. Germany edges in front. Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark are far ahead. european-clean-tech-tracker.bruegel.org/technology/e...

Some reflections from @bruegel.org #BAM. I am sorry for #Draghi, #Letta, and others trying to wake up #European leaders. Complacency reigns as the economic and political situation deteriorates. We are responsible for our mess and cannot expect any support, on the contrary.

@niclaspoitiers.bsky.social, a trade expert at Bruegel, a Belgian think tank, said the EACO description was “a bit harsh” but acknowledged “there’s some truth to it”. “It doesn’t matter whether it’s fair, the point is deterrence. If it’s not a credible threat... it’s not a deterrent"

NEW: The first evidence of a solar take-off in Africa☀️✈️ x33 rise in Algeria solar panel imports in the 12 mths to June 2025, compared to previous 12 mths. x8 in Zambia x7 in Botswana x6 in Sudan x3 in each of Liberia, DRC, Benin, Angola, Ethiopia 🧵

NEW: EU and US publish joint statement on trade deal. Language relating to China in this short thread: policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/joint-s...

"Trump has switched the United States’ role from global insurer to extractor of profit". The recent piece by @adamposen.bsky.social in #ForeignAffairs lucidly spells out the consequences: damaging for everyone, including the US, but less so for #China. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

#Bruegel is republishing the classics and I’m super proud that this paper by @pisaniferry.bsky.social and myself made the cut. It took a lot of work on then-obscure central bank liquidity data, but it changed the way we look at capital flows within monetary union. www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...

I hope the China hawks are comfortable knowing their security concerns have a price tag.

The survival of any ‘deal’ with Trump ultimately depends on whether he insists on his unreal, unhinged statements - or whether these are just triumphalist brags that are removed from reality, but he will later simply declare the FDI inflow to be the triumph he declared before /1

Lot's of excitement about Trumps IEEPA tariffs right now, but how long they will last is anyone's guess. It seems more likely than not that they will be rejected by the appeals court in just a few weeks. In the end it will be in the hand of the supreme court www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

For whatever it is worth, in my view the EU should judge its self-perception on whatever crazy tariff or Ukraine/Russia policy Trump puts forward, in which the story might still change every day. The real question is whether the EU itself can get its act together.

There was a lot of commentary, including from myself, that the EU got the same deal as Japan. Turns out that was wrong - they got a better deal.

CALL FOR APPLICATIONS We are looking for one Economist and one Data Scientist to work on energy and climate topics. Applications are reviewed on a rolling basis—apply now! 1️⃣ Data scientist: buff.ly/bP72njr 2️⃣ Economist: buff.ly/qOdMnkf

Most electricity in the Netherlands now comes from renewables. This is today's @ourworldindata.org Data Insight from my colleague @simonvanteutem.bsky.social. All our Data Insights are here: ourworldindata.org/data-insights

Great paper on the European automotive sector, bringing some nuance to a shrill debate

“Instead of pointing fingers, the critics should roll up their sleeves.” Our leader on the EU-US trade deal. economist.com/leaders/2025...

WE ARE HIRING! Bruegel is looking for a skilled Operations Assistant for its office in Brussels to undertake various day-to-day office and operations tasks. 🔗 Apply before Wednesday 13th August 2025, 23:59 CET: www.bruegel.org/careers/oper...

In sum, in the first half of this year GDP was relatively weak (1.2%) and core inflation was relatively high (3.0%). This is not a catastrophic recession or inflation but it is a cause for serious concern--and a real quandary for the Fed.

Germany is deliberately alternating between positive and negative growth each quarter just to mock those fixated on the technical definition of a recession.

“The EU-US deal shows the shambles of European foreign policy. You can’t ring-fence the economy from defence – if you are dependent in your security you won’t be autonomous in commerce,” said Niclas Poitiers, a trade specialist at Bruegel, a Belgian think tank.

US confirming EU carve out on pharma and chips probes under 232. So EU tariffs stay at 15% as reported

It's hard to see how the energy component of the EU-US trade deal can be fulfilled. EU total energy imports from the US amounted to around $70 billion in 2024. The deal implies to suddenly more than triple this volume for the next 3 years. This is unlikely for both demand & supply reasons (1/4)

Brussels blame game on full display here. 1) There is no way the EU Commission went ahead for the deal without prior agreement from France. 2) France, among others, signalled unwillingness for robust reaction as soon as Trump threatened a key French interest (wine).

4/ This means that those confronted with a US willing to hurt itself with tariffs have no good options. I think you can make a credible case both for aggressive resistance and for appeasement. Anyone pretending the choice is easy is, in my view, kidding themselves.

EU officials expect there to be a joint statement with the US on yesterday's deal - not-legally binding. This is expected to be along the lines of the US-Indonesia statement from roughly a week ago.

Not exactly a good day (but perhaps a timely one) to revisit this recent Bruegel analysis on the economic consequences of Trump tariffs on the EU, by @niclaspoitiers.bsky.social and colleagues. www.bruegel.org/analysis/eco...

The EU-US deal shows the shambles of European foreign policy. You can’t ring-fence the economy from defence – if you are dependent in your security you won’t be autonomous in commerce

🚨EU sources say deal done with Trump in Scotland

Ah Germany. After the allegations of plagiarism against Brosius-Gersdorf, one of the accusers, MP Saskia Ludwig, has been accused of plagiarism by including 86 passages without proper sourcing on 113 pages.

Good illustration of how tariffs and policy uncertainty are undermining investment in US manufacturing: Richmond Fed capex expectations six months ahead at financial crisis/plague levels in July

My NYT opinion on the threat to the Fed. I argue it has powerful short-run protections (including interest rates set by a 12 person committee). But it's largely defenseless against a sustained assault by two Presidents in a row. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/17/o...