🧵1/ Our first meta-science paper (with 350+ coauthors) is published today in Nature. It presents one of the largest-ever reproducibility projects in economics & political science. Here’s what we found 👇

found something rather baffling when researching my column this week… I wanted to see if there was any evidence that AI tools were helping economists to make their research more readable. So I analysed the text of NBER working paper abstracts…

I'm lecturing about the "History of NLP" this week. What should I include? Any favorite anecdotes, images, people, methods? Slides, books, papers, or talks for inspiration or grounding? I've been maintaining a small collection here: www.are.na/maria-antoni...

Threading some stuff about oil & oil markets, just basic but hope it helps: 1/ oil markets are what you call “finely balanced”. Supply is usually very very close to demand/consumption. Demand is hard to shift *quickly* in response to supply hiccups. So even small supply changes = big price effects

A lifetime of collecting: the 70,000-volume home library of Bruno Schröder, a mining engineer. A wonderland of books 🤩 www.rarebookhub.com/articles/3355

Published paper proving that #ChatGPT will always make things up. Not sometimes. Not until the next update. Always. They proved it with math. Even with perfect data and unlimited computing power, AI models will still confidently tell you things that are completely false. arxiv.org/abs/2509.04664

🏷️ @aleximas.bsky.social

NY is proposing to "Impose liability for damages caused by a chatbot impersonating certain licensed professionals." nysenate.gov/legislation/... How does a chatbot trick you into thinking its a doctor? Senators: If you forgot you were conversing with AI, you need a doctor.

Ok I'm in a rabbit hole. If you search "how many decisions do we make in a day" the reported number is almost always 35,000, often reported that this is according to "multiple sources". Yet I can't actually find a single source that backs up that number. Anyone know where this number comes from?

Spicy take of the day: there are _always_ unmeasured confounders. We just make value judgements over how much they matter with respect to Y #statsky #rstats

[ #GenAI-post warning] Almost every researcher I know is using Claude Code, and talking about the huge productivity gains. Are we actually producing more scientific papers yet? Since its release in May 2025, arXiv submissions are indeed *12%* above what we'd expect. Details in thread:

Looks very promising! Thanks for sharing it here

Our paper “Inferring fine-grained migration patterns across the United States” is now out in @natcomms.nature.com! We released a new, highly granular migration dataset. 1/9

Love the NLP: thoughtful application @economist.com

'Taxi' and 'cab' essentially mean the same thing, but 'cab' doesn't come from 'taxicab.' It comes from ‘cabriolet,’ which was a type of light carriage. ‘Taxi’ comes from ‘taximeter,’ which is the device that calculates the amount of a fare based on the distance traveled.

I've released a new version of strgroup, a Stata command that does fuzzy string matching. No new functionality, but the underlying C code has been optimized: it now uses much less memory and runs about 5 times faster github.com/reifjulian/s...

Open Studio with Pop-Up Store: Friday December 12, 16-19h Saturday December 13, 11-18h Join us at: Studio Christoph Niemann Schröderstrasse 2 10115 Berlin shop.christophniemann.com

After becoming a congressional leader, a politician’s stock portfolio beats out those of peers by 47 (!!!) percentage points a year through trades timed around bills and firms that later get government contracts www.nber.org/papers/w34524 via @florianederer.bsky.social

Interesting paper highlight that binning can be misspecified in panel settings - this drives misinterpretation of extreme temperature shocks. #linkoftheday www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/1ya6z...

In light of record submission rates and a large volume of AI-generated slop, SocArXiv recently implemented a policy requiring ORCIDs linked in the OSF profile of submitting authors, and narrowing our focus to social science subjects. Today we are taking two more steps: /1

How to Reproduce this Book Exactly with LaTeX - great resource for writing Latex #linkoftheday github.com/BenjaminGor/...

This is terrifying. "[AI agents] can... infer a researcher's latent hypotheses and produce data that artificially confirms them." ... "We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people" [email protected]

NBER grants to fund research into economic measurement - I find this agenda very compelling and important #linkoftheday www.nber.org/news/nber-la...

Oof, this is super slick! Go check it out 👇🏻

This paper’s been popping as “evidence” that you can’t do real #causalinference w/ obs data. To me it shows you need rigorous pre-specified design (in addition to the willingness to fold when your hypothesis is not possible to answer with the data at hand). #EpiSky, #CausalSky, #AcademicSky

🚨Next time you hire, don’t take it easy! In a new working paper, @elliottash.bsky.social, Jason Sockin, and I show the difficulty of the interview signals to workers whether the job is a good fit. 🚨 Paper link: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Do any other languages (Dutch, German, Spanish) share this quirk, or is English alone in having a verb whose past tense is an exact anagram of its base form?

Are there any other English verbs whose past tense is formed by simply rearranging the same letters (with no additions or deletions) as their present tense — like eat → ate? I can’t think of another example #NLP #linguistics

This study uses computational methods, including #AI, to analyze textbooks from public, religious private, & home schools, focusing on how they portray people, topics, & values over time. Read: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... Subscribe: www.ssrn.com/index.cfm/en... #AICommunity

Ah! Good morning, reality. And welcome. We’ve been expecting you…

Added Finance job decomposition, and Federal Reserve Bank/Board jobs (zero so far this year...)

MIT-hoogleraar Pattie Maes: ‘Niemand snapt hoe taalmodellen werken, ook de bedrijven erachter niet’

🏷️ @barriosecon.bsky.social

Thanks for sharing @florianederer.bsky.social Now that’s art — a true masterpiece!

Agree! 🏷️ @benjaminmangot.bsky.social @johnjhorton.bsky.social

Now that school is starting for lots of folks, it's time for a new release of Speech and Language Processing! Jim and I added all sorts of material for the August 2025 release! With slides to match! Check it out here: web.stanford.edu/~jurafsky/sl...

I love this article by @briancalbrecht.bsky.social in the Wall Street Journal (and not just because I am graciously mentioned by name). He provides a simple but powerful defense of Economics, of the supply and demand framework.

Rings a bell, unfortunately

Summer 2025 Journal of Economic Perspectives Freely Available Online www.aeaweb.org/issues/814

Jonathan Weil in www.wsj.com/finance/inve... What are you looking at? Weil: “The schedule of investments in the fund’s latest annual report listed 1,089 individual private-equity investments in a table that included the fair value and acquisition date for each” 1/2

Happy to see my paper with Tarek Hassan, @aakashkalyani.bsky.social @lvanlent.bsky.social Markus Schwedeler, and Ahmed Tahoun published in the 𝘑𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘰𝘧 𝘌𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘤 𝘗𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘴 𝗧𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗮𝘀 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗶𝗻 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 In it, we discuss how to apply computational linguistics techniques to … 1/7

APOLLO: “.. Nvidia now has the biggest weight in the S&P 500 of any individual stock since the data began in 1981.”

Peter Temin, economic historian at MIT, has passed away. He worked both on problems of understanding the past (e.g. "Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression?") and how how the past shapes the present (e.g. "The Vanishing Middle Class.") Terrific scholar and mentor, generous critic.

Excessive screentime in early age associated with delayed cognitive development, both directly and indirectly through what it crowds out: play, talk, & exploration. But limited use seems fine.

Referees make the journal system work. They are selfless in volunteering their time to ensure that our science continues to progress. All of the great referees out there please know that editors recognize your hard work and tireless effort. We do not always say it, but we do! Thank you.

What a fantastic accomplishment -- and what a fantastic story! www.quantamagazine.org/at-17-hannah...

Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements This is a big deal

It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.

The AI arms race is accelerating as major tech companies add to their already gargantuan levels of spending. The bets are paying off for investors, but not for all employees.

I've been working on a new tool, Refine, to make scholars more productive. If you're interested in being among the very first to try the beta, please read on. Refine leverages the best current AI models to draw your attention to potential errors and clarity issues in research paper drafts. 1/