ZiPS is OUT on Schwarber. Steamer has a similar high-2's WAR projection for next year. Aging's a bitch. blogs.fangraphs.com/old-blood-ph...

Jimmy Fallon would host the Hunger Games.

Sometimes I think people forget that only one team can sign a player. Just like only one team can win the World Series.

This seems better for Schwarber than the Phillies offer, purely on dollars. You take a risk that you can earn $30M in years 4 and 5 hitting the FA market again. Might not, but you might get more, and you're guaranteed 80% as many dollars anyway.

One simplistic way to put a number on Peak value vs Longevity value is to create a cut-off each season at 4 wins. Value up to 4 WAR counts for Longevity, value above 4 WAR counts towards Peak. Add those up over a hitter's career. You get something like this using fWAR since 1955. (Y-axis is Peak)

Will Arnett was on Conan and told a story about how Conan dealt with the death of his parents by accusing Jason Bateman of killing them. It’s so funny.

I'm going to have to return my Relievers Are Fungible club card, because I find myself liking both the Devin Williams deal and the Edwin Diaz deal.

On Tarik Skubal and the Tigers.... "Without Skubs, they're a Mystery Machine." OK, I liked that one.

Kyle Schwarber is 1,070 strikeouts away from Reggie Jackson's all-time record. He needs to average 214 over the course of his five-year deal to reach it. He averaged 202 per year over his first four years in Philadelphia, so he would probably need another contract to get there.

Whatever happened to the adage that old guy skills age out sooner?

You will be visited by three spirits...

I asked ESPN Research and they asked Elias Sports Bureau and they looked back as far as they could (to 1978) and it would appear Jalen Hurts is the first player to ever commit two turnovers in one play. Isn't history beautiful?

Three turnovers on one play lol

Philip Rivers is a grandfather, love it.

BP is raising its price. The goal is to do it once and be done with it. The change goes into effect on January 1. Until then, it's just $46 for a year. www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

The average American League hitter slashed .270/338/.432 over Carlos Delgado's prime (1998-2006.) Life was different then.

andy reid has lost the plot by trying to coach to the culture. one season that might mean taylor swift, but then you get to this year and you’re suddenly 6-7

The new Moneyball.

I have written a book! It is available for sale now. It's a bunch of fun discussions about the leadoff man, including interviews with big names (Johnny Damon, Joe Mauer, John Smoltz, Mookie Betts, Kyle Schwarber and more), fun stories, best moments and, of course, rankings. Pick one up!

Scientists now believe that the human brain--a magic goo for worrying--can also be used to do other things

Kent isn't an awful pick if you value longevity, but he had a whopping TWO seasons of at least 5 fWAR. (Caveat that historical fielding metrics are iffy applies, as always.)

Why is the AFC-only matchup of Bills vs Bengals on Fox?

My dad abhors any negative comments about immigrants. Asked him recently why he’s so strong on it: ‘Because we’re always happy to take the rich and clever ones. Which means it’s not about disliking immigrants. It’s about disliking the poor and vulnerable. And that’s a bad human instinct.’

Florida upside down is the Grinch

Indiana deserves a Moneyball-style novel.

The WAR graphs also help with logical consistency. Ok, Dale Murphy is a Hall of Famer. Then you have to bring along David Wright and Nomar (and Utley and others.) Great! (And voting for those guys doesn't mean you *have* to vote for Mattingly or Kent.)

Nomar (And Wright) don't need more peak seasons. To match Carlos Beltran, a no-doubt Hall of Fame career (ignoring trash cans), they need three more 4 WAR seasons and a handful of 2-3 WAR seasons.

When I think Hall of Famer, I think about all those 3 WAR performances, yup. Just can't get enough of those Taylor Ward-caliber seasons, that's a what a Hall of Famer is all about.

HBO Max putting out a remastered version of this post where you can see the friends

I have a (100% correct) hot take on tie-breakers. Head-to-head results should be ignored. Instead look at the quality of the teams each team lost to. Why? Say two college football teams were both 10-1, but A lost to B. That's an understandable loss for A. B probably lost to a worse team!

Who's your Hall of Fame pick from these hitters? As an unabashed peak guy (greatness trumps longevity), I think it's orange or blue... (Players matched with colors in the alt text. Yes, you can 100% disagree with fWAR, especially for fielding.)

While I'm making friends, it's as good a time as any to announce my annual Winter Meetings subscription sale. Take 25% off an annual sub to Cup of Coffee! That's $52.50 a year for five newsletters a week. Baseball. Politics. Culture. Horseshit. I got it all, folks.

cake had all these songs about cars but the cars didn't have any songs about cake

I linked to this yesterday, but it's worth bringing up again. When I first started doing analytics, it was the base assumption that players are, on average, the same. Now I am more interested in what *changes* them. This highlights one cause. www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...

Is there pitch data on Ponce available anywhere?

We have our own version of 'expected stats' - based on the type of batted ball, where hitters hit the ball and how hard they hit it In Stat of the Week, we look at which hitters most outperformed their expected OPS. Nick Kurtz, Harrison Bader + more www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2025/12/02/s...

The Bills need a wide receiver so bad. (And/or Kincaid back.) Was looking at some advanced stats yesterday and their top WR was ranked 50th among 117 who qualified or something like that.

This is happening across the entire country; prosecutions are down because federal agents are rounding up migrants instead.

Devin Williams had 10 appearances where he gave up 2+ runs last year. Those days vs season total: K/PA: 15% vs 35% BB/PA: 24% vs 10% FB Stuff+: 105 vs 103 CH Stuff+: 121 vs 125 Loc+ 88 vs 101 Yeah, he lost his control somewhat, but not his stuff. Probably made worse by easily readable pitches.

Real ID tangent: many people can renew their passport online. It's easy and arrives within a few weeks.

Highest strikeout rate in second half, min 25 IP: Mason Miller: 51.1% Devin Williams: 39.3% Jeremiah Estrada: 38.4% Andrew Kittredge: 38.3% Edwin Diaz: 38.1%

Devin Williams contract at 3/45 (adjusted for deferred money) seems like a good deal. And if a reliever contract seem like a good deal, it's probably great. His Stuff was as good as usual, with K-BB and ERA estimators about as good as usual. BABIP and LOB% drove the high ERA. No qualms for 2026.

girl i am SO glad that your mystery true love time-traveled to find you so you can be together just in time for christmas but PLEASE get that boy vaccinated. also how are you at identity theft? cause he's gonna need a social security card

Just signed up for a half marathon in 6 months. Guess I have to get my shit together, eh? (Covered Bridges HM in Vermont. Point to point, in beautiful Vermont, near my alma mater, with two buddies. Let's go!)

The Mick is phenomenal.

🚨 For Cyber Monday, yearly subscriptions to The Mets Newsletter are 20 percent off until midnight ET tonight! To put it another way, you'd pay for eight months of the newsletter but really get 12. It's highway robbery basically. 🚨 themetsnewsletter.com/subscribe

Bought myself a Kickr Climb for Black Friday. If you know you know.