How bad would each NBA team be if their current leader in WAR was replaced by a replacement-level player? - Detroit drops from #1 to #3 seed, whereas OKC drops to #7 - Among top 8 teams, Orlando just hangs in, drops least - OKC (and others) has subs better than replacement level

Portland has a 20-22 record and have a 12% chance to make the playoffs in the West. Atlanta has a 20-23 record and has a 54% chance to make the playoffs in the East. www.espn.com/nba/bpi/_/vi...

Somehow the Celtics' offense this year is only slightly worse than last year - Better in transition and putbacks, not halfcourt - Playing bigs less (Garza/Queta), but those bigs are playing a little better than last year's bigs - Offsets decline from wings, who are still solid

Knicks' offensive rating has declined by 6 points since winning the Cup. Their defensive rating has also declined by 6 points since then, making for a 12 net points overall decline. Basically, it's their main guys playing a lot worse. Not just one of them either.

On 1/13, LeBron posted a 31/9/10 line, that being Pts/Reb/Ast. His total net points for the game was at +4.8. espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2... I was surprised that his net points were as low as +4.8, but I had also felt like I'd seen a few cases like this. So I started looking. 1/4

Something I tried to emphasize in the comparison to the first book: Basketball on Paper was about measuring team and player performance. Basketball Beyond Paper is about how to *change* performance.

Dylan Harper has hit some hard times. Defenses are backing off to see if he can make a jumper and, so far, he can't. Neither can Stephon Castle, though, who actually has a lower on-ball perimeter gravity than Harper (www.nba.com/inside-the-g...)

Clutch Player of the Day: OG Anunoby The clutch window in the Knicks' win over the Blazers yesterday was mostly between 5:00 in Q4 to 3:13, where they went from down 1 to up 8. In that time, OG Anunoby produced +4.8 net points, going 2/2 on 3s and assisting on the other 3.

The Nuggets are 4-3 since Jokic went down. That is better than most people thought, for sure. What's crazy is that they are clearly a lot worse on offense (~10 pts) and essentially the same on defense. They're just scrapping out close games, 4-1 on games decided by 5 or less.

A lot of clutch highlights from yesterday. These were the best clutch players yesterday - Paolo was among the worst this year until yesterday - SGA had a 52% share of OKC's possession in clutch time - Egor Demin played great in the clutch, but Brooklyn lost - Eason almost a hero

Rookie update - Top 4 picks are in the top 7 rookies thus far - #5 pick Ace Bailey way down - Knueppel can win the stat race as a rookie, but ROY voters tend to vote for who they think will have the best career and Flagg's performance has been good enough to maintain that notion

The Wizards are 7-5 in their last 12 games after a 3-20 start. A breakdown of why. - Twice the improvement on D than O - Some 3pt D luck change, but also better defending 2s and limiting transition - On O, big reduction in TOV, improvement on 2s 1/2 espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA...

Consistently good and consistently not-bad players - Good means +2 net pts or better in a game - Not bad means -2 net pts or better in a game - SGA just had his 2nd bad G last night - SGA, Mitchell, Wemby have big differences between performance in wins vs losses

LeBron's best game of the year last night with +9.2 net points added in a game they won by 6, so a threshold win. He needed this many games to get +9.2 in a game in past years: 25-26: 17 24-25: 9 23-24: 11 22-23: 28 21-22: 9 20-21: 18 19-20: 2 18-19: 14 espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...

Best players by quarter on a per-100 poss basis, no garbage time - A lot of usual names - Keldon Johnson is reasonable Most Improved candidate - Goga not scoring a lot in Q3, but D is great and shooting 86% - OT: DeRozan, SGA, Jokic, Keyonte George, Ant

Best bench players (fixed) - Ajay Mitchell good on both sides of the ball. Garza, Spencer, Sheppard good on O - Jaquez at +0.8, 14th - (Wemby came off the bench 6 times, posting +4.6 net pts/G) - Only games they came off the bench

Bottom 10 players in clutch performance (offensive net points) - Two rookies: Coward, Queen - Embiid can't get to the line, turns it over a lot - None of these guys ranks higher than 91st in overall O performance (non-clutch)

If Jokic doesn't play another minute this year, he has posted 214 Total net points. That is more than all but four players posted during the entire previous season, one of those four being himself. espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts

VJ Edgecombe has been good in the clutch this year, +4.5 offensive net pts/100 tm poss, shooting an effective 78%. But Cooper Flagg has been essentially equally good at +4.4, getting to the line a ton. Both are top 15 in the league in total offensive net pts added in the clutch

Players who have shown in-season changes in productivity - Green = Improvers, Red = Decliners - Randle, Mathurin, Maxey hot O starts now cooling - MPJ getting better - 3 OKC players decline - Brunson, Reaves, Murray showing D declines

Below is Chris Paul's aggregate net points by date this year. There is a pause on Nov 6 and, when he returns, it's all downhill. It's a statistically significant decline in performance and fits with the story here: www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...

Offensive productivity is a function of how efficient players are and how much they use possessions. - More of each is better as long as their efficiency is above a certain level - Low usage Butler can still be productive with his high efficiency espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100

Triple-doubles this year - Jokic has the most, worth an average of +6.2 net points per game. He has one game with net pts below zero - Banchero had one yesterday. He's averaged just +1.6 in his and his +/- was negative in each - On average, triple-doubles worth +4.7 net pts/G

These are the most inconsistent players this year, using +3 and -3 net points as cutoffs for good/bad games. (To anticipate questions: "Consistent" players are either consistent good, bad, or average, so that's 3 different lists.)

Kawhi's 55-pt night last night was the 2nd best game of the year, posting +19.0 net pts in a game they won by 13 (a threshold win - where they "would have lost" without him). The 42% usage was his highest since his first year in LA, his best year in LA. espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...

Joining @dlocke09.bsky.social and special guests including @deanolytics.bsky.social on tonight's JazzCast Nerd Edition against the Magic for Jazz+ subscribers. Our alternate broadcast is also available as a one-off purchase in qualifying markets here: www.segplus.com/utahjazzplus...

And the third-year NBA players - Jordan Walsh has snuck onto this list - Jaquez has cooled off after a great start - Thompsons are solid, 3pt shooting hurting - Despite good highlights yesterday, #2 pick Brandon Miller has struggled, espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...

Sophomore update - Picks 1 and 2, Risacher and Sarr, down toward the bottom - Picks 3 and 4, Sheppard and Castle, near the top. - Picks 5 and 7, Holland and Clingan, solid. Pick 6 is Salaun who hasn't played a lot, but has been better than before.

This, for the record, is yesterday's best/worst in the NBA. ESPNAnalytics.com also has breakdowns for why players are good or bad, as well as player gamelogs (click player names), and enhanced box scores. espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-su...

"I want to thank the Lord for Tyler Kolek," said Jalen Brunson last night. Kolek has had four straight good games. He just had back-to-back career bests in net points. Three straight nights of career best at the rim. espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...

A few other players who seem to play better at one position over the other (this year alone): - KD, at the 3: +5.2 total/48 min | at the 4: -3.8 - Markkanen, 3/4: +3.7 | 5: -8.6 - JJJ, 4: +1.5 | 5: -2.0 - Filipowski, 5: +0.6 | 4: -1.8 - Ben Saraf, 1: +0.5 | 2: -11.0

Anthony Davis when he plays the 4 or the 5 - Generally better as a 5 on both sides of the ball, but there are some years better at the 4 - Played more at the 4 in 2020 and 2021

The Spurs' defensive rating with Wemby on the court last night was the worst of any game this year. When Wemby was defending Robinson especially, he either had to stick on Robinson to limit second shots or leave him and allow that potential.

Last night, Tyler Kolek had the best game of his NBA career. It was in a game that was widely watched, which likely means that the public thinks he's better than he is. espnanalytics.com/nba-player-g...

Tonight's Louisville-Tennessee men's game features six prospects. This listing of prospects is just a small part of our NBA Draft Simulator espnanalytics.com/nba-draft-si...

After last night's performance, Cooper Flagg has had 6 good games in his last 7 (vs good competition). It was 7 of 19 prior to then. This is now suggestive of in-season growth. The change in trend is barely significant at the 5% level, so it could still be noise.

Since the Clippers sent Chris Paul home, they won their first game and lost the subsequent four. The defense was good in the first two games. Worst in NBA vs isos - that's the most glaring issue across play types and it's all the guys. Post-ups, pindowns also bad. (GeniusIQ)

Warriors vs Blazers NET POINTS Data via espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2... For those interested in Net Points bookmark espnanalytics.com you can click on NBA daily summary to get awards, stats, & charts for each game. And follow the creator @deanolytics.bsky.social who posts Net Points data here

Kings notes: - 2nd worst point differential - Their bench is +4.4 net pts better per G than their starters, biggest diff in the league. Schroder, Russ, Achiuwa, Eubanks all play better off bench than as starters - Many players having near-worst years. espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100

Not surprisingly, Steph Curry ranks #1 in terms of value added through three-point shots per-game at +2.8. Go to the following page, choose Best: Three-Pointers Per Game and go through the seasons to see Steph near the top (except injured year). espnanalytics.com/nba-award-le...

The Lakers beat the Suns by 2, with about +13 of that due to rebounding. On the graph at the bottom of the box score below, you can see all the Lakers on one side of the red line, all Suns on the other. - Also notice Lakers bench killed the Suns'. espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...

Since starting off an unlikely 5-0, the Bulls have gone 5-15. Here are their players' net pts breakdowns early v late. - Basically equal drop on O and D - Vooch, Huerter biggest declines - 3s: they made 40%, allowed 30% to start, best difference in NBA. 35%/38% since.

When I see that Cleveland lost and Donovan Mitchell shot 6/24, I check again to see where he ranks in differential between performance in wins vs losses. He puts up +10.7 net pts/48 min in wins, just +0.5 in losses, third biggest diff in the league. espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id=2...

Rookie update: - Picks #1 through #4 all in top 11 now. Flagg and Knueppel have the most games of at least +1 net points. - Queen had a little run but has fallen back recently - Charlotte's 3 rookies were big in their win yesterday and the Hornets have passed the Bulls in BPI

Random Friday note: Luka Doncic has the most points scored off his live turnovers in the league, 5.2 per game Devin Booker is second at 4.6 Josh Giddey at 4.2 James Harden is at 4.0 Deni Avdija at 3.7 is 5th

Here are the best sophomores by a few components of Net Pts/G: - Zach Edey (injured again) didn't qualify for Glass Cleaner - Tidjane Salaun would be top 6 3pt shooting and Glass Cleaner if qualified For overall sophomore performance, espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100 set Draft Year = 2024.

Here are some of the best rookie by a few components of Net Pts/G: - Driving: Dylan Harper - 3pt shooting: Knueppel - Facilitator (asts, bad passes): Flagg - Glass cleaning (rebs): Harper Last one surprises me some Overall best rookies available at espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts100

The Suns/Spurs are in the Cup Elimination round. They also have the greatest increase in chance to make the playoffs (+46%), per BPI. What they changed to get there is pretty different. SA: Putback O and D, transition D, HC 2 D PHO: forcing TO, ORebs espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4FA

With just two games yesterday, I watched the NBA highlights and tracked who they highlighted, then compared it to performance in the game. - Correlation is ~0.5. Not the full story, but not terrible - Herro, Banchero, Barnes had the most mentions with negative Net Pts

The offensive explosion in the NBA has created a broader range of performance than we've seen before. If you look at our leaderboard for individual player performances, you'll see SGA and Jokic with offensive values over +9 per 100 possessions. Crazy high numbers. 1/6