The Analytics don’t always say go for it!!!!!

MODEL LIKED PUNT BY A LOT

We like punt here, I believe.

Deleted last tweet on go for it ... lookahead heavily influenced by clock here so we'll see what the post-snap says when it knows the actual clock.

Packers should go for 2 here. Find out now if a FG wins it for you or not -- helps your decision-making next drive -- instead of the unknown of OT.

The Eagles and Packers combined for four pass attempts of 10 air yards or more in the first half (not counting throwaways). All four were incomplete.

Packers currently rocking a cool -38% pass rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

That's a Jalyx Hunt sack but a Jaelan Phillips sack created.

Sam Darnold didn't actually even have enough plays in Seattle's blowout win yesterday to qualify for the QBR leaderboard for the week. (He had an 82.4)

The Titans didn't play in Week 10, but their chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick increased.

Double team rate at defensive tackle (x) by pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (y) through yesterday's games. (ESPN Analytics / NFL Next Gen Stats)

Highest pass rush win rate at edge in Week 10 thus far. It pays to play against the Chargers (backup) tackles.

Broke out every NFL team into 9 playoff tiers -- from Super Bowl contenders to wait 'til next year's and everything in between! www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

Kyle Shanahan failed the down 8 test ❌❌❌ (Ball don’t lie edition)

Week 10 PRWR leaders through the Sunday early window

Here's our decision analysis from that play espnanalytics.com/decision

Giants FG today was the first 19-yard FG of the year that was not on the final play before halftime.

Just watched the Browns commit a game-ending offsides penalty

Kevin O’Connell passed the down 8 test ✅✅✅

Bears should go for 2 here.

Lamar’s influence as a rushing threat always fun to see in the dots

myles price giveth, myles price taketh

oh my god stingley

I don't have an exact number on purposefully trying not to score on Patriots first down. My ~instinct~ is it's not worth it. Scoring from the 1 is less certain than it seems (don't forget about penalties!!) and the most important thing for WP is coming away from that possession with a TD.

Model did not like Texans kick decision down 17

Browns special teams playing the long game

No one takes Emeka Egbuka, touchdown dots! (NFL Next Gen Stats)

Last-minute Week 10 prep! Notes, nuggets, fantasy and betting advice and predictions! www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

If both teams have timeouts but are letting the clock run out toward the end of the half, it means someone is making a mistake. It's a zero-sum game*! *(almost always)

Huge No. 1 pick leverage today in East Rutherford. Chance to earn top pick in draft, per FPI Browns w/ win: 6% Browns w/ loss: 27% Jets w/ win: 8% Jets w/ loss: 27%

Underrated part of the Jets Sauce Gardner trade: acquiring AD Mitchell. Mitchell ranked 8th among WRs in open score last year -- tied with Tyreek Hill and Zay Flowers. Exactly the kind of player a team like the Jets should be betting on. Here's a sampling of some missed downfield Mitchell plays.

Sack and tackle props are now up in our Week 10 betting guide! www.espn.com/espn/betting...

Week 10 betting guide from Matt Bowen, @benjaminsolak.bsky.social and me! I'll add defensive props over the weekend when they become available. Will I break my 7-week losing streak on receiving yard alts? Let's find out! www.espn.com/espn/betting...

The Bo Nix stat I keep looking at: On throws over 10 yards, his off target rate is 39% (32nd). When he’s in a clean pocket, that falls to…37% (also 32nd).

Chance to earn No. 1 overall pick, per FPI Saints 27% Titans 27% Browns 20% Jets 15% Raiders 5% Dolphins 4%

ESPN content Part I: I sat in for @sethwalder.bsky.social on this week's Week 10 game previews with a bold prediction for each game based on stats. www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

My grades and analysis are up for the Quinnen Williams deal. A horrific trade for the Cowboys. www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

Sauce Gardner trade: a home run for the Jets. www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

Just filed my grades for the Sauce Gardner deal, but here's a preview: *incredibly* good deal for the Jets.

Key factor in Sauce deal: only a $13.75 million signing bonus. In addition to his salaries, he has a $20 million option bonus in 2026 and a $10 million option bonus in 2027. In other words, if they didn't change the contract Colts are taking on most of it.

An FAQ on Commanders QB Jayden Daniels injury and how the team moves forward in his absence. With contributions from @johnkeimespn.bsky.social @dangraziano.bsky.social @sethwalder.bsky.social @jordanreid.bsky.social and me! www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

This is still pretty experimental work, but I’ve been spending some time looking at where receivers run routes and where opposing defense allow targets, using NFL Next Gen Stats data. The question: does that help us predict a receiver’s production in an upcoming game?

Grading trades throughout this deadline season. You can find them all, including today's Jaelan Phillips deal, here: www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

lol, but actually

JSN's move was so good it looks like Trey Amos' dot was glitching

are the seahawks going to score 100 points

Our model preferred punt

4th down analysis for Jags 4th-and-goal at the 1 in OT

In overtime, the 2-point strategy is extremely clear. First team must kick PAT. Second team, in a TD-TD situation, must go for 2.

Jaguars won the coin toss and opted for first possession. Possible I missed one but I think it's the first time the coin toss winner chose that. @benjaminsolak.bsky.social and I surveyed NFL analytics staffers and wrote about this question in the preseason! www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...