Pelton is a legend. This is great.

Board game folks: my friend Akshay made a game! It's a simple, elegant strategy game. I have played it. It's fun! And it has five days left on kickstarter! www.kickstarter.com/projects/akd...

Update on calibration of my free agency contract projection model. Feel pretty good about this!

Dug this as a means of, essentially, calibration of free agency signings

I gave out some variety of A to 10 free agent signings and six trades (for one team). These are those 16 transactions: www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

A friend of mine recently created a free season-long fantasy baseball tool. Granted, I'm biased -- but I think it's pretty great! rotohound.com It let's you import your league and has a draft assistant, trade analyzer and projected standings for your league.

Curious to see the deal with the Fields contract in this trade. My guess here would be Jets take on all the money they had guaranteed him and Fields takes a pay cut down from the remaining $10M.

This is pretty wild! Would have turned an already-bad trade for the Ravens -- regardless of what they found in the physical -- into a terrible one! Baltimore is very fortunate to have dodged this.

Initial results comparing my FA contract model's predictions to actual results for contracts OTC has so far. Model is based primarily on media rankings. Very happy with these results! A testament to @greggrosenthal.bsky.social, @profootballfocus.bsky.social, Matt Bowen and Daniel Popper, too!

We're up to 50 transactions in my free agency and trade grades story here. Including Daniel Jones and Trey Hendrickson contracts from earlier today! www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

lol

should I grade the ravens not trading two firsts for maxx crosby now

would be hilarious if the cowboys call up the packers right now and tell 'em actually we don't want rashan gary anymore

free agency grades! lots of 'em! www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

Check the Oweh and Mafe forecasts 😈😈😈

grades grades grades grades grades grades grades www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

Vast majority of the time "market-setting" contracts are not actually. It's just reflective of cap inflation. But Linderbaum's contract VERY MUCH is. If we put past contracts into 2026 dollars, the previous high at center since 2011 was Ragnow in 2021 at $22.3M APY per OTC. Linderbaum got $27M.

Feel good about this one: model had Wan'Dale at $19.4M per year. He got $19.5! bsky.app/profile/seth...

More than for most players the fully guaranteed at signing number is what matters for Willis. If he fails, it's what the Dolphins will pay. If he succeeds, they'll have to give him a new contract anyway.

I'll be grading trades and free agent signings throughout the day as always. Grades for Minkah Fitzpatrick and Rashan Gary deals are up! www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

When it comes to trade/cut/free agency decisions, the $$ number that matters is the change in cash spending. What's the difference between how much we pay a player in cash if we keep them or if we cut/trade them? What matters is *how much* you pay a player, not when that money hits the cap.

Let's try this again: Just ahead of free agency, here are the top 90 APY predictions from my media-rankings-based free agency contract model. Updated to remove signed free agents, add newly-added free agents, and reflect latest rankings.

Just ahead of free agency, here are the top 90 APY predictions from my media-rankings-based free agency contract model. Updated to remove signed free agents, add newly-added free agents, and reflect latest rankings.

Highest APY for cornerbacks since 2015 if we adjust for cap inflation to 2026 environment: Sauce Gardner (2025): $32.5M Derek Stingley Jr. (2025): $32.4M Marshon Lattimore (2021): $32.0M Trent McDuffie (2026): $31.0M Jalen Ramsey (2020): $30.4M Source: @overthecap.bsky.social and nflreadr

My grades and analysis for the Maxx Crosby trade: www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

Trade grades for all the deals thus far! www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

Trade grades are up for the DJ Moore trade! Five trades in this offseason and I haven't handed out a single variation of a B once. Lots of good/bad trades so far! www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

DJ Moore signed a four-year, $110 million extension prior to the 2024 season. Then he had a disappointing year in 2024 and a worse year in 2025. You would think his stock would have dropped dramatically. But the contract the Bills are taking on is not that much cheaper...

Per Adam Schefter, the Bills decided to guarantee $15.5 million of DJ Moore's *2028* salary. This was already a bad trade for Buffalo given Moore's contract as it was but throwing in 2028 fully guaranteed money just because is bizarre and makes the deal worse.

A data point we can compare to my contract model's prediction!

New project I’m excited about: a model that forecasts free agent contracts based primarily on media rankings. The model utilizes rankings from ESPN (Matt Bowen), NFL.com (@greggrosenthal.bsky.social), the Athletic (Daniel Popper) and PFF.

I think I would have franchise tagged Alec Pierce and rolled the dice on Jones. Realize the latter is scary, but my ~pure guess~ is other teams wouldn't have been excited to pay Daniel Jones knowing he'd miss most of 2026. And then Colts could have brought him back for less / with 2027 in contract.

Why the Lions came out way ahead in the David Montgomery deal

Talked about the Tytus Howard trade and why I think it’s a misallocation of Cleveland’s resources

The Colts promoted Ashleigh Prugh from Football Analytics Fellow to Football Data Analyst, per source.

The Lions fleeced the Texans in the David Montgomery deal: www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

The Browns spent a significant chunk of their limited resources on a below average starter in Tytus Howard. I'm not a fan of the trade! www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

I find it crazy that the NFL sets the salary cap so close to the start of FA. Yes, I know teams know roughly what it will be, but they've also already started making 2026 decisions! Like a dynasty fantasy league would not stand for cap not being set while cut decisions have already been made.

Excited for Drive to Survive as always but my annual complaint: it comes out way too late! Page is already turned to 2026. And Hard Knocks' turnaround shows that it clearly be done much earlier.

Analytics transaction: the Raiders are hiring Rohit Mogalayapalli from the Texans, per sources. He had been Assistant Director of Special Projects and Game Management in Houston.

New podcast: @sethwalder.bsky.social and I pick ideal free agent signings for each AFC team, including players like Jaelan Phillips, Malik Willis, and Tyler Linderbaum! tinyurl.com/4nmepwum

The 49ers are hiring an R&D intern: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/fo...

Cowboys have a football analytics internship opening ⬇️⬇️⬇️

[Schefter] Ravens director of football strategy/assistant quarterbacks coach Daniel Stern is leaving Baltimore to accept a job with the Seattle Seahawks, possibly as their pass-game strategist. But he is off to Seattle. twitter.com/AdamSchefter...

Cade is the best, you always want to hear him on the draft. Ron is at least medium.

Early 2026 predictions from our crew of analysts. Super Bowl, MVP and more! www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

the final and official darnold meter chart of super bowl LX darnold-meter.com

Yes, this was the big error. And surprising because of how obvious it was to go for it. Down 12, 4th and 1 in the 3rd quarter? Shouldn't even have to think about it.

There was not a single 4th down go in the Super Bowl!

Super Bowl QBRs Sam Darnold: 53.0 Drake Maye: 16.3