The basic philosophy of America’s business elite: “I’m not political, I just find that fascism makes me richer.”

Merz offers up an unmistakable warning to the US in his MSC speech: Your power is not what it once was. China is gaining ground. The strategy set out in the NSS will accelerate this trend. If you go it alone, you will run up against your limits. Europe rejects MAGA free speech and tariffs.

'wishful thinking and waiting it out are not a strategy' warn RUSI Director-General Rachel Ellehuus and @annwieanna.bsky.social Director, Northern Europe at @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social in their @euractiv.com op-ed as leaders gather at @munsecconf.bsky.social.

Tune in to the latest BBC Radio 4's Briefing Room where RUSI's @burcuozcelik.bsky.social among other guests join @davidsonofaaron.bsky.social to discuss the stability of the Iranian regime in the aftermath of the protests in January.

Just dropped: my interview on Roland Elliott Brown's podcast The Orwellians talking about my new book #KGBLiterati and #KGB spies & counterspies who wrote spy fiction. #intelhistory #writers #ColdWar @socintelhist.bsky.social www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5op...

Explore the latest issue of the RUSI Journal, newly redesigned with a fresh look and feel. This edition reflects on shifting defence and security narratives and features articles on education and training for the future. Read the latest issue: https://bit.ly/4rdnYYZ

Sometimes very hard not to feel like the rest of the country has abandoned Minnesota. We STILL have ICE everywhere. Our schools, businesses, and economy are in profound crisis. But without Bovino here throwing tear gas, much of the country seems to not care at all what’s being done to us.

Thanks as always for helpful explanations, in which despite your caution I detect a few small glimmers of hope.

Now more details in the Epstein files reveal Bannon as part of a successful plot to topple Theresa May with Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Mogg, here’s an article from the archive about Johnson and Bannon’s collaboration bylinetimes.com/2023/04/24/b...

"Switzerland’s military has terminated its contract with Palantir… following a security audit… concluded that U.S. intelligence agencies could potentially access sensitive Swiss defense data… significant reputational warning for the data analytics firm" www.newscase.com/palantirs-sw... #R4Today

'This is so big I can't believe I'm part of it': at lightning speed, Sweden has conceived and launched an electricity-repair crew reserve. I had the privilege of writing about this extremely impressive undertaking for @prospectmagazine.co.uk. No paywall. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/pol...

Thanks to readers for so many questions - more than can be answered in one post. Topics covered include implications of Ukraine being able to counterattack now, why Putin keeps on going, threats to UK, China, arms control, and House of Dynamite (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...

A fair amount of nonsense has been written and said about the "security vetting" process for Mandelson's appointment. I wrote about what "Developed Vetting" really involves and why it's perfectly possible that it found nothing useful about Mandelson. arthursnell.substack.com/p/the-vettin...

So Starmer, a man who never met Epstein but made a bad appointment, might resign. But Trump, his closest friend, fellow sex abuser and coverer-upper of his crimes, is going nowhere. That’s how it works, isn’t it?

An opinion I pretty firmly hold is that everyone should make a song, paint a painting, act in something, and write a book even if all of those things end up being objectively terrible

"Spotting a bad actor who fails to master the art of secret communication is relatively easy. It is extraordinary that so many of Epstein’s interlocutors were happy to use email. But for all we know there are other bad actors whose conversations will never be traced." 👏 @nickmacpherson.bsky.social

An excellent letter.

Russia continues to answer diplomacy with missiles. We are determined to make that choice painfully expensive. Today, we present our 20th sanctions package. Sanctions severely hurt Russia’s economy. And every sanction chips away at its capacity for war. (1/9)

No joke: I got angry hate mail today for writing an obituary of a Black woman scientist—because the person felt she did didn’t deserve the recognition. Which just makes me want to share it again: www.nature.com/articles/d41...

In the beginning of your career and have a passion for security and defence? As part of RUSI NextGen you get the chance to connect with peers and senior experts in international affairs, defence and security through our exclusive events. Apply to join: https://my.rusi.org/membership/nextgen.html

It's six years today since Britain left the EU. I wrote this on Brexit day in 2020, about the strategic dilemmas to which European membership had once been the answer and that would now reopen once Britain left. I'd stand by most of it today. gladstonediaries.blogspot.com/2020/01/brex...

“America is not losing a chess match to China’s hackers. It is failing a safety inspection of its own making,” argues Shaoyu Yuan.

“Contrary to what you would expect, I do not want a simple house. I want a complex house, because the house will define my world.” Beautiful piece this:

Wonderful drawing from "History and Anecdotes of the New York Branch Office of Naval Intelligence in World War I" privately printed in about 1919. The only copy in existence, AFAIK, is at the Naval War College.

'Combined, this brings the number of shadow tankers likely felled or significantly damaged by Ukraine in 2025 up to at least 11, including eight crude oil tankers' writes Edward Wrong in the latest RUSI Commentary.

Good interview with Richard Moore, in which he discusses the less well known work of "reports officers", as opposed to case officers. "Their job is to handle the material coming in from the field. They do all of that due diligence" samf.substack.com/p/how-mi6-wo...

🧵 New paper | Nuclear Deterrence in a Shifting Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture. In our new paper, @ddolzikova.bsky.social examines how nuclear deterrence in Europe is being reshaped by persistent threats of Russian aggression, uncertainty over US commitments, and growing strategic competition.

"I was in Afghanistan after 13 years of war—long after the exciting newness wore off and as domestic political opposition raged—and we still had Czech, Lithuanian, and Polish special forces, as well as conventional Australian, British, Bulgarian, Canadian, and Romanian units with us in Kandahar."

1) The U.S. Embassy in Copenhagen removed 44 Danish flags placed to honor the 44 Danish soldiers who died in Afghanistan. The flags were set up in flowerbeds outside the embassy as a solemn tribute — now taken down. This wounds many Danish hearts. Link: www.tv2lorry.dk/koebenhavn/4...

A very useful statement from Richard on how things actually work.

My great pleasure to speak to @samirpuri.bsky.social of @chathamhouse.org about how the world is moving on from Trump. open.spotify.com/episode/6zWO...

🎙️ Bonus episode of Global Security Briefing is out now. Tune in to hear from Rachel Ellehuus, Director-General, RUSI as she discusses the state of the US-Greenland-Denmark discussions, and the potential lasting impact on the transatlantic relationship and NATO. Listen here: https://bit.ly/49MxwUI

'Leaders often value power more highly than prosperity. For regimes that equate survival with strategic success, economic contraction may be an acceptable price for political security' writes Dr Richard Connolly in the latest RUSI Commentary.

For @economist.com subscribers: tune in at 6pm for the latest episode of Inside Defence. I interview Will Marshall of Planet Labs on how AI & other technology is changing Earth-observation from space, open source intel & how US-Europe tensions affect the industry. www.economist.com/insider/insi...

This is possibly my favourite quote about politics. paw.princeton.edu/article/stil...

Kevin Riehle is right: "Russian services hope low-level agents will progress & handle them that way, just as their Soviet predecessors did. They are not disposable from the outset, even if some get caught." This is why it is important to study #intelhistory. www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/01/23/d...

No thanks Mr Trump. A free post open.substack.com/pub/davidaar...

Thanks for drawing attention to this. Definitely worth watching.

In my forthcoming book on the men and women of the FO in WWII, I tell the story of the UN Charter negotiations. Here is a 🧵on how the Board of Peace compares. A question to start. Which Charter reads more like the prospectus for a posh golf club? A clue is in the adoption ceremony for each 1/11

No other major country will join a Board where Trump wields all the power. It should focus on one issue: to deliver Phase 2 of the Gaza plan. If the BofP can oversee an international force, disarming of Hamas, Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction it will show that it is much more than a golf club.

The Foreign Office negotiators well knew in 1945 that the veto power built a serious weakness into the UN. But it was the only way to get the US/Soviets on board. That’s why they were already drawing up a blueprint in 1945 for a collective defence organisation among allies against Stalin. 10/11

Where I am, the news is mostly focused on the massive US military buildup around Iran, with speculation that Trump might attack any day and that Iran might respond with missiles on Israel.

Why is it that UK government has more executive power with fewer constraints than other democratic countries yet continually complain that they can’t get anything done. @samfr.bsky.social explores the paradox and suggests remedies. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/who-runs-b...

The true danger posed by Donald Trump www.economist.com/leaders/2026...

Quite glad that the big story in British politics is whether Andy Burnham will apply to stand in a by-election and not people being gunned down by state militias. Solidarity with Minnesotans resisting this barbarity.

The Spy Whom We Love www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-spy-wh...

Earlier today we hosted an exclusive briefing for RUSI Members during which a panel of experts explored the implications of President Trump’s threats to annex Greenland. RUSI Members can watch the full recording here: https://bit.ly/3M2jC7F Not a Member? Find out more here: https://bit.ly/3siJl1P

'Since initiating resource nationalism, it has been easier for the Venezuelan ruling class to buy off potential opposition than to figure out how to sustainably develop their country' writes Jason Pack, host of @disordershow.bsky.social in the latest RUSI Commentary.