Despite intelligence dominance in the war with Iran, events suggest the US intelligence community is having little influence on White House decision-making. Read the latest RUSI Commentary by Dan Lomas (@sandbaggerone.bsky.social) and @mtsavill.bsky.social.

Some wise and rather touching words to the House of Lords from the retiring Lord Hennessy. Paras 4-9 in particular are well worth reading. www.theyworkforyou.com/lords/?id=20...

Collective intelligence offers a powerful way to approach complex public challenges by bringing together citizens and experts. In a new blog, Kathy Peach explores how our Centre for Collective Intelligence can help strengthen the Casey Commission's work on adult social care.

If a political party has links to the US Christian Right - like Reform does - it's coming for abortion rights: plain as the nose on your face.

Next up, I'll be talking about the book in London to @csns-uk.bsky.social, King's College London, at 12pm on 23 June. I imagine we’ll have plenty to talk about…Further details here: www.kcl.ac.uk/events/book-...

In Africa, the approach to security threats fails when it neglects to replace the social functions these armed groups perform in their regions. Read the latest RUSI Commentary by Natascha Hryckow.

Beria's top secret report to Stalin dated Oct. 14, 1944, released by kgbveikla.lt last week, reveals how many anti-Soviet rebels were killed & captured by #NKVD/#NKGB from Feb. to Sept. 1944. Western Ukraine 38,087 (k) / 31,808 (c) Western Belarus 444 (k) / 927 (c) Lithuania 415 (k) / 1,635 (c)

Exactly. And she did nothing to stop Nord Stream. She may not be quite as compromised as Schröder, but her willingness to accommodate Russia makes her quite unsuitable to speak for the EU in current circumstances.

Here is a link to Lord Peter Hennessy’s speech. Worth watching! parliamentlive.tv/Download/Ind...

Sweden is going to buy four French FDI frigates in one of the largest defense acquisition deals for Sweden ever: www.dn.se/sverige/ett-...

Dave Musgrove and I explore here the stories in Peace Makers of how British diplomats helped win the war and shape the peace. And not just the men! Women played a vital and unsung role: as a remarkable 100 year old lady (who went with Eden to Yalta) recounted to me podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/h...

'The use of proxies would help significantly scale attacks against underwater infrastructure in relatively shallow waters, as well as prepare cover positions for strategic sabotage at great depths while denying Russian sponsorship', writes Oleksandr V Danylyuk in the latest RUSI Commentary.

Can't say this enough, but Comment is Freed is the best subscription you can buy if you're interested in politics (and there are a lot of good ones about). Great analysis, which I don't always agree with, but which I know has a lot of depth.

This is a fascinating article.

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social The narrative on the Ukraine war has shifted. There's still, though, an assumption that Putin can keep going because there won't be a decisive moment of defeat. But wars don't always work like that. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...

The UK is not ungovernable, and claiming that it is is a dereliction of responsibility. Government has serious deficiencies but we have also had a series of leaders who lack the skills to govern - my latest comment for @instituteforgovernment.org.uk www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/is-u...

I think Vernon Bogdanor writes the most sensible piece on the current political situation: www.ft.com/content/6f81...

Latest post looks at why Putin persist with a failed strategy against Ukraine, and why he needs Russia’s current, struggling offensive to succeed this year (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...?

My post on why prime ministers keep failing. And three big things that the next PM can change that will make their job easier. samf.substack.com/p/why-do-pri...

If this isn't "designed to stir up hatred" against Jews, what is? Why are the Met not arresting them?

It is astonishing* that Angela Rayner's tax affairs - in which the Standards Commissioner found her to have acted "in good faith", in an attempt to protect her disabled son - is STILL a bigger story than Farage trousering £5 million in secret or Tice's taxes. *It's not astonishing, but should be.

"I need the most on the nose statement of populism you have"

Labour should be clear about its values, while winning more transactional voters who don't share all Labour's values through governing well - particularly on the economy, public services and migration. Obviously that's easier said than done in the current economic and geopolitical environment.

Two theories on our high prime ministerial turnover...

All for what? Is Starmer a visionary, compelling pm? No Has government made mistakes? Yes Does it need more energy? Yes Are there other things it should be doing? Yes Has Britain been badly government since 2024? No Has it done some pretty good things? Yes Would the pretenders do better? I doubt it.

I would urge every follower I have who is interested in the future of America to read this article. @helenlewis.bsky.social www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...

WHEN WILL THE MEDIA COVER THESE STORIES? www.ft.com

"What is it about what their government has done or intends to do that can only be gotten rid of by getting rid of Keir Starmer? Unless they can answer that question, they should take a beat."

Do you work in the public sector and want to understand the role and impact of mis- and disinformation in extremism and radicalisation trends? Our recent webinar explored this very topic and you can now watch the recording from this insightful session.

An interesting lesson here about the advance & limits of battlefield transparency. In 1991 the US failed to hit a single Iraqi Scud missile, despite huge air/ground efforts. This time it hit a lot—but still only a fraction of the total. Sensing *over large areas* remains hard. From NYT report:

There are few more important decisions in politics than who should lead the government. Changing PM mid-term is a completely normal part of parliamentary government. Yet Labour has a process that is almost structurally designed to produce dither, dysfunction, panic and blind decision-making.

Stunningly good on Claude mythos and the long term technical debt of the internet finally being called in

Farage will always be a more convincing opponent of "the establishment" than a Labour minister. But he's an absurd opponent of tax dodgers, corrupt oligarchs, tech-bros, Trump, race-baiters, grifters & billionaires. He's in thrall to those people. So Labour needs to make THEM the dividing line...

The US and Iran now face an uncomfortable standoff as each seeks to outlast the economic and political fallout of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Join us online for our member exclusive webinar on 14 May where our panel of experts will discuss what the standoff means for global energy markets.

Some of the worst people in this country know exactly what they will do with a majority a quarter of that size, and they will not waste a moment doing it. The rest of us can only stand watching as you effectively hand it all over to them.

The biggest majority in the modern era, and terrified of your own shadow for two years. It beggars belief. I've never known any govt. to have less to lose, and never known a greater need for political honesty than now. But, hey, best stay cautious. You don't want to become unpopular do you?

Thought this was a model response from @celiarichardson.bsky.social to a pretty harsh article in the Spectator about the National Trust

How can the UK and other European countries balance public and private sector interests to achieve tech sovereignty? Join us on 20 May at 61 Whitehall to hear our distinguished panel of industry experts discuss this very question. A drinks and networking reception will be held after the event.

I've added a long update to my previous post on the exchange of proposals between US and Iran. The latest Iranian proposals shows how they have become more confident that Trump has boxed himself in and has no good options. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?

In at least three areas Europe and China’s interests align that harm Russia: preventing Putin from war with NATO, Russian de-industrialisation, and safeguarding NATO. Read the latest RUSI Commentary by Dr Justyna Szczudlik, Deputy Head of Research, Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM).

It’s remarkable in this day and age to hear a politician anywhere say the following: “Support for a diverse, rigorous and accessible body of historical scholarship should be a much greater priority for democratic governments even at a time of stretched budgets.“

Truly historic & moving scenes from the inaugural session of the Hungarian Parliament. A children’s tambura band from a tiny village playing a folk song often described as the unofficial Roma anthem. MPs were tearing up & so were many more of us watching. After all those years of hate. 🎥 telex.hu

Breaking news: Indiana University plant microbiologist Roger Innes has been locked out of his laboratory by the school in response to a request by one of his federal funders. The move comes after Innes complained about the government’s prosecution of Chinese postdocs. https://scim.ag/4tsDqRr

New post: "Seven things we learnt from the elections" We found out a lot about how multi-party politics is working in Britain over the last few days. I look at the implications for all the main parties + the broader challenges for our system. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/seven-thin...

ICYMI, I did: “the discovery of the camera …provides the first concrete evidence of spying on key military supply and logistics routes in Germany. Security agencies and the Bundeswehr have long been warning that Russia is preparing for a possible military escalation against NATO.”

Exactly. Plenty of time to prove they can't run local councils.

Trump’s chaotic messaging about a prospective peace deal and whether Epic Fury is really over continues. In this post I consider why a deal may be closer, because both sides need one, yet it remains elusive (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?