NEW RUSI Paper, ‘Reducing Global Reliance on Nuclear Deterrence’ by Lukasz Kulesa is out now! www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

New post just out: My 2025 audit - looking at what I got right and wrong this year. And picking out lessons to improve my commentary in 2026. (Free to read) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

"Sweden will soon have the capability to conduct deep strikes far behind enemy lines, as the Gripen will be integrated with the German-made Taurus cruise missile earlier than planned, the Swedish air chief said." @defensenews.bsky.social www.defensenews.com/global/europ...

Delighted to talk to Kori Shake about her excellent and timely new book, The State and the Soldier, about the history of civil-military relations in the US, when these relations are going through - to say the least - a testing time. (Free) samf.substack.com/p/the-state-...

Remarkable story of Aiden Aslin, 31, from Nottingham, fighting for Ukraine www.independent.co.uk/news/world/e...

New post out: @ldfreedman.bsky.social talks to @kschake.bsky.social - who's worked at senior levels in the US defense and state departments - on how the military should deal with Trump, Hegseth and illegal orders. (Free to read) samf.substack.com/p/the-state-...

My latest post looks at the battle for Kupyansk, where Ukraine has enjoyed some recent success, and its relevance to the narrative war between Russia and Ukraine. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?

Can Britain afford not to support Ukraine, risking a security environment with a triumphant Russia? Major Laurence Thomson explores this question below.

'To keep pace with the speed of modern battlefield innovation, NATO must treat drones not as finished products to be acquired but as evolving architectures to be mastered' writes Mirko Niederkofler in the latest RUSI Commentary.

Come and work for a PhD with us with our full Hans Rausing scholarships for students from anywhere in the world...

In the midst of everything going on this week, I wrote a thing for the Australian Policy & History blog on the ongoing impact of James Bond, even in Australia:

We're beyond peak Trump. So what comes next? open.substack.com/pub/davidaar...

Instead of too many people coming into the UK we will soon have too few. In his latest post Sam highlights how sharp the fall in numbers will be and how this will effect economic growth and key sectors such as social care. samf.substack.com/p/the-oversh...

Whenever I see a minister (or backbench Labour MP) give some weak response, I just want to scream the following at them: YOU ARE THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DAY WITH AN ENTIRE COMMS APPARATUS AT YOUR FINGERTIPS - USE THE BULLY PULPIT TO SAY “RACISM BAD.“ ALL DAY, EVERYDAY, ON EVERY AVAILABLE OUTLET

This is not a sign that Ukraine is winning the land war, but its an important sign that the doom laden narrative (ukraine has "no cards" Ukraine will collapse) is wrong. Watch out, this narrative is being used to try and convince Europeans that Ukraine must take a terrible deal.

Just sent out my free weekend update. Was quite a week in the land war, started with great doom for Ukraine and ended with the Ukrainians pushing the Russians away from Kupyansk and advancing in a week twice as much as the Russians advanced in 4 months. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

This winter in #Afghanistan, hunger is soaring. Food aid has collapsed. Clinics are closing. 1.1 million children are missing life-saving nutrition. We need restrictions on women humanitarians lifted immediately and the funding to do our work. My remarks: bit.ly/4q04OVx

What?

Latest post provides a critique of Trumps’ National Security Strategy, placing it in context of past NSS’s, and asks how seriously we should take it and how Europeans should respond. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?

How Britain can help Ukraine’s army without the US - and punish Russia My latest piece for @theipaper - my key point is at the end: the need for "strategic clarity," to be clear and explicit with Russia what happens if they break any ceasefire inews.co.uk/news/world/u...

New post out from @ldfreedman.bsky.social "The enemy within" On Trump's mad national security strategy, what it means in practice, and how Europe should respond. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/the-enemy-...

'The approach to political donations in the UK remains naïve and those ostensibly empowered to police the system are underpowered' writes Neil Barnett.

My new article! "NKVD Plan to Undermine the Catholic Church in Lithuania in 1941" Based on my ongoing research of #NKVD/#MGB/#KGB files at Hoover Library & Archives! @socintelhist.bsky.social @hooverinstitution.bsky.social The link: tinyurl.com/2ah69ze6

🇺🇸 attempts to force 🇺🇦 surrender are currently 0 from 3. Europe is winning, even if it doesn't realise. Trump's national security strategy exposes weakness. Its attitude to Europe is like the obsessive ex stalking the former partner, wondering who that new guy is. open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...

Today’s campaigns against the BBC, from Donald Trump to The Daily Telegraph, have a surprisingly long history. In our latest article, David Nowell Smith explores how commercial rivalries inspired the first accusations of left-wing bias at the BBC.

Prime Minister of Poland. 🇵🇱

Have to admit, a bit nostalgic for one of these (the one with the heaviest bass). . .

Trump wants to move to next stage of Gaza peace plan. Key issue is the formation of the International Stabilisation Force, which Israel demands must fully disarm Hamas but to which no one will contribute if asked to try. All in new post (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/what-happe...

☠️ The Economist: Russia lost 1% of its pre-war male population in Ukraine. In total, Russian losses in dead and wounded amounted to between 1 million and 1.35 million soldiers. Over the past three years, Russia has been able to occupy an additional 1.45% of Ukrainian territory.

'Russia’s destruction of Ukraine continues because Ukraine is under-supported, while Russia remains overprotected' write Ariana Gic, Marko Mikhelson and Roman Sohn.

New post just out: A discussion with Nobel prize winner Richard Thaler on behavioural economics, nudging, organ donations, Bitcoin, mental accounting and much more... (Free to read) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

📕 🎄 📘 I am grateful to Walter Landgraf for including #WatchingTheJackals on this year’s @warontherocks.bsky.social Holiday Reading List. It means a great deal to have the story recognised alongside such an impressive list of titles 👉 shorturl.at/fc6l1 🙏 to the GUP team & editors for their support

'Russian strategic planners understand that history can divide allies. Poland’s critical role within NATO and as Ukraine’s main logistical corridor makes it an ideal target for manipulation' writes Floris van Berckel Smit in the latest RUSI Commentary.

I spoke to @gordoncorera.bsky.social for #Radio4's "Currently", about #Russia's use of #criminal gangs in its #covert activities. It features the excellent @drichterova.bsky.social, Dominic Murphy and others. Worth a listen. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/... @cfs-rusi.bsky.social @soc-ace.bsky.social

RIP the greatest British playwright of our time on.ft.com/4anfEQJ

Sorry to hear about the death of Tom Stoppard, a truly great playwright. I have memories connected with all his plays, beginning with Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead which i saw at the NT with John Stride and Edward Petherbridge. Also Hordern/Rigg in Jumpers . . could go on but run out of...

How future generations will remember Pete Hagueseth:

It's Black Friday. You might as well pre-order the first mainstream published version of the Church Committee Report. Abridged to its most essential findings, this 1975 report reads like the very best investigative journalism mixed with a spy novel covering assassinations, surveillance, sabotage.

NEW: The New York Times got a State Dept. cable telling diplomats to destroy visas that had been approved and printed to give to Afghans. And diplomats are told to do scheduled interviews but not grant visas. US shuts all legal entry routes for Afghans. Our story: www.nytimes.com/2025/11/28/u...

CSE Chief Caroline Xavier interviewed by Wesley Wark thewalrus.ca/canada-fight...

Excellent piece as usual. This observation about constraining domestic consumption to increase investment - and the vicious politics of that - is particularly important. It is manifestly not grasped by many - including, concerningly, government ministers.

A vicious, orchestrated, and unchecked campaign of violence by weak men against women and girls is raging like wild fire.   As we start 16 Days of Activism, we must stand with survivors, with partners supporting them, and hold perpetrators to account. #16Days

New post just out: "MAGA Meltdown?" With Trump's approval ratings collapsing the Republicans are starting to realise they're in serious trouble. Here's why it's going to get worse for them. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/m...

This is so important. People who study international relations love to fight over whether interests or values define relationships. It is both. An interest is something you define. And your values come into the equation. It is not either or.

I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture. They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1

Fiona Hill, geopolitical strategist: 'The US is giving Russia tremendous influence over Europe' www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...

Essential reading, and an antidote to complete depression!

European sycophancy towards Trump has won very little. it has telegraphed weakness and invited more punches. Interesting to compare the respect he shows those who stand up to him rather than the repeated, escalating humiliation he dishes out to Europe. on.ft.com/4prynPF