It appears we aren't getting the Defence Investment Plan today, and it is back to being published 'soon'! Either way, there are some things to look out for and traps to avoid. 🧵

An important point made here by @justin-br0nk.bsky.social: combat power isn't power if you don't have the weapons. One area upon which to judge the Defence Investment Plan (whenever it appears) would be to see what it says about munition types and quantities.

💬 "Intelligence was the bedrock of Epic Fury’s short-term success, yet the impact of intelligence on US policy appears to remain limited". ✍️ Comments with @mtsavill.bsky.social for @rusi.bsky.social on US intelligence and the #Iran War. @nottspolitics.bsky.social www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

Despite intelligence dominance in the war with Iran, events suggest the US intelligence community is having little influence on White House decision-making. Read the latest RUSI Commentary by Dan Lomas (@sandbaggerone.bsky.social) and @mtsavill.bsky.social.

As the week wraps up, so does a chapter of GSB. Through the series, Dr Neil Melvin has scrutinised key security shifts since 2021, and in his final episode, he speaks with @shelter-jones.bsky.social on shifting geopolitics across Europe, the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Tune in: https://bit.ly/42C0ja4

'The use of proxies would help significantly scale attacks against underwater infrastructure in relatively shallow waters, as well as prepare cover positions for strategic sabotage at great depths while denying Russian sponsorship', writes Oleksandr V Danylyuk in the latest RUSI Commentary.

While you are trying to work out if US and Iranian forces firing at one another means the ‘ceasefire’ is still in effect, read this and consider the challenges both face in achieving their objectives.

"All below the threshold of restarting major combat operations" is such a ridiculous thing to say

Listen to @mtsavill.bsky.social discuss the Iran ceasefire on BBC Radio 5 Live with Nicky Campbell. Full episode available here: https://bbc.in/41hBuzA

'If there is less confidence that the US would come to Europe's aid in the event of future war, then that does affect deterrence of Russia and indeed others.' Watch @mtsavill.bsky.social interview with The Sun.

When the Chief of the General Staff announced at the RUSI Land Warfare Conference that the Army would ‘triple its lethality’ I was sceptical this was measurable. Here, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds argue that it can and recommend how to do so.

Good explainer article on what the MEUs are and what they can (and probably cannot) do today from @taskandpurpose.com Featuring quotes by @spettyjohn.bsky.social and me👇 taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics...

'It is . . . unclear why the UK should divert scarce resources from Europe that would neither be decisive nor influence a mercurial US Administration that does not need them.' writes @mtsavill.bsky.social in the latest RUSI Commentary.

Throughout the week we've sat down with some of our researchers to capture their insights as the conflict in Iran develops. We have now distilled these conversations into a single video for you. For excerpts from each interview see the below thread. www.rusi.org/news-and-com...

An attempt by me to summarise the impact of Israeli and US operations on Iran's capabilities, with thanks to Times radio for having me on. youtu.be/9NCBTxmY-8w?...

New research by Dr Sidharth Kaushal argues Europe must use conventional prompt strike to degrade Moscow’s missile defences or risk the credibility of Britain and France’s nuclear deterrents.

In this bonus episode of Global Security Briefing you can hear from Dr Neil Melvin, Dr Maryna Vorotnyuk, @mtsavill.bsky.social and Dr Jonathan Eyal on the prospects for peace, four years on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Listen to the episode: https://bit.ly/4tTHfR3

Earlier today Dr Neil Melvin, Dr Maryna Vorotnyuk, @mtsavill.bsky.social & Dr Jonathan Eyal gathered at RUSI HQ to mark the 4 year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Watch the recording; https://bit.ly/3OLHDkp Not a RUSI Member? Join today: https://my.rusi.org/membership.html

Comments from me based on my experience with security clearances (and working in vetting a lifetime ago!).

What are the takeaways from MSC for Germany, UK, Poland, and France? @rikefranke.bsky.social, @mtsavill.bsky.social, @susmonika.bsky.social & yours truly:

Given budgetary constraints in the UK and France, I expect more stories like this going forward. www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion, what are Ukraine's prospects for peace? Join Maryna Vorotnyuk, Neil Melvin, @mtsavill.bsky.social and Jonathan Eyal on 24 February for an insightful discussion as we mark the anniversary. Not a Member? Join today: https://my.rusi.org/membership.html

'they [the US] could go after the centres of military power, including Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and maybe the militias that are suppressing the protesters' @mtsavill.bsky.social quoted in the below BBC article.

A few comments from me here. The headline is that the choice of targets and how much the US can strike are both growing, but the question is what can realistically be achieved, especially if President Trump wants both 'decisive' and 'short'. How brittle is the regime? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

A good list, and pleasing to see Jack Watling’s ‘Arms of the Future’ recommended.

'Most governments do not disclose offensive cyber operations. Boasting about capabilities is not the usual game' writes @lmhurel.bsky.social in the latest RUSI Commentary.

A powerful story from @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social last night, adding details on the human impact of the Iranian regime's behaviour.

🎙️Tune in to the latest Talking Strategy episode, where we explore how Western nations are evolving their strategies - from historic Cold War approaches to today’s cutting-edge innovations in technology and defence: https://bit.ly/4pjXumN

🚨📅Join us this Friday for an in-depth webinar exploring the future of Venezuela. Our experts will analyse the regime’s trajectory and the pivotal role of external actors. Open to all RUSI members.

An important update on previous work, to highlight that the air superiority that underpins so much of Western military power (see recent highly successful operations!) is increasingly challenged.

Start your week by looking at this; given the initial statements from the US Administration, there must be some doubt as to whether there is even a plan for a transition to democracy, let alone how feasible it will be.

NEW RUSI Paper, ‘Reducing Global Reliance on Nuclear Deterrence’ by Lukasz Kulesa is out now! www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

🎄Merry Christmas from all of us at RUSI!

Detailed but important analysis, with lessons for NATO and integrated air and missile defence planners.

🎙️Gen. Robinson brings her military expertise to the Talking Strategy podcast, offering valuable insights that shape foreign policy and drive innovative strategic thinking. 🎧Listen here: https://bit.ly/4i6uUn3

#HIRING We are seeking a Senior Research Fellow! The role will focus on Russian and Eurasian issues, delivering research projects and enhancing our profile in this critical area. Interested? Apply now or share with your network: https://bit.ly/3LOmeFJ

Important research given the current state of the war, and the lessons that are being drawn - perhaps erroneously - about the future of manoeuvre, armoured vehicles and the mix of weapons and capabilities needed to survive and succeed on the modern battlefield.

'Overall we're slightly creaking at the seams.' @mtsavill.bsky.social explains that despite higher spending and strong support for Ukraine, the UK’s military still faces serious capability and readiness gaps. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...

'The security environment is not great at the moment. There is a major industrial war on our doorstep.' @mtsavill.bsky.social explains why the UK's armed forces had been 'hollowed out' in previous decades, from our podcast on defence spending. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/end...

🚨🧵New RUSI report, ‘UK National Security Advantage from Disruptive Technologies’ by @piahuesch.bsky.social and @tashbuckley.bsky.social is out now!

Detailed analysis of the kind of targets in scope if (a big 'if') the US provides Tomahawk to Ukraine. But my (admittedly superficial) view is that achieving an impact on the 'front line' will be hard, primarily because it's doubtful the US would provide the volume required.

A key question going into winter is how focused and intense Russia’s strike campaign will be — against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, defense industry, military sites, and civilians — and how well Ukraine can defend against it. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/05/w... via @NYTimes

Are environmental, social and governance standards really the barrier to defence companies' ability to raise capital and invest as they are often made out to be? Dr Linus Terhorst examines the veracity of such claims in his latest report on the real factors that stall defence growth.📖 bit.ly/4gP93zM

Former PM of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk took to the stage at RUSI today to warn that Putin seeks to divide the US and Europe and weaken NATO and the EU, to ultimately pave the way for a China-led global order. RUSI Members can watch the event in full: bit.ly/42ZTqjc

'US officials should consider whether another year of New START limits, without verification of Russian strategic forces, is satisfactory' writes @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, Senior Nuclear Fellow at the Center for Nuclear Security Policy, MIT, in the latest RUSI Commentary.

It would be easy in Europe to dismiss this week’s display at Quantico as purely political theatre. But that would be a mistake.

Thank you @cnn.com for having me on to assess the Quantico disgrace

Some thoughts on Ukraine for Times Radio recorded before the weekend, but I think still valid this week. youtu.be/f3BW6bbhxWA?...

🚨 Applications now open for the UK Cyber Effects Network Fellowship Programme! Early-career professionals, don't miss this chance to deepen your knowledge of offensive cyber operations. Submit your application now. (Only open to NATO member citizens)